Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Ukrainian President Yushchenko Declares Democratic Sovereignty

WASHINGTON, DC -- Amid domestic political turmoil and neighboring geopolitical conflict, speaking through a translator, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko addressed the country’s future plans for an independent and democratic Ukraine.

Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko in Washington

Nearly two weeks ago, Ukraine’s ruling coalition collapsed, and last year at this time the parliamentary elections put in place an ‘orange’ coalition featuring an alliance between the Yushchenko’s party and the party of Prime Minister Julia Temeshinko.

The recent Russian-Georgian conflict has caused international tension between Ukraine and Russia over the fact that Ukraine hosts Russia’s Black Sea fleet and the transportation of energy supplies between Russia and Europe.

In the context of the Russian-Georgian conflict and pro-Russian forces active in the Crimean area, Yushchenko said that he is ready to fight and protect his sovereign nation and determine it’s own defense and security policy.

He strongly confirmed that his territory would never be used for any country to deploy nuclear weapons. Addressing the fears of communist presence in the government, Yushchenko did not understand how Prime Minister Temeshinko made their top partnership with communists because, he said, “there are no Ukrainian communists.

These communists always represented interests of a different country.”

Yushchenko confirmed his support of NATO, saying it is “the best model to guarantee security in the (Ukraine’s) international coordinates”.

The President continued to declare his plan for a democratic Ukraine and integration into the European Union under the Association Agreement.

The Association Agreements would include a free trade area and a start to negotiations of visa free access between the EU and Ukraine.

Source: Talk Radio News

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Yushchenko Plays Down Rift In Government

WASHINGTON, DC -- Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko played down the political rift in his country's Parliament, saying during a meeting with US President George W Bush that Ukrainian democracy is strong enough to survive the uncertainty.

U.S. President George Bush (R) and Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko at a press conference of Monday, Sep. 29.

"We also discussed the domestic political situation in Ukraine, which in my opinion is far away from being tragic, and not dramatic," Yushchenko said at the White House.

"Ukraine has enough democratic resources and tools to give sufficient response to any crisis that may occur in the Ukrainian Parliament."

The coalition between Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's bloc came apart earlier this month, mainly over disagreements between the two leader over Russia's invasion of Georgia.

Yushchenko has advocated pro-Western policies, while Tymoshenko sees Russia as playing a more important role in Ukraine's future and is trying to build a new coalition with pro-Russian parties. Failure to form a new government could bring elections as early as December.

Bush and Yushchenko also discussed energy issues and Ukraine's desire to join the NATO alliance. NATO earlier this year agreed to put Ukraine on the path to membership.

Source: DPA

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Monday, September 29, 2008

Somali Pirates Surrounded

MOGADISHU, Somalia -- As a heavily armed US destroyer patrolled nearby and planes flew overhead yesterday, a Somali pirate spokesman told The Associated Press his group was demanding a $20 million ransom to release a cargo ship loaded with Russian tanks.

A Somali gunman south of Mogadishu. Somali pirates who hijacked a Ukrainian freighter carrying military weapons defiantly demanded 20 million dollars in ransom despite being surrounded by three foreign warships on Sunday.

The spokesman also warned that the pirates would fight to the death if any country tried military action to regain the ship, and a man who said he was the ship’s captain reported that one crew member had died.

Pirates seized the Ukrainian-operated ship Faina off the coast of Somalia on Thursday as it headed to Kenya carrying 33 Russian-built T-72 tanks and a substantial amount of ammunition and spare parts. The ordnance was ordered by the Kenyan government.

The guided missile destroyer USS Howard was stationed off the Somali coast yesterday, making sure that the pirates did not remove the tanks, ammunition and other heavy weapons from the ship, which was anchored off the coast. A spokesman for the US 5th Fleet said the navy remained “deeply concerned” over the fate of the ship’s 21-member crew and cargo.

In a rare gesture of cooperation, the Americans appeared to be keeping an eye on the Faina until the Russian missile frigate Neustrashimy, or Intrepid, reaches the area. The Russian ship was still in the Atlantic yesterday, the Russian Navy reported.

Pirate spokesman Sugule Ali said he was speaking from the deck of the Faina via a satellite phone — and verified his location by handing the phone over to the ship’s captain, who also spoke with the AP. It was not possible to further confirm their identities.

“We want ransom, nothing else. We need $20 million for the safe release of the ship and the crew,” Ali said, adding that “if we are attacked, we will defend ourselves until the last one of us dies.”

Five nations have been sharing information to try to secure the swift release of the ship and its crew — Ukraine, Somalia, Russia, the United States and Britain.

Kenyan government spokesman Alfred Mutua, however, insisted his country will not negotiate with pirates or terrorists. Ali said planes have been flying over the Faina. It was not known which country the planes belonged to.

Source: AP

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Sunday, September 28, 2008

Former U.S. Ambassador Pifer: Ukraine Has 'Zero' Chance To Advance In NATO If Snap Election Called

KIEV, Ukraine -- Former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer does not think that Ukraine will join the NATO Membership Action Plan in December if early parliamentary elections are called in the country.

Steven Pifer

"I must say that if the Verkhovna Rada gets dissolved in October and snap parliamentary elections are called, a chance that Ukraine will obtain the MAP in December equals to zero," Pifer, ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000, commented.

Pifer also thinks it is possible that Ukraine will join the MAP only formally in the event Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych becomes the prime minister.

Pfeiffer said that Yanukovych, as prime minister, did not support Ukraine's accession to the MAP but, nonetheless, concrete joint projects of Ukraine and NATO were moved forward.

As Ukrainian News earlier reported, on April 3, the NATO summit in Bucharest (Romania) postponed consideration of Ukraine's and Georgia's accession to the MAP until December.

President Victor Yuschenko hopes that NATO member-countries will support a decision to invite Ukraine to join the MAP in December because of the conflict in Georgia.

Steven Pifer, the third U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, is a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Source: Kyiv Post

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US Warship Now Shadowing Pirated Freighter

MOGADISHU, Somalia -- A U.S. destroyer off the coast of Somalia closed in Saturday on a hijacked Ukrainian ship loaded with tanks and ammunition, watching it to ensure the pirates who seized it do not try to remove any cargo or crew.

The USS Howard, a destroyer, was reported to be close by the hijacked Ukrainian ship, which is carrying war materiel.

As Russian and American ships pursued the hijackers of the Ukrainian-operated vessel, pirates seized another ship off Somalia's coast, an international anti-piracy group said.

The Greek tanker with a crew of 19 is carrying refined petroleum from Europe to the Middle East. It was ambushed Friday in the Gulf of Aden, said Noel Choong, who heads the International Maritime Bureau's piracy reporting center based in Malaysia. He said pirates chased and fired at the ship before boarding it.

In Somalia, a man claiming to be spokesman of the pirates holding the Ukrainian ship said the hijackers want $35 million to release the vessel. But there was no way to immediately verify his claim that he represented the pirates.

On Thursday, pirates seized the Ukrainian ship Faina en route to Kenya with 33 Russian-built T-72 tanks and a substantial quantity of ammunition and spare parts. Russia's navy said Friday that it had dispatched a warship to the area, and the United States said American naval ships were tracking the Ukrainian ship with special concern because of the weaponry on board.

The hijackings were the latest in a series of audacious maritime attacks off the coast of Somalia, a war-torn country that has been without a functioning government since 1991.

The destroyer USS Howard is pursuing the hijacked Ukrainian vessel and is now within a few thousand yards of it.

The USS Howard's Web site says it is equipped for combat operations at sea with surface-to-air missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles, antisubmarine rockets, torpedoes and a five-inch rapid-fire deck gun.

Kenyan government spokesman Alfred Mutua said the Faina had not yet docked at any port and was still at sea.

Kenya "is not aware of any credible (ransom) demand being made," Mutua said in statement on his Web site. He said Kenya "does not and will not negotiate with international criminals, pirates and terrorists."

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said the Kenyan Defense Department was using its contacts to try to resolve the problem. It said Kenyan authorities were sharing information with Somalia, Ukraine, Russia, the U.S. and Britain in an effort to secure the swift release of the ship and its crew.

A man who spoke to the Associated Press in Somalia by telephone and claimed to be a spokesman for the pirates said they were seeking a ransom.
"We want the Kenyan government to negotiate with us about a $35 million ransom we want for the release of the ship and the cargo without any other intervention," said the man, who identified himself as Ali Yare Abdulkadir.

"If not, we will do what we can and offload the small arms and take them away."

Abdulkadir, who local residents in the northeastern Somali region of Puntland said represented the pirates, declined to reveal his whereabouts. He said the ship is somewhere along Somalia's northeastern coast and warned against any military action to liberate it.

"Anyone who tries it will be responsible for the consequences," Abdulkadir said.

A Russian Web site posted what it said was an audio recording of a telephone conversation with the Ukrainian ship's first mate. He said the hijackers are seeking a ransom and have anchored close to the Somali shore.

Source: Arizona Star

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Ukraine-Russia Tensions Rise In Crimea

SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine -- Skimming the Black Sea aboard a military motorboat, Russian navy spokesman Igor Dygalo turned to an entourage of television cameras. "The dirty ones, those are the Ukrainian ships," he said with a light smirk. "The clean ones are Russian."

Russian sailor in Sevastopol, Ukraine.

Against a backdrop of simmering tensions, Dygalo led journalists on an unusual wide-ranging visit to Russia's Black Sea Fleet this month, complete with unprecedented access to the flagship Moskva, a guided missile cruiser.

The public relations tour came just as the strategically crucial Russian base here finds itself at the epicenter of an escalating political clash.

Alarmed by Russia's recent war in Georgia, the Ukrainian government has imposed new restrictions on the Russian ships' movements, and suggested raising the rent for the fleet.

The Ukrainian president has called the surrounding Crimean Peninsula -- historically a part of Russia and still home to a majority Russian population -- the most dangerous spot in the country because of separatist sentiment.

Russia has responded with icy vows to beef up its military forces in the Black Sea, eagerly showing off to reporters the firepower aboard vessels that were used to blockade Georgia -- and to remind the world of the deep Russian roots in this restive Ukrainian region.

"The military budget will be revisited so that we can exploit these ships better and build new ships," said Dygalo, aboard the Moskva. "The attitude toward the international situation has changed, of course. We understand quite well that Russia came under pressure."

Tensions have been climbing in this sleepy port since the fighting in Georgia brought into sharp focus two clashing interests: Russia's determination to take on a greater role in the former Soviet states, and the Ukrainian government's determination to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The war in Georgia pitted a Western-friendly government against Moscow; meanwhile, Ukraine is painfully divided in loyalties to the West and Russia.

Crimea is Russian-friendly turf. Former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev gave the peninsula to Ukraine back when the shared flag made the distinction between the two countries relatively unimportant.

Today, many residents of Crimea say they are Russian first, Ukrainian second. They vehemently oppose Ukraine's bid to join NATO, bristle over anti-Moscow rhetoric from national leaders and say they are embittered by government efforts to infuse Crimea with Ukrainian language and culture.

Because of Crimea's staunch pro-Russia sentiments, analysts warn that the country could break apart if politicians in Kiev continue their push toward NATO and the West.

"Most threats from Ukraine don't come from outside, but from inside," said Vladimir Kornilov, a political scientist in Kiev. "Ukraine is living on its own volcano."

Critics accuse the Black Sea Fleet of deliberately exacerbating the tension.

"All the anti-Ukrainian, pro-Russia blocs are closely tied to the Black Sea Fleet," said Miroslav Mamchak, the snowy-haired chief of a group called the Ukrainian Community of Sevastopol. "They struggle against the Ukrainian language. They support the separatists."

Mamchak is a rare voice of Ukrainian nationalism here. He says that he has received death threats, and that Russian loyalists plastered the town with his picture under the slogan, "I'm a traitor to Russia."

Black Sea Fleet officials deny any political tampering. But many Ukrainians worry that Moscow is stealthily working to stir up separatist sentiment. There have been reports that Russia has quietly begun to grant passports to some residents; Russian officials say it's not true.

Powerful Moscow Mayor Yuri M. Luzhkov, who has been banned from Ukraine for his rhetoric on Crimea, has said the region "doesn't belong" to Ukraine.

Moscow and Sevastopol have long had close ties, and the Moscow city government has built schools and apartments in the Ukrainian city. One opulent school is decorated with stained glass depictions of Moscow, and a university is affiliated with Moscow State University.

Pro-Moscow residents regard Mamchak's political organization as part of a Kiev-backed effort at "ethnocide."

Many people here complain about the mandatory teaching of the Ukrainian language in schools and its use in the media and for government paperwork. Pro-Russia leaders also accuse the Ukrainian government of slowly moving people into the region from other parts of the country and installing pro-Kiev leaders in the city government.

"Faster, faster, faster to make everybody a Ukrainian," said Raisa Telyatnikova, head of the Russian Community of Sevastopol. "They want to completely distance us from our historical motherland, Russia, and turn it into an alien state. . . . They want to change the ethnic composition and break the spirit of Sevastopol."

With its clusters of war memorials and Soviet awards from Vladimir I. Lenin still adorning the walls of the town hall, today's Sevastopol has the feel of a living monument to the U.S.S.R., or at least to the power of Moscow. Russian flags flutter throughout the city, a statue of Catherine the Great looms on the main street and Russian is heard on most every corner. Bookstores stock a paltry number of Ukrainian titles. "It's only the language of state business," one bookseller said with a shrug.

Despite the fleet's warm ties with the locals, politicians in Kiev have made it plain that the Russian navy could be asked to leave after its lease expires in 2017.

Russia, however, has other ideas. The fleet's presence here is woven into history, Russian military officials say. The ships will stay put, and multiply, they have said repeatedly.

"Nothing prevents us from building up our forces here in Ukrainian territory," said Rear Adm. Andrei Baranov, the fleet's deputy chief of staff. "The fleet will be renovated. . . . New ships will be arriving here."

On the grounds of St. Nicholas the Sanctifier Church, the bones of an estimated 60,000 Russian fighters, casualties of the Crimean War in the 19th century and World War II, lie in a vast, quiet cemetery that rolls downhill toward the sea. On the steps of the sanctuary, priests spoke of their emotional ties to generations of sailors and of their unwillingness to hoist a Ukrainian flag.

In a scene that seemed cut from tsarist times, Russian navy officials and Orthodox priests sat at a long table, knocking back shots of vodka and proclaiming emotional toasts.

"The West shuddered 150 years ago when Russia showed its sword, and the Black Sea turned red with blood," said Igor Bebin, a pink-robed priest who rose to his feet, vodka glass held high.

"That was the supreme truth. And the truth is that now, for the first time, the sword of Russia is shining again. Be afraid of the sword."

The Russians cheered, and took a deep drink.

Source: Los Angeles Times

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Saturday, September 27, 2008

Pirates' Demand Now $5M For Weapons Vessel

MOGADISHU, Somalia -- The ransom for the safe return of a Ukrainian vessel loaded with weapons and tanks that was seized by pirates is now at $5 million, an official says.

Somali pirates have lowered ransom demands from $35 million to $5 million for the release of a Ukrainian freighter carrying a shipment of tanks and grenade launchers.

Andrew Mwangura of the Kenya Seafarers Association said while pirates initially asked for $35 million for the vessel's safe return, they lowered their demand significantly due to the secondhand nature of the weapons and the fact the vessel's crew is not from the United States, CNN reported Saturday.

The Faina was seized by the pirates in the Gulf of Aden Thursday as the ship was traveling from Ukraine to the Kenyan port of Mombasa, a Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman says.

The ministry has confirmed the ship was carrying 33 tanks and tank artillery shells, along with small arms and grenade launchers.

The ransom demand comes as a growing number of ships in the gulf have been targeted by pirates.

The International Maritime Bureau's Piracy Reporting Center in Malaysia told The Washington Post Saturday that 17 of the 61 reported pirate attacks in the region have happened in the first two weeks of September, compared to 13 pirate attacks in all of 2007.

Source: UPI

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From Barrie To Kiev With Love

KIEV, Ukraine -- Mikhail Bulgakov's statue sits rather glumly, arms crossed, halfway down the Andriyivsky Descent, a winding cobblestone street that leads from the city's upper town to Podil, the vibrant district often described as "Kiev's Montmartre."

Mikhail Bulgakov

Bulgakov, the Kiev-born playwright, author and doctor best known for his novel The Master and the Margarita, had plenty of reason to be disconsolate during his lifetime when his satires were banned in the Soviet Union.

But the great writer's statue should no longer look so downcast. He sits outside his old home at No. 13, which is now the charming Bulgakov Museum, and across the street from him, behind street vendors selling traditional Ukrainian embroidered shirts, matryoshka dolls and Soviet and Nazi memorabilia, is the celebrated Kiev Drama Theatre on Podil, home to the Bulgakov International Art Festival.

The seventh edition of the festival begins on Monday in Kiev - and, for the first time, a Canadian company is taking part.

Talk Is Free Theatre (TIFT) from Barrie, Ont., is the only North American participant in this year's Bulgakov love-in. The company will be presenting excerpts of their English-language production of Bulgakov's early 1930s play Molière, or League of Hypocrites, directed by Aleksandar Lukac. The seven-year-old company was invited by Kiev Drama Theatre on Podil's artistic director Vitaly Malakhov just a few months ago.

"I just got an e-mail out of the blue that I thought was a scam at first," says Arkady Spivak, TIFT's artistic producer. "They were wondering if our 2005 production was still running."

In continental Europe, theatre companies will often run the same shows in repertoire for years, or even decades, as opposed to weeks or months as in North America. "I remembered from my childhood days that this is how they do things there," says Spivak, who was born in Moscow and immigrated to Canada with his mother in 1990. "And it's all done at the last minute."

This year's festival's theme is "Poet and Government," a topic that Molière tackles head on.

The play imagines the relationship between France's most famous playwright and Louis XIV and the battle they found over Molière's religious satire Tartuffe. But Molière (sometimes performed under the title The Cabal of Hypocrites) is usually interpreted as really being about Bulgakov's complex relationship with Stalin.

Bulgakov had early success under Stalin. In 1928, he had three plays running in Moscow at three different theatres; one of them, The Day of the Turbins, his adaptation of his first novel The White Guard, was hailed as "a new Seagull" - a flattering reference to play by Anton Chekhov, another doctor-turned-writer from Ukraine.

At the time, Stalin was one of Bulgakov's biggest fans. The dictator supposedly saw Day of the Turbins at least 15 times.

But soon, Bulgakov was tagged as a subversive and his plays were censored, banned or, in the case of Molière, relegated to a peculiar type of Stalinist "development hell." The Moscow Art Theatre, under the directorship of the famed Constantin Stanislavski, rehearsed Molière for four years, but it was then performed in public only a handful of times.

"At least Tartuffe ran 300 performances before it was banned - but Bulgakov's play about Tartuffe only ran seven times," says Spivak.

While Bulgakov managed to escape the more gruesome fates of other writers deemed to be anti-Soviet in the Gulag, he descended into fits of paranoia while writing in secret and died in 1940. "He didn't perish in concentration camps," says Spivak, "but he was mortally wounded psychologically."

Born in Kiev to Russian parents in 1891, Bulgakov may be the city's most internationally famous literary son, but he is not universally loved in the independent Ukraine. He immortalized the streets and squares of the Ukrainian capital during the Russian civil war in his novel The White Guard, but he wrote in Russian and did not hold particularly sympathetic views towards the Ukrainian language or the idea of a Ukrainian republic.

Think of him as to Ukraine what Mordecai Richler is to Quebec and you get some idea of his iconoclastic status.

Malakhov, one of Ukraine's most famous directors and actors, created the festival dedicated to the writer seven years ago, modelling it after a festival in Seville, Spain, dedicated to Cervantes.

"Bulgakov is one of the world's most famous writers and he is a Kiev writer," says Malakhov, drinking tea in a café near the city's main drag, Kreschatik Street, his long grey hair pulled into a ponytail under a baseball cap. "I was surprised that no one had started the festival before us."

But is Bulgakhov, who spent most of his career in Moscow, to be celebrated as a Ukrainian writer or a Russian writer? It's a question that has re-emerged since Ukraine's independence, and one furiously debated among Malakhov's theatrical colleagues.

Many famous writers typically thought of as Russian were born in what is now Ukraine, including Gogol and Chekhov, and many Ukrainian nationalists are trying to reclaim them, especially in light of renewed tensions between Russia and its neighbours.

"The problem is that before 1990 we were all thought of as Russian," says Malakhov, who speaks the colloquial mix of Ukrainian and Russian heard throughout Kiev known as surzhik. (It's like the Chiac spoken in New Brunswick, or Frenglish spoken in Montreal.) In a recent poll of Russians, Bulgakov was named the country's second best writer, while in similar poll of Ukrainians, he was named the third greatest Ukrainian writer. For Malakhov, however, Bulgakov's identity is simple: "He is a Kievite."

Igor Volkov, an actor being directed by Malakhov in the festival, prefers to emphasize Bulgakov's universality over such disputes.

"Bulgakov's work unites people from different parts of the world and people with different political views," Volkov says.

Indeed, in addition to Canadians, Scandinavians and Brits, the three-day Bulgakov festival is bringing in artists from Georgia and Russia, two countries that just fought a war over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. (In fact, there is even an actor from South Ossetia taking part in the festival.) The relationship between "the poet and the government" has changed a great deal since the Soviet days in Ukraine and since 2004's Orange Revolution. But are things really better for artists? "In principle, yes," says Malakhov, using a popular equivocal Ukrainian expression.

While Ukraine is now a country free of censorship, the arts are not funded as much as they were in Soviet days. "Ukrainian theatre is much more democratic than that in Russia or Belarus," explains Malakhov.

"But in Russia, the government gives much more to the theatre, because of the propaganda it espouses."

Malakhov can't complain too much about funding: The Ukrainian government is sponsoring his Bulgakov festival. And a brand-new theatre is being built in Podil to house his theatre company and allow for the festival to expand. It's the first new theatre to be built in Kiev in 100 years.

But Malakhov fears playwrights, directors and actors aren't as motivated as they were in Soviet times.

Would Bulgakov have written Molière without his battles with Stalin? The Master and the Margarita, a Soviet satire about Satan visiting Moscow that inspired the Rolling Stones song Sympathy for the Devil, likely wouldn't have been penned in a democratic country.

"Oppression gives the artists energy because usually artists like to fight for their integrity," Malahkov says.

Bulgakov's plays resonate differently in Canada, where the population hasn't experienced the same kind of censorship or oppression - which may account for why his satirical plays aren't as often produced as those by earlier Russian-language writers like Chekhov, Gogol or Turgenev. "We didn't have to live through any of the stuff that informed Molière [the play]," Spivak says.

Nonetheless, Spivak is looking forward to bringing his company's English-language Canadian spin on one of Bulgakov's plays to the author's place of birth. "It's kind of a daring act to take their own playwright to them," he says. "It's almost like I'm bringing them their own present. You know how sometimes you get a gift, forget who gave it to you, and then you re-gift it to them?"

Source: Globe and Mail

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Poland And Ukraine Escape With A Telling Off

BORDEAUX, France -- The only surprising thing about the much-anticipated UEFA executive meeting in Bordeaux was that the press was kept waiting. Still there are worse places to hang around than the grand surroundings of the Regents Hotel in the Place de la Comedie.

UEFA chief Michel Platini

A press conference meant to start at 12:15 French time did not begin until 14:45, leading to much speculation that contrary to expectations, UEFA might have decided to move Euro 2012 from Poland and Ukraine, after all.

But in the end, the briefings proved accurate. As predicted. Ukraine and Poland were given a bit of a telling off, not even a yellow card.

It could be argued that UEFA has threatened the two countries with a possible red card in the future.

It said: "Host countries must continue to make the necessary efforts as any slackening could put in doubt the organisation of this tournament in these countries.'

But actually UEFA is unlikely to ever wave this red card. While giving a warning to Ukraine and Poland, it also reconfirms UEFA's commitment to organize the European Championship in 2012 in Poland and Ukraine.

In the overall scale of potential tournament removals, the two Eastern European countries losing the Euros is less likely than South Africa losing the 2010 World Cup. And they are not as close as Athens was to losing the 2004 Olympics, when the then IOC President Juan Antonio Samaranch waved his famous yellow card for Athens tardy progress.

What is likely to happen is that UEFA may cut down the number of cities that will host the games and be very severe on the state and quality of the stadia. Central to its plans is that the two capital cities, Kiev and Warsaw, must host games.

Of course, UEFA is hoping that both the Polish and the Ukraine governments support the tournament and fulfil their commitments.

What they don't say, but fear, is that while Poland looks dependable, Ukraine does not. UEFA's unspoken fear is that Ukraine will fail to deliver and that event may force UEFA to reconsider its commitment to hold the Euros in that country. But that still looks a very, very long shot.

In awarding tournaments to bidding cities sports governing bodies put themselves at the mercy of the governments charged with delivering their tournament.

UEFA will be hoping, just as the IOC and FIFA have in the past, that they are not let down, and will certainly be keeping a close on eye on the progress of Ukraine and Poland.

Source: BBC Sport

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Friday, September 26, 2008

Ukraine Far From Ready To Join NATO, Despite U.S. Support

KIEV, Ukraine -- The Bush White House has been pressing its European allies to accept Ukraine into NATO — over Russia's bitter opposition — but the continuing political crisis in Kiev raises serious questions about whether this country is ready to join.

Presidents George Bush (L) and Viktor Yushchenko (file photo).

Viktor Yushchenko , the U.S.-backed president, was in New York this week, ringing the bell on the New York Stock Exchange and exhorting the U.N. General Assembly to contain Russia . Back home, his ruling coalition remains fractured, raising the prospect of a third parliamentary election in as many years.

Approval ratings for the one-time hero of the 2004 Orange Revolution are consistently below 10 percent. Despite Yushchenko's strong condemnation of Russia's invasion of Georgia last month and his enthusiastic support for NATO , polls show that only some 22 percent of Ukrainians favor joining the alliance.

In the parliament, opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych's Party of Regions, considered by many to be close to Russia , has more than twice as many seats as Yushchenko's bloc, which is anchored by the Our Ukraine party.

The political bickering has significant implications for U.S. interests in the area, including the drive to admit Ukraine into NATO .

If Russia can capitalize on the instability and help shape Kiev's foreign policy, it could reassert some of the control it lost on Europe's edge after the collapse of the Soviet Union . That would be a major step forward for the Kremlin in what Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has referred to as "regions where ( Russia ) has privileged interests."

Yushchenko's supporters accuse Russia of engineering the political crisis by brokering a Faustian deal with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko , under which she split with the president and began cooperating with the opposition in return for backing in the 2010 presidential elections.

Earlier this month, Tymoshenko loyalists in parliament voted alongside Yanukovych's Party of Regions to limit the president's powers — a move Yushchenko said amounted to "a political and constitutional coup."

Officials from both Tymoshenko's and Yanukovych's parties say that the country can't afford to alienate Russia and aggressively pursue a divisive course toward NATO membership. They say Ukraine should focus instead on becoming part of the European Union and taking advantage of the country's location between Europe and Russia to raise its economic profile.

"The most positive answer for Ukraine is neutrality — neither joining NATO or any military union with Russia ," said Andriy Kozhemyakin, deputy head of the parliamentary contingent in Tymoshenko's eponymous political party. "Our political force is for Ukrainian integration into the EU as soon as possible."

Leonid Kozhara, deputy head of international relations for Yanukovych's party, said he also backs becoming a part of Europe and getting on more solid footing with Russia .

"It's not about Russian spheres or whatever; Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych understand that Ukraine cannot be a successful country without a relationship with Russia ," said Kozhara, a former Ukrainian ambassador to Sweden and congressional liaison in its Washington embassy.

Kozhara pointed out that for all of America's insistence about Ukraine's political future, it's a relatively unimportant trading partner.

Last year, the EU was the largest, at about 39 percent of the country's trade, and Russia was second at 24 percent. The U.S., on the other hand, was seventh at just 2.1 percent.

But many pro-western politicians and analysts say that drawing close to Russia risks a slow loss of Ukraine's independence until it became a de facto satellite state for the Kremlin.

" Russia is acting like an empire of gas and oil, it wants to harass Europe , to extend its territory to the post-Soviet region," said Taras Stetskiv, a parliament member from Yushchenko's political bloc, who has criticized the president's track record. "There's no need for war. Moscow has by its propaganda and its agents of influence made Ukrainian politicians fight each other — they are eating each other."

Olexiy Haran , an analyst in Kiev , said he worries that after Russia faced no real sanctions for its war with Georgia — in which it essentially annexed two large territories — the Kremlin is now more willing to deal aggressively with Ukraine . While he said he didn't think the Kremlin would try to take the peninsula of Crimea, where the Russian Black Sea fleet is docked — a frequently discussed scenario — Haran said that it's hard to predict what might happen.

"From the west, we heard a lot of nice words, strong words, brave rhetoric, but in reality nothing was done" following the Georgia war, said Haran, founding director of a school for policy analysis at a leading Kiev university. "The Russians now feel that OK, now we can do what we want."

For all the rancor about Russia , many analysts say the political turmoil in Ukraine mostly is due not to foreign meddling but squabbling politicians.

Both Yushchenko, with his face scarred by a 2004 poisoning that many blame on the Russians, and Tymoshenko, a nail-tough political fighter who wears her blonde hair in a wrap-around braid, have been darlings of the West since they led the ouster of the pro-Communist government during the Orange Revolution.

But after the thrill of that movement faded, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko quarreled often as they vied for support from Ukrainians in the west and center of the country who tend to be more western-leaning.

After Russian invaded Georgia last month, the pair appeared to take different paths to shore up political support, said Oleksandr Sushko , research director at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation , a NATO advocacy think tank.

Yushchenko unleashed harsh criticism of Russia both in Kiev and on a trip to Tbilisi , and singled out Tymoshenko for not speaking up more.

Tymoshenko was more pragmatic and argued for dealing with Russia calmly and as a partner, an apparent effort to pick up votes in the eastern and southern reaches of Ukraine where support for Russia is widespread, Sushko said.

"Playing the Russia card is part of the domestic political process," Sushko said. "The president uses the Russia card to accuse Tymoshenko of being a Russian puppet, and Tymoshenko accuses Yushchenko of destroying Ukraine's relationship with Russia ."

The question, say many in Kiev , is whether Russia will win at the end of the game.

Source: McClatchy Newspapers

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The Great Giveaway Revisited

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine is still paying a terrible price for the cheap ‘90s sell-off of the nation’s most valuable assets. “Behind every great fortune,” wrote Honore de Balzac, “there lies a great crime.”

Kryvorizhstal, the giant steel manufacturer, stands alone in the annals of Ukraine's shadowy privatizations.

If the 19th century French playwright’s observation is not an accurate description of how the Ukrainian government sold off the nation’s most valuable assets following the collapse of the Soviet Union, it sure seems that way to many people.

“Scam.” “Ripoff.” “Unfair.”

These are some of the other words people use when talking about the way Ukraine transferred so much of the nation’s wealth to a few insiders at such fire-sale prices. The opaque deals gave rise to a super-billionaire class while many in the nation suffered poverty.

While the transactions may have been technically legal from the standpoint of the corrupt 1990s, the nation paid a dear price. Many argue that the distortions and damage to the nation continue to this day, through lack of honest competition in the marketplace and the financial elite's co-opting of government.

Besides contributing to a profound sense of unfairness, Ukrainians missed out on considerable – but difficult to quantify – privatization revenues that would likely have come from open and competitive bids for state assets. Such a windfall might have lifted everyone’s standard of living and helped create a stronger middle class.

Instead, a dozen or so business groups – led by super-billionaires such as Rinat Akhmetov and Victor Pinchuk -- control Ukraine’s main industries of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, coal, machinery and transport equipment, chemicals and food processing.

Ukraine has more billionaires per capita than Russia, a nation that Forbes magazine ranked as having the third-highest number after the United States and Germany.

All of this concentration of wealth and political power is inherently unhealthy to a society, many say.

Economists call this kind of high-wealth concentration a “capture economy,” which the International Monetary Fund defines as “the efforts of firms to shape the laws, policies, and regulations of the state to their own advantage by providing illicit private gains to public officials.”

“When you have a huge disparity between the 10 percent richest and 10 percent poorest in a country, this is an indicator that a country is unstable from the standpoint that society doesn’t view those with money as being legitimate, that wealth was acquired dishonestly,” said Mykhailo Mishchenko of the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv-­based think tank.

