Yanukovych May Win Most Votes In Ukraine, Lose Power

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych is favored to win the most votes in today's parliamentary election. That may not be enough to save his job.

Ukraine's Prime Minister and the leader of pro-Russian Regions Party, Viktor Yanukovich, waves as he arrives to vote in a polling station in Kiev.
His two main opponents, President Viktor Yushchenko and former premier Yulia Timoshenko, have renewed their alliance that denied Yanukovych the presidency in 2004 during the ``Orange Revolution'' and fell apart less than a year later.

Yanukovych's Party of the Regions ranked first in the most recent opinion poll ahead of Timoshenko's bloc and Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party.

The prime minister may struggle to build a coalition with his Communist Party allies after Timoshenko and Our Ukraine agreed to try to form an administration led by Timoshenko.

The result ``will not give an answer to who will control the parliament'' at once, said Paul D'Anieri, professor of political science and associate dean of the University of Kansas, in a telephone interview. ``Timoshenko and Yushchenko are on the track of Yanukovych and this gives them good chances to form the government.''

Voting will end at 10 p.m., with first results from exit polls due soon after and the final result tomorrow. At 4 p.m., turnout was 43 percent, according to the Central Election Commission in Kiev.

More than 50 percent of the 37 million registered voters must cast their ballots for the elections to be valid and a party must win more than 3 percent of the vote to enter the parliament.

Orange Renewal

Yushchenko's accord with Timoshenko restores the alliance that swept to power in the 2004 Orange Revolution, which was triggered by a rigged presidential election in which Yanukovych, backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, claimed victory.

The Orange allies, who aim to move closer to the European Union and NATO, fell out during Timoshenko's premiership, allowing Yanukovych to win elections last year and become prime minister.

Our Ukraine was third in the last opinion poll before the elections, with the backing of 13.1 percent of voters, according to a Sept. 1-10 survey of 2,004 voters by the Kiev-based Razumkov Center for Economic and Political Studies. Timoshenko's bloc had 23.5 percent support and Regions 33.9 percent.

Timoshenko and Yushchenko were shown embracing on television on Sept. 27, signaling their accord was restored. The reconstituted Orange bloc may gain enough seats to form a government because of rising support for Timoshenko, analysts said.

To stay in power, Yanukovych's party may have to continue its links with the Communist Party, which is supported by 5 percent of voters, according to the poll. Other smaller parties may garner enough seats to hold the balance of power. They haven't said which coalition they'll support.

OSCE Presence

``I am sure that we will win and form a coalition,'' Yanukovych said today, according to a statement on his Web site. ``The results of the elections will be not cheated and we will not have early elections in Ukraine in future.''

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the main human rights watchdog, has deployed 710 election monitors across the country, said Urdur Gunnarsdottir, spokeswoman for the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. The OSCE has expressed concern about possible irregularities, she said.

``There has been a lot of discussion and complaints about voter lists,'' said Gunnarsdottir, adding that the complaints include suggestions lists are inaccurate and people living abroad may be registered to vote.

Casting Ballot

After casting his ballot this morning, Yushchenko said in comments broadcast on TV that ``today's elections will be democratic, no one will dare to falsify them. The people's choice will bring stability and economic prosperity to the country. Please, come and vote.''

Kiev's main Independence Square, where hundreds of thousands of Yushchenko supporters gathered to play out the revolution three years ago, was quiet today and filled only with families enjoying the sunshine.

There was no sign of an extra police presence or followers of any of the main parties in the city center.

Source: Bloomberg

Ukraine Votes To End Standoff

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainians began voting Sunday in an early parliamentary election meant to bring an end to a months-long political standoff between the nation's two feuding leaders.

Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko and his wife Kateryna arrive at a Kiev polling station to vote.
President Viktor Yushchenko's party appeared set for a dismal showing, with polls predicting the bloc led by rival Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych would get the largest share of votes.

But Yushchenko is pinning his hopes on a last-minute alliance with former Premier Yulia Tymoshenko -- a partnership that could give their parties control of parliament if together they get more votes than Yanukovych's bloc.

Forging a coalition with Tymoshenko, however, could mean weeks of negotiation and Yanukovych has signaled that he would not give up power easily.

Polls predict Yanukovych's Party of Regions will receive the most votes, with Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko in second place. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine-People's Self-defense, hampered by voter disappointment with his failure to fulfill reformist promises that brought him to power in 2005, is expected to wind up third. Ukraine has 37.5 million registered voters. Watch polls open in Ukraine

Yanukovych, an earthy 57-year-old former metal worker, has undergone a dramatic transformation since his humiliating defeat in the 2004 presidential race, when Ukrainians took to the streets in massive protests against election fraud dubbed the Orange Revolution, paving the way for Yushchenko's victory in a court-ordered rerun.

But Yanukovych made a stunning comeback in the March 2006 parliamentary elections when his party won the most votes, propelling him back into premiership. He sought to change his image, casting himself as a democrat and preaching compromise and stability.

Yanukovych, who draws his support from Ukraine's Russian-speaking east and south, fiercely resisted Yushchenko's April decision to dissolve parliament and call new elections after the president accused him of seeking to usurp power. Yanukovych grudgingly agreed to the Sunday vote, but has hinted he would accept only one outcome: his victory.

