Ukraine Considers NATO Bid, Russian Objections

WASHINGTON, DC -- January turned out to be an eventful month for Ukraine, as the country became embroiled in a heated debate about its prospects for joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Communist anti-NATO propaganda. Sign reads 'NATO NO'.
While NATO has its supporters and critics in Ukrainian society, partisan divisions in the Ukrainian government have made political dialogue between these groups especially difficult. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko represents the fiercely pro-Western forces which push for the country's speedy admission to NATO.

The national parliament, Verkhovna Rada, is dominated by the Party of Regions and the Communist Party, which advocate for strengthening Ukraine's economic and political ties with neighboring Russia.

NATO's Ally or Opponent?

Ukraine has a long history of cooperation with NATO. In 1994, it was the first former Soviet republic to join the organization's Partnership for Peace program, the goal of which is to combat security threats and maintain peace in NATO member countries.

Ukraine's peacekeeping forces operated with NATO troops in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Afghanistan, and Iraq. In 2007, two Ukrainian ships also took part in NATO's anti-terrorist maritime operations in the Mediterranean Sea.

Under NATO's guidance, Ukraine is carrying out a host of comprehensive reforms to downsize and increase the mobility of its military forces, enhance civil society's control over defense and security structures, and safely destroy surplus land mines and munitions.

Ukraine's geographic location makes it particularly attractive to NATO, as U.S. Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, noted at a recent press conference in Ukrainian capital, Kiev.

"The energy lines that lead through Ukraine to other nations make Ukraine a vital player in the security of many European nations. . . . In foreign policy terms, it's important that other nations link up in pipelines that are going to convey oil and natural gas through . . . Ukraine for energy security in this country as well as . . . in Europe," Lugar said.

Last month, Lugar visited resource-rich Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan to discuss these countries' role in ensuring global energy security.

Despite Ukraine's activism in NATO, some analysts question the country's true motives. They say that Ukrainian leaders aspire to join the bloc not because they seek its military protection but because they hope that NATO will open the door to the European Union (EU).

While this arrangement has worked for other Eastern European countries recently admitted to both institutions, it may prove problematic in Ukraine. Common Ukrainians are largely opposed to NATO, which may seem paradoxical given Ukraine's markedly large involvement in NATO's activities over the past decade.

At the same time, Ukrainians are eager to enter the EU, where a uniform legal framework enables unrestricted movement of goods, services, capital, and people within EU borders. Based on current estimates, however, Ukraine is not likely to join the EU until 2017, as its economy must first meet the union's stringent criteria.

Domestic Resistance

Disagreements over NATO membership came to a head in mid-January after President Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and Verkhovna Rada Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk signed a joint appeal to NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.

In it, they asked for Ukraine's admittance to the NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP), which helps aspiring members align their economy, governance, legislation, defense, and security structures with NATO requirements.

While inclusion in the MAP does not guarantee membership in the alliance, the precedents set by other Eastern European nations are encouraging. Former MAP participants Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia were granted full membership in the 26-member NATO bloc in 2004.

Ukraine's MAP application is slated for review at the forthcoming NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania, in early April 2008.

In the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's Party of Regions and Communist Party leveled harsh criticism against Yushchenko, Tymoshenko and, particularly, Yatsenyuk for addressing NATO without consulting the parliament first.

They demanded that a nationwide referendum be held to gauge public opinion about NATO membership. Earlier opinion polls showed that the majority of Ukrainians do not favor Ukraine's accession to NATO, ostensibly out of fear that it might jeopardize cross-border employment and trade with Russia.

Russian authorities have expressed their clear displeasure with Ukraine's courting of NATO and promised to take "adequate measures" in response.

Russia's Reaction

Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Viktor Chernomyrdin has said Russia would reconsider its relations with Ukraine if the latter joined NATO. "Our relations [with Ukraine] are too close, specifically in the field of sensitive technologies and political affairs, for us to take lightly the fact that Ukraine will become a member of NATO," Chernomyrdin said in a Jan. 14 interview with the Ukrainian daily Ukrainskaya Pravda.

Moscow recognizes Ukraine's sovereign right to join alliances of its choice but thinks it is "very important" for Ukraine to consider Russian interests in this matter, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a Jan. 23 Moscow press conference.

Russian diplomats have not provided any details on the potential repercussions of Ukraine's NATO entry for Ukraine-Russia relations. However, analysts believe that Russia may introduce a visa regime with Ukraine and discontinue cooperation in the aerospace industry, where Ukraine depends on spare parts supplied by its eastern neighbor.

Ukraine also transports Russian natural gas to Europe while purchasing some of it for domestic use at preferential rates.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded promptly to the Chernomyrdin and Lavrov remarks with a series of conciliatory statements intended to initiate a dialogue and assuage Russia's suspicions.

Its Jan. 24 press release said Ukraine "does not share Russia's misgivings about NATO's enlargement possibly triggering grave military-political shifts which will inevitably reflect on the interests of the Russian Federation."

At a Jan. 24 press conference in Kiev, Viktor Nedopas, the ministry official in charge of relations with NATO, said Russia should explain exactly how Ukraine's membership in NATO may pose a threat to Russia.

Speaking to the press in Davos, Switzerland, where he attended the World Economic Forum late last month, President Yushchenko said that "Russia is Ukraine's historic and strategic partner," and that Ukraine "will refrain from actions that might provoke a conflict situation with Russia."

Educating Ukrainians about NATO

NATO members make admission decisions based on consensus. A national referendum in Ukraine, if it takes place, will certainly be a decisive factor in their verdict.

Speaking to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty last summer, NATO Secretary General Jaap De Hoop Scheffer said that being critical of NATO is the "legitimate right" of Ukrainians and that the only way to change their opinion about the alliance is not to "sell NATO" but to "explain what NATO is."

Alarmed by the alliance's low popularity in the country, NATO officials plan to launch a public awareness campaign. "Many people in Ukraine still lack information regarding the role, activities, and the goals of the Alliance, and outdated Cold War stereotypes remain strong in the minds of some. . . . Encouraging people to take a fresh look at the Alliance would allow them to discover how NATO has transformed itself since the end of the Cold War, developing new partnerships throughout the Euro-Atlantic area to meet new security challenges, including strengthened relations with Russia," the NATO Web site states.

It remains to be seen whether Ukraine's pro-Western leaders and NATO's own efforts at wooing Ukraine can overcome the opposition of Russia and much of the Ukrainian populace.

Source: World Politics Review