Balazs Horvath, resident representative of the International Monetary Fund in Ukraine, said the non-competitive privatizations of the 1990s created “a significant buildup of inequality in wealth and income.” Consequently, Horvath said, a large and strong middle class – considered the backbone of stable societies -- has yet to form.

'Almost always rigged'

Some 400 enterprises of strategic importance for the national economy and security, according to the State Property Fund, were among those privatized. They were sold at nominal prices via emissions of shares that were scooped up by private hands. Or they simply sold at below-market prices.

Other public-private ownership transfers included rigged auctions conducted unfairly and non-transparently or closed auctions with preconditions that favored a select few investors often excluding stronger competitors or strategic investors.

“These auctions were almost always rigged intentionally to create an uneven and inequitable playing field to keep out higher bidders and was done with approval from the top on the national and regional levels,” said Alex Frishberg, managing partner of Frishberg & Partners law firm, familiar with the privatization process in the 1990s.

Ownership rights to some state-owned enterprises were simply transferred to private hands. Land was leased to individuals who ran companies into the ground in order to later buy them at rock-bottom prices at the state’s expense.

Privatization was lauded by Western experts for two principal reasons. Politically, it was a way of swiftly breaking with the Soviet socialist past. Economically, it was a key step in the transition to a market economy, which should have boosted productivity and efficiency.

“Importantly, the transparency of the privatization process, and efforts to ensure competitive privatization that attracts strategic investors is a critical determinant of how much of these gains actually materialize,” Horvath said. The long-term gains should have led to increased employment and salaries, thus raising the overall standard of living, said Horvath. Only in the past five years has Ukraine reaped the benefits of rising domestic consumption.

But the results are mixed. Some owners became good owners by investing in their companies, others less so, Horvath added.

Ukraine did not initiate “shock therapy” to quickly privatize, unlike many of its central and eastern European neighbors who are now snugly in the European Union and NATO. Privatization was much more of a dragged-out and shadowy affair for Ukraine, as much of the population struggled with poverty. Capital flight became and remains rampant. The offshore haven of Cyprus is still Ukraine’s largest foreign direct investor.

Privatization, moreover, was never fully completed in Ukraine. It has now ground to a halt amid the current political chaos. And land privatization has not begun, due to Ukraine’s socialist leanings on the issue.

Kryvorizhstal example

The poster boy of sloppy privatization is the way Ukraine’s largest steel manufacturer, Kryvorizhstal, was first sold in June 2004, which critics at home and abroad cited as an example of corruption and state property mismanagement.

It was sold for a paltry $800 million to a consortium made up of companies belonging to Akhmetov, who has a net worth estimated at $31 billion, and Pinchuk, the son-in-law of former President Leonid Kuchma. Pinchuk is the second wealthiest Ukrainian, Korrespondent magazine says, with a fortune of $9 billion.

The sale was made even though Mittal Steel offered nearly twice the amount – $1.5 billion.

“Cash privatizations are always a little crooked and shady since the true value of assets is always difficult to ascertain and someone [the bidders] will always be dissatisfied,” said Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington D.C.

That deal was dismissed in court in June 2005 with the moral support of President Victor Yushchenko, who was still riding high after the 2004 Orange Revolution that brought him to power.

Then the steel giant was r-sold by the government, fetching more than Ukraine generated from privatization in the previous four years.

Mittal Steel acquired a 93 percent stake in Kryvorizhstal in October 2005 for a whopping $4.8 billion. The bidding was broadcast live on Ukrainian television.

“Once a serious strategic investor took over the plant and started investing heavily into it, this spurred others in Ukraine’s steel industry to do the same, which is what transparent, competitive privatizations are supposed to do,” said the International Monetary Fund’s Horvath.

Reprivatizations halted

But Kryvorizhstal stands by itself, in the opinion of many, as an injustice corrected. Other major reprivatizations never occurred, despite attempts by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in 2005 to regain and resell prized assets.

Tymoshenko said she received a list of 3,000 enterprises that prosecutors said were privatized illegally. She pledged to review dozens of sales. Her efforts went nowhere, as her government bowed to fierce criticism for shaking investor confidence. She was fired in late 2005, in part over her attempts to reprivatize Nikopol Ferroalloy Plant, then-controlled by Pinchuk.

The highly valuable Nikopol plant reportedly has 11.5 percent of the world’s manganese alloy market. The government sold a majority stake in the company to a Pinchuk-controlled group in the early 2000s for $80 million, spurning an offer of more than twice as much.

Attempts to renationalize Nikopol have failed, allowing Pinchuk to continue reaping the highly profitable exports -- estimated at some $30 million per month. At that rate, Pinchuk needed less than three months to recoup his initial purchase price.

The most recent glaring example of state collusion with oligarchs was the 2007 privatization of Luhanskteplovoz, Ukraine’s monopoly locomotive producer.

A 76 percent stake was sold in a last-minute auction to essentially a single bidder for $60 million, Russian Transmashholding, the largest producer of heavy machinery in Russia and controlled by oligarch Iskander Makhmudov.

Major European companies eyeing Luhanskteplovoz, included German electronics giant Siemens, with some analysts estimating at the time that the state could fetch as much as $200 million.

The state also expressed an interest in reprivatizing Ukraine’s largest iron-ore mines that once made up the Ukrrudprom state holding company. These include Southern, Northern, Central, Inguletsky and Kryvy Rih ore companies, which together produce 70 percent of this raw material for the country’s steel business and for export.

Their controlling stakes were sold in 2004 to Russian billionaire Vadim Novitsky, Akhmetov and Pinchuk.

The tender was deemed unfair since it was limited to buyers who had already existing stakes in ore companies.

The state’s coffers received $270 million after Ukrrudprom’s sale. In contrast, iron ore plants in Russia individually sold for much more ranging from $600 million (Stoilenskiy Iron Dresser Complex) to $1.7 billion (Ural Steel).

Other cases have been criticized for abuses.

Among them, the buyers of Chornomorsky shipyards and the Zaporizhya Aluminum Plant are accused of non-compliance with investment obligations, giving the state grounds for reprivatization.

One special case is the Mariupol-based Illich Metallurgical Plant. Its first brush with privatization came in 1996, when a 42 percent stake was transmitted through a privileged share transfer to the plant’s 39,000 workforce.

Later, in 2000, parliament and then-President Kuchma approved the privileged sale of a majority stake of the plant for roughly $82 million. Nominally, all the plant’s employees have shares in the enterprise worth billions. Rumors abound that the stakes are controlled by the plant’s top management, namely the plant’s director, Volodymyr Boiko. The plant has a market capitalization of $4.6 billion, according to Invest Gazeta.

Billions of dollars lost

It’s not clear how many billions of dollars the state missed out on because of slipshod or corrupt privatization. Also unknown is how much better off Ukrainians would be if the sales of their nation’s most valuable enterprises were conducted openly and competitively.

After Vladimir Putin came to power in Russia, he famously gathered the nation’s major oligarchs in 2000 and, in a warning to stay clear of politics, lectured them about the crony privatizations that took place under Boris Yeltsin’s rule.

“I only want to draw your attention straightaway to the fact that you have yourselves created this very state, to a large extent through political and quasi-political structures under your control. So perhaps what one should do least of all is blame the mirror,” Putin said.

Many believe the same was true about Ukraine in the 1990s – and is even more so today.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Pirates Seize Ukrainian Ship Off Somalia Coast: Official

NAIROBI, Kenya -- Pirates on Thursday seized a Ukrainian cargo ship off the coast of Somalia, a Kenyan maritime official said, amid reports that it was carrying tanks and spare parts for armoured vehicles.

A suspected pirate looks over the edge of a skiff while off the coast of Somalia.

The hijackers commandeered the Belize-flagged Faina, which was on its way to the Kenyan port of Mombasa, to a yet unknown location, said Andrew Mwngura who runs the Kenya chapter of the Seafarers Assistance Programme.

"It was sailing from the Baltics and was expected in Mombasa on September 27," he added. "As usual, the pirates were armed on a speedboat when they seized the ship, but we do not know where they have taken it."

Somali pirates often take ships to Eyl, a pirate den in the country's northern breakaway region of Puntland.

"The ship was transporting military hardware, including some 30 T-72 tanks and spare parts for armored vehicles," Russia's Interfax news agency said, quoting informed sources.

Ukraine's foreign ministry said: "Reports on the nature of this ship's cargo are being verified," adding that there were 21 people on board: 17 Ukrainians, three Russians and a Latvian.

"The captain reported that three cutter boats with armed people approached the Faina, and then communication was cut off," it said, quoting information provided by the ship's owners.

Dozens of ships, mainly merchant vessels, have been seized by gangs off Somalia's 3,700-kilometre (2,300-mile) coastline in recent years, despite the presence of Western navies deployed in the region to fight terrorism.

The pirates travel in speedboats and are armed with automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades. They sometimes hold ships for weeks until they are released for large ransoms paid by governments or owners.

In recent months, a multinational taskforce based in Djibouti has been patrolling parts of the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, where a pirate mothership is believed to be operating.

Some pirates have justified their actions by claiming that, in the absence of a functional central authority in Somalia, they were battling illegal fishing and toxic waste dumping by foreign countries.

Last week, France circulated a draft resolution in the UN Security Council urging states to deploy naval vessels and military aircrafts to join in the fight against rampant piracy off Somalia.

The Security Council in June adopted a resolution empowering states to send warships into Somalia's territorial waters with the government's consent to combat piracy and armed robbery at sea.

French commandos recently freed sailing boat Carre d'As and its French crew and in June, they attacked pirates and freed the crew of a French-owned luxury cruise yacht, Le Ponant.

Somalia has been without an effective central authority since the 1991 ouster of former president Mohamed Siad Bare set off a deadly power struggle that has defied more than a dozen peace initiatives.

Source: AFP

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Bush To Host Ukraine President Sept 29

WASHINGTON, DC -- US President George W. Bush will welcome Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko on September 29 for talks in the wake of Russia's war with Georgia, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Thursday.

US President George Bush will welcome Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko on Monday, Sep. 29.

"The president and President Yushchenko will discuss how to reinforce democracy, security and national sovereignty in Ukraine and throughout the region and steps to advance Ukraine's efforts to integrate into the Euro-Atlantic community," Perino told reporters.

Yushchenko on Wednesday rejected Russian pressure to prevent his country from joining NATO.

"It is essential to turn down blackmailing and threatening vocabulary," he told the UN General Assembly in New York.

Without ever naming Russia, Yushchenko also condemned "all acts of aggression and the use of force that occurred in the region."

He was apparently referring to both Georgia's recent offensive against separatists in its breakaway enclave of South Ossetia and the ensuing Russian military intervention there to dislodge Georgian troops.

"Ukraine vigorously denounces the violation of the territorial integrity and inviolability of the Georgian borders and armed annexation of its territory," the Ukrainian leader said.

"Ukraine does not recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia (and) condemns the endeavor of the illegitimate and separatist affirmation of the statehood of any territories," he added.

Russia has opposed NATO entry for Georgia and Ukraine, saying that NATO expansion and its support of a planned US anti-missile system in the Czech Republic and Poland is a "strategic error."

Analysts have said Ukraine could be next in Moscow's sights should it decide to flex more than diplomatic muscles in its former Soviet sphere of influence, amid fears over the maintenance of stable gas supplies to the European Union.

Source: AFP

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Thursday, September 25, 2008

Yushchenko Plays The Anti-Russia Card

MOSCOW, Russia -- After more than 15 years, I still remember a fascinating conversation I had in 1992. I was visiting a Columbia University Sovietology professor at his country home 100 kilometers from Manhattan. I was introduced to an intellectual, elderly man who had been one of Czechoslovakia's leaders prior to World War II.

President Dmitry Medvedev (L) and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have made it clear that preventing Ukraine from joining NATO is one of Russia's top foreign policy priorities.

Among other things, he told me that Russia and Ukraine would go to war within 20 years. At the time, his prediction struck me as absurd, but I look at it very differently now.

If the relationship between Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate, a serious conflict between the two could easily break out.

President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have made it clear that preventing Ukraine from joining NATO is one of Russia's top foreign policy priorities.

In the words of one political analyst close to the Kremlin, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO represents a threat so great that any means are justified in preventing it.

Many believe that the breaking point of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation will be in 2017, when the leasing agreement that gives Russia the right to use Sevastopol for its Black Sea Fleet base expires.

But I think it will happen before 2017. Even now, the increasing number of irritants between the two countries could provoke a rapid escalation of tensions.

Ukraine's political situation is highly unstable, and an increasing number of its politicians are trying to exploit that instability by playing the anti-Russia card. The person leading this campaign is President Viktor Yushchenko.

Yushchenko's current popularity ratings are low -- a meager 10 percent. He therefore might try to alarm Ukrainians with the Russian threat to strengthen his position.

After all, Ukrainians are just as susceptible to the "besieged fortress" mentality as their Russian neighbors.

Russia's five-day war with Georgia presented Yushchenko with an excellent opportunity to exploit the anti-Russia card. After Georgia, Russia will attack Crimea, the argument goes.

To be sure, there are plenty of Russian politicians, including Mayor Yury Luzhkov and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who give Yushchenko grist for his anti-Russian mill.

Not only do they suggest that Russia's fleet will stay in Sevastopol after 2017 but if Kiev doesn't extend the leasing agreement, they constantly question Ukraine's territorial integrity and its historical and legal legitimacy as a sovereign state.

Following the war in Georgia, Yushchenko issued a decree requiring that Black Sea Fleet commanders give Ukrainian authorities 72-hour advance notice of any plans to sail across Ukraine's borders, along with a list of the ships involved, their crew members and freight.

For now, Moscow's military command openly ignore the order, but what if the Ukrainian president were to demand that it be obeyed? That would conceivably create a de facto military standoff between Ukrainian and Russian forces.

There are many other similar "land mines" in Crimea, including the Crimean-Tatar minority that periodically wages land-grabbing raids, as well as the significant number of residents in Crimea and the eastern portion of the country who hold both Russian and Ukrainian citizenship.

The problem is that Ukraine is now considering a law that would impose five-year prison sentences on anybody holding dual citizenship.

At the same time, the Kremlin's fantasy is to oust Yushchenko from office and install a more pliable, pro-Moscow leader who will reverse the country's pro-West orientation.

But that is just another Kremlin delusion.

Source: The Moscow Times

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Major Parties Lose Support As Voters Want New Faces

KIEV, Ukraine -- Recent public opinion polls show that the heightened political crisis has dented the popularity of all major political parties and leaders. A demand for fresh new faces is on the rise.

Yatsenyuk announced plans to create a new party, but this month's polls showed it would barely make it over the three percent threshold to get to parliament, if elections were to be held soon.

With all the mayhem, it is no surprise that a growing number of Ukrainians want to see new parties and leaders in government, and less bickering between those in power.

“People are disillusioned with the monster parties” and want to see “fresh” parties as well as political leaders, said Iryna Bekeshkina, head of Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a Kyiv-based think tank.

According to a mid-September poll by the Sofia Center for Sociological Studies, 77.5 percent of Ukrainians think that the country’s affairs are moving in the wrong direction.

Three recent polls show that the number of people who would vote “against all” if elections were to be held soon has increased since the 2007 parliamentary elections. Less than three percent voted against all political forces then, while now the figure is between five and 16 percent, depending on the poll.

The polls show that while Ukraine’s largest political forces still appeal to a combined majority of voters, the parties and blocs have lost many potential voters since last September.

In 2007 the Party of Regions snagged 34.4 percent, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc received 30.7 percent and the pro-presidential Our Ukraine grouping scored 14.2 percent.

According to an early September poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 24 percent of potential voters support Yulia Tymoshenko’s bloc, another 23 percent will vote for the Regions and only 3.8 percent still have faith in President Victor Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine.

Parties aside, key political figures have also lost public support. According to Sofia, 61 percent of voters are ready to vote “no confidence” in Yushchenko, while 56.5 percent negatively perceive the activities of Tymoshenko.

At the same time, the polls show a growing demand for new politicians and parties. For example, if parliamentary elections where held in September, a political force led by acting Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk would score 3.5 percent, according to a National Institute of Strategic Research poll.

That’s just enough for what would be a newly formed party led by Yatsenyuk to pass the three percent qualifying barrier for seats in parliament.

Yatsenyuk formally resigned as speaker after the BYuT-Our Ukraine grouping coalition collapsed, but continues to hold the post, as parliament has not voted for a new speaker.

After tendering his resignation, Yatsenyuk promptly announced he will lead a new political project.

“This is not the project of Arseniy Yatsenyuk alone, this is the project of an idea, the idea of a strong and democratic state,” Yatsenyuk told Inter channel on Sept. 21.

The acting speaker discounted rumors that the new political project will be financed by Ukraine’s richest individual, Rinat Akhmetov.

He also denied rumors that his party would be led jointly with National Security and Defense Council Secretary Raisa Bohatyryova, an Akhmetov ally who was expelled from the Regions for her pro-NATO position.

Yatsenyuk’s new political project is also rumored to include a former Yushchenko ally and defense minister, Anatoliy Hrytsenko. According to Sofia, 2.5 percent of voters would support a political force led by Hrytsenko.

The potential electorate of a Yatsenyuk party is middle class, and supports right-centrist ideology. It would grab voters from the traditional Tymoshenko bloc and Yushchenko electorate, Bekeshkina added.

Experts say any new political movement will only succeed if it is led by bright and popular leaders. “Our people won’t vote for a party program, they seek a leader,” Bekeshkina said.

“The danger to democracy [in this trend] is that disappointed people, who have spent a long time living in chaos, will support any authoritarian leader promising to restore order,” Bekeshkina added.

Further evidence of disappointment can be found in the popular support for a coalition between BYuT and the Regions, Bekeshkina said. Such sentiment is a sign that if a new strong leader doesn’t spring up, voters would at least seek constructive cooperation from the largest parties.

Some 31 percent of respondents support the BYuT-Regions coalition, according to the National Institute of Strategy Research. The Sofia poll indicates some 44.6 percent of voters support such an alliance.

Experts say there are other reasons that support for a union between two fierce political opponents – BYuT and Regions – is popular.

Firstly, voters simply don’t believe that Our Ukraine and BYuT can function as partners in a stable coalition due Tymoshenko's and Yushchenko's presidential ambitions.

Secondly, Ukrainians would prefer any coalition over the option of voting in a third parliamentary election in as many years.

Moreover, Sofia’s poll results indicate that half of Ukraine’s citizens feel that snap elections would not change the makeup of parliament.

Source: Kyiv Post

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No Place To Go But The Polls

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine’s democratic coalition collapsed with a dull thud when parliament’s speaker, Arseniy Yatseniuk, announced on the morning of 16 September that talks to revive the coalition had failed.

Non-stop bickering between the 'Orange' team's Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko has created a political mess that is not helping Ukraine's image abroad or its aspirations to join the European Union and NATO.

The collapse was initiated on 4 September, when President Viktor Yushchenko’s parliamentary faction, Our Ukraine, announced its withdrawal from a coalition with BYuT, the bloc headed by his onetime Orange Revolution ally, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. A 10-day grace period, foreseen by parliamentary rules of procedure, yielded no noticeable movement and no chances of reviving the Our Ukraine-BYuT parliamentary majority.

The expected hand-wringing, within and outside of Ukraine, has followed. Ukraine’s chances of entering the European Union and NATO have been downgraded, its future as a developing democratic nation placed in doubt. But the collapse of the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko coalition was long overdue and was no more than a recognition of the reality on the ground.

The coalition, formed with a bare majority of 50-percent-plus-two-seats in parliament, has largely been a sham since its inception. Yulia Tymoshenko was appointed prime minister last December following early elections in September. From day one of her tenure, however, Yushchenko worked hard at undermining her.

NON-STOP BICKERING

As early as January, the president introduced a bill seeking to limit the powers of the cabinet headed by Tymoshenko.

One of Tymoshenko’s first acts as prime minister was to seek to revoke the license to supply natural gas granted to UkrGazEnergo, owned 50-50 by Ukraine’s state energy giant, Naftohaz, and the shadowy intermediary company RosUkrEnergo. Yushchenko conducted separate talks with Russia’s leaders, who back RosUkrEnergo, and even expressed tacit support for Russia’s position. Tymoshenko responded by trying to liquidate UkrGazEnergo, but this initiative has bogged down in the courts.

Later, in the spring, Tymoshenko repealed a license granted to the U.S. company Vanco to explore for fossil fuel deposits off Ukraine’s Black Sea coast and ignored Yushchenko’s demands that the license be reinstated.

Also early on, Tymoshenko attempted to push through an ambitious privatization program, including of Ukraine’s “last-mile” telephone line monopolist, Ukrtelecom, a major chemical plant and distributor in Odessa, and 24 other state-owned companies.

These initiatives were not greeted with enthusiasm in the president’s camp, to put it mildly. Yushchenko doubtless calculated that his rival would use the proceeds from her privatization program to pay back some of their lost Soviet-era savings to Ukrainian citizens and pursue other populist measures, thereby raising her own popularity. Yushchenko issued decrees halting the privatization of the Odessa Port Factory and several other enterprises. Tymoshenko responded by publicly calling Yushchenko’s decrees “empty” and saying she would go ahead with the planned privatizations regardless.

This tit-for-tat pattern then continued. Tymoshenko’s government adopted a decision to conduct public auctions of land, and Yushchenko rescinded it. Tymoshenko demanded the resignation of General Prosecutor Oleksandr Medvedko, and Yushchenko left him in place. Tymoshenko directed the head of Ukraine’s state savings bank, Oshchadbank, to manage the Soviet-era savings repayments, after which Yushchenko demanded his resignation.

Small wonder that in early February the journalist Viktor Chyvokunia wrote an article titled “Return of the Cold War Between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.”

On the issue of privatizations, the confrontation came to a dramatic head in May. Tymoshenko needed to change the director of the State Property Fund, the Socialist Valentyna Semeniuk, who is opposed to privatization on principle. Tymoshenko’s candidate was Andriy Portnov, a lawyer associated with the Privat Group headed by oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky and former President Leonid Kuchma’s chief-of-staff, Viktor Medvedchuk. Tymoshenko and Yushchenko then traded decisions and decrees, with the former appointing Portnov and the latter rescinding these decisions, until Tymoshenko established a parallel property fund in the building housing the cabinet itself. Mail to the fund was diverted here, Portnov produced a second official seal of the fund and the State Treasury was instructed to take orders only from Portnov. But Yushchenko responded forcefully by getting Medvedko to open criminal cases against officials adhering to Tymoshenko’s decisions, including against Portnov, and Tymoshenko’s group was forced to back down.

DAMN THE TORPEDOES

Tymoshenko has not been blameless herself, and her forceful style has provided fodder for the salvoes she has endured from the presidential camp. Although in mid-January Standard & Poor’s warned against Tymoshenko’s plan to return to Ukrainians part of their personal savings lost during the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tymoshenko forged ahead anyway. The result was a spike in inflation of 30 percent in April.

Many of Yushchenko’s actions vis-à-vis Tymoshenko consisted of a reaction to her heavy-handed methods of governing. Tymoshenko is an adherent of the practice of ruchne upravlinia, or “hands-on governing,” whereby the prime minister herself attempts to run individual government ministries or agencies, at times in contravention of the law.

On 23 January, for instance, Tymoshenko’s government adopted a decision allowing government agencies to ignore court decisions that were made “consciously illegally.” She then proposed a bill, opposed by Yushchenko, that would have liquidated higher specialized courts. In July, Tymoshenko instructed the head of Ukraine’s energy transportation company, Ukrtransnafta, not to sign any documents and even not to participate in any meetings or consultations regarding the transportation of oil via the Odessa-Brody pipeline. Tymoshenko’s diktat was not surprisingly seen as subverting a presidential decree adopted in May that requires the pipeline to begin pumping oil to Europe.

During the course of their drawn-out conflict, Yushchenko left most of the criticism of Tymoshenko to his chief of staff, Viktor Baloha. During the past year, Baloha has publicly accused Tymoshenko of possessing a Napoleonic complex and of hypocrisy, and in August Baloha even accused Tymoshenko of cooperating with Islamic extremists and of plotting his murder.

Tymoshenko, for her part, consistently refused to be drawn into an exchange of public acrimony with Baloha, whom she views as a minor functionary. This summer, a BYuT member of parliament told this reporter privately that Tymoshenko had for months been quelling a rising tide of protest within her party, insisting on not publicly replying to accusations from Yushchenko’s camp. Tymoshenko had counted on taking the high road and waited to respond forcefully, apparently adopting Teddy Roosevelt’s maxim of “speaking softly, but carrying a big stick.”

TREASON AND INSANITY

But even Tymoshenko’s patience wore out after Yushchenko accused her of betraying her country. On 18 August Andriy Kyslynsky, deputy chairman of the presidential secretariat and Baloha’s direct subordinate, declared that Tymoshenko was cooperating with the Russian leadership by not declaring her support for Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in the South Ossetian conflict. In return, Kyslynsky claimed, Russian money and the government itself were preparing to support Tymoshenko in a bid for the presidency. The presidential secretariat asked the Secret Service to examine whether the prime minister had acted “to damage the country’s national interests.”

The brief, sharp war in August between Georgia and Russia served as a convenient fulcrum for Yushchenko in mobilizing support against Tymoshenko. Because the prime minister was noticeably reluctant in supporting Saakashvili, with whom Tymoshenko had hit it off when she visited Tbilisi in June 2005 during her earlier stint as premier, some deputies from Our Ukraine spoke openly of a “Kremlin plot” to “destroy Ukraine’s statehood,” assisted by BYuT. Such attitudes came to the fore when Our Ukraine’s political council voted on 4 September to dissolve their coalition with the Tymoshenko Bloc and accused BYuT of “creating a new, pro-Kremlin majority” in parliament, according to a party statement.

On 20 September Yushchenko himself said Tymoshenko’s actions were “aimed at destabilizing the situation” and called them “treason.”

Tymoshenko responded, “I believe that [Yushchenko’s accusation] is already insanity.”

Given the tone, it is hardly surprising that representatives of both sides have admitted they are not even conducting any talks on a new coalition.

In the meantime, his penchant for hyperbole is not winning Yushchenko any points. His abysmal poll ratings, consistently in the single digits, have not budged noticeably after he expressed support for Saakashvili and vilified Tymoshenko.

NO COALITIONS LEFT

Therein lies the crux of the matter. Yushchenko faces re-election in a year’s time with practically no chance of winning. He would like to try for a repeat of 2004, when he faced Viktor Yanukovych, head of the Party of Regions, and won, thanks to the Orange Revolution. But Yushchenko is unlikely to even make it into a second round, given that Tymoshenko is several times more popular than he. Thus Yushchenko has, through Baloha, done practically everything possible to stymie Tymoshenko in her tenure as prime minister, in order to try and lower her poll ratings.

Now that the differences between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have become irreconcilable, Yanukovych’s Party of Regions is looking to make it back into government. Yanukovych headed a government with Yushchenko as president from August 2006 to December 2007. Their differences turned out to be irreconcilable as well, and Yushchenko was forced to call early elections by decree.

The only remaining workable combination of parliamentary factions that has not been tried is that of BYuT and the Party of Regions. These two forces have already cooperated in the past. On 2 September the two blocs voted together to pass changes to the laws on the cabinet, the General Prosecutor’s Office, and the Secret Service. The point of the amendments passed was to decrease the president’s powers. In response, Yushchenko called the voting a “constitutional coup-d’état.”

Tymoshenko and Yanukovych have acknowledged they are in coalition talks. But the problem facing them is acute. Tymoshenko’s entire raison-d’etre in government is to head it. Yanukovych, for his part, yearning to erase his defeat in 2004, cannot do a climb-down and forgo the premiership with presidential elections only a year away.

If a new coalition is not created within a month after the previous coalition’s dissolution, by 4 October, Yushchenko will have the authority, though not the obligation, to call new, early parliamentary elections. There are good reasons for him to do so. In the past, Our Ukraine has not proven reliable in doing what Baloha wants and has at times sided with BYuT. In March, Baloha helped found a new political party, Single Center, as an additional pillar of support for Yushchenko. But Single Center’s real purpose is to provide Baloha with his own political organization. Baloha is rumored to harbor his own prime-ministerial ambitions.

In the meantime, the Party of Regions and the Tymoshenko Bloc say they have begun preparations for elections. Ukraine looks set to head for the polls once again, for the third time in as many years. The political forces involved seem determined to undergo repeat elections, until they “get it right.”

Source: Transitions Online

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Yushchenko Pushes For NATO At United Nations

NEW YORK, NY -- Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko vowed on Sept. 24 his country would be undeterred in its bid for NATO membership despite Russian opposition.

Ukranian President Victor Yushchenko addresses the 63rd session of the United Nations General Assembly Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2008 at the United Nations.

Yushchenko reaffirmed his pro-Western government's NATO aspirations in a speech to the United Nations just weeks after Russia's military incursion in Georgia sparked international condemnation and stirred concerns in Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.

"Ukraine rejects pressure of any kind regarding ways to ensure its own security and to determine membership in collective security structures," he told the annual General Assembly gathering of world leaders. "Such attempts of infringement are short-sighted and counterproductive."

Yushchenko was referring to U.S.-backed efforts by Ukraine, along with Georgia, to join NATO, a drive that has incensed Moscow. He did not specifically name Russia.

NATO leaders at their April summit stopped short of putting Ukraine and Georgia immediately on the path to membership in the alliance but pledged the two ex-Soviet states would one day become members.

Russia and Georgia fought a brief war last month after Tbilisi sent in troops to try to seize back the rebel region of South Ossetia, drawing massive retaliation by Moscow and sending U.S.-Russia relations to a post-Cold War low.

The Kremlin's decision to deploy forces in defense of pro-Moscow separatists in South Ossetia also rattled nerves in Ukraine, which accuses Russia of stoking tensions in Crimea, a region populated mainly by ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers.

Yushchenko reiterated Ukraine's support for Georgian "territorial integrity" and opposition to independence for South Ossetia and another breakaway region, Abkhazia, which Moscow has recognized.

"Ukraine ... condemns the endeavor of the illegitimate and separatist affirmation of the statehood of any territories," he said. "These processes create the potential threat both for the Ukrainian nationality and other countries of our region."

While the United States has supported both Georgia and Ukraine's membership bids, allies including Germany, France and smaller NATO states have opposed it for fear of further provoking Russia.

Divisions over policy toward Russia contributed to the collapse last week of Ukraine's governing coalition, raising the prospect of a third parliamentary election in as many years.

Source: AP

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Wednesday, September 24, 2008

UPDATE: No Russian Fleet In Ukraine Beyond 2017 - Ukrainian PM

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko Wednesday ruled out Russia's Black Sea fleet staying in Ukraine after its lease ends in 2017, a day after Moscow voiced interest in keeping it there longer.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko

Asked whether Ukraine would consider extending the Russian fleet's lease on the port of Sevastopol, Tymoshenko said: "We need to maintain this agreement until 2017 and then we need to make Ukraine a zone free of any military bases."

Moscow has been angered by Ukrainian demands that it quickly relocate the historic fleet.

The dispute has been aggravated by Ukrainian moves to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, prompting some Western politicians to predict it could spark a new crisis in a region destabilized by Russia's incursion last month into Georgia.

Ukraine infuriated Moscow during that conflict by imposing restrictions on the use of the port after ships stationed there were used in combat against close Ukraine ally Georgia.

Tuesday, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said Russia "would like the Black Sea Fleet to remain in Sevastopol after the 2017 expiration" and hoped to negotiate new terms with Kiev, Interfax news agency reported.

Under a 20-year agreement signed in 1997, Moscow pays $98 million a year to maintain its naval base in Sevastopol, an amount which some Ukrainians say is much too small for its oil-rich neighbor.

Experts say it would cost Russia tens of billions of dollars to build comparable facilities at its own Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which now serves as an auxiliary base

Source: AFP

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UEFA To Rule On Ukraine, Poland As Euro Hosts

PARIS, France -- European football's governing body is expected to rule Friday on whether Ukraine and Poland can still host the 2012 European Championship, and whether to endorse a move to increase that competition from 16 to 24 teams.

UEFA President Michel Platini

The main item for UEFA's executive committee at the two-day meeting starting Thursday in Bordeaux will be for president Michel Platini and his committee members to review the hosting arrangements for Euro 2012.

