Jerome Wilson: Is Ukraine Next On The Russian Menu?

NEW YORK, NY -- What's next for the hungry bear? Having chewed up much of the nation of Georgia, are the Russians now looking for another morsel, as they seek a larger place at the table of nations? Without question the next tempting dish for Russia is Ukraine.

Columnist Jerome Wilson is a former New York State Senator who served for many years as counsel to the New York Newspaper Publishers Association.
However, unlike its “over the top” military actions in Georgia, Russia's advances toward Ukraine, so far, have been both subtle and enticing.

In the grand scheme of things Ukraine has always been more important to Russia than Georgia. Georgia was an irritant to the Russians, with a president who even made it more so. However, Georgia was never of major strategic importance.

Ukraine on the other hand is of enormous strategic value to Russia. The Ukrainian port city of Sebastopol is home to Russia's Black Sea naval fleet, where some 50 Russian ships and 80 aircraft are stationed. Also, rather embarrassingly, Russia has been forced to rent the space for its Black Sea naval base from Ukraine. Certainly, it is always nicer to be your own landlord.

Also, whereas Georgia was an easy-to-conquer nation of five million, Ukraine has a population of 47 million. To humble a nation of this size would clearly fit nicely into the restorative Soviet dreams of Russia's true leader, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Putin has not been idle. Consistent with Russia's new velvet glove offensive, he recently held a cordial meeting in Moscow with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. This in turn was followed by a late night chat with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

The fiery Tymoshenko is an important person for Russia to entertain and to woo. She was the co-leader, with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, of Ukraine's historic “Orange Revolution” in 2004. As the world watched, this event dramatically replaced a Russian-leaning government with a Western-style democracy.

Tymoshenko and Yushchenko now, however, are bitter enemies. The split between the two became evident when the prime minister declined to accompany the president to Georgia while the war was raging. Rather she stayed home, calling simply for a cessation to the hostilities.

Also, whereas President Yushchenko has been strident in calling for Ukraine to become a member of NATO, Prime Minister Tymoshenko has been far more muted in favoring such a step. Her position reflects a recent poll, reported in the UK Times, that found that Ukrainians by a margin of three to one did not wish to join the military alliance. On the other hand Ukrainians do want to join the European Union to take advantage of the benefits that this 27-nation trade alliance could provide.

Greatly acerbating the split between the two leaders, in September Prime Minister Tymoshenko successfully sponsored a measure in the Ukrainian parliament that diluted the powers of Yushchenko's presidency. She pulled this off by enlisting the support of the parliamentary group that represents the Russian speakers in the country. This pro-Moscow group is one of the three major voting blocs in the parliament. The other two are those members loyal to the president and those loyal to the prime minister.

The president's reaction to the prime minister's disloyalty was to call for a snap election to create a new parliament, as early as Dec. 7. A new election would mean the third general election in Ukraine in three years and would be an expensive proposition as well.

In response, the prime minister went to court and won a judgment that the president's call for new elections was illegal. However, before the court's decision could become effective, President Yushshenko fired the judge and then claimed that the decision was invalid.

The upshot of this maneuvering, which sounds more like a skit on “Comedy Central” than the actions of a government of close to 50 million people, is that the lower court's judgment, canceling the election, is now on appeal to a higher court. Until the higher court decides the question, election officials are refusing to begin preparations for another election.

Meanwhile, while all this is going on, Bloomberg News reported that the costs of protecting the Ukraine economy from default soared, after President Yushchenko's called for early elections. In fact, Ukraine has the highest risk of default among all Europe's emerging markets. “It's a panic,” said a Ukrainian fund manager, who manages more than a billion dollars of Ukrainian assets from the capital of Kiev.

As for Ukraine's political future, should Tymoshenko decide to run to replace Yushchenko as president, she again might need the votes of the bloc that represent the Russia speakers in the parliament. Should she accept support from this bloc, the ultimate question would be how many Moscow friendly actions would be required to bring the members of this bloc over to her side. How she answers this question could be critical to her nation's future as a truly independent nation.

Oh, yes, and on top of all this, the pirates off Somalia have yet to release, peacefully, the huge Ukrainian cargo ship that they captured in the Arabian Sea.

Source: Ithaca Journal