They will go over a report showing whether Ukraine and Poland have made enough progress on infrastructure and planning, which was an area of concern after UEFA officials visited the countries earlier this year.

"We will receive an experts' report," UEFA spokesman William Gaillard said Wednesday. "It will be presented to the executive committee to see what has been done since the last reports three months ago, and what remains to be done."

Gaillard said he has not yet seen the report, which was written last month by UEFA inspectors. Ukraine and Poland have struggled to upgrade stadiums, transport and accommodation.

When Platini visited Poland and Ukraine in March, he was unhappy at the lack of progress and warned officials they could lose the right to host Euro 2012 if considerable improvements were not made.

UEFA awarded the tournament to Ukraine and Poland in April 2007, ahead of Italy and another co-host bid from Hungary and Croatia.

"In March, our president pointed out that there was a problem with the infrastructure and the management of the project," Gaillard said. "The executive committee will look at what has been done in that domain. We are not expecting stadiums to be finished by tomorrow, but that things are going the right way."

UEFA will also discuss whether to favor plans to expand the tournament to 24 teams by 2016, a proposal that is expected to be approved after being unanimously backed in June.

Source: Sports Illustrated

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Foreign Briefing

GLASGOW, Scotland -- The resurgent Russian bear, carefully manicuring its recently sharpened claws, will no doubt be taking more than a passing interest in Ukraine at the moment.


The last, battered remnants of Kiev's Orange revolution, and with it the government, have just been laid to rest, both swept into the grave by a torrent of venomous spite flowing between Ukraine's president and prime minister.

In many ways "spite" fails to do justice to the relationship between president Viktor Yushchenko and the prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko. The animosity between the two, who led Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution, has been bubbling ever since they came to power, but recently it has boiled over.

During the Russia-Georgia conflict Mr Yushchenko labelled his prime minister a traitor for her failure to condemn Moscow's intervention.

Not to be outdone, last week Ms Tymoshenko savaged the president, saying that since 2004 he has "managed to destroy everything: faith in ideals of the revolution and faith in the president himself".

The vitriolic atmosphere between the two most important people in Ukraine has already contributed to the collapse of the coalition government.

Although it remains possible that Ms Tymoshenko could cobble together a new coalition, Ukraine is now in the midst of a political crisis that could have significant consequences not only for Ukrainians but also for both East and West.

Relations with Russia, already poor, have worsened over tensions stemming from disputes about the Russian navy's access to Ukraine's Black Sea ports in the Crimea, and analysts argue that Moscow might try to take advantage of Kiev's crisis and pressure Ukraine into adopting a more accommodating stance.

At the same time, the turmoil may well scupper any chance of Ukraine taking shelter under a comforting western wing. Kiev's continued infighting is damaging the moral and practical authority of its leaders, and undermining their credibility in western eyes.

And for Ukraine the maelstrom of political malice, internal and external pressures pulling the country both East and West at the same time have created an environment that is nothing but challenging.

Source: The Scotsman

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Some Pig: Sow Nurses Tiger Cubs In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- It's not quite lions lying down with lambs but it's pretty close. A pig at a farm in eastern Ukraine is nursing three tiger cubs abandoned by their mother.

Tiger cubs join in with piglets at feeding time in Ukraine.

Noviy Channel TV says the tigers were born last week at a zoo in Dnipropetrovsk, but their mother refused to care for them.

Zookeepers took the animals to a nearby farm where a sow had recently given birth to about a dozen piglets.

The pig apparently had no objections when the tiger cubs were started nursing alongside the piglets.

Zoo director Yuriy Aksenych said in televised comments that the mother tiger appears to have lost its feral instincts after years in captivity.

Zoo officials could not be reached for comment Tuesday.

Source: MSNBC

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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Ukraine President Yushchenko's Daughter Walks Milan Fashion Runway

KIEV, Ukraine -- The daughter of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko stepped up her career as a fashion model with runway work at a Milan show, Russia's Izvestia newspaper reported Tuesday.

Vitalina Yushchenko

Vitalina Yushchenko took part in the showing of the summer collection of the Ukrainian designer Aina Gase, according to the report.

Vitalina's portfolio also includes photographs posed for Russian Vogue.

Prior to taking up modelling, the 27-year-old mother-of-two had pursued a career as a pop singer.

Vitalina is Yushchenko's eldest child by a previous marriage.

Ukrainian media have accused Vitalina and her younger brother Andriy, 23, of trying to cash in on their father's position as president.

Both Yushchenko children lead high profile public lives, with Ukrainian society pages chronicling in detail their lifestyle, property, and celebrity friends.

Andriy, an unemployed student, came in for particularly sharp criticism recently for parking his 30,000-euro ($44,000) BMW SUV illegally in downtown Kiev.

Yushchenko has reacted strongly to such charges, claiming the media targets his children in order to sell newspaper and television advertising.

Source: DPA

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Rice Gives Strong Backing For Ukraine NATO Bid

NEW YORK, NY -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Monday pledged Washington's firm support for Ukraine's bid to join the NATO military alliance despite strong Russian opposition to the move.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice

In a meeting with Ukraine's foreign minister on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, Rice said the United States stood by a commitment made at a summit in Bucharest last April for Kiev to join NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP) -- a first step toward membership of the military alliance.

"We, of course, are, have been and will continue to be supportive of Ukraine's Transatlantic ambitions. And of course, the U.S. position on MAP was very clear," said Rice, with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko at her side.

"I should just say the Bucharest declaration is also very clear," she added.

At the April summit, NATO leaders stopped short of putting Ukraine and Georgia immediately on the path to membership of the alliance, but pledged the two ex-Soviet states would one day become members.

Russia strongly opposes Ukraine's proposed membership of NATO, as well as that of Georgia.

Russia and Georgia fought a brief war last month after Tbilisi sent in troops to try to seize back the rebel region of South Ossetia, provoking massive retaliation by Moscow and a plummet in U.S.-Russia relations to their lowest level since the end of the Cold War.

While the United States has strongly backed both Georgia and Ukraine's membership bids, allies including Germany, France and smaller NATO states have opposed it for fear of further provoking Russia.

The idea of membership has not been fully embraced in Ukraine either. Polls show a majority of Ukrainians oppose NATO membership and the leader of the country's biggest parliamentary party has said the issue should be decided by the Ukrainian people.

Source: Washington Post

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Monday, September 22, 2008

Palin To Meet With Presidents Of Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine, Pakistan

ORLANDO, FL -- According to a Palin campaign aide, this Wednesday in separate meetings Sarah Palin will meet with Iraqi President Talabani, Georgian President Saakashvelli, Ukrainian President Yuschenko, Pakistani President Zardari, and Indian Prime Minister Singh.

Sarah Palin

She will also meet with rock star and humanitarian, Bono on the same day.

As previously reported, her meetings with world leaders start Tuesday with separate meetings with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, and Dr. Kissinger.

The meetings will be in New York and coincide with the United Nations’ General Assembly, which meets this week and attracts leaders from all over the world.

The meetings are an effort by the campaign to boost Palin’s foreign policy credentials and show her ability to hob knob with foreign leaders.

Her lack of foreign policy experience has been widely criticized since John McCain’s selection of Palin as his running mate.

Source: Fox News

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Ukraine Between The West And The East

BUCHAREST, Romania -- The Georgian crisis, erupting on the international scene with the ‘five-day war’ between Russia and Georgia on August 7, 2008, has registered a new and one of the most significant episodes last week.


Yulia Timoshenko’s Government has been dismissed by President Viktor Yushchenko on September 16 on the backdrop of the latter’s accusations that the Prime Minister has an ambiguous – verging on treasonous – attitude towards the war that pitted Georgia against Russia last month, accusations amounting to no less than being in the pay of Moscow.

What is of course strange, to say the least, is the fact that Viktor Yushchenko and Timoshenko are the heroes of the 2004 ‘orange’ revolution in Ukraine, a revolution that led to the installation of a reformist power in Kiev, and that the current Government was formed in Parliament after the latest snap elections last year, through an agreement between the parties of the aforementioned politicians.

The crucial question in the case of the current Government crisis and that of the political crisis that subsequently erupted – the second crisis registered in the three years of the current Parliament, the previous one having to do with a conflict between them too and being resolved through snap elections – is the following: what is the main cause?

The answers that can be given to this question cannot rule out references to Russia, nor to the Ukrainian political system and to the conflict between the two politicians.

Could Russia be behind the current Government crisis? The answer is difficult. Moscow’s stance towards the complex problems of the former Soviet area is known.

President Dmitry Medvedev has shown very clearly that Russia has special interests in this area and even beyond it and that his country will defend the dignity of Russians living in adjacent states (over 10 million of them in Ukraine).

Likewise, he reiterated Russia’s unyielding opposition to NATO’s expansion towards the Russian borders, and Moscow’s behaviour vis-à-vis Georgia emphasizes that when it comes to this issue, Russia is ready to go up to the final consequences. As known, Ukraine is one of the countries that are due to undergo a NATO evaluation in December in order to receive the MAP statute that precedes the accession to the alliance.

Moreover, port facilities for the Russian fleet in the Black Sea have been rented in Ukraine’s Crimea until 2017, and the fleet’s ships have been used in the war against Georgia. In recent weeks embryos of separatist movement have made themselves felt in the Crimea - with most of the locals being ethnic Russian or Russophiles – and in Moscow one could hear voices asking for the reclaiming of the peninsula that Russia ceded to Ukraine as a ‘gift’ in 1954.

On the other hand, even President Viktor Yushcenko issues unveiled hints referring to Russia’s involvement in the current crisis. In a recent interview he did not exclude this possibility, pointing out that such a scenario certainly exists in Moscow. ‘Will they repeat the Georgian scenario?’ Yushchenko asked. ‘For sure, no. Ukraine is not Georgia’ he said. ‘I think that today to deal with a country like Ukraine in such an inconsiderate manner... is not a good idea for anyone.’

Hence, a true and complex political background that presents Russia as the beneficiary of the political crisis in Kiev, now that Moscow has shown simultaneously with the recognition of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence that the political rearrangement of the former Soviet area has begun.

The more the crisis is prolonged, the more the chances of Ukraine’s positive evaluation for a MAP in December drop, the more it splits the country in two antagonist parts – anti and pro Russian, the more the country’s destabilization deepens and the more Ukraine’s orientation towards Russia could gain consistency.

And NATO would be unlikely to accept within its ranks o country that is in the midst of political crisis and that has tense relations with the Russian neighbour.

It’s just that standing to gain from it does not automatically mean you are the initiator of the crisis – whether through covert or a different kind of action – with Russia having the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

However one cannot ignore the accusations that President Viktor Yushchenko brought against the Prime Minister, accusations regarding the latter’s double dealing stance towards Russia, nor could one ignore Timoshenko’s statements.

Unlike Yushchenko, who openly condemned the Russian aggression and politically backed Georgia by restricting the movements of Russian ships from the Crimea, she said that although she does not support Moscow’s recognition of the separatist entities in Georgia, nevertheless she considers that Kiev needs good relations with its neighbour to the east.

Other recent developments come to give credence to the possible implications of the Russian action in escalating the crisis in Ukraine. Thus, Victor Yanukovich, the leader of the Party of Regions, Yushchenko’s former strong counter-candidate in the previous Presidential elections and the future candidate in the 2010 presidential elections and a politician known for his pro-Russian orientation, is considered to have chances of building a new Parliamentary majority along with Yulia Timoshenko.

When it comes to Russia, their stances are close to identical – the neighbor to the east should not be irked, there is a need of good relations with it – and their anti-Presidential position has recently become staunch. Recently he stated that ‘the Ukrainians feel no threat coming from Russia.

Speaking about such a threat, I think, are only those people that were cloned by the ‘orange’ revolution experiment. I don’t know how to call them – mutants, monsters. The rest normal people want to live in peace with their neighbours.’

If we refer to the servitudes of the Ukrainian political system and to the traits of the personalities involved in this crisis the picture is likewise complex. On the one hand, there is a strong current in support of amending the Constitution and limiting the President’s prerogatives was tried out (a move that has basically led to the current crisis, Timoshenko’s party voting alongside the opposition in support of limiting the Presidential prerogatives, in what Viktor Yushchenko called ‘a political coup’).

On the other hand, Yushchenko and Timoshenko are strong personalities whose will for exclusive power brings them into conflict. That is what happened almost a year ago when snap elections had to be called in order to end another political crisis.

An official stated that: ‘It’s not about being pro-Western or pro-Russian. It’s about who gets to sit on the pipe,’ referring to the state’s large revenues obtained from the transit of fossil fuels. ‘Timoshenko is only interested in what serves her. She wants a monopoly on power. She was pro-Western when she needed the West’s support. Now she is trying to be pro-Russian.’ Both Yushchenko and Timoshenko are emerging as opponents in the Presidential elections of 2010, and the current crisis could be the beginning of their split for that competition.

According to the Constitution, by mid-October the Parliament has to come up with a new Government based on a new majority. If it fails then early elections will be next.

Irrespective of how it comes about, most of the political analysts foresee a prolonged crisis and a deepening instability in Ukraine in the near future, since Moscow revealed its intentions in the former Soviet area after the war in Georgia.

Source: Nine o'Clock

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Ukraine PM Accuses President Of "Madness"

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko on Sunday accused President Viktor Yushchenko of "madness," Interfax news agency reported, sharpening a bitter war of words between the former allies.

PM Yulia Tymoshenko 'ready for a fight'.

Yushchenko, who earlier this month pulled his party from Tymoshenko's governing coalition, Saturday accused the prime minister of "treason" for putting her own interests ahead those of the state.

Asked about the accusation, Tymoshenko said: "I consider this is already madness...it is even embarrassing to comment," Interfax reported.

She then accused Yushchenko of "total inadequacy," the news agency said.

Tymoshenko also denied Yushchenko's accusation that her party, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, was failing to enter talks to reestablish their alliance, dubbed the "democratic coalition" by the country's media.

"It seems to me that the person who is now the country's president is simply looking for the reasons not to return to the democratic coalition", she said.

Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have had a love-hate relationship since they joined forces to overturn a rigged election in the 2004 Orange Revolution. Their latest split was sparked by differences over how Ukraine should react to Russia's war with Georgia.

Yushchenko then pulled his Our Ukraine party from the ruling coalition after Tymoshenko's party joined forces with the pro-Russian opposition to pass legislation limiting the president's power

Source: AFP

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Sunday, September 21, 2008

Fears Mount Over European 2012 Championship Preparations

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainian officials have assured UEFA that their preparations for co-hosting Euro 2012 remain on course.

Kiev Olympic Stadium: Delay in renovation.

A dispute between the country's President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has resulted in a political split which requires urgent attention.

Should a new coalition not be formed in the coming weeks then Ukraine will hold its third parliamentary election in as many years.

The political unrest, along with fears regarding the construction of stadiums and the modernisation of the country's infrastructure, has seen Uefa lose faith in the project.

Responsibilities

A decision is set to be made next week regarding whether or not to take the European Championship away from Ukraine and co-hosts Poland.

However, a Ukrainian delegation has held discussions with UEFA officials in an attempt to appease the growing concerns.

"The deputy Prime Minister (Ivan Vasyunyk) said Euro 2012 became the first project in the history of Ukraine that united all political forces," said a statement released by the country's football federation.

"This will ensure that the political situation will not impact the country's preparations for hosting the championship in 2012 and on the government's responsibilities as promised to UEFA."

Renovation

UEFA are set to discuss the issue further at an executive meeting on 25th September.

The main area of concern at present centres around the renovation of the Kiev Olympic Stadium, where the final of the tournament is due to be held.

Construction was delayed by a year because of legal wrangling over an adjoining shopping centre which violated safety rules.

That centre is now due to be taken down, but concerns remain regarding whether too much time has already been lost.

Source: Sky Sports

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Russia Begins Elbowing Ukraine Out From Brazil's Space Program

MOSCOW, Russia -- "Germany, Brazil and Argentina have all expressed an interest in using the Ukrainian launch vehicle Cyclone-4 for orbiting their satellites," said Eduard Kuznetsov, deputy general director of Ukraine's National Space Agency. He said protocols were already drawn up for using it in 2011-2014.

Ukrainian launch vehicle Cyclone-4

Indeed, the Cyclone-4 project is crucial for Ukraine's future. If the project proceeds, it will benefit the Ukrainian space industry considerably.

To implement the project, the Ukrainian-Brazilian joint venture Alcantara Cyclone Space was set up. Its Alcantara space center on the Atlantic coast is close to the equator, and that is Brazil's asset.

The first advantage of that closeness is that it creates the best conditions for launching satellites into a so-called geostationary orbit (GSO). The second is safety considerations: in the case of an accident the fragments of a rocket would fall into the ocean.

The technology provides for up to 12 launches per year. But the possible figure is four to five launches: neither Ukraine nor Brazil have a niche for more in their space programs. To break even financially, the minimum number is six launches. In that case, all costs could be recouped within 10 to 12 years, and profits would start coming in.

In 2005, Ukrainian authorities said the rocket engineering specifications had been handed over to the huge Pivdenmash manufacturing facility in Dnepropetrovsk, which began making its parts.

The first launch of the Cyclone 4 from Alcantara was scheduled for 2006. But recurring political crises in Ukraine stalled financing. It is now clear that a quantity production of the Cyclone-4 at Pivdenmash will not begin until 2009, and launch facilities for it will be built in Brazil by 2011 at best.

And these are not the only snags. Most important is unstable Russian-Ukrainian relations. Russia is Ukraine's contractor. Most of the space infrastructure is being constructed by Russian industrial enterprises.

And first among them is the Design Bureau of Transport Engineering (KBTM), which built launch facilities for Cyclone-2 and Cyclone-3 at Plesetsk. The first-stage engines of the Ukrainian rocket have been developed by Russia's Energomash. Russia is also responsible for fuel components.

Furthermore, the American aerospace lobby looks askance at Ukraine's efforts to enter the world space market.

Another factor to consider is that Russia has proposed to Brazil they develop an environment-friendly launch vehicle, because Cyclone-4 is not ideal in that respect. It was, incidentally, one of the reasons why Kazakhstan banned the launches of its forerunners from Baikonur: they were using the same aggressive fuel.

When, in August 2003, a Brazilian VLS-1 rocket exploded at launch, Russia was the first and only country to rush in with help. It sent a large team of rocket experts to find out what happened. Their findings have proved very useful both for identifying the causes of the disaster and for planning measures to avoid a repeat of the tragedy.

Next, Russian engineers began assisting Brazil for increased safety and improved rocket technologies. Their efforts concerned the gradual conversion from solid-propellant engines to mixed fuel and then to fully liquid-propellant engines, while increasing power.

Russia has the world's best liquid rocket engines. They are regularly purchased even by the Americans to install on their heavy Atlas launchers. Japan also uses Russian rockets.

Brazil, however, is more interested in space technology, not ready-made products, because its main objective is to develop its own space rocket industry. Although Russia and Brazil are in different weight classes in space, Russian specialists can profit from suggestions by their Brazilian counterparts.

In the spring of this year, Russia and Brazil concluded an agreement to develop a family of launch vehicles as part of Brazil's Cruzeiro do sul (Southern Cross) program.

The Russian-Brazilian technological alliance will develop an all-purpose rocket based on Russia's Angara vehicle plus three types of power units. Two of them are under development with Brazil's full participation and are based on Russian liquid-propellant engines.

The first stages of Brazil's Gamma, Delta and Epsilon launchers will be powered by a unit based on the RD-191 engine developed for Russia's new Angara rocket.

The upper stage, which will be the same for all Southern Cross rockets, will be driven by an engine which is currently part of Russia's Molniya launcher. The third stage will be a solid-propellant booster. It has been developed by Brazilian engineers for an upgraded version of the VLS-1 and its modifications.

The Gamma launcher is part of the light-weight class, but using the near-equatorial position of the spaceport, it can place almost a ton of payload into a GSO. The Delta launcher (medium-weight class) differs from the Gamma by having four solid-propellant boosters attached to the first stage. Its payload deliverable to a GSO is 1.7 tons.

The heavy Epsilon launcher (its first stage consists of three identical units, the same as on the Gamma and Delta) can place a four-ton spacecraft in orbit, if it is launched from Alcantara.

These three almost fully unified rockets will cater to all ranges of payload needed now and likely to be needed in the future. Helped by Russia, Brazil will not only gain a chance to enter space on her own, but also to make commercial launches for other countries.

The Brazilian government is planning to allocate $1 billion for the project in the next six years. It has already set aside $650 million for the construction of five launch pads able to handle up to 12 launches per year.

Its commercial launches can bring Brazil between $60 million and $100 million every year. To pool its financial resources, the country has decided to cancel some of its cooperation agreements with other countries. Ukraine is a likely candidate for cancellation.

Source: RIA Novosti

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Ukraine Reverses Odessa-Brody Pipeline Flow

MOSCOW, Russia -- Ukranian politics are reflected in economy just as much as the president gets along with the prime-minister and the other way round. Reciprocal curtsies of the sworn friends accompany every serious business transaction.

Odessa-Brody pipeline (file photo).

And when production, processing and transportation of hydrocarbons is concerned, such nasty things happen that the oilmen’s tears streaming in both reverse direction and averse directions fill in the pipeline instead of the “black gold”.

On Aug. 15, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko signed a decree “On resolution adopted by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine on July 28, 2008 ‘About urgent measures to ensure the operation of the Odessa-Brody pipeline in the direction as designed.’ ”

The government was tasked with completing by Sept. 1, 2008, the necessary organizational and legal arrangements and ensuring that by the end of 2008 the Odessa-Brody pipeline operates in an averse regime. The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Raissa Bogatyreva is charged with supervision of the implementation of the decree. The Secretariat of the President has often criticized the government’s position with relation to starting the pipeline operation in an averse mode.

On Aug. 1, Andrei Goncharuk, the deputy chief of the Secretariat of Ukrainian President, said that recent pronouncements of the head of the government on the plans to operate the Odessa-Brody pipeline in the direction as initially designed show that the cabinet of ministers is determined to continue to sabotage the plans.

According to Goncharuk, the main goal of operating the Odessa-Brody pipeline in an averse direction is to ensure a flow of oil supplies from the Caspian and other regions to Ukrainian and international oil refineries. Besides, today this the only real opportunity to save the Ukranian oil refining industry from decline. Regrettably, though, the Ukranian president’s decree is not the final say in the protracted battle over the pipeline’s direction.

As early as July 1, Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko emphatically said that all agreements reached on supply of Caspian oil via the Odessa-Brody pipeline to EU countries are being complied with, including the agreements reached during the Kiev energy summit about supplying crude Caspian oil for this pipeline.

“Both parties, including the joint venture Sarmatia, are taking steps to implement the agreements reached at the previous meetings,” said Yushchenko adding that “there are no disputes over these issues at the level of the states.” Yes, it is very likely there will be no disputes at the level of the states, unless the state concerned is Ukraine.

On the same day, the prime-minister of Ukraine Yulia Timoshenko commented on the situation at a briefing in Ternopol. She believes that the plans for averse operation regime of the Odessa-Brody which are now being contemplated by the Secretariat of the Ukranian President are just a corrupt scheme similar to that of RosUkrEnergo.

The agreements that are due for signing have nothing in common with the international projects. This is yet another deal being hustled through by the President’s Secretariat,” emphasized the prime-minister. “Just like the RosUkrEnergo project fell through, just like the plans to take away from Ukraine the Black Sea shelf together with its biggest gas fields were thwarted, this trick will not come off either – appropriating the Odessa-Brody for their offshore firms, selling the crude oil used to fill the pipeline today and practically leaving Ukraine with nothing. Maybe this will happen sometime in the future, but I do not think this is going to happen any time in the nearest 20 years while our team is at the helm,” said Timoshenko.

Commenting on the written order whereby Timoshenko prohibits the director of the Ukrtransnafta board Igor Kirushin and his deputies to sign relevant documents and participate in meeting and consultations about oil transit via the Odessa-Brody pipeline before the government issues a special resolution, the head of the Ukranian President’s Secretariat Baloga reminded about the President’s Decree No. 474 signed in May this year which requires that all organizational and technical arrangements for ensuring an averse operation mode for the Odessa-Brody, as initially designed, be accomplished by the end of 2008.

Baloga firmly rejected the prime-minister Timoshenko’s allegations of corrupt intents in the plans operating the Odessa-Brody pipeline in an averse regime. Previously the President’s Secretariat said that the government was obstructing the signing of an agreement about management of the Odessa-Brody pipeline with a company of Igor Kolomoisky’s Private Group.

“A unique diversification of the Ukranian position in energy sector. A unique European project,” said Viktor Yushchenko on July 28, while opening the session of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

“Today in Europe there is no other project like the Odessa-Brody-EU pipeline, although there are three alternative pipeline projects,” added Yushchenko. With this argument in hand the president warned about possible consequences of delaying the implementation of the project itself. “We can lose the race if we continue the political debates around this project,” he said.

The National Security and Defense Council expressed its disapproval of the Cabinet of Ministers’ efforts to ensure the operation of the Odesa-Brody pipeline in an averse regime. Besides, the National Security and Defense Council ordered that the cabinet of ministers prior to September 1 review the proposals of an interagency task force and either approve its conclusions or submit its own proposals with regard to crude oil suppliers needed for operating the pipeline in an averse regime.

The announcement that the Odessa-Brody pipeline is to be filled with technological oil in the nearest future was made on July 1 during the general press-conference devoted to the results of the talks between the president of Ukraine and the president of Azerbaijan held in Baku. “Very soon we shall start a test run of the pipeline and evaluate these plans in action,” said Ilham Aliyev. The president of Azerbaijan added that presently work is underway to prepare a complete feasibility study of the project, which will give a full picture of the commercial advantages of this project.

He emphasized that the test run of oil for which Azerbaijan is ready will also fully demonstrate the potential of the project. Yet, the parties did not specify the date when the project was to begin only saying vaguely that this would happen “in the nearest future.”

In May 22-23 in Kiev the International Energy Security Summit took place, attended by delegations from nearly 30 countries. One of Ukraine’s main partners at the summit is EU. This was demonstrated when at the opening of the International Economic Forum in May the president Viktor Yushchenko said that the EU could provide $2.5 billion for renovation of the Ukrainian gas transportation network.

The new project was to have as its basis the Odessa-Brody-EU pipeline, and the need to complete the construction of the pipeline was one of the top issues of the summit’s agenda. The Czech Republic, Poland, the Baltic nations, Belarus and several other Central and Eastern European nations are interested in completing and putting into operation the pipeline as soon as possible.

Ukraine initially planned to use the Odessa-Brody pipeline for transporting Caspian gas and oil to Europe. When the construction was completed in 2002 the 674-kilometer-long pipeline, built at a cost of 550 million hryvnyas – the sum denominated in the as yet soft national currency, could annually transport up to 14 million tons of oil to Ukraine’s western border.

The cost of building the additional line of the Odessa-Brody pipeline reaching Poland will cost up to 350 million euro. Such was an estimate of the chairman of Ukrtransnafta Igor Kirushin. “The cost of building the new branch reaching Poland will be 300-350 million euro. I don’t think this is an awful lot of money. After we start operating the Ukrainian section of the Odessa-Brody in a mode as initially designed, it will be much easier to secure the money. We have the period from 2009 to 2010 to complete the pipeline construction,” said he. According to Kirushin, the Granherne company is figuring out the optimal route for the pipeline: whether it would lead up to Pock or to Adamowo-Zastawa. A final version of the feasibility study will be presented at the 4th Energy Summit in Baku in November.

At that time there were hopes that the initial operation mode of the pipeline would catch the interest of European governments and companies keen on ensuring security of energy supply.

However, in spite of the token gestures made by the potential partners in oil/gas supply and transit or the fact that influential auditors (for instance, Price Waterhouse Cpers) assessed the project as internationally competitive, the Odessa-Brody remained idle for three years.

Representatives of the Polish political circles and oil industry were in no hurry to extend the pipeline to Pock, and Central Asian suppliers were in no hurry to set aside oil from the already contracted volumes. So operating the pipeline in a reverse mode was the only possible alternative usage.

In 2004 Ukrtransnafta and a Russian-British joint venture TNK-BP signed an agreement providing for the transport of up to 9 million tons of Urals oil vie the link Mozyr-Brody-Yuzhny oil sea terminal for three years. Overall for the whole period when the pipeline was operated in a reverse mode (from late 2004 to May 1, 2008) 22,036,000 tons of crude oil was pumped through, Ukraine’s profits from the transit fees and harbor dues totaling $226.3 million.

By the end of 2006 the parties announced they were ready for further cooperation and struck an agreement providing for the transit of 9 million tons of Russian oil and gas via the same link annually until 2010.

As we can see, a reverse regime proved not that bad. Especially in the absence of realistic alternatives.

On July 21 the presidium of the government of Russia was doing exactly that – discussing supply of Russian oil and gas in connection with the issue of oil supply to the Czech Republic. “In effect, the Czechs are addressing their claims to a wrong party,” said the Russian deputy prime-minister Igor Sechin. “The Ukrainian plans for starting to operate the Odessa-Brody in a reverse regime this year has stirred concerns among Russian companies supplying oil to the Central and Eastern European markets and make them look for more stable transportation links. In particular, our companies are looking closer at routes through Novorossiisk and Primorsk which can ensure a more stable work and efficiency of supply,” said he.

However, the head of the Russian government Vladimir Putin opined in response to Igor Sechin’s statement, “This is not going to be a reverse mode, this will be an averse mode.” Obviously, this is what is going to happen.

Although Kiev is unpredictable. And it would be too early to make any conclusions at this stage.

Meanwhile, the directors of Galitchina oil refinery (Drogobych oil refinery, Lvov region) and Petrochemist of Ciscarpathian Region (Nadvirnyansk oil refinery, Ivano-Frankovsk region) accused the Ukrainian cabinet of minister of failure to adopt a decision to switch the Odessa-Brody pipeline to the Odessa-Brody direction. Such was the statement made during a press conference on July 22 by the head of the board of the Galitchina oil refinery Alexander Lazorko and the head of the board of the Petrochemist of Ciscarpathian Region Alexander Shilyaev.

According to them, memorandums of understanding were signed providing for transportation via the Odessa-Bordy link of 5 million tons of light Caspian oil annually for refining at two Western Urkanian refineries with a “pump or pay” payment scheme benefiting Urktransnafta. They added that Ukrtransnafta would have been getting as much money as it is getting now from pumping Russian oil from Brody to Odessa.

The prime-minister Yulia Timoshenko said she considered it indispensable that oil supplying countries participate in the project to start operating the Odessa-Brody pipeline in an averse mode (toward Brody). She told that at a briefing at the cabinet of ministers on July 30.

The prime-minister added that the cabinet of ministers will never allow that the Milbert Ventures company (Virgin Islands) sign contracts for supplying Caspian oil via the Odessa-Brody pipeline operating in an averse mode. “The cabinet of ministers would not support any strange schemes for operating the Odessa-Brody pipeline and so we will never support the partnership and de-facto shady privatization through an offshore company,” said she.

However, the government is not alone in its opposition to the president’s plans. On July 31 59 parliamentarians submitted to the Ukraine’s Constitutional Court a request to review the constitutionality of the Ukrainian president’s decree “About ensuring the operation of the Odessa-Brody pipeline in the direction as designed” of May 22, 2008 No. 474. In accordance with the Constitutional Court’s rules, the request has been submitted for review to the Court’s secretariat.

Reverse or averse? Is this really the question? The future of the Odessa-Brody pipeline depends solely on whether clients will be found. Otherwise Ukraine risks ending up with nothing, suffering the same defeat as when the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was built resulting in most Caspian oil being “syphoned off” via Turkey.

Thus, one of Ukarine’s most ambitious oil and gas projects initially conceived as an enhancer of the country’s security of energy supply and a boost to its international reputation in fact proved to be a big headache.

Source: Oil & Gas Eurasia

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Saturday, September 20, 2008

Black Sea Port Access Stokes Russia-Ukraine Tensions

SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine -- As the Kremlin seeks to reassert its sphere of influence around its borders and beyond, this home port for Russia's Black Sea fleet — marooned in the south of Ukraine after the breakup of the Soviet Union — has moved to the center of tensions between Russia and U.S. allies in the region.

Russian fleet in Sevastopol, Ukraine.

Some Ukrainian politicians worry that Russia will stoke anti-Western sentiments in Sevastopol and cities around it on the Crimean peninsula to create an opportunity to annex the area, the way Moscow did with two breakaway provinces in Georgia last month, or at least use its considerable influence here to push the central government in Kiev to drop plans to join the European Union and NATO.

Either move would heighten the rising tensions between Russia and the United States, which have returned to Cold War levels over the past year.

NATO Aspirations Unsettling

Georgia and Ukraine, with American backing, angered the Russian leadership with their NATO aspirations.

If they were to join, Russia's Black Sea coastline would be bracketed by members of the military organization.

Sergei Zayats, the administrator of Sevastopol's largest district, said he thought the Russians would be willing to resort to force to keep their ships docked in Crimea, where their fleet has operated since the 1780s.

"The events in Georgia show that this may happen at any time," said Zayats, who was appointed by Kiev.

Russia has said it has no plans along those lines.

"This is a myth brought to you from other countries that Crimea will be next," Vsevolod Loskutov, the No. 2 man in the Russian Embassy to Ukraine, told journalists last week.

"Both Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have repeated many times that we highlight our respect to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine," Loskutov said.

Histories Intertwined

The tension over Crimea is complicated by the intertwined histories of Ukraine and Russia. The region belonged to Russia until 1954, when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev handed it over to Ukraine.

At the time, the difference was largely semantic, but when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, many in Crimea would have rather not become part of an independent Ukraine.

In interviews on the streets of Sevastopol, college students, engineers and housewives alike said they sympathized with Russia far more than with Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's pro-Western president.

Any move to join NATO, they said, almost certainly would lead to a backlash.
"The majority of people here are against NATO," said Viktor Kiselyov, a local artist. "The reason is that NATO is confronting Russia, and Russia is us."

Probe Finds Violations

Though the Russian government denies issuing passports to residents of Crimea, a tactic used in Georgia to bolster claims that the Kremlin had to save its citizens there, the prosecutor's office in Sevastopol said an investigation that started two months ago already has found 1,500 residents with both Russian and Ukrainian passports, in violation of Ukrainian law.

Some of those passports were from the early 1990s, when the question of statehood was unclear.

But others were issued during the past few years, said Alexander Rubstov, an official in the prosecutor's office, who didn't say how many passports fell into each of those categories.

Rubstov said the inquiry in the city of about 430,000 residents still had a long way to go, and the numbers could rise.

Roman Zvarych, a top official in Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party, said he thought Russia had passed out "something in the neighborhood of several tens of thousands" of passports in Crimea, a charge Moscow has denied.

Source: Arizona Daily Star

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Georgia, Ukraine Seek UN Support Against Russia

KIEV, Ukraine -- The leaders of Georgia and Ukraine go to the United Nations next week hoping to shore up Western support for their future NATO accession faced with a militarily resurgent Russia.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko (L) and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili will speak at the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday.

Swept westwards in the "Rose" and "Orange" revolutions of 2003 and 2004, the ex-Soviet states are looking anxiously for renewed commitment to their Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

But beyond harsh words, Western powers have yet to define a strategic response to the war over Georgia's South Ossetia, in which Russia showed it was ready to use force to defend spheres of "privileged interest" in its former Soviet backyard.

"Young democracies in this region need the support of developed democracies," Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili will say in a speech to the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday, according to senior government official Kakha Lomaia.

"That's why developed democracies need to provide clear roadmaps to meet our European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations."

Russia's intervention in Georgia last month drew international condemnation, but no sanctions.

It deepened concern over the security of energy supplies bypassing Russia from the Caspian Sea to the West, and sharpened divisions between the United States and some European states over the wisdom of NATO's eastwards expansion.

Russia is incensed by the military alliance's promise of membership for Tbilisi and Kiev.

"NO COLLECTIVE SECURITY"

The Kremlin's decision to deploy forces in defence of pro-Moscow separatists in South Ossetia also rattled nerves in Ukraine, which accuses Russia of stoking tensions in Crimea, a region populated mainly by ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers.

Divisions over policy towards Russia contributed to the collapse this week of Ukraine's governing coalition, raising the prospect of a third parliamentary election in as many years.

"The Russia-Georgia conflict has shown that there is no collective security," said Andriy Goncharuk, foreign policy adviser to President Viktor Yushchenko. "And we have seen the predictable result -- what happens when one side is stronger than the other and there is nothing to offset that."

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Thursday the West should not give in to Russian "bullying".

But dependent on Russian gas and oil, some EU members -- notably France and Germany -- are anxious to avoid confrontation. In April, they blocked a U.S. bid to grant Georgia and Ukraine roadmaps to accession. A review is due in December.

An influential think tank said this week there was a risk of NATO enlargement policy dividing the West.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies said Washington would continue to advocate expansion to Tbilisi and Kiev, but "Europeans have a strong case to argue that it is in NATO's strategic interest to pause its enlargement policy".

"The West must not reply to (Russia's) defiant mood through a form of strategic autism, advancing its interests blind to the emotional response this can elicit from the Russian leadership."

Source: AlertNet

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Georgia's Stalin Shrine Belongs In Putin's Moscow

KINGSTON, Canada -- Russian troops should have removed the dictator's statue during their romp through Gori. Despite a genuine sympathy for the many innocent Georgians now falling victim to resurgent Russian revanchism, the gutting of Gori was long overdue.

Stalin statue in Gori, Georgia.

It is a cursed site, not so much because it’s where Iosif Dzhugashvili (better known by his pseudonym of Stalin) was born on Dec. 21, 1879, but because of its post-Soviet transgressions.

Inexplicably, the government of Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili and Gori’s city fathers permitted it to remain a center for the white-washing of Stalin’s brutal legacy, allowing for the veneration of the greatest mass-murderer in 20th Century Europe.

Not only did its Stalin Square frame what is, quite probably, the last original Stalin statue standing in Europe, but even the hovel in which he first stole breath was enshrined in a colonnaded building, part of a museum complex that once attracted thousands.

The most recent tourists were Russian soldiers, who began infiltrating Gori around August 13, although they have since decamped.

Just before they rolled in, the shrine’s intrepid director, a Stalin apologist named Robert Maglakelidze, spirited various unique artifacts away to safety, including the dictator’s military great coat, boots, pen, glasses, a used shaving brush, an open pack of cigarettes with 10 left untouched inside, and even one of his trademark pipes.

Now secured in the Tbilisi state museum, these items will be repatriated and put back on display when the museum re-opens.

Remarkably, given the firestorm Gori sustained under air and artillery bombardment and its subsequent looting by Ossetian irregulars, the Stalin museum was left unscathed, albeit dustier for all the shelling nearby.

It seems Georgia’s violators knew where they were going and what they were shelling.

Some troopers even erected a sign outside the city announcing: “J Stalin’s Home Country – Gori.” This begs the question - why would combat soldiers pause to do that? Was it out of admiration? That might seem preposterous, but not if one reads Sarah Mendelson and Theodore Gerber’s article “Failing the Stalin Test,” published in the Jan.-Feb. 2006 issue of the prestigious journal, Foreign Affairs.

Their extensive survey research confirmed how “a majority of young Russians ... do not view Stalin – a man responsible for millions of deaths and enormous suffering – with the revulsion he deserves.”

They began their commentary with a provocative statement: “Imagine that a scientific survey revealed that most Germans under 30 today viewed Hitler with ambivalence and that a majority thought he had done more good than bad. Imagine that about 20 percent said they would vote for him if he ran for president tomorrow. Now try to envision the horrified international response that would follow.”

Yet, when their results were revealed about Stalin, no significant outcry was heard. The crimes of communism, as personified by “Uncle Joe,” just do not excite us as much as Adolf’s evil-doing.

Only a month or so before Georgia’s dismemberment, other interesting, if preliminary, poll results were released.

Sponsored by the state-funded Rossiya TV channel, online respondents identified the most popular Russian. A commanding majority selected Stalin, even though his father was Ossetian and his mother Georgian. Meanwhile his “comrade” Lenin scored a distant third.

Stalin’s rehabilitation began around the centenary of his birth in 1979. It is yet again being promoted from the Kremlin, as plans for incorporating South Ossetia and Abkhazia into the Russian Federation were announced, international protests be damned.

How these minorities will fare inside a Russian-dominated imperium, whose masters have never shown any patience for regional autonomy or human rights – just go ask the Chechens - remains to be seen.

Of course, there are Georgians who know what Stalin was. They are not nostalgic for an imagined past when they were supposedly much better off under Moscow’s rule. These Georgians appreciate that their culture and historical experience give them a right, and good reason, to want to reconnect with the Western civilization of which they are part.

Their way back to where they, and for that matter, Ukraine, also belongs, can come only through membership in the European Union and NATO.

Lado Vardzelashvili, the Georgian governor whose office overlooks Stalin’s monument, gets that.

Pointing out that both Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev “think exactly the same way as Stalin,” he tried to cut a deal with the Russian general commanding troops around Gori, asking that they take the Stalin statue with them and “never come back.”

His offer was not accepted. That’s a pity.

Europe’s last statue of Stalin would be far more appropriately located in today’s Moscow than in tomorrow’s Gori.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Friday, September 19, 2008

Hryvnia Dives While Ukraine Stocks Plunge

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine’s national currency, the hryvnia, lost value rapidly against the U.S. dollar over the past two days, wiping out all gains it had achieved at an unusual overnight appreciation four months ago.

Ukraine’s national currency plunged where 500 Hryvnia = $100 US.

The hryvnia closed at 5.03 hryvnias against the dollar in trading between commercial banks Thursday, compared with 4.93/dollar on Wednesday and 4.80/dollar on Tuesday, dealers said.

The hryvnia’s rapid decline comes amid a drastic plunge in Ukrainian stock market valuations with the PFTS, the country’s main stock index, falling more than 70% since the beginning of the year.

The National Bank of Ukraine, however, failed to react to the decline, leaving the hryvnia at 4.85 to the dollar on Thursday in the official exchange rate, which is used by businesses in settlements with the government.

The NBU pledged to defend the hryvnia within the band of 4.65 and 5.05 to the dollar through the end of 2008. On Monday the NBU widened the band to 4.60 and 5.10 hryvnias to the dollar in 2009.

The NBU did not intervene at the trading Wednesday and Thursday, but any further depreciation of the hryvnia will show whether the bank is willing to spend its foreign exchange reserves to support the band it had earlier pledged to defend.

The NBU’s reserves rose to $38 billion as of early September, up 17.3% from early January, according to the bank.

The developments underscore high volatility on both, forex and stock markets, reflecting major stress that has been sweeping the Russian stock markets and the depreciation of the ruble against the dollar.

The hryvnia’s decline accelerated upon release of data showing that Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit has increased sharply, responding to high natural gas prices, while the government had predicted the deficit would keep rising over next three years.

Ukraine recorded $11.05 billion in deficit while trading with goods in January through July, a stunning increase from $5.11 billion reported in the same period a year ago, the committee reported.

Ukraine recorded $11.4 billion in foreign trade deficit in 2007, up from $6.7 billion in 2006, according to the committee.

But the government said Tuesday the deficit will continue to increase at high pace during the next three years, rising to $25.2 billion in 2009, $31 billion in 2010 and $34.2 billion in 2011.

The released figures suggest that demand for hard currency will be steadily growing in Ukraine as businesses will need more hard currency to pay for the increasing imports.

Ukraine’s imports rose 60% on the year to $51.2 billion in January-July, while exports had increased 46.6% to $40.1 billion in the same period, according to the committee.

The trade deficit has been so far fueled by high gas prices charged by Russia and by robust goods imports that had accelerated since the controversial 4%-appreciation of the hryvnia against the dollar on May 21.

The NBU, which had been keeping the hryvnia at 5.05 to the dollar since April 20, 2005, suddenly let the hryvnia to gain to 4.85 to the dollar overnight, triggering major criticism within the business community.

Ukraine’s steelmakers, the country’s biggest exporters, complained the rapid appreciation would slow exports and boost imports.

But the government of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko pressed for the appreciation in hopes of slowing down rampant inflation this year.

Source: Ukrainian Journal

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Ukrainian PM Refuses To Stand Down And Assails President

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's power struggle intensified yesterday as Yulia Tymoshenko refused to resign as prime minister and made light of an alleged poisoning plot that almost killed President Viktor Yushchenko in 2004.

Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko: refuses to quit.

Mr Yushchenko's party withdrew from the ruling alliance after he accused Ms Tymoshenko of trying to oust him with the help of the pro-Russian opposition, but she has rejected his calls to step down and refuses to accept that her government should disband.

The relationship between the leaders of the 2004 Orange Revolution — which overturned the fraudulent election victory of the Kremlin-backed opposition chief — collapsed because of what Mr Yushchenko calls Ms Tymoshenko's overweening ambition and what she calls his desire to undermine her popularity.

Before being interviewed as a witness in the alleged dioxin poisoning which left Mr Yushchenko badly disfigured, Ms Tymoshenko said yesterday: "The main poisoning is the poisoning with unlimited power, a serious intoxication in the presidential secretariat."

That came a day after she launched a fierce verbal attack on Mr Yushchenko, who has threatened to call elections unless a new coalition is formed within a month. He says Ms Tymoshenko has already created a de facto alliance with the opposition to secure Moscow's support, or at least acquiescence, to her expected bid for the presidency in 2010.

"Since 2004, this president has managed to destroy everything: people's faith in the ideals of the revolution and faith in the president himself — only five per cent still support him," Ms Tymoshenko said. "Unfortunately, this president will leave a legacy of shattered remnants of the 'orange' promises and democratic coalitions, of his own team and even of his friends and his own political standing."

She said it would be "irresponsible" to call elections in the current volatile financial climate, but insisted that "should that situation occur, we will have no qualms". Opinion polls put Ms Tymoshenko's bloc and Viktor Yanukovich's opposition group far ahead of Mr Yushchenko's party.

Amid fears that Moscow could follow its intervention in Georgia with attempts to destabilise Ukraine's mostly ethnic Russian Crimea region, Mr Yushchenko oversaw military exercises intended to show that his country could "defend its borders".

President Dmitry Medvedev, meanwhile, said Russia was "ready for honest, all-encompassing, deep and absolutely mutually profitable co-operation with Ukraine. No opportunism, no new foreign policy sympathies, no internal crises must be allowed to undermine our relations," he added.

Source: The Irish Times

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Ukraine President Blasts Rival PM Over Army

RIVNE MILITARY TRAINING BASE, Ukraine -- President Victor Yushchenko accused his prime minister on Thursday of humiliating Ukraine's army with inadequate funding, intensifying a confrontation between the two former allies over the country's future direction.

The 'odd couple' of Ukrainian politics, President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Julia Tymoshenko (file photo), are engaged in a fierce power struggle.

Yushchenko was attending military exercises in western Ukraine as politicians in Kyiv proceeded with talks to patch up a coalition in parliament linked to the 2004 "Orange Revolution" or find a viable alternative combination.

Should they fail in 30 days of negotiations to come up with a team commanding a majority, the president can dissolve the chamber and call an election -- the third in as many years.

The demise of the coalition plunges Ukraine into further uncertainty, though both parliament and the government continue to function.

Many of the pro-Western ideals of the 2004 revolution remain unfulfilled amid four years of turmoil between its two main proponents and the future policies of whatever coalition emerges from the talks are uncertain.

Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko stood side-by-side in the 2004 protests but have since been engaged in unrelenting attacks on each other.

Addressing military brass and top officials, the president accused the government of allocating insufficient finances in the budget to build a modern, professional army.

"Such a budget is unacceptable to me as president. I cannot support it and will never support it," Yushchenko, dressed in battle fatigues, like other officials, told the gathering.

"We have to put a stop to this improper political and psychological approach which has been allowed to flourish."

Ukraine, he said, spent less than 1 percent of its gross domestic product on the military, far less than its neighbours.

He said $7-8 per day was allocated for feeding a Ukrainian servicemen -- a quarter of what Russia spent, he said. And "contract" volunteers in the army earned the equivalent of $175 per month -- a fifth of what a Kiev taxi driver took home.

"My question to the government is this: when will we at long last treat our own soldiers with respect?" Yushchenko said.

MOCK OPERATION

Yushchenko watched as 2,500 servicemen staged a mock operation to halt an attack across a river.

Tanks rolled out, flanked by armoured vehicles, with helicopters and jet fighters offering support from the air.

Ukraine's army, reduced to 200,000 from 700,000 in Soviet times, is plagued by outdated equipment and servicemen lacking in motivation. Tymoshenko wants to abolish conscription, but such plans have been put off until at least next year.

"I live in barracks with no prospects for the future. They keep promising, but we see nothing," Oleksander, a "contract" volunteer earning about $300, said during the exercises.

"I will stay to the end of the contract and leave. I've seen new people come in here on contracts, spend two or three days in the barracks and then leave for good."

The "orange" coalition unravelled when Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party abandoned its alliance with Tymoshenko's bloc.

The prime minister, who formed a tactical voting alliance with ex-premier Viktor Yanukovich, the "orange" camp's adversary in 2004, has shown no signs of compromising.

The two groups joined forces again in parliament on Thursday in giving initial approval to a law making it a criminal offence to dissolve parliament illegally.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

How Fitting That The Orange Revolution Ends On Gongadze’s Anniversary

WASHINGTON, DC -- How fitting that the democratic (that is orange) coalition ceased to exist on 16 September, the annual anniversary of Georgi Gongadze’s disappearance eight years ago.

Slain reporter Georgi Gongadze.

Gongadze’s beheaded body was found near Kyiv two months after his abduction by policemen and it remains unburied.

Gongadze’s brutal murder has gone unpunished.

Three lower ranking policemen convicted earlier this year are merely scapegoats and their trial was a parody of justice.

The organisers remain free, have committed “suicide” or have been permitted to flee abroad.

President Yushchenko has not fulfilled his pledge to Ukrainian voters during the 2004 elections or to the Council of Europe after he was elected that he was honour bound to investigate the organisers of Gongadze’s murder.

The ending of the democratic coalition ends the period of Ukraine’s history associated with the Orange Revolution.

Two political leaders who supported the Orange Revolution defected to the Party of Regions in 2006 and 2007 (O.Moroz and A.Kinakh).

This months crisis has irrevocably split the last remaining two orange leaders, Tymoshenko and Yushchenko.

Without Gongadze’s sacrifice and the ensuing popular mobilisation in the Kuchmagate crisis we would have never seen either Yushchenko’s election four years ago or the Orange Revolution that so changed Ukraine’s international image and gave hope to millions of Ukrainians that there would be real change after a decade of L.Kuchma’s presidency.

Without the Kuchmagate crisis Tymoshenko would not have been radicalised by her imprisonment and Yushchenko would have never been pushed into opposition when his government was removed.

How therefore very fitting that we therefore say “Goodbye” to the Orange Revolution on Gongadze’s anniversary.

The last four years of orange in-fighting and Yushchenko’s undermining of two Tymoshenko governments in 2005 and 2008 (as well as preventing one from taking office in 2006) will remain a sad passage in Ukraine’s history of wasted opportunities.

Source: Taras Kuzio Blog

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Ukraine And Georgia Are Not Yet Ready To Join NATO

WASHINGTON, DC -- William J. Burns, the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, told Senate hearings in the U.S. Congress on Wednesday that there was no talk of immediate NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine because none of the two countries were ready to join the alliance yet.

William J. Burns, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.

At the same time, he emphasized that the U.S. administration would seek the inclusion of the two former Soviet republics in the Membership Action Plan (MAP). Its aim is to assist those countries, which wish to join the Alliance in their preparations.

Mr. Burns paid special attention to the fact that the MAP shouldn’t be regarded as an invitation to join NATO or a promise of future membership for Ukraine or Georgia.

The U.S. under secretary of state admitted that some U.S. partners in Europe, including France and Germany, have objections to Kiev’s and Tbilisi’s accession to the Membership Action Plan (MAP). The NATO foreign ministers are to meet in December to discuss the matter.

William Burns hesitated to predict the meeting’s outcome.

Source: ITAR-TASS

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Popular Rock Star, Orange Revolution Hero Resigns From Rada

KIEV, Ukraine -- Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, a famous rock musician and a hero of the Orange Revolution, resigned from parliament in disgut with the nation's politics. The never­-ending absurdity of Ukrainian politics is becoming too exhausting and frustrating not only for common Ukrainians, but for the show participants themselves.

Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, popular rock star of Okean Elzy, resigned his seat in parliament in disgust.

Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, a famous rock musician and member of pro­-presidential Our Ukraine ­People’s Self ­Defense faction in parliament, resigned as a deputy.

“Political life in the state has narrowed down to the ruthless fight for power. Not only moral principles, but national interests, to which politicians of all colors and camps frequently appeal, have become victims of this clash,” Vakarchuk said in a statement. “Under such circumstances, the only way to be yourself is to leave. To stay means escape for me, escape from accountability before the people, and to break my oath of faithfulness to the people.”

Vakarchuk’s statement came soon after a new round of tag-­of-­war within the ruling coalition, and then its collapse.

The 33­ year-­old Vakarchuk said his decision to resign the parliament was a conscious and considered, but difficult step. “In my opinion, the Verkhovna Rada’s current format has not fulfilled its major role – to create a face of Ukraine as a modern European state,” he explained.

The front man of Ukraine’s top rock band Okean Elzy, Vakarchuk was one of the faces of the Orange Revolution in 2004, when he regularly gave performances on the country’s main stage in the cold, snowy days. As a result, he ran for parliament on the pro­-presidential Our Ukraine list under number 15 during last year’s parliamentary election.

A year on, Vakarchuk has quit his political career. “I was ready to accept rules of political struggle for achieving certain aims. But when you see that struggle becomes a self-­sufficient game where players do not need anyone, everything that takes place there just loses any sense,” the musician said.

Rada Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who has to announce Vakarchuk’s statement during the session, said he understands his ex-­colleague. “I told him frankly that I share his position,” Yatsenyuk told the press.

Vakarchuk said he is not going to stay out of sight. “I am returning to an active public life. I am returning with faith that there are many of us,” he said.

While musician Vakarchuk has quit the parliament, his father, 61­-year old Ivan Vakarchuk, is still working as Minister for Education.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Eight Years Of Shame

KIEV, Ukraine -- Eight years after the murder that helped spark a popular uprising against Ukraine's entrenched and corrupt elite, justice has not arrived in the Georgiy Gongadze case.

People remember slain journalist Georgiy Gongadze on Sept. 16, the eighth anniversary of a crime that helped spark 2004's Orange Revolution.

Those who ordered and organized Georgiy Gongadze’s killing have never been punished, while three men convicted of the actual murder in 2000 are in prison and a fourth is missing.

The massive crowds are long gone from the 2004 democratic Orange Revolution that sought to rid the nation of a rigged presidential election and other abuses of ex­President Leonid Kuchma’s era. In their place, on the Sept. 16 anniversary of Gongadze’s disappearance, a relative trickle of mourners kept the memories – and pursuit of justice – alive.

Ukraine’s leaders were noticeably absent from the Independence Square memorial services, despite their repeated promises that “bandits will be behind bars” and “justice is worth fighting for.” And the country’s journalists uttered barely a peep in solidarity with Gongadze and other slain comrades.

Gongadze’s mother, Lesia, refused to attend any public services for her son this year. “I never saw my son dead… what I saw [the decomposing headless body] does not belong to my son. No death certificate has been issued,” she told Deutsche Welle radio.

Lesia Gongadze requested that Sept. 16 be recognized as a day of mourning for all Ukrainian journalists who died unnatural deaths. At a requiem service held at Kyiv’s Independence Square, the memories of 63 journalists who “died prematurely” since independence were honored with eight minutes of silence.

The 2000 kidnapping and murder of Gongadze, who railed against the corruption of the Kuchma era, resonated throughout Ukraine and the rest of the world. The founder of the Ukrainska Pravda online newspaper, Gongadze exposed fraud and corruption within ruling circles. He publicly posed hard­hitting questions to leading politicians, including Kuchma.

He disappeared late on Sept. 16, 2000, while on his way home and after formally complaining to Ukraine’s general prosecutor about being harassed and shadowed by police. His beheaded corpse was found 130 kilometers south of Kyiv in November.

That month, parliamentarian Oleksandr Moroz publicly disclosed the existence of taped conversations purportedly recorded by former Kuchma bodyguard Mykola Melnychenko. The bombshell tapes implicated the ex­president and numerous aides in a host of crimes, including the abduction of Gongadze.

But just as the investigation petered out into whether the events described on the tapes actually happened, the Gongadze investigation lost traction – or was thwarted – depending on one’s perspective.

In March, a Kyiv court sentenced three former police services employees convicted of killing Gongadze. They are to spend 12 to 13 years behind bars. But people suspected or accused of ordering and organizing the murder remain at large. Notable among them is police general Oleksiy Pukach, who has variously been reported to be in Israel, Ukraine and even India. Three other high­level police officials wanted as witnesses died under mysterious circumstances in a domino effect of deaths.

The general prosecutor’s office is “doing nothing but imitating investigation” into who ordered and organized the killing of Gongadze, said the lawyer of Gongadze’s widow, Myroslava, on Sept. 15.

Lawyer Valentyna Telychenko said that officials justify the lack of progress by claiming that Gongadze case “belongs to the category of cases that will never be solved, like [the assassination of U.S. president John] Kennedy.”

Melnychenko says that, on the recordings, Kuchma can be heard discussing Gongadze 14 times over a four­month time period.

In August 2008, Moroz – the man who first blew the whistle on Gongadze’s murder – surprised journalists when he said that he does not think Kuchma ordered the death.

“Kuchma’s [emotional] complexes were used: his hot temper and lack of restraint. His statements were twisted and used very well. I do not think he has anything to do with the journalist’s death,” Moroz said a few days before Kuchma’s lavish 70th birthday celebrations.

Melnychenko, the former member of Kuchma’s personal security detail who claims to have recorded the president’s conversation in 2000, had a very different assessment of who is to blame for the stalled investigation.

He told the Kyiv Post that the current prosecutorial team working on the case has done everything possible to move the case forward and that the lack of progress is now the fault of the United States. In 2001, Melnychenko was granted asylum in the United States when he fled Ukraine in fear for his life.

Melnychenko showed a letter he received from Ukraine’s general prosecutor’s office in July. In the letter, the senior investigator in the Gongadze case provides a short history of year­long efforts to get the FBI to conduct a forensic investigation of Melnychenko’s recording and equipment.

According to Melnychenko’s letter, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe received confirmation from the U.S. government in September of last year that FBI experts will take part in the forensics examination. Then, in July of this year, when Ukrainian prosecutors met with U.S. representatives in Kyiv, the Americans “categorically declared that the government and law enforcement bodies of the USA… will not participate in the international examination, but do not oppose that the handing over [of recordings and equipment] take place in the United States, in the Embassy of Ukraine in the United States,” according to the letter Melnychenko showed.

Melnychenko said the original recordings and equipment are safe and sound in the United States.

“If the recordings and equipment were fake, I would be criminally liable not only in Ukraine but in the U.S. as well,” he said.

Melnychenko said that the FBI’s refusal has political reasons. “Many Ukrainians hoped for U.S. support. Ukraine extended its hand, but the U.S. chopped it off,” Melnychenko said. “The recordings contain a conversation where [former SBU chief Leonid] Derkach tells Kuchma that Bush Junior will be the next president of the United States. This was in the summer of 2000, months before the election. Derkach told Kuchma that there is a person in Bush’s entourage, an adviser, whom the Ukrainian secret services have influence over. The Ukrainian mafia has thrown a lot of money at Bush and now America, like Pontius Pilate, is washing its hands,” he said.

The U.S. government denied Melnychenko’s allegations. “We have and will continue to respond to all requests from the government of Ukraine for assistance on a broad range of law enforcement issues. This is because we continue to support the rule of law in Ukraine. We do not comment on individual law enforcement cases,” said Nancy B. Pettit, spokeswoman at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Mykhailo Svystovych, a civic activist for the nongovernmental Maidan Alliance, keeps on organizing memorial services in Kyiv every Sept. 16. Despite the rain and cold, this year’s requiem gathered more people than a year ago. “All 500 candles were given out,” Svystovych said. More than 2,000 candles were used to spell out “Gia,” the diminutive of Gongadze’s first name. The event was ignored by leading politicians, including the president and prime minister, who built their political popularity on promises to solve the Gongadze and other cases.

“They promised to solve the case to the end. They should be ashamed,” Svystovych said.

Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky attended the event. The next day, his Khreshchatyk newspaper ran a front page photo with the mayor holding a candle at the ceremony. Most newspapers in the capital city simply ignored the event.

“These events provide too much speculation on Gongadze,” said Roman Skrypin, a veteran journalist and friend to Gongadze.

“There were a lot of young people at the [Kyiv] service, 20 year olds that never knew Gongadze,” Svystovych said. He said that social networking sites were instrumental in generating interest among youth.

Requiems for Gongadze were also held in Chernihiv, Lviv and Halych.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Ukraine PM Refuses To Resign As Crisis Deepens

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko on Wednesday refused to resign as a political crisis provoked by the Georgian conflict deepened following the collapse of the pro-Western ruling coalition.

Yulia Tymoshenko was an icon of the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine.

Asked at a press conference whether she would resign as required in a coalition pact, Tymoshenko said: "The coalition has not collapsed... We are not a flock of sheep who jump into the abyss just because one sheep has done so."

Her comments appeared to refer to a decision by her former ally, President Viktor Yushchenko, to pull his party out of a coalition with her Tymoshenko Bloc after she approved legislation sharply reducing the president's powers.

Yushchenko has warned against Russian interference in the political crisis, which was provoked by discord over Russia's war with Georgia and charges by the president's allies that Tymoshenko committed "high treason" for not supporting Georgia enough.

Earlier on Wednesday, parliamentary speaker Arseny Yatsenyuk announced his resignation to lawmakers in accordance with the coalition deal that brought Tymoshenko to power after parliamentary elections last year.

"You have to come to power in a dignified way and you have to leave power in a dignified way too. That's why I'm resigning," Yatsenyuk said, a day after announcing the collapse of the coalition between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko.

Ukrainian newspapers played down the prospects of a new coalition agreement, predicting early elections that would be the third parliamentary vote in Ukraine in two years of bitter political infighting.

"It seems there is more more chance for a reconciliation" between Yuschenko and Tymoshenko, said the popular Gazeta po-Kievski daily.

The pro-Russian opposition Regions Party and the Tymoshenko Bloc "have received the order to prepare as actively as possible for new elections," reported the business daily Ekonomicheskie Izvestia.

Under the same coalition agreement that requires Tymoshenko to resign, President Viktor Yushchenko has the right but not the obligation to call early elections if no new coalition is created before mid-October.

Tymoshenko and Yushchenko were the icons of the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution in the country of 47 million people, but since then have been embroiled in persistent and sharp disagreements on domestic political issues.

Last month, Yushchenko's backers accused Tymoshenko of "high treason" for allegedly siding with Moscow by abstaining from a vote imposing restrictions on Russia's Black Sea fleet, based in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol.

Yushchenko, a strong supporter of Georgia in its conflict with Russia, had sought to impose the restrictions after Moscow deployed the fleet off Georgia's coast during the conflict.

Tymoshenko has rejected the charge, saying she is no Kremlin ally.

Source: AFP

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Ukraine Prez: Russia Wants To Destabilize Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- President Viktor Yushchenko accused Russia on Tuesday of trying to destabilize Ukraine by encouraging separatists in the Crimea, as fears grow about Russia's willingness to throw its weight around the former Soviet Union.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko gestures during an interview with The Associated Press in Kiev, Ukraine, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2008. Yushchenko on Tuesday accused Russia of seeking to destabilize his country by inciting separatist sentiments in its volatile Crimean peninsula, but vowed the Kremlin will not succeed.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Yushchenko sought to tamp down criticism of his leadership in Ukraine after the collapse of his pro-Western coalition raised the possibility of a third parliamentary election in as many years.

Russia's war with Georgia last month rattled Yushchenko's pro-Western government, which like Georgia has pushed for membership in NATO and the European Union. Many Ukrainians wonder whether Ukraine will be the next victim of Russia's drive to stop NATO's expansion to its borders.

Many fear Moscow could lay claim to Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that once belonged to Russia and is now home to Russia's Black Sea fleet. More than half its residents are ethnic Russians.

Yushchenko said Russia was interested in causing "internal instability" in parts of Ukraine.

"Without a doubt, such scenarios exist," he said.

"For some of our partners, instability in Ukraine is like bread with butter," he said.

Yushchenko said Ukraine was too big and strong to give in to threats from Russia or a repeat of the war in Georgia, which resulted in Russia invading the country, routing its military and occupying large swaths of its territory. Moscow has recognized two breakaway Georgian regions as independent nations.

"Will they repeat the Georgian scenario?" Yushchenko asked. "For sure, no."

"Ukraine is not Georgia," he said. "I think that today to deal with a country like Ukraine in such an inconsiderate manner ... is not a good idea for anyone."

Russia wants to continue leasing the Sevastopol naval base in the Crimea from Ukraine after the current agreement expires in 2017. Yushchenko said the war with Georgia, with Russian warships based at Sevastopol participating, showed again that the Russian navy must leave Crimea.

Ukrainian officials also have accused Moscow of stirring trouble with claims that the Crimea belongs to Russia and by allegedly giving Russian passports to thousands of Crimeans to stoke separatist sentiments.

Yushchenko, who has made NATO membership the central theme of his four-year presidency, promised that Ukraine would eventually join the Western alliance, and he vowed to overcome domestic resistance to NATO. Opinion polls show more than half of Ukrainians oppose membership, with opposition strongest in the Russian-speaking regions in the east and south, including Crimea.

Yushchenko, wearing a striped black suit and red tie, spoke and gestured confidently during the 30-minute interview. His face looked nearly healed of the pock-like scars caused by the dioxin poisoning that briefly knocked him out of the 2004 presidential election race. He has suggested the near-fatal poisoning was masterminded in Russia.

Yushchenko spoke hours after his coalition was declared dead, starting a 30-day countdown for lawmakers to either form a new alliance or call elections.

Yushchenko said the collapse did not threaten the country's tumultuous democracy. He accused his coalition partner Yulia Tymoshenko — the prime minister who was his ally in the 2004 Orange Revolution — of betraying national interests and acting selfishly.

The alliance between the two leaders' parties disintegrated amid infighting ahead of the 2010 presidential election, in which both expect to compete.

Yushchenko's allies pulled out of the coalition after Tymoshenko sided with opposition lawmakers to curtail presidential powers. Yushchenko again accused Tymoshenko of acting on the Kremlin's behalf by failing to condemn the war in Georgia and of seeking to retain power at all costs ahead of the vote.

Tymoshenko said in a statement before the interview that she hoped Parliament would find a way out of the crisis.

Analysts believe that the next coalition may include the Russia-friendly Party of Regions and be more responsive to Moscow's demands.

Source: AP

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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Ukraine Government Collapses Over Georgia War

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine plunged into fresh political turmoil today when its pro-Western government collapsed amid recriminations over Russia's war with Georgia.

The pro-Western coalition of Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko (Above) and President Yushchenko (Below) has formally split.

The Speaker of Parliament formally dissolved the coalition between the party of Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko and that of her former Orange revolution ally, President Viktor Yushchenko. The announcement ended hopes that the two sides could patch up their differences after Mr Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party withdrew from the coalition 10 days ago.

The Speaker, Arseny Yatsenyuk, said that parties now had 30 days to try to build a new majority in parliament or face elections, just a year after Ukraine last went to the polls. He said: "I would not call this an apocalypse. It is a challenge for democracy, but I hope we will overcome this challenge together."

The crisis has exposed deep fissures within the pro-Western forces who came to power after the 2004 revolution as the rival leaders jockey for advantage ahead of presidential elections expected late next year. The divisions could open the way for the pro-Russian Party of Regions, led by their bitter rival Viktor Yanukovych, to return to power and tilt Ukraine towards Moscow once again.

Last month's war in Georgia sparked a sharp escalation in tensions after aides to President Yushchenko accused Mrs Tymoshenko of "high treason" for not condemning the Kremlin's actions. Mr Yushchenko openly backed Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili and restricted the movement of Russia's Black Sea Fleet from the port of Sevastopol during the conflict.

Mr Yushchenko then accused Mrs Tymoshenko of a "political and constitutional coup d’etat” after her party sided with the Party of Regions to vote through restrictions on presidential powers. Our Ukraine's parliamentary leader described the alliance as a "pro-Kremlin majority" and said that the new legislation was “just what the Kremlin has been asking certain political forces to do”.

Mrs Tymoshenko rejected the allegations and blamed the President for "destroying" the coalition, saying that he was seeking to damage her popularity with voters to weaken her chances of succeeding him.

Their split comes at a time of heightened concern in the European Union and Nato that Ukraine could be the next target of Russian interference as the Kremlin flexes its muscles in its former Soviet neighbours. Tensions are already running high over the future of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, a region whose population is strongly pro-Russian.

Mr Yushchenko insists that the fleet must leave when a lease agreement expires in 2017. But Rear-Admiral Andrei Baranov, deputy head of the fleet, said yesterday: "We are not planning to go anyway. There are no options."

Mrs Tymoshenko will continue as Prime Minister while she seeks to build a fresh cabinet, though she has previously ruled out any coalition with the Party of Regions. She will have to resign if a new majority is not in place by the middle of October.

Ukraine would then face its third parliamentary election in two years, extending the political crisis that has paralysed the country's drive to seek membership of Nato and the EU. Nato countries are due to decide whether to offer Ukraine a Membership Action Plan in December, at about the same time as elections would be taking place.

Russia is bitterly opposed to Ukraine's Nato aspirations and has threatened to target nuclear missiles at its neighbour if it joins the alliance. Europe and the United States fear that the Kremlin may seize the opportunity to stir up anti-western sentiment, particularly in Crimea, during the elections.

The US Vice President Dick Cheney met Mr Yushchenko and Mrs Tymoshenko during a visit to Ukraine's capital Kiev this month and urged them to unite in the face of threats to the country's security. He told them that Ukraine’s best hope was to be “united with other democracies”.

Source: Times Online

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Ukraine Coalition Likely To Be Pronounced Dead

KIEV, Ukraine -- Parliament is likely to pronounce Ukraine's pro-Western coalition dissolved on Tuesday, opening the way for tortuous talks on piecing together a new, viable governing combination after four years of upheaval.

Speaker of Parliament Arseniy Yatsenyuk

The current coalition, made up of groups led by President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, collapsed this month when the president's allies walked out.

The two stood side-by-side in the 2004 "Orange Revolution" that swept the president to power, but with Tymoshenko twice serving as premier, they have sniped constantly.

Relations with Russia have deteriorated sharply, largely over the president's drive to join NATO and his denunciation of Russian intervention in Georgia.

Chairman Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the coalition was all but dead after no compromise was found in 10 days of talks. He urged politicians to quickly find a combination liable to work.

"It must be understood that we have very little time to restore the old coalition or build a new one," he told top parliamentarians. "Let's not pretend that nothing is happening."

Fifth Channel television said Tymoshenko's parliamentary group met into the evening, with its leaders hoping to patch up a compromise with the president's allies.

Should the "orange" coalition be abandoned, politicians have 30 days more to work out ways to patch it up or produce a new grouping able to secure a majority. Such talks dragged on for weeks after inconclusive elections in 2006 and 2007.

Should they fail, the president may dissolve parliament and call what would be the third such election in as many years. All major parties stand to gain little from a new poll.

Yushchenko and Tymoshenko appeared entrenched in their positions as all politicians turn their attention to their chances in a presidential election due by 2010.

The president's Our Ukraine party quit after denouncing a vote to cut presidential powers in which Tymoshenko joined with the more Russia-friendly party of ex-premier Viktor Yanukovich.

Tymoshenko holds the second largest group in the 450-seat chamber after Yanukovich's Regions Party and says it is up to the president to preserve the legacy of the 2004 Revolution.

New combinations could include a formal alliance between Tymoshenko and Yanukovich, initially declared winner of the 2004 presidential election only to lose a rerun when the result was overturned in the courts.

News reports said Volodymyr Lytvyn, a centrist with the smallest faction in parliament, was also involved in talks.

Two polls published in recent days show Tymoshenko's bloc and Yanukovich's Regions Party vying for the lead with about 20 percent each, far ahead of Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party.

Source: Washington Post

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Georgia War Sparks Political Battle In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- They are at each other's throats again, this country's political lions: the president whose face is pocked from the poison that didn't quite kill him four years ago, and the prime minister with the golden braid who once fought alongside him in the name of democracy.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko arrives last week at the prosecutor general's office in Kiev.

The president's office now calls Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko a traitor who refuses to speak out against Moscow. She shoots back that President Viktor Yushchenko is a loose cannon who has antagonized Russia to the point of endangering Ukraine.

The war in Georgia is over. But the war over the war in Georgia rages unabated in Ukraine, the former Soviet state that, like Georgia, has drawn the wrath of Moscow by building ties with the West. The collapse of this country's ruling coalition is widely expected to become official this week, the final gasp of a threadbare alliance that has barely hung together in recent months.

The delicate balance was upended by a widening dispute over how to respond to a newly aggressive Russia. The political turmoil is, in part, early jockeying for the 2010 presidential election, but it is also a clash over the existential angst that bedevils this country, where identity is stretched awkwardly between Russia and the West.

The war between Russia and Georgia has brought a sense of crisis and anxiety to the region. Fattened on oil and gas riches, Moscow has made it plain that it intends to exert power on neighbors formerly part of the Soviet Union, that it feels justified in demanding "privileged interests," as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev explained last month.

More than anyplace else, that means Ukraine, bonded to Moscow by deep, ancient imperial and cultural ties. To the fury of Moscow, Ukraine has emerged as a close ally of the United States, its leaders berating Russia as they lobby for membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But many Ukrainians continue to feel a strong affection and loyalty toward Russia.

Today, instead of pulling together and steeling for geopolitical maneuvers, the leaders of Ukraine are mired in internecine squabbles over what kind of country it should be and which loyalties it should foster. Like nothing else since the fall of the Soviet Union, the war in Georgia has laid bare Ukraine's weaknesses.

When Russia sent warplanes, tank columns and thousands of soldiers into Georgia last month, Yushchenko, long an outspoken critic of Moscow, was outraged. He flew to Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, to stand in solidarity with the Caucasus nation's president and imposed restrictions on Russia's Black Sea fleet, based in Ukraine under a long-standing agreement.

Tymoshenko, in contrast, drew attention with her silence. The prime minister dispatched an envoy to Tbilisi and sent humanitarian aid. But there was no condemnation of Russia, no feisty rhetoric.

The president's office accused her of "high treason and political corruption" and hinted it would open a criminal case against her.

"I think she struck a deal with the Kremlin. . . ," said Roman Zvarych, a lawmaker from Yushchenko's party. "You can't have a prime minister of a country be silent when your sovereign territory is being used as a base to attack your ally."

Last week, Tymoshenko was abruptly summoned by the prosecutor generalfor questioning in the near-fatal dioxin poisoning of Yushchenko in 2004.

The inquiry is nothing but a political ploy, her followers say.

For their part, they say the president has gone too far in criticizing Moscow. Not only has he whipped up tensions to a dangerous height, they say, but he also has alienated those Ukrainians who have ethnic and cultural ties to Russia and who are leery of invoking its wrath.

That view seems to be gaining credibility. Yushchenko's approval ratings are in the single digits, analysts from all camps say.

"Support for [Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili by Yushchenko angered Russia and woke up that bear that's been sleeping for a long time," said Hanna Herman, a lawmaker with the Moscow-friendly Party of Regions. "Now, Ukraine has the worst relations with Russia in the history of its independence."

Today's Kiev, the capital, is a battle-hardened place long drained of the pro-democracy, anti-Russia fervor of the 2004 Orange Revolution, which swept Yushchenko and Tymoshenko to power. The onetime tent city of Independence Square is a clot of black-clad youth, locked into clinging embraces, drinking cheap beer and bellowing rock songs.

Kiev hums with politics: local politics, politics for their own sake, games for stakes of power and cash. Everybody has a press aide. Even the press aides seem to have press aides. All of them want to talk to the media, unless they are plotting some new, subtle subterfuge, then they stay silent.

You get the sense sometimes that in this city, Russia and the West have been carved down to shadows of themselves, to symbols wielded like weapons in the ceaseless churn of gladiator-style matches: invoked for their associations, for the blocs of voters they move, and later discarded for the same reasons.

Many analysts here believe Ukrainian politics are drifting closer to Moscow's sway, as evidenced by the prime minister's reticence about criticizing Russia and the enduring popularity of the pro-Moscow politician Viktor Yanukovich, a former prime minister whose Party of Regions holds the most parliamentary votes and who is widely seen as the third contender in the presidential election.

Some analysts are convinced that Moscow engineered the current crisis to send Yushchenko into oblivion and forestall Ukraine from joining NATO or moving closer to Europe.

"All of these changes, Russia had a hand in it . . . to bring people who are loyal to power," said Vadim Karasyov, director of the Institute of Global Strategies, a Kiev think tank. "There's no need for them to adopt the tactics we saw in Georgia. In Ukraine, they can use soft power and slowly adapt Ukraine to their liking."

Karasyov, who is seen as close to the president, contends that Russia is on a gradual campaign to reestablish control over Ukraine.

"This is all about changing Ukraine's foreign policy and international identity," he said. "Everything else is just a consequence."

Source: Los Angeles Times

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Monday, September 15, 2008

The "Directed Chaos" Of 2004 Is Returning In 2008

KIEV, Ukraine -- Over the weekend two signals appeared that were dangerous for Ukraine. Firstly, Ukrayinska Pravda warned of the return of "Kuchmism" through the use of administrative resources by the president and government in their new conflict. Secondly, violence broke out in Lviv between BYuT and NUNS supporters.

Viktor Baloga

The election fraud and anarchy of the 2004 elections was described at the time in a leaked Russian political technologist document as a strategy to foment "directed chaos".

The start of this Russian strategy began in the April 2004 mayoral elections in Mukachevo where Viktor Baloga was the democratic opposition candidate subjected to fraud.

How ironic that the strategy chosen today by presidential secretariat head Baloga is a copy of the discredited strategy that he faced four years ago.

It is a culmination of his aggressive "crisis management" strategy over the course of the last eight months that artificially created crises, destroyed the orange coalition, undermined (again) a Yulia Tymoshenko government and blocked Ukraine's integration into NATO and the EU.

Political instability will give Germany another excuse (as at NATO's April summit in Bucharest) to say "Nein" at the December review meeting to decide if Ukraine warrants a Membership Action Plan (MAP). Who is Baloga really working for - Ukraine or Russia's national interests?

Reviving the 2004 tactics of "directed chaos" in 2008 will destroy what little there is left of Viktor Yushchenko's reformist and orange revolution reputation.

A poll in this weeks Zerkalo Nedeli found that 72% of Ukrainians did not want Yushchenko to stand in the presidential elections.

If permitted to continue unchecked Baloga's strategy of "directed chaos"

will inevitably lead to a return to Kuchma-era election fraud if Ukraine holds pre-term elections later this year.

Baloga has everything to lose if Our Ukraine do badly and if Yushchenko is not re-elected. In such an eventuality, Baloga would become as quickly forgotten as his predecessor Viktor Medvedchuk.

Will Yushchenko permit Baloga and his "technical apparatus" to drag Ukraine back to 2004?

Source: Kyiv Post

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No Sign Of Reconciliation For Ukraine's Pro-Western Parties

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's pro-western groups said they still hadn't resolved their differences Sunday as a deadline over the governing coalition's breakup expired at the weekend.

The former orange coalition, Yushchenko (L) and Tymoshenko in a file photo.

"To my knowledge, none of the parties have even formed groups of negotiators. So you can conclude they are not interested in renewing the coalition," parliamentarian Oles Doniy told AFP.

Members of parliament from President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party pulled out of the ruling pro-Western coalition it shared with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's party at the beginning of September.

After the party's 10-day deadline to return to the coalition ended Saturday, its official breakup looks set to be announced in parliament Tuesday.

"If the formal negotiations (to protect the coalition) take place, they will happen Monday. If not, on Tuesday the parliamentary leader will announce its breakup," said Sergei Sobolev from the Tymoshenko bloc.

In the event of the coalition's split, it is expected that either Tymoshenko's bloc will form an alliance with the pro-Russian Regions Party or new elections will be held, following legislative elections last September.

The presidential party pulled out of the coalition when the Tymoshenko bloc and the pro-Moscow opposition passed new laws to reduce Yushchenko's powers and make it easier to impeach him.

In a challenge to the prime minister, who was his partner in the 2004 "Orange Revolution," Yushchenko also threatened to dissolve the parliament and call early elections if a new coalition wasn't formed within 30 days.

Experts believe that fresh elections may be held Dec. 21.

Source: AFP

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Sunday, September 14, 2008

No Summit With Ukraine Until Issues Solved: Kremlin

MOSCOW, Russia -- The Russian president cannot meet his Ukrainian counterpart until issues plaguing relations are resolved, the Kremlin said on Sunday.

Medvedev will not meet with Yushchenko until 'issues' are resolved.

The terse statement was the latest in a long series of criticisms aimed at Ukraine's pro-Western leadership, particularly President Viktor Yushchenko's drive to secure NATO membership for his former Soviet republic.

It also amounted to a rebuff to an invitation Yushchenko had issued by telephone for Kremlin leader Dmitry Medvedev to visit Kiev before the end of the year.

The statement said the leaders had spoken on Sunday, with the Russian side pointing to 'a whole string of problems in bilateral relations requiring thorough, constructive work by experts to be resolved without politicisation...

'It was noted that concrete dates for high-level contacts can be discussed once these issues have been resolved.'

Relations between Kiev and Moscow have been strained since mass 'Orange Revolution' protests brought Yushchenko to power in 2004, defeating a candidate backed by the Kremlin.

The foreign ministry in Moscow this week accused Ukraine of pursuing policies 'that we can only assess as unfriendly towards Russia'.

Russia is particularly aggrieved at the prospect of both Ukraine and Georgia one day gaining entry to NATO -- as pledged by alliance leaders at a summit in April.

It is also unhappy at Yushchenko's denunciation of Moscow's intervention in Georgia last month and his calls for the departure of Russia's Black Sea fleet from Ukraine's Crimea peninsula once its lease on a naval base expires in 2017.

Other irritants include Ukraine's reassessment of the Soviet-era version of the region's 20th century history and accusations that Ukraine's policies victimise Ukraine's many ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers.

Yushchenko and other Ukrainian leaders say membership of international alliances is an internal matter and deny any suggestion of discriminatory policies against Russians.

In a statement issued in Kiev earlier on Sunday, Yushchenko's office said the president had raised what it called a Russian proposal for the two leaders to meet in Kiev later this year and that Medevedev had accepted.

It also said the two leaders welcomed forthcoming talks on the future of the Black Sea fleet and 'confirmed Ukraine's readiness to proceed with constructive dialogue'.

Source: Forbes

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Ukraine's Crimea Dreams Of Union With Russia

SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine -- Separatism is the nightmare of any foreign policy expert on the former Soviet Union and the long-cherished dream of many local inhabitants of this picturesque corner of the Black Sea coast.

Sevastopol harbour with monument to 'scuttled ships'.

And, to some, the prospect of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula joining Russia now appears a little more plausible following Moscow's war with Georgia last month and its recognition of two Georgian separatist provinces.

"We're living in the dream that the Crimea can become Russian again," said Angelina Mamonchikova, a local activist in Sevastopol, the Soviet-era port in southern Ukraine at the heart of the irredentist quest.

"We have to believe it, otherwise we'd go mad," said Mamonchikova, whose nails are painted blue, white and red -- the colours of the Russian flag -- and who took part in a protest this month against the arrival of a US ship.

While the sight of 100 people chanting "Yankee, Go Home!" on the quay at Sevastopol hardly seems noteworthy, many locals share the anti-Western and pro-Russian views of protesters who often take to the streets.

The Crimea was originally taken over by Russia in the 18th century and then formally handed over to Soviet Ukraine in 1954 by then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev at a time when internal Soviet borders hardly mattered.

Fifty-eighty percent of the Crimea's inhabitants say in surveys that they have a Russian background, compared with 25 percent Ukrainian and 13 percent Crimean Tatars.

The Kremlin's justification of military action in Georgia as a way to defend Russian citizens and its subsequent recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have given hope to Russian-speakers in the Crimea, many of whom hold Russian passports.

"A lot of people are rubbing their hands with glee," said Olexander Formanchuk, a Ukrainian political analyst, while European officials fret that Ukraine could be the next target for intervention by Russia.

Many local residents are also disillusioned with the chaotic political scene in the Ukrainian capital Kiev and the pro-Western government's desire to join the NATO military alliance, a bid fiercely opposed by Russia.

"What good has Ukraine done for us? Nothing!" said Vadim, a taxi driver in Sevastopol. "On my son's report card it says "ethnic minority language'. Who do they think they are? It's they who are the minority here!"

A law enforcement official in Simferopol, a city of some 300,000 people, the biggest in the Crimea, told AFP on condition of anonymity: "The authorities are not doing anything for the Crimea, they couldn't care less."

But the prospect of a genuine separatist movement appears far-fetched, observers said. Radicals are weakly represented at local assemblies and pro-Moscow rallies rarely draw more than a few hundred people.

The presence of a large minority of Tatars, an ethnic group that was expelled from the Crimea in Soviet times, also lessens the chances of a Georgia-type scenario because of their strong opposition to Moscow.

Assertions by Ukrainian officials that there has been a "massive" increase in the number of Russian passports being given to residents of the Crimea have also been denied as a "provocation" by Russian officials.

Some local residents are also more practical about joining Russia.

"So we break off the Crimea and then what do we do? How are Russians going to deliver supplies and all the rest?" said Vladimir Sukhomlinov, a businessman in Sevastopol, referring to the Crimea's lack of a land border with Russia.

That's little reassurance for Galina Gorbunova, an elderly woman selling guided tours on the quay at Sevastopol. "Of course we're scared there could be a war," Gorbunova said.

Source: AFP

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Kiev Accuses Moscow Of 'Destabilising' Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine accused Russia on Saturday of seeking to destabilise the ex-Soviet state, dismissing the idea it was in Moscow's special zone of interest and describing Kiev's EU and NATO ambitions as "irreversible."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko

Ukrainian leaders are concerned that its mainly Russian-populated autonomous region of Crimea may fall under Moscow's influence in the same way as Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

"Russia's attempts to destabilise the situation in Ukraine... will not work," a statement from the Ukrainian foreign ministry said.

"Continuing with such a policy will eventually undermine the Russian Federation's position of being a good partner in the world," it said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko said last week that Russia was moving to expand its influence in Crimea by giving out Russian passports.

Russia employed this policy extensively in the Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both now recognised as independent states by Moscow.

Russia condemned Thursday the "unfriendly" stance of Ukraine over the war in Georgia and its treatment of ethnic Russians, fuelling tensions in what is feared could be the region's next flashpoint.

Ukraine on Saturday rejected those accusations and criticised Russia for making statements it described as "biased" and "far from reality".

"Ukraine has been an independent state for 17 years and in no way will it be included into the sphere of 'exclusive interests' of any country," the foreign ministry statement said.

"Ukraine's choice to joining EU and NATO is irreversible," it added.

Moscow strongly opposes Kiev's attempts to join the European bloc and the military alliance.

Western analysts say Russia's five-day war with Georgia last month was a reminder from Moscow that it wants ex-Soviet nations on its borders, especially Ukraine, to remain in Russia's orbit.

People in the southeast of Ukraine are mainly Russian-speaking, while those in the northwest predominantly speak Ukrainian and are more oriented towards integration with the West.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko sees entry into the EU and NATO as key to anchoring it to Europe and has stepped up his campaign after Russia sent troops into Georgia last month.

Yushchenko last month earned Russia's wrath by imposing restrictions on the Russian navy -- Russia's Black Sea fleet is based at Sevastopol on Ukraine's Crimean coast.

Bitter in-fighting between Ukraine's Western-oriented president and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, sharpened by divisions over ties with Russia, has done little to advance the cause of EU membership.

Relations between Yushchenko and his one-time ally have badly deteriorated, with the presidency accusing Tymoshenko of "high treason" for allegedly siding with Moscow over the Georgia conflict.

Tymoshenko hinted Monday for the first time she might form a new government coalition with the same pro-Moscow opposition she had challenged alongside Yushchenko in 2004 street protests known as the Orange Revolution.

The pro-Western coalition broke apart on September 3, with differences exacerbated by strains over Russia's conflict with Georgia whose president Mikheil Saakashvili is a close ally of Yushchenko.

Source: AFP

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Saturday, September 13, 2008

Ukraine Major Arms Supplier To Georgia: Russia's Military

MOSCOW, Russia -- Ukraine was the leading arms supplier to Georgia prior to its conflict with Russia over South Ossetia last month, the deputy chief of Russia's General Staff told an international forum on Saturday.

Russian General Anatoly Nogovitsyn

"Ukraine is the leader of supplies, univocally and unconditionally, as regards the volume of weapons provided to Georgia," Anatoly Nogovitsyn told the participants in the annual Valdai International Discussion Club meeting.

Russia previously condemned the U.S. for supplying arms to Georgia before and during the five-day operation "to force Georgia to peace" including by shipments claimed to be purely humanitarian.

"The fact that the Georgian army had been armed by our American partners is already undisputable, nobody even tries to challenge it," Russia's prime minister Vladimir Putin said in an interview with French Le Figaro on Saturday.

This year, the Valdai Club discusses the 21st century international geopolitical revolution and Russia's role in it.

The discussions are organized by RIA Novosti, the Foreign and Defense Policy Council, The Moscow News paper, and the Russia in Global Affairs and Russia Profile magazines.

Around 80 political scientists, experts and journalists from Russia, the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Switzerland and other countries are taking part.

Source: RIA Novosti

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Queen Gives Charity Concert In Ukraine

KHARKIV, Ukraine -- Queen sang to tens of thousands of Ukrainians in a charity concert meant to raise money and AIDS awareness in this ex-Soviet republic.

Legendary British rock band Queen

Cheering fans packed the central square Friday in Ukraine's second-largest city, to listen to the legendary British rock band, whose lead vocalist Freddie Mercury died of an AIDS-related illness in 1991.

The open-air concert was also timed to the release of Queen's new album, "Cosmos Rocks," and launch the band's tour that includes Russia, Britain, France and Germany.

"We've been asked to come here and we are very happy to do what we can to raise the awareness of AIDS and also to kick off a new tour," Paul Rodgers, the band's new frontman, told The Associated Press in an interview. "Awareness is the first step towards defeating the problem."

"Queen lost its singer many years ago, so we know that this can affect anybody," said drummer Roger Taylor.

Ukraine couldn't not need that message more. Government officials say nearly 77,000 people have been registered as HIV-positive since the first reported case in 1987. But some experts believe the epidemic here is far greater, with as many as a half-million people — 1 percent of Ukraine's population — infected.

Organizers chose Kharkiv, an industrial city in the east of the country, for its huge student population. The youth are a key risk group for contracting the virus. Volunteers distributed condoms and information leaflets in the city in the run-up to the concert.

But the show wasn't' just a treat for the young. Ecstatic middle-aged Ukrainians also turned up to listen to the songs of their youth, a testament to the unwavering popularity of aging Western rock bands in the former Soviet Union.

Deep Purple gave a concert in the Kremlin earlier this year. Paul McCartney sang in Moscow in 2003 and performed in Kiev in June. Many Soviets learned English on those songs and their records were hard to find.

This is Queen's second tour after they teamed up with Rodgers, who used to be the leading vocalist for the English popular rock bands Free and Bad Company. It is their first show in Ukraine.

The band has actively campaigned against the spread of HIV/AIDS. Along with their efforts, the concert was organized by Yelena Franchuk, a leading anti-AIDS activist here and the wife of Viktor Pinchuk, one of Ukraine's richest men.

While the show was free for most participants, organizers raised money by selling tickets to the VIP zone. They declined to say how much money has been raised, but said it will be donated to a city orphanage for HIV-positive children.

Source: AP

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Friday, September 12, 2008

Ukraine President Accuses Rivals Of "Coup D'etat"

KIEV, Ukraine -- President Viktor Yushchenko accused his two arch rivals on Thursday of plotting a "coup d'etat" by joining forces to cut his powers and replace a pro-Western "orange" coalition in parliament.

President Viktor Yushchenko

A coalition of groups loyal to the president and prime minister, collapsed after Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party walked out last week. It denounced Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's tactical voting alliance in the chamber with the more Russia-friendly party of ex-premier Viktor Yanukovich.

"The de facto formation in parliament of a new coalition is the implementation of a political scenario with a sole aim -- to carry out a coup d'etat through a redistribution of powers," the president's press service quoted Yushchenko as saying.

Ukrainian politics has been in turmoil since "Orange Revolution" rallies brought Yushchenko to power in 2004, putting the country at odds with Moscow over the president's drive to move the country closer to the West.

Tymoshenko, his fiery ally during the rallies, was named his first prime minister but was sacked seven months later. She returned to office last year, but the two again quarrelled.

Tymosehnko's bloc and Yanukovich's Regions Party this month approved amendments to legislation reducing the president's powers in favour of the government and parliament.

Yushchenko said he could not understand "a union between a national bourgeoisie and social populists. It is most difficult to say where this 'marriage' might lead."

LOST MAJORITY

Yanukovich draws much of his support from Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine. He was backed by Russia in a 2004 presidential election won by Yushchenko after the Supreme Court ordered a rerun of the ballot on grounds of vote-rigging.

He has since moderated his backing for Moscow, but remains opposed to Yushchenko's key foreign policy plank of securing fast-track membership of NATO.

If the current "orange" coalition, which has anyway lost its majority in parliament, cannot be rebuilt this weekend, parties have 30 days to form a new one. Should they fail, the president can call what would be the third election in as many years.

Yushchenko, in a separate interview with Western newspapers, restated his resolve to win a NATO Membership Action Plan at a December summit of the alliance -- despite limited support among Ukrainians and fierce Russian opposition.

"After events in Georgia, there is only one way to guarantee Ukraine's independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty -- joining collective European security structures," he said.

"It is also in NATO's interests to extend peace and stability eastward."

Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a new warning to Kiev to alter its "unfriendly" stand towards Russia, particularly its "rapid moves to secure NATO membership" and its denunciations of Moscow's intervention in Georgia.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Russia's New Bull's-Eye: Ukraine

WASHINGTON, DC -- Russia, fresh from its military occupation of the Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, now is setting its sights on Ukraine. Ukraine is vital to Russia's strategic interests.

Ukraine: Independence Square in Kiev.

However, since the "orange revolution" assumed power in 2004, the Ukrainian government under President Viktor Yushchenko has turned progressively westward and has sought to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), much to Moscow's consternation.

Moscow is so concerned about this prospect that then-Russian President Vladimir Putin, now prime minister, in April threatened to break up the Ukraine, should it decide to join NATO.

According to diplomats at the April NATO meeting in Bucharest, Putin "lost his temper" at the NATO-Russia Council, which was Russia's liaison to NATO.

NATO since then has suspended Russia's participation with the council due to the invasion of Georgia which also had sought to join NATO.

According to one diplomatic source, Putin told U.S. President George Bush at the closed meeting that "Ukraine is not even a state!"

He then went on to assert that Russia "gave away" Ukraine's territory and that it would cease to exist as a state if it were to join NATO.

Putin apparently was referring to an agreement signed in 1954 by then-Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev.

It transferred the Crimean Peninsula that is positioned on the Black and Azov Seas from the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Khrushchev was Ukrainian by birth.

Putin then threatened to encourage the secession of the Crimean Peninsula where the Russian Black Sea fleet in based in the city of Sevastopol.

In his threat, he also included all of the eastern Ukraine where the population is comprised of more than 90 percent ethnic Russians and is considered very pro-Moscow.

"The Russian Federation has legal grounds to revise agreements signed under Khrushchev," said Alexei Ostrovsky, head of the State Duma committee on the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Source: World Net Daily

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Palin Says Georgia, Ukraine Should Be Allowed Into NATO

WASHINGTON, DC -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin said Thursday that Georgia and Ukraine should be admitted to NATO and that the U.S. should be prepared to go to war if Russia invades Georgia again.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin

"I mean, that is the agreement when you are a NATO ally, is if another country is attacked, you're going to be expected to be called upon and help," she said in an interview with ABC News. It was her first interview since being chosen as Sen. John McCain's running mate, aside for an interview with People magazine about her family.

Gov. Palin also defended her national-security experience by citing her knowledge of energy issues. She said she hadn't traveled to foreign countries except Canada and Mexico until last year, when she went to Kuwait and Germany. She said she has never met a head of state and dismissed others who have.

"We've got to remember what the desire is in this nation at this time," she said. "It is for no more politics as usual, and somebody's big, fat résumé maybe that shows decades and decades in that Washington establishment, where, yes, they've had opportunities to meet heads of state."

Gov. Palin has proven to be extremely popular, ginning up enthusiasm on the trail and helping to lift Sen. McCain's poll numbers. But critics have questioned whether Gov. Palin is experienced enough to step into the Oval Office should she need to. And until Thursday, she hadn't appeared publicly in anything but scripted settings.

On the Russian-Georgian conflict, her comments appeared to go further than Sen. McCain has in the past. When asked in August whether he would consider using military force to defend Georgia against Russia, he said, simply: "The answer to your...question is no."

He has also emphasized that while he strongly supports Georgia, he isn't trying to reignite the Cold War. But his national security adviser, Randy Scheunemann, said Thursday that like Gov. Palin, Sen. McCain believes that U.S. military action would be needed if Georgia was a member of NATO and Russia invaded.

"If John McCain were asked, 'would we act to defend another NATO member that was invaded?' the answer would be yes. That is the core of NATO -- the Article 5 security guarantee that an attack on one is an attack on all."

Gov. Palin cited her state's proximity to Russia in explaining her understanding of the international issues. That prompted Mr. Gibson to ask her what insight that gave her into what Russia is doing in Georgia. Gov. Palin replied with warmer comments toward Russia.

"Well, I'm giving you that perspective of how small our world is and how important it is that we work with our allies to keep good relation with all of these countries, especially Russia," she said. "We will not repeat a Cold War. We must have good relationship with our allies, pressuring, also, helping us to remind Russia that it's in their benefit, also, a mutually beneficial relationship for us all to be getting along."

The Bush administration has criticized the Russian invasion, but hasn't offered to help Georgia rebuild its military. Instead, it has announced a $1 billion plan to help rebuild civilian infrastructure.

In the interview, Gov. Palin appeared unfamiliar with the Bush doctrine, the term used to describe the administration's policy that the U.S. has the right to pre-emptively strike nations that pose national security threats, even if that threat isn't imminent. Asked by ABC News anchor Charlie Gibson if she agreed with it, Gov. Palin replied: "In what respect, Charlie?" He replied by asking for her interpretation. She said:

"I believe that what President Bush has attempted to do is rid this world of Islamic extremism, terrorists who are hell-bent on destroying our nation. There have been blunders along the way, though. There have been mistakes made. And with new leadership...comes opportunity to do things better."

Source: Wall Street Journal

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Russia Turns Diplomatic Fire On Ukraine

POTI, Georgia -- Russian troops laboured Thursday over a tentative pull-out from Georgia as Moscow vowed to strengthen its military after last month's war and turned its diplomatic fire on Ukraine.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin dismissed Western accusations that Russia's military intervention into Georgia was part of an "imperial" agenda.

"We do not have and will not have any of the imperial ambitions that people accuse us of," Putin said in the southern resort of Sochi.

On the ground there were increasing signs Russian forces were withdrawing in line with pledges made Monday by President Dmitry Medvedev after he met an EU delegation in Moscow.

Troops were making preparations to leave at three of the posts mentioned in the agreement, one near Poti and the other two near Senaki, which has a strategic airbase that was bombed by Russia during the August 8-12 conflict.

"We want to leave as soon as possible.... We're just waiting for orders to leave," a soldier told AFP at a checkpoint at the entrance to Poti, a key oil terminal and naval base that was also bombed by Russian jets.

While Russian troops are leaving most of Georgia they will remain in the rebel regions at the heart of last month's conflict.

Medvedev said Georgia's August 7 assault on South Ossetia meant Russia would have to think about re-arming its military.

"We should concentrate on questions of military re-equipment," said Medvedev. "Without any doubt this decision is influenced by the crisis in the Caucasus, Georgia's aggression and its continued militarization."

International tensions flared Thursday with Russia accusing Ukraine's pro-Western government of taking an "unfriendly" stance over the war and of infringing the rights of Russian-speaking residents. Ukraine is a strong ally of Georgia.

"Ukrainian authorities have recently been pursuing policies that cannot be seen as anything other than unfriendly towards Russia," a strongly-worded foreign ministry statement said.

Western officials fear Ukraine's large ethnic Russian population could leave it exposed to intervention from Moscow.

Putin sought to reassure the West this would not be the case.

"We do not have any desire or basis for infringing the sovereignty of former Soviet republics," he said.

Moscow said it was defending Russian nationals when it sent in troops to halt Georgia's offensive into South Ossetia on August 8. Georgia says Russia has effectively annexed the territory and a second breakaway region, Abkhazia.

Georgia has also accused Russia of breaching the August 12 ceasefire that ended the conflict. It says a Georgian police officer was killed Wednesday by gunfire from a Russian checkpoint. Russia denies this.

Washington argues Russia's decision to base 7,600 troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia on a long-term basis violates the ceasefire.

Medvedev has agreed to pull out all troops from buffer zones surrounding the regions within 10 days of the deployment of EU ceasefire observers on October 1.

The European Union wants the monitors to be allowed into Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but Russia has ruled this out.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon said Thursday the United Nations was weighing sending a fact-finding mission to Georgia and was willing to facilitate international talks on South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

He also dismissed suggestions that the harsh rhetoric between Washington and Moscow signaled a return to the Cold War despite soaring tensions between the two countries.

Moscow's deployment of two Tu-160 strategic bombers to Venezuela led to further controversy on Thursday, with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez calling it a "warning" to the US "empire".

The United States said it will monitor the bombers, which it described as "Cold War era assets".

The presence of US naval vessels close to Russian shores to deliver aid to Georgia has previously drawn an angry response from Moscow.

On the seventh anniversary of the September 11 attacks on the United States, Medvedev urged Washington to join it in combating terrorism.

"This would be much more useful for the United States than developing relations with rotten regimes that embark on military adventures," he said, alluding to US support for Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

Russian human rights group Memorial and New York-based Human Rights Watch warned of a precarious security situation inside South Ossetia and in the buffer zones, with continued looting and burning of Georgian villages.

Hundreds of people on both sides are estimated to have been killed in the conflict. Tens of thousands fled their homes.

Source: AFP

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Thursday, September 11, 2008

Russian Ambassador Yuri Fedotov Warns Ukraine Over NATO Membership

LONDON, England -- Russia has issued a stern warning to Ukraine indicating the type of punnishment it can expect should it take further steps towards entering NATO.

Russian ambassador to Britain, Yuri Fedotov.

The pro-Western stance of Ukraine's Government under President Viktor Yushchenko has angered Russia and prompted fears of a military conflict between the two nations that could exceed the war in Georgia.

Yuri Fedotov, the Russian ambassador to Britain, suggested that NATO membership for Ukraine would damage economic relations between his country and the former Soviet republic.

"The expansion of NATO is seen in Russia as a hostile action," the ambassador was reported as saying. "We will never accept this. We cannot block expansion of NATO, but we can take measures to ensure our security."

Ukraine, which has a population of 46 million, has had extremely close historical, cultural and economic links with Russia. Russia, however, does not want to see NATO expanded along its borders.

Mr Fedotov said: "The borders are virtually open. Should this country become a NATO member...it means that we should take some measures to protect ourselves, and this may have an impact on this multitude of relations, ties and connections. It might not only affect trade and economic relations but also people-to-people contacts.

"I hope common sense will prevail and that NATO countries think twice."

Asked if Russia would take military action against Ukraine, Mr Fedotov replied: "Actually Russia had no plans to take such action in Georgia. But this action was precipitated by this stupid military intervention against the peaceful population in Tskhinvali."

He added: "I hope that people would take some lesons from what happened in South Ossetia."

Ukraine's government is itself divided over the NATO issue as it has observed the Georgia war. The Russian government has already indicated that Ukraine faces a 100 per cent rise in gas prices from next January.

Source: Telegraph UK

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Foreign Investors Endure Harassment

KIEV, Ukraine -- When foreigners come to Ukraine to start their own small business, they often risk more than capital. They risk their health and possibly, even their lives.

Swedish farmer Maurits Stamm claims he was attacked when he refused to hand over his business to a powerful former regional chief in Cherkasy Oblast.

When foreigners come to Ukraine to start their own small business, they often risk more than capital. They risk their health and, possibly, even their lives.

One common threat: the one two punch of local businessmen and officials who team up in envy against the successful foreign entrepreneur.

According to the World Bank, Ukraine ranked 145th out of 155 countries in protection of foreign investors, despite attracting $36.5 billion in foreign investment since independence in 1991. Only Uzbekistan and some African countries ranked worse. The report concluded the situation is unlikely to change for the better in the next two years.

This could mean more bad news – and bad beatings – for investors who follow in the unfortunate footsteps of Swiss businessman Maurits Stamm.

Stamm, 28, became the first foreign investor in the picturesque village of Bahva in the Cherkasy Oblast. In December 2007, he arrived to find fallow land. The collective turned private farms had gone bankrupt. The irrigation system had been destroyed by scrap hunters and much of the land had been taken over by local oligarchs to build their country villas.

The village residents said Stamm was a real ascetic. Until his company started bringing in a steady income, he lived in a repair shop for 18 months. A graduate of a provincial agricultural school, he invested 1.5 million euros ($2.1 million) into his Ukrainian farm. Within a year, he renovated an abandoned farm that soon became the first profitable enterprise in the area.

Stamm became a victim of his own success. The first person to show interest was Petro Yevych, then head of the Korsun Shevchenkivsky district administration, and now head of the agricultural firm RosAgro.

“He came together with his broad-shouldered assistants and hinted that I have to hand my business over to him, or I would be in trouble,” Stamm said. The regional police department told Korrespondent, the Russian language sister publication of the Kyiv Post, that three of the visitors were members or coaches at the Cherkasy kickboxing club. Their second visit sent the foreign farmer to intensive care in Kyiv.

His misfortune is nothing unusual. Ihor Skoryk, analyst at the Center for Work with Foreign Investors, said that his organization recorded 1,500 violations of foreign investors’ property rights due to the whims of local authorities and businesses since early 2007.

Most victims speak out only after realizing that they are facing a much stronger opponent. While Stamm is facing only a former provincial government chief, wine importer Christina Xinias is fighting with a business partner in Kyiv who, she said, is backed by someone higher in the government hierarchy – the chief of the National Committee for Energy Regulation.

Zbigniew Wroblewski, a Polish ice cream maker working in the Kyiv oblast, said he is losing his battle to one of Ukraine’s largest business groups. His compatriot, Dariusz Kwiecinski, has all but lost his business as a result of a decision to fire his local top manager.

“In most cases the local raiders attack businesses outside the capital,” said Dietrich Treis, head of the Association of Foreign Investors.

Local farmers say that in Stamm’s case the attack was out of envy. His company was paying over Hr 1,000 ($208) in wages to once destitute farmers, and, in return, they leased him more land in 18 months than the former government official, Yevych, had managed to rent for many years.

Apart from physical attacks, Stamm’s farm was set on fire. The very same people who had beaten him up organized several meetings with land owners, trying to persuade them to reclaim his land ownership certificates and, therefore, the land itself. But nobody would agree to it. Korrespondent contacted RosAgro for comments, but Yevych could not be reached.

Stamm has not recovered from the assault, but has maintained his company. His case is being monitored by the Cherkasy regional governor and the Swiss Embassy.

Stamm said that, despite his extreme investment experience, he will not leave Ukraine. “My whole life is in this farm. There is no way back,” he said, adding that he is considering hiring armed personal guards.

Poles in trouble

The case of ice cream maker Wroblewski is not so straightforward. In 1997, he invested $11 million in a unique ice cream factory in the village of Kyselyovka in the Kyiv oblast. He said it had the potential to become a monopoly in the region, so the Privat business group became interested in it.

Wroblewski himself said the threat to his factory came as soon as he got Ukrainian shareholders. “When we were catastrophically short of revenue to start operating, I went to some people in a Kharkiv bank and offered them partnership for $4 million of additional investment,” he said.

KIB-Service, a Kharkiv company, and Cyprus registered Avagno Enterprises Limited both offered him investment in exchange for a share in the statutory fund of FermaKi, the company that owned the factory.

The money never materialized, but the Ukrainian partners had received enough statutory documents to attempt a takeover. “The documents I signed effectively gave my former partners a chance to take over the factory,” said Wroblewski.

In 2006 the Supreme Court confirmed that Wroblewski owned 100 percent of his company, while the General Prosecutor’s office started criminal proceedings against KIB-Service and Avagno Enterprises Limited, accusing them of large scale fraud. But Wroblewski’s joy was premature.

On Aug. 5, he lost the case in the High Economic Court in Kyiv, and almost immediately the greater part of his joint stock company was sold.

The Polish investor said he fell victim to a takeover by Privat, a large business group led by oligarch Ihor Kolomoiskiy. Wroblewski has mentioned in many interviews to the Ukrainian press that the security company that seized his factory was connected to Biola food concern, where Kolomoiskiy is an investor.

Korrespondent contacted Biola, but their marketing department said they knew nothing of Wroblewski and had nothing to do with the takeover.

Another Polish businessman, Dariusz Kwiecinski, is facing a different set of circumstances in Bibrka, Lviv oblast. After he dismissed his local manager from Polisyntez, a foamed polyurethane maker, a part of the 5 million euro factory was burned down.

His losses of 1.5 million euros ($2.1 million) and a cross left on top of the burned building were just the beginning of his troubles. The local council closed down the factory, claiming it threatened the environment, and a third of his company’s shares were quietly bought out by a third party.

“My partners and I realized that the dismissal, the fire, the local council ban and the purchase of shares were not a coincidence – they are links of the same chain,” said Kwiecinski. He stopped his investment projects and began extended court procedures. “Ukraine is a country where it’s impossible to defend your rights,” he said.

In some cases, Ukrainian business partners make it clear to the foreign investor that it makes sense for them to quit their business voluntarily to avoid hassles and expensive lawyers. The weightiest arguments for persuasion in such cases: high ranking state officials who turn out to be close relatives of the Ukrainian side.

This was the case with Christina Xinias, a Greek business lady who founded wine importer and distributor Dolmart Ukraine 15 years ago. She said she started another company called Sommelier in 2006 to handle some aspects of the business, and appointed former commercial director of Dolmart, Anna Kalchenko, to run it.

Dolmart invested Hr 4 million into Sommelier, which later tried to take over the whole business, according to Xinias.

“I have two letters that Sommelier sent to our suppliers saying that Dolmart went bankrupt, and their products will be imported to Ukraine by Sommelier,” said Xinias, who later sued Sommelier.

On the eve of court hearings, strange things started happening at Dolmart. “Information started disappearing, then computers,” said Xinias.

Finally, she was paid a visit from a powerful guest, about whom she had heard many times before. It was Valery Kalchenko, the father of Anna Kalchenko and head of Ukraine’s energy regulating body. Xinias said he threatened “special interference” if Dolmart failed to withdraw its lawsuit. Korrespondent could not reach Anna or Valery Kalchenko for a response to the accusations.

According to the State Statistics Committee, in the first half of 2008 alone, foreign investors withdrew $500 million from Ukraine, and twice that in 2007. It was partly due to the stock exchange crash, but partly because of the problems facing foreign investors. The country's president has only just noticed the trend, saying at a recent press conference that he was “concerned” by the scandals.

In the meantime, none of the cases are likely to be resolved soon.

Investigation into Stamm’s case has been dragging for months, and no court hearings have been appointed. The ice cream maker Wroblewski describes his relations with Ukraine as “cold war.”

He and his embassy are desperately bombarding government organs with petitions, but getting nowhere. “Everything is within the frame of Ukrainian law,” Wroblewski quotes the most popular response.

The cold shower of local realities has forced those investors who persist in staying in Ukraine to think about self defense. The Polish entrepreneurs united into the Association of Polish Businessmen, which grew to include representatives of other nationalities.

It was transformed into the Association of Foreign Investors, now headed by Treis, who also heads the Kyiv bureau of O.L.T. Ñonsult GMBH, a consultancy for foreign investors in Ukraine.

“After the cases of Stamm, Wroblewski and Kwiecinski, and a number of other outrageous reprisals, it is obvious that an organization is needed to defend the rights of foreign investors,” said Treis. He said a further increase in the number of disgruntled investors can lead to a chain reaction when other investment projects start closing down.

In the meantime, business investors are adapting to local economics, preferring to negotiate rather than fight. “You need to solve problems not with the police, but by negotiating with local authorities,” said the limping Stamm.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Wednesday, September 10, 2008

EU's Rebuff For Ukraine Sours Summit

PARIS, France -- The European Union yesterday declined to offer Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, frustrating Ukrainian officials who said the bloc had thrown away a golden opportunity to stabilise its eastern frontier and encourage political and economic reform in Kiev.

France's President Nicolas Sarkozy (R) and EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana stand together after the EU-Ukraine summit at the Elysee Palace in Paris September 9, 2008.

A communiqué issued at an EU-Ukrainian summit set out a framework for closer ties between Kiev and the 27-nation bloc, but omitted the crucial words "membership perspective" to describe Ukraine's future relationship with the EU.

Ukraine, a country of 46m people wedged between the EU and Russia, had hoped that Moscow's military assault on Georgia last month, and its subsequent attempt to partition the former Soviet republic, might prompt the EU to go the extra mile.

The communiqué affirmed the EU's commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and held out the prospect of agreements on free trade and easier travel for Ukrainians to EU countries, but stopped short of a promise of EU accession.

"Be clear that this agreement shuts no door, and maybe it opens some doors. This is the most we could offer, but I believe it to be a substantial step," Nicolas Sarkozy, France's president, told reporters.

Diplomats said Germany and the Netherlands, and to a lesser extent Belgium, were the most reluctant to state clearly that Ukraine could one day join the EU.

The three Baltic states, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden and the UK all sympathised with Kiev's aspirations while recognising that accession was not an immediate possibility.

France, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, appreciated the need to send positive signals to Kiev, but was unwilling to make a strong commitment to Ukraine without a shift in the German and Dutch positions, diplomats said.

Ukraine did its cause little good last week when the ruling coalition split in acrimony, enhancing the nation's reputation for political instability.

For now, Ukraine will have to make do with an "association agreement" with the EU - a pact that for Balkan countries such as Albania, Macedonia and Serbia represents the first step on the path to membership, but for Ukraine carries no such implications.

The association agreement is expected to be ready in about a year, and President Viktor Yushchenko said yesterday he looked forward to signing it. "We've made remarkable progress over the past 12 months," he said, making it clear he had not abandoned hope Ukraine could eventually join the EU.

But some Ukrainian officials said their government might be wary of signing the association accord lest this be interpreted as Kiev's formal acceptance of a status falling permanently short of membership.

EU officials put a positive gloss on yesterday's summit, stressing the communiqué did not explicitly exclude EU accession. But Ukraine fears support for Kiev's aspirations may fade if the crisis in Georgia calms down.

Source: The Financial Times

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Ukraine’s Party Of Regions Is Most Popular

KIEV, Ukraine -- - The party of Viktor Yanukovych is the most popular political organization in Ukraine, according to a poll by the Ukrainian Forum and The Sociology Institute. 26.6 per cent of respondents would vote for the Party of Regions (PR) in the next legislative election.

The party of Viktor Yanukovych (above) is the most popular political organization in Ukraine.

The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc is second with 22.2 per cent, followed by the Communist Party (KPU) with 5.4 per cent, the Volodymyr Lytvyn Bloc with 5.1 per cent, and the People’s Union-Our Ukraine (NS-NU) with 3.9 per cent.

A series of public demonstrations took place in Kiev after the November 2004 presidential run-off. The Ukrainian Supreme Court eventually invalidated the results of the second round, and ordered a special re-vote. Opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko—whose supporters wore orange-coloured clothing at events and rallies—received 51.99 per cent of all cast ballots, defeating Yanukovych.

In 2006, Yanukovych’s PR secured 186 seats in the Supreme Council. Yanukovych eventually became prime minister in a coalition government with the Socialist Party (SPU) and the KPU. After a long political stalemate and disagreements between the president and prime minister, a new legislative ballot took place in September 2007.

Final election results released in October gave the "orange forces"—including the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and Yushchenko’s People’s Union-Our Ukraine (NS-NU)—228 seats, while Yanukovych and his Communist allies took control of 202 seats. In December, Tymoshenko was ratified as prime minister, with the support of 225 lawmakers.

On Sept. 3, Ukraine’s governing coalition split in great part due to disagreements over the Georgia-Russia conflict. In the days following the incursion, Yushchenko asked the government to fiercely condemn Russia’s actions in Georgia, but Tymoshenko refused to take a strong stance against Russia. Yushchenko left the coalition as a result.

On Aug. 26, the Russian government officially recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. On that same day, Yanukovych urged the Ukrainian government to side with Russia, saying, "I believe Ukraine should accept the will of peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and recognize their independence."

Source: Angus Reid Global Monitor

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European Union Right To Avoid Gamble On Risky Ukraine Accession

PARIS, France -- The European Union offered Ukraine a slot in a perpetual holding pattern yesterday, circling the skies of Brussels while waiting for the go-ahead for membership. Ukrainian officials said they were bitterly disappointed.

Viktor Yushchenko speaking at EU-Ukraine summit in Paris on September 9, 2008.

But then they expected too much. To turn up for talks only a week after the Ukrainian Government fell apart and expect to get marks for stability and reform takes the honourable diplomatic tactic of wishful thinking a bit too far.

Ukraine would do better to trumpet the value of what it has been offered. The “association agreement” with the EU could lead quickly to much closer trade and even to that coveted prize, visa-free travel.

It is, after all, the biggest gesture towards membership that the country is likely to get from the EU for a long time. Ukraine would also then stand a better chance of persuading Russia that there was no vacuum for it to fill or disillusion with Europe to exploit.

The EU and NATO have both bracketed Ukraine with Georgia in mulling over whether to extend their borders again. The EU did the same with Romania and Bulgaria, treating them almost as a joint application.

It would do itself a favour by treating all these countries separately. Ukraine and Georgia are completely different, and so would be the problems of letting them in.

Ukraine's sheer size puts it far beyond the kind of expansion that the EU could begin to consider at the moment, with voters already fed up with enlargement. With a population of 46 million (ten times that of Georgia), it could not just be swept into the mix. It is not only huge, it is torn between its pro-Russian and pro-European halves — the cause, yet again, of the Government's collapse.

The EU is right to point out that Ukraine has to resolve its own ambivalence before it is worth cranking up the Brussels machinery even to look at the possibility of membership. Even then, the answer might well be no.

For the EU to let in a new member is a much more complicated decision than for NATO to do so. Turkey, a member of NATO but with only distant hopes of joining the EU, shows why. EU accession of large countries affect the economies, even the population, of every other member, as well as the budget, the voting rules, and the subtle cultural emphasis of a union that is unsure of just those things.

For NATO, in contrast, membership turns on comparatively simple questions of whether the newcomer could bring useful military forces or territory, and of whether existing members would be prepared to defend it, Of course, with Ukraine and Georgia, that now carries all the melodramatic weight of whether Russia would promptly test the commitment.

But the alliance has never been purely military (as its leaders spend ages reminding the world). It has also defined itself as a pact between like-minded countries: an alliance of those on the same side, against those who are hostile. That is where the value of including Georgia and Ukraine might lie. However tortuous that path may seem, it is still easier than EU membership.

Given that Ukraine is not going to get anything firm towards EU membership for a long time, both sides have an incentive to get the most out of yesterday's co-operation pact. It isn't an empty offer, even if it isn't the one that Ukraine wanted.

Source: Times Online

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Tuesday, September 09, 2008

EU Tightens Ties To Ukraine, Rules Out Membership Bid

PARIS, France -- The European Union pledged to tighten economic and political ties to Ukraine, while refusing to put the crisis-wracked ex-Soviet republic on a path to join the bloc.

France's President Nicolas Sarkozy (R) shakes hands with Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko after the EU-Ukraine summit the Elysee Palace in Paris September 9, 2008.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, representing the EU, made the offer to Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, now locked in a power struggle with his own prime minister that may determine whether Ukraine embraces Western democracies or falls under Russia's sway.

EU leaders said the outreach is designed to help create a western anchor for the country of 46 million people in the wake of Russia's efforts to recover regional influence that evaporated after the Cold War.

``It was the maximum we could offer, but I think it was a substantial step,'' Sarkozy told a press conference after hosting an EU-Ukraine summit in Paris today. Yushchenko said the EU's ``message is full of hope and holds much promise.''

Russia's invasion of Georgia last month shattered Europe's security arrangements, forcing the EU to recalibrate ties with Russia and step up economic support for countries once in the Soviet hinterland.

The EU will start talks that may lead to visa-free travel for Ukrainians to Europe. The EU also decided on the symbolic label ``Association Agreement'' for the trade and cooperation pact that is in the works.

Free Trade Negotiations

Negotiations on the free-trade part of the pact, under way since February, won't be wrapped up until the middle of 2009 at the earliest. Yushchenko said it will be ``probably the latter half of 2009'' before the pact is signed.

Two-way trade reached 34 billion euros ($48 billion) in 2007, making the EU Ukraine's top trading partner. European companies also have the biggest stake in foreign investment in Ukraine, which totaled $29.5 billion in 2007, according to the European Commission.

Ukraine sought to wriggle free of Russian influence in the 2004 ``Orange Revolution'' that installed Yushchenko as president with the goal of joining the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Still, the country is split roughly equally into a predominantly Ukrainian population in the center and west and Russian speakers to the east and in the Crimea, where Russia has leased port facilities for its Black Sea fleet until 2017.

Yulia Timoshenko

Ukraine may face early elections after Yushchenko's party walked out of a coalition with Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko last week, accusing Timoshenko of showing too little sympathy for Georgia after the Russian invasion.

The splits in Ukraine are echoed by divisions in the 27- nation EU over enlargement, with France and Germany arguing that the bloc is overstretched after taking in 12 mostly eastern European countries since 2004.

While the EU declined to offer Ukraine a ``membership perspective,'' Sarkozy said today's declaration is ``the first time that the European Union has pronounced itself so clearly'' on Ukraine's European orientation.

An eight-page communiqué highlighted that Ukraine and the EU share a ``common history and values.'' While Sarkozy spoke of a ``European vocation'' for Ukraine, a term used in the past to hint at future membership, that language was absent from the document.

Russian Frontier

The war between Russia and Georgia forced Sarkozy, who started his six-month EU presidency intent on building up ties to North Africa and the Middle East, to tack eastward and seek to reinforce relations with countries on Russia's frontiers.

Sarkozy went on a crisis-management mission yesterday to Moscow and Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, winning Russia's promise to pull its troops out of Georgia within a month. His late return forced today's meeting to be moved from Evian, on Lake Geneva, to Paris.

Ukraine's NATO hopes have run into objections from Germany and France, which in April blocked a U.S. bid to put it on the fast track to membership. NATO foreign ministers will reconsider Ukraine and Georgia in December.

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney traveled to Kiev last week to underline American backing for Ukraine's bid to join NATO, saying ``no outside country gets a veto'' on the country's goal of becoming a member of the alliance.

Source: Bloomberg

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EU And Ukraine Leaders To Mull Future Relations In Paris

PARIS, France -- With one crisis at least momentarily defused, EU leaders will hold talks with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko later on Tuesday about their future relations.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy will hold talks with Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko, in Paris.

The summit comes just hours after French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as acting EU president, European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso and EU foreign-policy chief Javier Solana negotiated the withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgian territory.

The results of the meeting in Moscow will probably dominate Tuesday's meeting, which was switched at the last moment to Paris from the south-eastern French resort of Evian because the negotiations took longer than expected.

Moscow's intervention in Georgia - and its recognition of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia - has provoked fears that Russia could target other areas, such as the Ukraine's republic of Crimea, which was considered part of Russia until 1954.

The Ukrainian president is expected to cite the continuing geopolitical tensions to ask EU leaders to speed up the process that will eventually make Kiev a member of the bloc.

However, his feud with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, which is threatening to undermine his government, has led many EU leaders to doubt that Ukraine is sufficiently stable to become a closer partner.

Source: DPA

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View: The Next Crisis - F. Stephen Larrabee

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- The Russian invasion of Georgia has sent shock waves throughout the West and the former Soviet space — especially Ukraine. Indeed, Ukraine could be the next potential crisis.

F. Stephen Larrabee, author of this article, holds the Corporate Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation.

Georgia’s increasingly pro-Western course, including growing ties to NATO, has been a thorn in Moscow’s side. But it did not pose a serious threat to Russian security. Georgia’s army is small, ill-equipped and no match for Russia’s, as was amply demonstrated this month.

Ukraine’s integration into NATO, by contrast, would have far-reaching strategic consequences, ending any residual Russian hopes of forming a “Slavic Union” composed of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine — a dream that still beats in the breast of many Russians. It would also have important implications for the Russian defence industry, notably air defence and missile production.

In short, the real source of Moscow’s anxiety and strategic angst is Ukraine’s future political and security orientation. Georgia has largely been a sideshow.

Russia has a number of means of pressuring Ukraine short of using military force. One is energy. Ukraine is heavily dependent on Russian energy, particularly gas.

Russia has used the gas issue as a foreign policy instrument. Ukraine currently pays $179 per 1,000 cubic meters for gas from Russia — more than three times what it paid in 2004 — and there have been reports that Moscow is considering a further doubling of the price.

Russia’s long-term strategy is to try to gain control of Ukraine’s pipelines by transferring them to a joint venture, as it has done in Belarus, thus enabling it to control both supply and distribution of gas to Ukraine.

The Black Sea Fleet is another potential source of tension. Under an agreement signed in 1997, Ukraine granted Russia basing rights for the fleet at Sevastopol in Crimea until 2017.

Ukraine has been pressing Russia to begin discussions on the fleet’s withdrawal. But Russia has dragged its feet, suggesting that Moscow may seek to use the presence of the fleet as a means of pressuring Ukraine.

Crimea itself represents a third potential flash point. Crimea is the only region in Ukraine where ethnic Russians constitute an overwhelming majority of the population (58 percent).

Khrushchev transferred the peninsula to Ukraine in 1954 as a gift to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the unification of Ukraine and Russia. At the time, the gesture was largely symbolic, as Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and few could envisage an independent Ukraine.

Separatist pressures emerged in Crimea immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union. They subsided after 1995 largely because the Russian separatists were divided, and Moscow, facing separatist pressures in Chechnya, showed little inclination to support them.

However, separatist pressures, while diminished, continue to exist in Crimea. Given Crimea’s historic ties to Russia and its majority ethnic Russian population, many Ukrainian officials fear that Russia could try to foment separatist movements in Crimea as a means of putting pressure on Ukraine to curb its ties to the West.

Moscow’s tactics in Abkhazia and South Ossetia provide cause for concern in this regard. Russia encouraged and supported separatist movements in both entities, then used the separatist tensions to justify sending “Russian peacekeepers” into the regions.

Moreover, it granted Russian citizenship to Abkhaz and South Ossetian residents, and then justified its recent invasion of Georgia on the grounds that it had an obligation to protect Russian citizens.

Western allies have a strong strategic interest in supporting Ukrainian democracy and Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. But this course must be pursued prudently and with great care.

As the Georgian crisis has underscored, there are limits to the ability to influence developments in a region where Russia has strong strategic interests and a preponderance of military power. Thus Europe and the United States need to be very careful about making security commitments they are unwilling or unable able to carry out.

This does not mean that Moscow should be given a veto over Ukraine’s security orientation or that Ukraine can never become a member of NATO. The door for Ukraine to join NATO should remain open.

But with Russia in a defiant mood and refusing to fully withdraw its troops from Georgia, now is not the time to accelerate efforts to bring Ukraine into the Alliance. Poking an angry bear is not a wise policy. Ask Mikheil Saakashvili.

Source: Daily Times

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Alliance Divided As Members Ponder Plea Of 'NATO Come Home'

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- It is lunchtime at NATO headquarters outside Brussels and there is a new buzz in the air. The 4,000 workers, civilian and military, mingle across the vast, sprawling canteen, excitedly debating a single question.

Meeting at NATO headquarters

After years of self-doubt over its relevance in a post-Cold War world, has the 50-year-old alliance finally found a 21st-century role thanks to a resurgent Russian bear? Since the Soviet Union collapsed, NATO has struggled to reconfigure itself from a rigid defensive posture in Europe to a vast expeditionary force capable of taking on campaigns such as the war in Afghanistan.

“The main subject of conversation in the coffee bars is whether this was a tipping point and whether an alliance that has been focused on Afghanistan needs to recalibrate its view of Russia,” a senior British official at NATO headquarters said.

“We are not saying how can we punish Russia. We are saying how can we manage a Russia which has clearly got a new agenda, which says it has special rights over its near neighbours.”

Those near neighbours already in NATO are the ones leading the charge to put the Russian threat back on the map. “Now, because of Georgia, there are NATO members such as Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states who are saying the alliance should stop thinking about expeditionary warfare and concentrate once again on old-style military structures to deter Russia,” a senior alliance source told The Times.

“Their plea is 'NATO come home', but we can't ditch Afghanistan to shore up Poland or the Baltic states to deter an assertive Russia.”

The division between those who still want to focus the main effort on Afghanistan and others who believe that resources should be switched back to confronting Russia's rediscovered imperialist ambitions has created turmoil within the alliance. Key to this conflict are the tough decisions to be made over who gets to join the alliance, and when.

European leaders will meet in Paris today (after the summit was moved from its original destination of Évian), to encourage closer ties with would-be NATO member Ukraine, but the alliance is deeply divided over the wisdom of allowing it and Georgia to join for fear of provoking Russia.

Britain's view is that there must be “no rowing back” from the pledge, made at the NATO summit in Bucharest in April, that Georgia and Ukraine would one day share full membership rights. This view is no longer shared by Germany, France or Italy, who question the wisdom of eastward expansion that would unnerve an unpredictable Kremlin.

The push for continued enlargement is led by the United States, whose hawkish new NATO Ambassador, Kurt Volker, arrived in Brussels as the bullets were still flying in Georgia and rushed straight into an emergency meeting before even entering his office.

“I thought NATO should have issued a clear statement that day, calling for a ceasefire and withdrawal of troops, but NATO was still just waking up from summer holidays,” he said in a speech last week that highlighted his frustrations with the pace and power of the response.

He described NATO's more considered response a few days later as “a big step from that first day one week earlier” but is still angry that not enough was done to effect a Russian withdrawal.

“Co-operation needs to be based on working with a Russia that respects its neighbours ... we cannot simply go on with business as usual in our relations with Russia while Russia continues to occupy Georgian territory, destroy its infrastructure and divide a sovereign country. While the Cold War is over, threats to our democratic, transatlantic community have not gone away.”

While the United States continues to push for Georgia to be given “membership action plan status”, the crucial first step towards membership, at NATO's crucial foreign ministers meeting in December, even senior NATO advisers are suggesting that it would be more prudent to concentrate on propping up Tbilisi's democratic regime in the face of the Russian desire for regime change, rather than going down the membership route.

NATO's decision to consider the Georgian and Ukrainian applications together has not helped Tbilisi's NATO ambitions, especially as the Government in Ukraine teeters on the brink of collapse.

“It means we can't have one without the other, which has put the alliance on the spot,” an official said, “Particularly now that the Government in Kiev is split between those who want to be closer to the West and those who prefer to remain allied to Moscow.”

Under the terms of the enlargement programme no applicant country can join if it is involved in a continuing territorial conflict. This would bar Georgia from joining if Russian troops remained in the country.

Even if Georgia were given the green light it would not be entitled to make an Article Five request, under which every member state is obliged to go to the aid of another member under attack. This right is bestowed only when a country is a fully paid-up member of the alliance.

NATO's map could be redrawn northwards as well. The Georgia crisis has revived debate on NATO membership in Finland and Sweden.

Source: Times Online

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Monday, September 08, 2008

Ukraine Prime Minister Summoned By Prosecutors

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's prime minister has been summoned by prosecutors for questioning, officials said Monday, in the latest chapter of her power struggle with the president ahead of 2010 elections.

PM Yulia Tymoshenko is being accused of high treason.

Once partners in the 2004 Orange Revolution, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko have turned into bitter rivals. Their tug-of-war struggle has ruined their Western-oriented coalition and put the county on the brink of its third parliamentary election in as many years.

The circumstances of Tymoshenko's subpoena were unclear.

Olha Ivaniv, spokeswoman for the Prosecutor General's Office, said the prime minister is to be questioned Thursday as a witness in the investigation into the 2004 nearly lethal poisoning of Yushchenko.

But Tymoshenko, speaking to reporters Monday, suggested she was being summoned in response to the president's accusations that she had committed high treason in support of Russia.

Yushchenko, who firmly condemned Russia's war with Georgia last month, has accused Tymoshenko of siding with Moscow in the conflict. He also charges that her cooperation with the Russia-friendly opposition party harms Ukraine's national interests.

Yushchenko's office charged in late August that Tymoshenko's actions showed signs "of high treason and political corruption" and said it was handing over materials implicating her to law enforcement agencies.

The president's office also claimed the Kremlin was considering financing Tymoshenko's election campaign in exchange for her taking a more moderate position on Georgia. Russian officials have denied interfering in Ukrainian politics.

Tymoshenko has repeatedly denied those accusations. She says she supports Georgia's territorial integrity, but does not want her country to be dragged into any conflicts.

Yushchenko fell gravely ill during the 2004 presidential campaign and was later diagnosed with dioxin poisoning, which badly scarred his face. A nearly four-year investigation has failed to identify a single suspect. Yushchenko has accused a close friend of involvement and said Russia was stalling the probe.

Source: International Herald Tribune

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US Confident Of NATO Nod To Georgia, Ukraine: Official

ROME, Italy -- The United States is confident that Georgia and Ukraine will become members of the NATO military alliance and sees growing support in Europe for that prospect, a top US administration official said Monday.

US Vice President Dick Cheney (L) and Italian President Giorgio Napolitano.

Russia's recognition of Georgian breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia has increased backing for Georgia and Ukraine's admission to the 26-member alliance, the official said as US Vice President Dick Cheney held talks with Italian leaders here.

"There may be debates about timing, conditions and so forth, but if anything what has happened in Georgia has probably broadened support within the alliance for the proposition that eventually they ought to be members of NATO," he said on condition of anonymity.

Cheney last week vowed Washington's backing for Baku, Tbilisi and Kiev during a whistle-stop tour of the region, and urged NATO to unite in order to ward off a return of "line-drawing" in Europe.

He held weekend talks with political and business leaders at a conference in Italy, including Israeli President Shimon Peres, former Spanish prime minister Jose Maria Aznar and top world oil executives.

The US vice president arrived Sunday in Rome for talks with Italy's president and prime minister as part of a bid to garner support among Washington's European allies for a stronger stance against Russia after its five-day war with Georgia last month.

"It is not just a US problem, all of Europe has a stake in how this is handled and whether or not these sovereign independent states remain free and independently sovereign states," the official said.

"I think it will get resolved. The resolution that was adopted at the Bucharest summit that said Georgia and Ukraine will become members of NATO represents the thinking of most of our NATO allies."

At its summit in Bucharest in April, NATO refused to grant Ukraine and Georgia "Membership Action Plan" (MAP) status after French and German opposition, though leaders agreed on a statement saying "that these countries will become members of NATO" at an unspecified point in time.

Russia has opposed inclusion of Georgia and Ukraine, saying that NATO expansion and its support of a planned US anti-missile system in the Czech Republic and Poland is a "strategic error."

Source: AFP

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EU Set To Offer Ukraine, Cautious Encouragement

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- The European Union is set to offer Ukraine encouragement about closer ties and the prospect of an easier visa regime at a summit on Tuesday but stop short of any explicit pledge on future membership.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana

Despite concern about Russia's moves to roll back Western influence after intervening in Georgia, many EU states remain unwilling to offer such a pledge, given waning public support for EU expansion, Kiev's poor record on reform and a desire to avoid further straining ties with Moscow.

Political crisis in Ukraine that saw the collapse last week of a shaky coalition between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has reinforced such caution.

At a summit in the French resort of Evian on Tuesday, the 27 EU states will at least hold out the prospect of gradually closer ties with a country that is a key energy transit route and seen as crucial to the bloc's long-term strategy.

A draft summit text acknowledges Ukraine's European aspirations and adds "that gradual convergence of Ukraine with the EU in political, economic and legal areas will contribute to further progress in EU-Ukraine relations".

It describes a broad bilateral pact under negotiation as an "association agreement", wording that can imply the possibility of future membership, and the leaders will announce the launch of a dialogue towards an eventual visa-free regime.

At an EU foreign ministers meeting in Avignon at the weekend, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana called the relationship with Ukraine "very profound". "They have demanded we deepen that relationship; we are going to do it," he said.

But even among countries keen to see Ukraine as a future EU member -- which include Britain, the Nordic states and former communist countries such as Poland -- some caution remains.

"We have to take it one step at a time, be very careful," Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb said. "Ukraine is a European state, but at this stage it is too early to draw any conclusions about membership perspective or anything else."

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said in Avignon it was important to make sure the current political upheaval in Ukraine did not lead to national disunity.

"Equally, it is important that Europe's leaders make clear that we are determined on a long-term relationship with Ukraine with membership as a long-term goal."

However, an explicit statement of future membership prospects has been blocked by the Benelux countries, with Germany and Italy also not keen, not least to avoid further straining ties with Moscow, a key supplier of energy to Europe.

Russia has been incensed by the pledge of eventual NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia, another former Soviet state, and many see this as the spur for its intervention in Georgia.

In Avignon, EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner summed up the summit prospects by saying that while it would not offer Ukraine the explicit statement Kiev has been seeking, it would "not exclude any mood in the future".

Some analysts argue Ukraine is key to EU security and economic strategy and should be given more encouragement.

Tomas Valasek, from the Centre for European Reform think tank, said the European Union needed to clarify the message it was sending to Ukraine.

He called Ukraine the EU's most important neighbour given its size and location and ability to influence progress in other strategically important countries that have become vital to long-term EU plans to ensure future energy supplies.

"If it can successfully Europeanise ... it will clearly demonstrate to the Central Asian republics, to Azerbaijan and to Moldova and others that it's possible to be a former Soviet republic and a modern Western country," he said.

"It will show that there is nothing inevitable about former Soviet republics always being in the Russian orbit. That's why it's important for the EU to get it right."

Source: Telegraph UK

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Europe Must Bring Ukraine Into The Fold

LONDON, England -- In a spectacular case of bad timing, Ukraine’s government all but collapsed last week. President Viktor Yushchenko withdrew most of his deputies from the ruling coalition with Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister.

European Union flag

Unless the two reconcile or the prime minister finds new coalition partners soon, Ukraine may have to hold new elections – the third in two years.

This would be destabilising under normal circumstances but times are anything but normal. The war in Georgia has led to fears that Ukraine may be next on Russia’s hit list. Like Georgia, Ukraine wants to join the European Union and Nato, and it has Russian troops as well as a sizeable Russian minority on its territory.

To face the risks, the Ukrainians need reassurance that Europe will not consign them to a Russian sphere of influence. The EU seemed ready to give just such signal at tomorrow’s Ukraine-EU summit, by giving Ukraine a membership “perspective”. But after the government crisis broke out in Kiev, the opposition in the EU to Ukraine’s case hardened.

If the EU fails to move Ukraine closer to membership, it would make a mistake on par with the foolishness of Kiev’s politicians. To preserve a safe and stable eastern border – which the EU has taken for granted until the Georgia war proved it wrong – EU member states need to try harder to anchor their eastern neighbours to the EU.

Ukraine’s political scene, too, would become more stable if the country’s leadership had a clear EU membership perspective before it.

For years, the EU based its eastern strategy on a simple premise. With sufficient time, EU money and friendly nudging, the entire neighbourhood from Ukraine to Azerbaijan will become like Europe: liberal, democratic, international law-abiding, peaceful.

That theory turned to dust on August 7 when Russian tanks rolled into Georgia. Russia did not start the war but Moscow made war probable by encouraging Georgia’s separatist provinces to secede. Moscow did so to keep Georgia from joining Nato. From now on, the EU should assume that Russia will oppose – by force, if necessary – the expansion of western influence into eastern Europe.

The EU should respond in two ways. First, it should take an active role in defusing potential conflicts in countries separating it from Russia. Ukraine, with a population of 46m the largest of the EU’s eastern neighbours, should be the immediate focus.

The country fears that if and when it moves closer to the west, Russia will use its military presence in Crimea (the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol), and the pro-Moscow leanings of the local population, to break up Ukraine.

This may be what Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, had in mind when he said in April 2008 that Ukraine’s “fragility” would cause it to “disintegrate” upon entering Nato.

Europe can prevent such a scenario. The EU should finance infrastructure projects to turn Sevastopol into a commercial hub after the Russian fleet leaves. If the local population sees no alternative to income from the Russian fleet’s presence, they will be easy prey to Russian scaremongering.

Second, Europe should speed up its efforts to integrate Ukraine and other eastern neighbours into the EU. One of the lessons of the war is that the EU needs tools to discourage its neighbours from acting recklessly.

The EU can moderate the behaviour of neighbours, such as Georgia, by emphasising that destabilising actions will undermine prospects for EU (and Nato) membership. But, as things stand, this threat is not credible. So many EU governments oppose further enlargement that Ukraine does not think that the EU is seriously planning to accept it.

At the summit, the EU should begin to restore its influence in eastern Europe by putting Ukraine on a track to accession. The EU should call its new partnership deal with Ukraine an “association agreement” – this would echo past arrangements with the now-new member states of central Europe.

The EU should also say that it wants closer relations with Ukraine. This would tell the Ukrainians that they are not destined to be eternal neighbours, and will be welcome to join the EU once they meet the accession criteria.

Some EU countries will oppose these suggestions because they worry that Ukrainian workers will flood their job markets. But Ukraine will not join for many more years, and its workers may not be free to work in the EU for many years after accession. By that time Ukraine’s own economy, already growing handsomely, will absorb most jobs.

Other Europeans worry that Russia will view EU overtures to Ukraine as provocative.

They should take a more strategic view. The rationale for closer integration with Ukraine is not anti-Russian; it is to stabilise the EU’s borders. And the EU should be willing to run the risk of annoying Moscow when its own vital interests are at stake.

Source: The Financial Times

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Sunday, September 07, 2008

Ukraine In Suspense Over Tymoshenko's NATO Position

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's NATO aspirations have moved to the frontline of Russia's showdown with the West, but the biggest unanswered question is what Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's current position is on the country's bid for membership of the organisation.

Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko

Joining NATO has been a core part of President Viktor Yushchenko's platform, which Tymoshenko reluctantly signed up to while they were still political allies following the 2005 Orange Revolution.

However, after Tymoshenko made a Faustian deal on September 2 with opposition leader and her revolutionary nemesis Viktor Yanukovych, who heads the Regions of Ukraine party, she seems to be shifting her stance and preparing to drop these NATO membership ambitions.

NATO membership is a hot topic following the five-day Russo-Georgian war in August, yet Tymoshenko has pointedly refrained from making any comments on Ukraine's bid recently. During the conflict between Russia nd Georgia, the notorious firebrand also kept a conspicuously low profile, to the point where her opponents in the Rada started to brand her pro-Russian.

She also failed to join other former Soviet republic leaders at Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's side in the aftermath of the war. While she supported Georgian territorial integrity, she warned against hostility to Russia and against any retaliatory measures against Russia's Black Sea fleet based in the Crimea in Ukraine.

Tymoshenko's shift is so surprising it even prompted Ukraine's security service SBU, acting on information provided by the presidential administration, into investigating her and the government on suspicion of working "against the national interest."

The SBU specifically asked the prime minister's office to supply it with information about her negotiations with Russia over gas prices for 2009, amongst other things.

Tymoshenko moved into open opposition to Yushchenko on the first day of the new session of parliament by voting with Regions on a package of laws that will strip the president of many of his powers (including control over the SBU).

While it's very early days in the dispute, pundits are speculating that Tymoshenko has abandoned a plan to run for president in the next elections and is instead moving Ukraine towards becoming a parliamentary democracy. She has already said she intends to introduce as-yet unspecified changes to the constitution in the near future.

Yushchenko has responded by accusing her of treason and selling out Ukraine to Russia. The confrontation is scaling up fast. In a letter to the head of the SBU, leaked to a newspaper, presidential administration head Victor Baloha accused Tymoshenko of preparing a coup d'etat in Moscow's interest, and also taking out a contract on Baloha's life.

Already nervy investors are getting cold feet: trading was suspended on the stock market, the PFTS, on September 5 after the index plunged 7% and three-quarters of the listed companies posted share price losses.

The main victim in this escalating fight could be Ukraine's NATO bid. And there are two good reasons why Tymoshenko may end her support for membership.

Looking east

Firstly, attempting to join NATO will cost her votes. The most recent poll on the subject, released September 4, found that Ukrainian citizens prefer integration with Russia and other CIS countries to that with European and Euro-Atlantic structures.

Just over half the population favours closer ties with Russia and/or the CIS countries, while only 17% want to join the EU, according to the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences' Sociology Institute. In polls taken earlier this year over 60% of Ukrainians were against joining NATO, whereas they remain much more receptive to the idea of eventually joining the EU.

In the run-up to last year's parliamentary elections, Tymoshenko went out of her way to woo voters in the largely Russophile eastern part of Ukraine and has built up broad support across the country.

But if she is to move Ukraine towards a parliamentary democracy, then she needs to take the concerns of ethnic Russians to heart, which means moving closer to Moscow.

Tymoshenko and her eponymous party Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) are still only slightly ahead of former prime minister Yanukovych and his Party of Regions in the polls. Dropping support for joining NATO could win over significant numbers of voters from Regions.

To be a powerful long-term prime minister without relying on other parties, she will need a far larger majority in the Rada than she has now.

Secondly, Tymoshenko is entering tough negotiations with Russia over gas imports for 2009. Analysts say the gas price for Ukraine could double after Russia recently agreed to pay Central Asian producers European prices for their oil and gas.

With Ukrainian inflation already soaring and a current account deficit looming, this could create significant economic difficulties for Tymoshenko in 2009, as she will get the blame.

For its part, the Kremlin appears in the mood to deal. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has been travelling in Central Asia to bolster support for Russia and in addition to agreeing to up the price of Central Asian oil and gas, also signed off on new pipeline deals.

The Kremlin would certainly be open to softening a price hike in Ukraine's gas bill if Tymoshenko would back Russia in its standoff with the West.

US Vice President Dick Cheney was in Kyiv in early September to show his support for Ukrainian democracy. But that democratic process may end up pushing Ukraine into closer ties with Russia, not the West.

Source: Business Europe

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Playing Russian Roulette In Kiev

WASHINGTON, DC -- Four years ago, in the wake of the orange revolution, Ukraine captured the world's attention. The jubilation has long died down, to be replaced by frustration with the country's lively but exceedingly chaotic politics.

Members of Ukraine's parliament hold a Georgian flag as the chamber discusses the Caucasus crisis.

Late last month Kiev's political theater struck a new low when the president's office formally accused Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko—the former orange princess and still nominally an ally of the head of state—of high treason, and asked the national-security service to investigate allegations that she is an agent of the Kremlin.

Result: havoc in Parliament, collapse of the ruling coalition and the likelihood of a new parliamentary election, barely a year after the last one.

The most recent round of chaos reflects the vast schism that has long existed in Ukraine, but has been thrust onto center stage by Russia's incursion into Georgia. At the time of the Georgia crisis, according to the Segodnya newspaper, 51 per-cent of the population of Ukraine's western regions sided with Tbilisi, while 56 percent in the east backed Moscow.

On the parliamentary floor this month, while one faction proudly sat against the backdrop of the Georgian flag, another faction's leader moved to recognize Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's in-dependence.

Though such fault lines are nothing new in a diverse and fractious nation that counts no fewer than three Orthodox churches, plus a Greek Orthodox community that recognized the pope's authority, the trouble in the Caucasus may this time create a political earthquake with enormous consequences.

More than two thirds of the electorate—east, west or center, whatever their international preferences—want to be in the European Union and at the same time maintain good and close relations with Russia.

Membership in NATO would destroy any chance at the latter. Tymoshenko senses this, and basically shares the position. Although she once authored a piece in the U.S. journal Foreign Affairs calling for Russia's containment, and later signed a petition promoting Ukraine's membership in NATO, she is, if anything, a pragmatist who recognizes the complexities of her own country and its international environment.

But while her parliamentary coalition has collapsed, the deeply unpopular incumbent president, Viktor Yushchenko, has vowed to press on with his bid for re-election in the early 2010 presidential elections, building his campaign around a promise to link Ukraine with the West, against Russia.

On Ukrainian Independence Day, Aug. 24, he presided over a rare and controversial display of military hardware on Kiev's main avenue, and said that neutrality was no option for his country. He has taken a tough line in Crimea as well, where the Russian Navy shares its historic base in Sevastopol with Ukraine.

The Russian warships that were ordered to Georgia's Black Sea coast are based there, and to prevent them from freely slipping in and out of the port in the future, Yushchenko has decreed that Russia must notify Ukraine in advance of their intentions, and declare the armaments they will be carrying when crossing the border at sea.

The Russians can be expected to give symbolic concessions, but no one should imagine that they will accept that their destroyers will have to go through Customs. This is a particularly troublesome situation, especially if a small Ukrainian craft happens to be damaged by a Russian warship, and sinks in the shared harbor.

There is more than enough combustible stuff onshore as well, with a dispute over the Black Sea Fleet's infrastructure unresolved, and Ukrainian nationalist vigilantes and Russian veterans (who chant that Sevastopol is a city of Russian sailors) facing off against one another in heated, but so far peaceful, shouting matches in the streets.

There is also another element: Crimean Tatars, once owners of Crimea, then Russia's conquered subjects, and more recently Stalin's deportees to Central Asia, from where they have since returned, claiming land and heritage in a densely populated area.

Should real clashes occur, Kiev is likely to impose a state of emergency and send in troops, and the Russian irredentists could proclaim independence from Ukraine.

Given this mix, Georgia would be seen as a sideshow compared with what could happen in Ukraine. For those in the West who had long pushed for Ukraine's membership in NATO, Georgia offers a perfect argument in favor of putting Kiev on a fast track to join the alliance.

They see a pro-Western Ukraine as an indispensable bulwark against a neo-imperial Russia. For the Kremlin, Georgia represents the danger of letting the United States use an unstable neighboring state in a proxy war to hurt and provoke Russia.

Ukraine stands in the middle, and in addition to the intense domestic strife leading up the presidential elections, outside interference from both Russia and the West is a certainty.

This is a recipe for a crisis of European proportions. Yushchenko should not be allowed to play Russian roulette with his country, and sensible leaders in America, Europe, Russia and, of course, Ukraine need to agree on ways of keeping Ukraine united, and at peace. Georgia is a warning one can ill afford to ignore.

Source: Newsweek

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Ukraine’s PM Accuses President Of Self-Interest

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has accused President Viktor Yushchenko of putting his political ambitions before the national interest, adding to the bad blood between the former allies.

Yulia Tymoshenko - won’t be posting any ultimatums.

In an open letter, Tymoshenko said that Yushchenko was unable to change his ways and had his eye on winning a presidential election in 16 months’ time.

A coalition of his and her parties that supported the 2004 “Orange Revolution” that brought Yushchenko to power collapsed last week after ruling for only nine months. The former allies argued over almost all policy issues during that time.

Yushchenko and his party accused the prime minister of betraying Ukraine by siding with Russia in its war in Georgia, a charge she denies.

“If I were thinking not about the national interest, but about the next presidential election – as you are – I could also set you hundreds of ultimatums,” Tymoshenko wrote.

“Apologise to me and the government of democratic forces for the absurd accusations of high treason and your various fantasies of ‘Kremlin scenarios’,” would have been one of her ultimatums.

“However, Viktor Andreevych (Yushchenko), I will not pose any ultimatums, because I know that the nature of some people cannot be changed.”

Both are expected to run for the presidency, along with former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich who was defeated by Yushchenko in 2004.
Polls show Yushchenko lagging far behind Tymoshenko and Yanukovich, with just 7% support.

Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party left the coalition after Tymoshenko’s bloc and a rival party mustered a large majority in parliament to pass laws that reduced Yushchenko’s powers.

But many politicians from all the major parties including the opposition have said there is no appetite for a fresh election, which would be the third in as many years. Tymoshenko again called on Yushchenko’s group to rejoin the coalition.

Our Ukraine said it could return to the coalition if Tymoshenko’s bloc backed Georgia which fought Russia last month over its breakaway republics, ceased to cut presidential powers and agreed together on policy issues.

Politicians at home and abroad worried that after the war in which Russian troops chased Georgian forces out of a rebel region, Ukraine could be Moscow’s next target. Tymoshenko wrote that her government had “from day one” supported Georgia.

The coalition has until the end of next week or the beginning of the week after to reunite, after which parliament has a month to form a different coalition.

If it does not, Yushchenko can call for a snap parliamentary poll.

Source: Gulf Times

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Saturday, September 06, 2008

Cheney Holds Italy Talks After Vow Of Support For Georgia, Ukraine

LAKE COMO, Italy -- US Vice President Dick Cheney held talks with world leaders Saturday on the last stop of a four-nation tour in which he pledged US support for ex-Soviet republics after Russia's conflict with Georgia.

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney (R), arrives at a global conference of political and business leaders in Cernobbio, by the Como lake, Italy, Saturday, Sept. 6, 2008. Cheney is in this resort on Lake Como to attend an annual gathering of global political and business leaders.

Cheney met first with former president of Spain Jose Aznar at the Ambrosetti forum in picturesque Lake Como, and was later to meet Israeli President Shimon Peres and British Petroleum and Goldman Sachs International Board Chairman Peter Sutherland.

The US vice president was scheduled to address the conference, which brings together political and financial leaders to discuss world events, at 5:00 pm (1500 GMT).

Cheney arrived Friday in Italy after pledging Washington's "deep and abiding interest" in Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan, and slamming Russia's military actions last month over the rebel region of South Ossetia.

The US vice president also expressed support for Georgia and Ukraine becoming eventual members of NATO. He was expected to press that message to leaders at the conference, and in one-on-one talks.

During his trip, Cheney urged the expansion of energy routes that would take oil and gas to Europe and bypass oil giant Russia, pledged US support for ally Georgia and called on Ukraine's leaders to unite in the face of Russian "threats."

Source: AFP

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Russia Is Testing West And Crimea Could Be Target

UNITED NATIONS, NY -- A resurgent Russia is testing the West and Ukraine's strategic Crimea peninsula could become a target, the Czech Republic's deputy foreign minister warned Friday.

Czech Republic's deputy foreign minister Tomas Pojar.

Tomas Pojar said Russia's strong objection to U.S. missile defense bases in the Czech Republic and Poland and recent events in Georgia clearly indicate Moscow's opposition to Western influence in the former Soviet Union's sphere of influence.

"We are being tested," he told a group of U.N. journalists. "We should be careful. We should be firm."

Russia drew harsh criticism from the U.S. and Europe for recognizing two separatist Georgian territories as independent states following a short but devastating war that left Russian troops in control of a key Georgian Black Sea port and other locations deep inside Georgia.

The conflict followed an escalation of incidents over many months by pro-Russian separatists from South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and the Russian and Georgian military, and was sparked by Georgia's attempt to use force to retake control of South Ossetia.

"For us, the events of Georgia were not such a surprise," Pojar said. "We were predicting that there may be some escalation. We were trying to avoid it and warn everyone to be cautious."

The United States, which has been training the Georgian military, has said it also warned the government against military action.

Pojar Friday raised the possibility of confrontations with Moscow elsewhere.

"I think that we would not be surprised if in the future similar events, for example, develop in Crimea," he said. "We hope that it is not going to happen, but we think that the situation there is not very stable, and to provoke more instability would probably not be that difficult."

The Crimea peninsula on the Black Sea, once a jewel of Russia's empire, was a beloved tourist destination in the Soviet era and home to the proud Soviet naval base in the port of Sevastopol. But in 1954, control of the Crimea was handed to the then Soviet republic of Ukraine by leader Nikita Khrushchev, who had lived and worked there for years. After the 1991 Soviet breakup, it remained part of independent Ukraine, with an agreement allowing Russia to keep it's naval base there.

Pojar said the Crimea could become "some new frozen or unfrozen conflict because of the situation on the ground, because of the political demographic and (Russian) military presence in Crimea."

He said there are a lot of similarities to the situation in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Armenia's occupation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan.

The United States and the European Union should realize "the strategic importance of stability and prosperity in Ukraine and in the whole of Caucuses," he said.

"I don't think there should be talk of sanctions" by the West, Pojar said. "I think there should be strong (Western) presence in Caucuses and in Ukraine in terms of support of economic stability, recovery of Ukraine, international presence on the ground, international monitors on the ground — and it should be robust."

The Czech Republic supported a donor conference for Ukraine at a recent EU meeting and Pojar said he hopes it will take place soon.

He praised the U.S. announcement of a US$1 billion aid package for Georgia as exactly the right way to "move forward."

Pojar spoke to reporters as U.S. Vice president Dick Cheney started a tour of three ex-Soviet republics — Azerbaijan, Ukraine and Georgia — that are wary of Russia's intentions after last month's war with Georgia.

The Czech minister said he came to the United States for the first round of a strategic dialogue with U.S. government officials on foreign policy and security issues and defense and development cooperation.

The Czech government signed a bilateral treaty in July allowing the U.S. to build a radar base near Prague as part of a proposed U.S. missile defense system that has been harshly criticized by Russia.

Pojar said there is "significant opposition" to the treaty in parliament but the government expects it to be ratified by the end of the year.

He said the Czech Republic has also almost concluded status of forces negotiations with the United States. The text of the agreement is with the lawyers to be checked but the government is not expecting any problems, Pojar said.

Source: International Herald Tribune

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Crisis In Kiev?

KIEV, Ukraine -- The outlook for Ukraine is stormy, but the country's not about to split apart. Instead, a complex political dance is unfolding.

The Orange prince kisses the princess' hand, in advance of the parliamentary elections in 2007.

Dick Cheney, the US vice-president, arrived in Kiev this week amid what most Ukrainians will regard as just another seasonal gale. They have become acclimatised to their nation's stormy politics. To casual outside observers, though, it certainly sounds more serious than that.

When a prime minister is accused of leading a "constitutional coup" and a president is referred to as a "dictator" it might be assumed that civil unrest is on the cards. It isn't.

What might make the bickering all the more incomprehensible is that the dispute centres on the two heroes of the 2004 Orange revolution. President Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister, at one time the prince and princess of western values, have found it almost impossible to work together since.

Nevertheless, for all the violent epithets they throw at each other, the Orange revolution represented a watershed: disputes, no matter how fierce, will be resolved within the (imperfect) constitutional framework. Ukraine's politics are certainly robust – but so is its democracy.

The Orange bloc dissolved more quickly than most liberation movements. With the latest crisis coming so soon after the Russia-Georgia war, it makes sense to hunt for Moscow's fingerprints. They are not hard to find: the Putin/Medvedev regime doesn't use kid gloves.

Still, wholly domestic Ukrainian factors are also at play. Real differences exist between President Yushchenko and his erstwhile ally, not merely of personality or in terms of the nuances of foreign policy, but in the vital economic realm as well.

Moscow will not be unhappy this week with events in the neighbour it too often still regards as a satellite but, in fairness, Putin is not to blame for Ukraine's inflation rate and the cabinet's seeming inability to restrain public spending.

Yulia Tymoshenko might like to portray herself in front of some audiences as an eastern European Margaret Thatcher, but the reality is of a shameless economic populist. Yes, she supports privatisation – as does the president – but, for her, it is a means to enrich an oligarchic elite and fund lavish public spending.

Moreover, while supporters of the two Orange parties, Our Ukraine-Self Defence (OU) and Bloc Tymoshenko (BYuT), share the same basic attitudes – in contrast to the openly pro-Russian Party of Regions (PoR) and the Communists – the prime minister has recently modified her positions somewhat.

When President Yushchenko and counterparts from Poland and the Baltic states were on the barricades in Tbilisi last month defending Georgia's independence, Ukraine's prime minister was notably absent and unable to provide any details of her whereabouts over a two-week period.

She has also appeared ambivalent about ending Russia's lease on the port facilities at Sevastopol, which expires in 2017. The president has been clear that he sees the Black Sea fleet's continued presence as an anachronism.

The assumption that Tymoshenko is courting favour with Moscow in advance of the presidential elections in 2010 in which she is a strong candidate was borne out by the votes this week in the Rada, the Ukrainian parliament.

Tymoshenko's MPs joined forces with the PoR in an attempt to limit the presidential prerogative in the field of foreign affairs and reduce the status of the office from a French-style presidency to a purely ceremonial role.

Although Ukraine still enjoys strong economic growth, it must be questioned whether constitutional change needs to be rushed through when the price of staple goods is most Ukrainians' focus.

Tymoshenko enjoys a cult-like following and has improved her poll position, but because her government's record is flimsy, she is unlikely to want early elections. Yushchenko's promise to put things in the people's hands is commendable and no idle threat – he has done so several times before – but it is not inconceivable that these two will patch things up.

Yushchenko might be prepared to risk electoral humiliation in early elections but his primary interest is in maintaining some degree of unity on policy in the run-up to the decision on Ukraine's application for a Nato accession plan in December.

Equally, the prime minister might want to tease votes away from the PoR but if she were forced into a coalition with them it might destabilise her own power base, which understands it would freeze the process of further Euro-Atlantic integration.

Ukraine has managed reasonably well to accommodate its various minorities – not just the Russophone one – by providing generous autonomy for Crimea, for instance. But events in Georgia have certainly given politics a new edge.

Ukraine took a once-and-for-always decision in 2004; it sees its destiny as being with the rest of Europe. The prime minister now has to demonstrate whether she is still in step with Ukraine's citizens or dancing to a different tune, one played on the balalaika.

Source: Guardian UK

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Ukraine Will Not Be Offered Prospect Of EU Membership

AVIGNON, France -- EU foreign ministers signalled yesterday that Ukraine would not be offered the prospect of future membership of the union at a summit meeting next week in France.

Secretary-general of the EU Council Javier Solana at a meeting of the European Union's foreign ministers in Avignon, France, yesterday.

They also called for an inquiry to be established to find out who was responsible for the start of the devastating conflict in the Georgian region of South Ossetia last month.

"The question of who participated, and with what motives, in the escalation to armed conflict is important as we consider future ties with the conflict parties - and I mean both Georgia and Russia," German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told journalists yesterday at an EU foreign ministers meeting in Avignon, France, which is discussing the crisis.

He said the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which has monitors on the ground in Georgia, had information about the run-up to the conflict.

Georgia and Russia have blamed each other for starting the conflict in South Ossetia, which erupted unexpectedly on the eve of the Olympic Games on August 7th.

Mr Steinmeier's call for an independent inquiry was backed by Italy. Italian foreign minister Franco Frattini said he had got positive signals on it from Moscow and Tbilisi.

"I spoke about this idea with both the Russian Federation and Georgia. Both told me they are not against. There are good possibilities to launch it," he added.

Austria and Luxembourg also supported an inquiry, while British foreign minister David Miliband said Britain had always called for verification of allegations of human rights abuses. "We have always said we would follow them up without fear or favour," said Mr Miliband, who has argued Russia must face consequences for its actions in the conflict.

EU foreign ministers will return to the Georgian crisis today when they are expected to discuss the launch of a civilian monitoring mission and aid to help rebuild the country's shattered infrastructure following the ceasefire brokered by the EU in mid-August.

They will also discuss how to respond to an increasingly assertive Russia, which has proved in Georgia that it is prepared to use military action to exert influence in its neighbourhood.

They are also expected to focus on Ukraine, which is in the midst of a government crisis and is one of several states in eastern Europe that is in Russia's sphere of influence.

But hopes expressed by some EU states, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, that the union may offer Kiev the prospect of future EU membership at an EU-Ukraine summit next week were dashed.

France the current holder of the EU's rotating presidency ruled out using a planned EU-Ukraine summit next week to offer Ukraine official-candidate status.

"If you have no Lisbon you have no enlargement," said French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner when questioned as to whether Ukraine could become an EU candidate state in the near future.

Instead the summit is expected to offer the prospect of closer ties to the EU without declaring that Ukraine is eligible for future membership of the bloc.

Source: The Irish Times

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Friday, September 05, 2008

Cheney Pledges Support For Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- As tensions with Moscow continued over Russia’s invasion of Georgia last month, Vice President Dick Cheney renewed Washington’s backing for Ukraine on Friday, asserting America’s claim to act as a guarantor in country that was part of the former Soviet Union.

Vice President Cheney, his wife Lynne, left, and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and his wife at the memorial for the victims of the Holodomor in Kiev, Ukraine, on Friday.

Mr. Cheney’s pledge, offered during a visit here, coincided with the arrival of a United States Navy command ship, the Mount Whitney, off the Black Sea port of Poti, close to positions taken by the Russian military in last month’s invasion.

American officials said the warship was delivering blankets and other relief supplies, but Russia immediately questioned whether its presence contravened international agreements, dating to 1936 and governing access by military vessels to the Black Sea.

The ship arrived off Poti one day after Mr. Cheney, on a tour of former Soviet satellite countries, flew to Tbilisi, Georgia to deliver a forceful American pledge to rebuild Georgia and its economy, to preserve its sovereignty and its territory and to bring it into the NATO alliance in defiance of Russia.

The Mount Whitney was the third American warship to sail into the Black Sea in the last month, a naval relief operation the Russians have denounced as military, not humanitarian.

Like Georgia, Ukraine is seeking membership in NATO. After meeting with President Viktor Yushchenko, Mr. Cheney repeated Friday that Ukraine would one day join the alliance and said Ukrainians should be able to live “without the threat of tyranny, economic blackmail and military invasion or intimidation,” the Associated Press reported. He said Washington had a “deep and abiding interest” in Ukraine’s security.

Mr. Cheney spent only four and a half hours in Georgia, but the visit included a strong rebuke to Russia and a visit to American troops unloading humanitarian supplies at the airport here within sight of an airplane factory that Russian bombs had damaged.

Underscoring Washington’s commitment to Tbilisi, the United States pledged $1 billion Wednesday to help Georgia recover from its defeat by Russia’s armed forces, which continue to control two breakaway regions, as well as buffer zones in Georgia.

Standing beside President Mikheil Saakashvili on Thursday, Mr. Cheney said that the United States had strongly supported Georgia since protests in 2003 ushered a democratic government to power and that it would continue to do so despite Russia’s proclamations that Mr. Saakashvili’s government was illegitimate.

“I assured the president as well of my country’s strong commitment to Georgia’s territorial integrity,” Mr. Cheney said after meeting with Mr. Saakashvili, without aides, for more than an hour, twice the scheduled time. “Georgia has that right, just as it has the right to build stronger ties to friends in Europe and across the Atlantic.”

The Bush administration has been Georgia’s most vocal supporter in its conflict with Russia, leaving diplomatic efforts to negotiate a cease-fire almost entirely to leaders from the European Union, including President Nicolas Sarkozy of France.

In his press conference with Mr. Saakashvili Mr. Cheney denounced what he called “an illegitimate, unilateral attempt to change your country’s borders by force that has been universally condemned by the free world.”

Mr. Cheney reiterated, in some of the strongest language yet, administration statements that Russia had jeopardized its international standing.

“Russia’s actions have cast grave doubt on Russia’s intentions and on its reliability as an international partner, not just in Georgia but across this region and indeed throughout the international system,” he said.

His remarks drew a sharp riposte from Moscow Friday. “The new promises to Tbilisi relating to the speedy membership of NATO simply strengthened the Saakashvili regime’s dangerous feelings of impunity and encourages its dangerous ambitions,” the Russian foreign ministry spokesman, Andrei Nesterenko, said.

Mr. Cheney’s tour of the region also included a visit to Azerbaijan on Wednesday.

For some, Mr. Cheney’s trip recalled another foray to the region in 2006, during which the vice president accused Moscow of using oil and gas as “tools of intimidation or blackmail.”

In that light, one expert said, Mr. Cheney’s presence is potentially an aggravating factor.

“Given Cheney’s reputation in Moscow, given his rhetorical history, sending him to Georgia risks escalating the situation,” Clifford Kupchan of the Eurasia Group, a consultancy in Washington, said. “We’re in a stage of mutual overreaction.”

The Pentagon has begun considering Georgian pleas for help to re-equip and train its army, with the use of more sophisticated weapons.

But a senior administration official traveling with Mr. Cheney said that Georgia first needed to revive its economy. “Over time, I’m sure, people will look at what happened with the military here and what its needs are,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But I think the focus for the moment is on the humanitarian and long-term economic needs.”

Source: The New York Times

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Cheney In Ukraine As Political Crisis Deepens

KIEV, Ukraine -- US Vice President Dick Cheney arrived in Ukraine on Thursday as a bitter row between pro-Western political forces in the ex-Soviet republic threatened to bring down the government.

US Vice President Dick Cheney reviews honour guard, upon his arrival in Kiev.

Cheney was expected on Friday to meet President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose political feuding has intensified over ties with Russia during its confrontation with Georgia and the West.

Cheney has said his visit is intended to bolster US allies in the former Soviet region. Ukraine has applied to join NATO and the European Union, angering Moscow which sees the country as part of its sphere of influence.

European officials have suggested Ukraine could be the next flashpoint for tensions between Russia and the West after a war in Georgia last month that has left Russian troops occupying positions deep inside Georgian territory.

Yushchenko on Wednesday accused his opponents in parliament of a coup attempt and threatened early parliamentary elections after the prime minister's party sided with pro-Russian deputies to pass laws cutting his powers.

Tymoshenko, once a close ally of Yushchenko, in turn accused the president of having "destroyed" the governing coalition by pulling out of an alliance with her party after the approval of the legislation.

But Tymoshenko has also called for members of parliament from the president's Our Ukraine party to return to the coalition. The deputies have 10 days in which they can revoke their decision to pull out.

On Thursday, the independent daily Gazeta 24, quoting unnamed lawmakers in Tymoshenko's parliamentary bloc, said the prime minister and the leader of the pro-Moscow Regions Party had already agreed to form a new coalition.

The report said Tymoshenko would remain as prime minister while the Regions Party leader, the Moscow-backed former prime minister and bitter presidential rival Viktor Yanukovych, would take over as speaker of parliament.

"Tymoshenko will dance to Moscow's tune," the Kommersant newspaper quoted a member of parliament from the president's party as warning, reinforcing accusations that Tymoshenko is toeing the Kremlin line.

Tymoshenko has denied this but has not spoken out on the Georgia crisis.

Ukrainian analysts said the political crisis could set back Ukraine's attempts to join NATO and the EU but that Cheney would seek to keep in place the country's increasingly fragile pro-Western leadership.

"Cheney will try to push Ukraine towards preserving the pro-Western coalition," which has not yet been formally disbanded, said Valery Chaly, an analyst at the Razumkov Centre for political and economic research.

Segodnya, a newspaper close to the pro-Russian opposition, said the crisis was "very annoying news" for Washington, which wants "Tymoshenko and Yushchenko working together to bring Ukraine into NATO."

In other developments, a pro-Russian member of parliament put forward a motion calling for Foreign Minister Vladimir Ogryzkov to be sacked for allowing a US warship to visit the Sevastopol naval base, located in southern Ukraine.

Tymoshenko and Yushchenko were the icons of the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution and have each been considered Western-leaning politicians despite persistent and sharp disagreements on domestic political issues.

Last month however Yushchenko's backers accused Tymoshenko of "high treason" for allegedly siding with Moscow in its conflict with Georgia.

Tymoshenko had abstained from a vote to impose restrictions on the movements of Russia's Black Sea fleet, which is based along with the Ukrainian navy in Sevastopol and was involved in military action against Georgia.

Cheney is to meet the two leaders separately -- the prime minister for one-on-one talks in the morning, followed by lunch with the president.

He is scheduled to visit the Holdomor memorial to Ukraine's famine victims before departing later in the afternoon for Italy.

Source: AFP

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Thursday, September 04, 2008

EU To Put Brakes On Quick Membership For Ukraine - Diplomats

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- Ukraine's hopes of becoming a candidate for E.U. membership, which had increased amid the conflict in Georgia, are likely to be deflated at an E.U.-Ukraine summit next week, European diplomats said Wednesday.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy supports Ukraine's bid for EU membership.

France, which holds the E.U.'s rotating presidency, recently warmed to Ukraine's candidacy, and Ukraine had hoped that Russia's intervention in Georgia had tipped the scales in its favor.

However, after talks by ambassadors of the 27 E.U. nations Wednesday, a draft declaration prepared for an E.U.-Ukraine summit in Evian, France, Sept. 9 tells another story, according to diplomats close to the issue.

On the plus side, the E.U. members agree that the partnership agreement currently being negotiated with Ukraine should be called an "Association Agreement" -- the term used for similar pacts with Balkan nations which have a recognized future within the E.U..

However, the draft summit declaration makes no mention of the key "European perspective" for Ukraine, which Ukraine had been hoping for, and which is familiar eurospeak for an eventual goal of E.U. membership.

The E.U. has been divided over whether the former Soviet state should be allowed to enter, perhaps even more divided than it is over strife-torn Georgia.

Poland and the Baltic countries, as well as Sweden and the U.K., have always insisted that Ukraine is a European nation and therefore deserves a place at the table.

But the nations of "Old Europe," led by Germany, are opposed, amid concerns about continued enlargement, and also about irritating Russia, which has flexed its energy and political muscles, along with its military muscles.

Ukraine had hoped that Russia's military intervention in Georgia would work in its favor, as fears of grow of a resurgent Russia seeking renewed influence in former Soviet republics.

However, in the draft statement - drawn up for French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko and E.U. Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso to approve - the E.U. simply acknowledges "the European aspirations of Ukraine" rather than sharing them, and "leaves open the way for further progressive developments in E.U.-Ukraine relations".

If the Georgian conflict has had any impact on Europe's attitude to Ukraine, it is "in the fact that we have held to our pre-summer position," said one diplomat.

One consolation for Kiev is that the Europeans are prepared to discuss conditions for an eventual visa-free travel deal with Ukraine.

However, even this falls well short of a commitment amid E.U. fears of a new illegal immigration problem.

Source: AFP

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Fears For Ukraine As Pro-West Coalition Fails

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's pro-west coalition collapsed yesterday, plunging the country into political uncertainty, hitting financial markets and undermining recent efforts by western leaders to show their support for Kiev following Russia's intervention in Georgia.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko speaks as she makes a statement in Kiev, Ukraine, Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2008. Ukraine's president called for a new governing coalition Wednesday and threatened fresh elections, accusing his rival prime minister and opposition parties of attempting a 'constitutional coup.'

President Viktor Yushchenko threatened to dissolve parliament and call snap elections unless a new coalition can be formed, blaming the crisis on supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko, his firebrand prime minister.

While Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko joined forces in the 2004 Orange Revolution and both support west-oriented policies, they have engaged in a bitter personal power struggle that has persistently handicapped the government.

The upheaval comes just before Dick Cheney, the US vice-president, arrives in Kiev this week with a message of support for Ukraine and a few days before Mr Yushchenko is due to travel to France for a European Union-Ukraine summit.

Kiev is seeking membership of both the EU and Nato and wants to secure increased western backing to counter growing Russian political and economic pressure.

Although the coalition has not yet been formally scrapped, ministers backing Mr Yushchenko yesterday walked out of a cabinet meeting and their Our Ukraine party threatened to quit the coalition.

Addressing the nation, Mr Yushchenko accused Ms Tymoshenko's followers of plotting an "anticonstitutional coup" by voting in tan-dem with the opposition Communist and -Moscow-leaning Regions parties in favour of legislation to cut the president's authority. "Without a doubt, the collapse of the coalition was a well-planned action," he said.

Ms Tymoshenko hit back, blaming the crisis on Mr Yushchenko's "fight" for next year's presidential election, in which both politicians are expected to run. She also denied being soft on the Georgia conflict, saying: "My position on Georgia is in line with the EU position, and is not to drag Ukraine into any conflicts."

Russia's military incursion in Georgia has raised fears in Kiev that Moscow could next target Ukraine, a much larger country of 46m where Russia and the west have also jostled for influence.

Moscow has denied suggestions it could challenge Ukraine's territorial integrity, but has openly protested against the speedy westward integration drive adopted by Mr Yushchenko, especially plans to join Nato, pointing out that Ukrainians are themselves divided over joining the alliance.

Kiev hopes to conclude an agreement on closer integration with the EU at the summit in France, on September 9. Ukraine's president also hopes Nato will grant his country a membership action plan in December.

Olexiy Haran, a political science professor in Kiev, said the political standoff in Kiev was rooted more in the ambitions of Ukraine's political elite than in any plot by Russia to undercut Kiev's pro-west path. But he warned that "Moscow would try to capitalise on it".

"If the coalition collapses, Ukraine's pro-western drive will not change in the long term, but it will suffer short-term setbacks. This scenario would complicate Ukraine's efforts to integrate closer with Nato and the European Union in the near term."

Mr Yushchenko's camp has accused Ms Tymoshenko of siding with the Kremlin by refusing to adopt a resolution sharply condemning Moscow for its actions in Georgia.

Ms Tymoshenko said her position was in line with the EU's and that she did not want to drag Ukraine into conflict.

A new coalition, which must be formed within 40 days to avoid elections, could include opposition parties that lean towards Moscow. Speculation has abounded that either Ms Tymoshenko's or Mr Yushchenko's party could join forces with the Regions party of Viktor Yanukovich, former prime minister. who also plans to run in next year's presidential polls.

Many politicians see all the bickering as pre-presidential election manoeuvring.

An early parliamentary poll could cost Mr Yushchenko's party dearly as it is far behind the Tymoshenko and Yanukovich parties in opinion polls.

In financial markets, the Ukrainian currency re-mained largely stable but the PFTS index fell 3.8 per cent. Ukraine's five-year credit default swap rate - the cost of insuring debt - rose from 445 to 463 basis points, a new high.

Source: The Financial Times

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Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Ukraine Coalition Collapses Under Russian Pressure

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's ruling coalition collapsed last night under the weight of Russian pressure designed to weaken Western allies in the former Soviet Union.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko gestures speaking at a news conference in Kiev, Ukraine on Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2008. Ukraine's president ordered the creation of a new governing coalition Wednesday and threatened fresh elections, accusing his rival prime minister and opposition parties of attempting a "constitutional coup."

President Victor Yushchenko angrily denounced his former ally, the Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko for siding with the pro-Russian opposition in a series of parliamentary votes.

"Yesterday, a political and constitutional coup began in parliament," he said. "I consider the events in the Ukrainian parliament a formal beginning of the formation of a new parliamentary coalition."

In a televised address to the nation after his political party withdrew from the government, Mr Yushchenko threatened to call an election within two months.

His comments had greater impact because they came a day before the US vice president Dick Cheney was scheduled to arrive in Kiev to shore up Western allies threatened by Russia.

"I will use my right to dismiss parliament and announce early elections," he said.

The success of Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" in 2004 was based on his bond with Mrs Tymoshenko, but relations started to fray soon after they took office.

Although he sacked Mrs Tymoshenko, he was forced to reappoint her late last year after her party won the largest share of the vote in the general election.

Their feud was reignited by Russia's invasion of Georgia last month.

Ukraine, like Georgia, has risked the Kremlin's wrath by applying to join Nato. But while Mr Yushchenko flew to Tbilisi to show his support for Georgia, Mrs Tymoshenko refused to criticise Russia's actions.

Instead, she formed an alliance with the man he replaced as president in 2004 - Victor Yanukovich and his former Communist allies.

In the run-up to that election, Mr Yushchenko was maimed after suffering dioxin poisoning - an attack attributed to Kremlin agents.

"The new coalition formed by Tymoshenko, Yanukovich and the Communists will not serve Ukraine's interests," he said. "Citizens will see that their policies will not protect Ukraine's territorial integrity, its independence and its European integration course."

For her part, Mrs Tymoshenko has accused the president of recklessly antagonising Russia and said there was no justification for the crisis. "A democratic coalition was ruined yesterday on his instructions," she told the weekly cabinet meeting. "This is panic. A democratic coalition has to work.

"The president and his office have used every means to ruin the coalition. It is a pity that the president is behaving irresponsibly."

A flamboyant figure, Mrs Tymoshenko is Ukraine's most popular politician and the current dispute could free her from a pledge not to challenge the president's re-election bid in 2010.

With a large Russian-speaking minority and a pro-Western political elite, Ukrainians are deeply divided over their relations with their powerful neighbour.

Ukraine's leaders fear that Moscow's aggressive protection of its passport holders in the Georgian enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia could be replicated in its own province of Crimea.

Mr Yushchenko has threatened to evict Russia's Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol, the Crimean port with an ethnic Russian majority.

However, as Mr Cheney arrives in the region, America's position has been weakened by the political squabbling in Kiev.

Mrs Tymoshenko is growing in influence.

She has been careful to send Moscow a more calibrated message, condemning her rival's decision on Sevastopol and agreeing to meet Vladimir Putin later this month.

New elections would bring about a final schism between the leaders of the Orange Revolution, paving the way for Mrs Tymoshenko to challenge for the presidency in 2010.

Source: Telegraph UK

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Ukraine's Pro-Western Government On Brink Of Collapse

KIEV, Ukraine -- The party of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko decided to quit the pro-Western governing coalition on Wednesday, plunging Ukraine into a new political crisis as relations with Russia worsened.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko

Leaders of Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party were due to announce their decision officially to parliament at around 0700 GMT and were expected to hold talks with the president starting from 0900 GMT.

The decision would come into force in 10 days if maintained. It was approved by a narrow majority of 39 out of the party's 72 deputies in the parliament, Ukrainian media reported, citing officials.

The move came in response to the adoption on Tuesday of a series of laws that would weaken the powers of the president, laws initiated by the pro-Russian opposition in league with the Tymoshenko Bloc.

The Tymoshenko Bloc is headed by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who is sharply at odds with the president, despite broadly sharing his pro-Western political goals.

In a heated parliament session on Tuesday, the Ukrainian president's party stormed out of the chamber in protest at the adoption of the laws, which would also ease the rules for impeaching the president, Ukrainian media reported.

In a sign of deepening divisions, the ruling coalition on Tuesday also failed to agree a joint declaration about the war between Russia and Georgia, which like Ukraine is bidding to join NATO and the European Union.

Yushchenko has accused Tymoshenko of "high treason and political corruption" for allegedly siding with Moscow over the conflict in Georgia last month, a charge she has denied.

If the pro-Western allies Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko Bloc do not get back together and the decision to split comes into effect, members of parliament would have a further 30 days to form another coalition government.

The president would have the right to dissolve parliament if talks failed.

Tymoshenko has long had rocky relations with Yushchenko despite their alliance in the peaceful protests known as the Orange Revolution of 2004.

She is believed to be planning to run against Yushchenko for president in elections due in 2009 or 2010.

Tymoshenko abstained from a vote in Ukraine's Security Council last month imposing restrictions on the movements of Russia's Black Sea fleet, which is based in southern Ukraine and was involved in military action against Georgia.

European officials including French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn have warned Ukraine could be the next target of political pressure from Russia in its mounting stand-off with the West.

US Vice President Dick Cheney was due to visit Kiev this week as part of a four-nation tour to support US allies Georgia and Ukraine. Cheney arrived in oil-rich Azerbaijan on Wednesday at the start of his tour.

Source: AFP

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Polish Lawmakers Urge Fast NATO Membership For Georgia, Ukraine

WARSAW, Poland -- The Polish parliament Tuesday urged the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to step up work for Georgia and Ukraine to join the alliance amid tensions over the conflict in Georgia.

Poland's Parliament

"The Parliament of the Republic of Poland holds the position that the right answer for NATO to give in the current situation should be the intensification of activity for the membership of Georgia and Ukraine in the North Atlantic Alliance," reads the unanimously adopted resolution.

Polish lawmakers also urged the European Union to "conduct a determined policy of eastern enlargement," and condemned Russia's military action in Georgia.

"The continuation of the West's dialogue with Russia demands its unequivocal respect for the basic principles of international law," the resolution says.

The move comes as Georgia Tuesday formally broke diplomatic relations with Russia following Russia's occupation of parts of Georgia

Legislators also voiced their support for the conclusions adopted at the E.U. emergency summit Monday on the Georgia crisis.

E.U. leaders decided to suspend negotiations with Russia on a new partnership agreement until Russia concludes a withdrawal of its troops from Georgian territory they entered on or after Aug. 8.

A member of the Soviet bloc until it shed communism in 1989, Poland joined NATO in 1999 and the E.U. in 2004. Georgia broke free from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

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Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Ukraine Defence Faces Dilemma After Georgia Crisis

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's defence sector has called for a big rise in funding for the military after Russia's war with Georgia but its reliance on Russian supplies of weapons and parts poses a dilemma.

A MiG-29 firing an AA-10 rocket.

Ukraine's leaders backed Georgia in the war over breakaway South Ossetia and expressed anger that Russia used ships from its fleet stationed in Ukraine's Crimea region.

Politicians have voiced fears Ukraine could be Russia's next target, although analysts say an imminent invasion is most unlikely.

"Russia's actions have compelled our generals to look at the possibility of using force and this has handed them the argument that we must strengthen the armed forces," military expert Serhiy Zgurets said.

But Ukraine has limited options to overhaul its military. If it meets its aim of joining NATO, Russia is likely to withhold the components it still needs to assemble its weapons. Switching entirely to NATO weapons would be hugely expensive.

Ukraine is among the world's top 10 arms exporters. After the collapse of the Soviet Union it inherited a defence industry producing tanks, planes, anti-aircraft and radar systems and technological backup.

However, it has not been able to afford to buy what it exports. Ukraine's defence budget this year is just 10 billion hryvnias (1.1 billion pounds) or 1 percent of gross domestic product.

"The Ukrainian army buys nothing new. Financing goes only towards feeding soldiers and supporting their battle-worthiness at whatever level," said Serhiy Bondarchuk, head of the state arms export company, Ukrspetsexport.

The 200,000-strong armed forces still use ageing Soviet-designed fighter jets such as the MiG-29 and Su-24 and tanks like the T-62.

"Formally, all our technical resources are obsolete," Zgurets said. "This does not mean that we will not use them."

Artillery cannon, for example, last 15 years but Ukraine has had no new supplies since the Soviet days almost 20 years ago.

Bondarchuk says unless the army receives a minimum of 3 billion to 5 billion hryvnias per year for modernisation and new purchases, soldiers will be coming out "on horses wielding sabres" at military parades.

CONUNDRUM

Defence Minister Yuri Yekhanurov, supported by President Viktor Yushchenko, hopes this year's budget will be amended to add another 5 billion hryvnias to buy new weapons. He wants to triple the defence budget to more than $6 billion in 2009.

According to defence industry publication Jane's Industry Quarterly, Russia's defence budget is $37 billion this year, Britain spends $80 billion, and the United States $700 billion.

"I think the situation in the world, which has recently seriously changed, will cause our politicians to think about the future of Ukraine. If they give us the possibility, we are ready to buy whatever is sitting in the factories," Yekhanurov said.

Even if the budget is raised, Kiev must find a strategy that shrugs off reliance on Russia.

In a legacy from Soviet times, the production process for weapons systems is split between factories in Russia and Ukraine. Manufacturing a missile, for example, would require bringing in components from Russia.

Russia said in June it would severe all defence industry ties should Ukraine join NATO and later said it would replace Ukrainian-made engines in its cruise missiles with local ones.

Analysts say the domestic defence industry could only meet 10 percent of the army's needs. If Russia does cut defence ties, Ukraine's armed forces would have to be totally overhauled to be able to buy from NATO members.

"There is a strategic problem modernising even the basic components of our weapons," Zgurets said.

The alternative could be to halt the process of joining NATO. But Yushchenko has made NATO membership a cornerstone of his policy of integration with the West and says it is the best way to protect Ukraine from any aggression.

Zgurets said if Ukraine turns its back on NATO it could continue buying from Russia, as well as other non-NATO military suppliers such as Sweden, known for its jets, and Israel, with its good logistical equipment.

Source: Telegraph UK

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Cheney To `Stiffen The Spine' Of Georgia, Ukraine

WASHINGTON, DC -- Vice President Dick Cheney will reassure three former Soviet republics that the U.S. backs their pro-West aspirations in the highest-level American visit since last month's war between Russia and Georgia.

US Vice President Dick Cheney

On his first trip to the region, Cheney departs today for Azerbaijan and Georgia, which are crucial to the westward flow of energy via a corridor that bypasses Russia. He also will stop in Ukraine, whose desire to join NATO is opposed by Russia.

``Cheney's mission is to stiffen the spine'' of the countries' leaders, said Mark Parris, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey who also served as a diplomat in Moscow. ``They'll want to know U.S. plans, and what's available, to ensure that Russia isn't able to throw its weight around more broadly in the region.''

Joining condemnations by President George W. Bush and other European Union leaders, Cheney called Russia's invasion of Georgia an ``unjustified assault'' on Aug. 27.

Russian troops attacked to counter Georgia's attempt to retake the pro-Moscow separatist region of South Ossetia by force on Aug. 7. Russia routed Georgia in a five-day war, occupied a third of it for days more, left behind peacekeepers to protect South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another breakaway, and then recognized their independence over the West's objections.

``The overriding priority, especially in Baku, Tbilisi and Kiev, will be the same: a clear and simple message that the U.S. has a deep and abiding interest in the well-being and security in this part of the world,'' John Hannah, Cheney's national security adviser, told reporters last week. The journey, partly planned before the war, ``has clearly taken on increased importance.''

Aliyev, Yushchenko

After meeting with the three presidents -- Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine, Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia -- Cheney will end his trip in Italy with a speech on security and meetings with Italian leaders.

Cheney's trip starts a day after EU leaders met in Brussels and suspended trade talks with Russia without imposing tougher sanctions, signaling their limited appetite for confronting it too aggressively. NATO has halted cooperation exercises with Russia.

The U.S. military has shipped humanitarian war-relief supplies to Georgia and is considering scrapping a planned nuclear cooperation deal with Russia.

EU Stance

``We welcome the European Union's decisions on Georgia today,'' White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said in a statement. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, holder of the EU's six-month presidency, will visit Russia Sept. 8 to demand that Russia pull back behind the pre-war lines.

The EU summit ``demonstrates that Europe and the U.S. are united in standing firm behind Georgia's territorial integrity, sovereignty and reconstruction,'' Perino said.

Bush is awaiting Cheney's findings before deciding on what else, if anything, to do, Perino said Aug. 28. ``This is not something we're rushing into,'' she said.

U.S. officials have expressed concern that Russia may pose a threat to Ukraine, which is a conduit for Russian natural gas exports to other European countries. Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine in a 2006 dispute over a price increase, creating shortages in Hungary and Italy.

Putin on Ukraine

Russia's prime minister, Vladimir Putin, on Aug. 29 rejected suggestions that it may target Ukraine, saying his country has ``long recognized'' its neighbor's borders, and said Russia will honor energy-export contracts.

Yushchenko has supported Georgia in its conflict with Russia, joining leaders of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia in a solidarity rally in Tbilisi on Aug. 14. He will press Cheney for ``additional support from the U.S.'' as Ukraine seeks to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said Olexiy Haran, a professor of comparative politics at the Kiev-Mohyla Academy in Kiev.

Cheney's first stop, Azerbaijan, is the hub for the development of Caspian Sea oilfields. Its capital, Baku, is the starting point for a U.S.-backed pipeline that ships crude to a Turkish Mediterranean port via Georgia.

The U.S. is also supporting the development of gas pipelines to connect Central Asian producers with European countries, skirting Russia.

`Understands Energy'

``Cheney understands energy,'' and ``this is as much about the transportation corridors between East and West as it is about the military threat,'' said Ariel Cohen, an expert on Russia at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

Cheney was chairman of Halliburton Co., the Houston-based energy-services company, from 1995 to 2000, after serving as defense secretary during the 1991 war to evict invading Iraqi forces from Kuwait and its oilfields.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline carries about 850,000 barrels of crude a day -- as much as 1.5 percent of global oil flows, said Parris, now at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

President Aliyev said after a visit from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Aug. 21 that the Georg