He has accused Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's parties of preparing widespread falsifications, and warned he could organize protests similar to those during the Orange Revolution. His supporters warned they would erect a giant stage and tent camp on the same central Kiev square that was the epicenter of the protests three years ago.

Raisa Bohatyryova, a leading member of Yanukovych's party, said Friday that if it judges the vote fraudulent, Ukraine could end up with dueling parliaments and Cabinets and a campaign for early presidential elections.

Yushchenko, 53, has struggled with voter disillusionment and a loss of support among many voters now backing Tymoshenko, the telegenic Orange Revolution heroine known here simply as Yulia.

He and the 46-year-old Tymoshenko parted ways after he fired her from a seven-month stint as prime minister in 2005. Their two parties lost a chance to form a coalition following last year's parliamentary elections, sowing even further disillusionment among liberal voters.

While Yushchenko has been weakened by Yanukovych, Tymoshenko has emerged as a fiery opposition crusader and has been able to woo many of his supporters.

"She's a woman, she's a mother -- just like Ukraine," Tamara Novikova, a 65-year-old retired music teacher said at a Kiev polling station after casting her ballot for Tymoshenko's bloc. "And, most importantly, men are afraid of her."

"She always gets her point across. She's always true to herself -- today she's the same as two or three years ago," said another enthusiastic Tymoshenko supporter, Pyotr Shekhvits, a 53-year-old medical worker.

In a last-minute move to consolidate the Orange camp, Yushchenko met with Tymoshenko earlier this week, kissing her hand and vowing that their parties would form a coalition.

Yushchenko made the same pledge in a televised speech to the nation late Saturday.

"I believe in the unity and the victory of the Ukrainian democracy," Yushchenko said. "The issue is very simple: either you will vote for changes or your vote will be claimed by the past, by those who are trying to split us."

Tymoshenko, who has long said that reuniting the Orange team was the only chance at implementing reforms and integrating with the West, hailed Yushchenko's move.

Source: CNN

Orange Revolution's Captains Battle Again In Ukraine Election

KIEV, Ukraine — With politicized concerts, fervent street rallies, a barrage of political advertising and allegations of rigged voter lists, the two sides that faced off in Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" are at it again.

Today's elections are maily a faceoff between Viktor Yanukovich and Yulia Tymoshenko.
Today's parliamentary elections are largely a faceoff between Yulia Tymoshenko, the most fiery leader of the 2004 protests, and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, the object of the protesters' wrath. Offering contrasting styles and foreign-policy goals, they are the main rivals to head the next government of this former Soviet state.

"I want us to go toward Europe rather than Russia," said Antonina Ledeneva, a businesswoman volunteering in Tymoshenko's campaign. "We don't want to have the same 'democracy' as [President Vladimir] Putin has in Russia now."

If this all conjures up a feeling of déjà vu, flash back to 2004. Tymoshenko was the key ally of Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-Western candidate who nearly died of dioxin poisoning in a plot that some have suggested had ties to Moscow. He went on to win the presidency when the Orange Revolution forced the rerun of rigged elections.

Yanukovich, 57, was the humiliated loser of that bitter race. Perceived then as the Moscow-backed candidate, he since has remade his image, looking and acting more like a Western European politician and less like a stuffy Soviet-era bureaucrat. He even mounted a comeback, becoming prime minister after his party did well in a parliamentary election last year.

Yanukovich's power base is the country's largely Russian-speaking eastern and southern regions. He still insists that closer ties with the West should not come at the expense of warm relations with Moscow, but his campaign emphasizes the claim that he is the more competent manager.

Tymoshenko, 46, has positioned herself as a fighter against corruption and an advocate of close ties with the West. She emphasizes her Ukrainian character by wearing her hair braided and wound around her head in a traditional peasant style.

The battle lines are essentially the same as in 2004. The Orange team, named after Yushchenko's campaign color in his presidential race, is represented by the Tymoshenko bloc and the Our Ukraine People's Self-Defense bloc. The latter group is closely linked to President Yushchenko. Against them stand Yanukovich's Party of Regions and the Communists.

Polls show the two sides in a virtual dead heat.

If Tymoshenko comes out on top, she could try to move this nation of 47 million much more rapidly toward European integration and close ties with the United States.

If Yanukovich prevails, Ukraine would remain more nearly balanced between East and West, although many observers predict that in the long run, the country inevitably will grow closer to the European Union.

Both sides have accused the other of planning to cheat in the election, largely through rigged voter lists said to include hundreds of thousands of "dead souls" and by falsification of the vote count in their respective regional strongholds.

But here's where things veer from a replay of the 2004 race.

Yanukovich's Party of Regions, despite its record of trying to rig the presidential vote in 2004, has been particularly vocal in accusing the Orange camp of planning to cheat this time. That, in turn, has prompted fears in Tymoshenko's circle that the prime minister might refuse to accept a defeat.

Yanukovich has indicated that if he loses in what his side believes was an unfair contest, he will seek to imitate the 2004 upheaval by bringing his supporters into the streets to challenge the results. Party of Regions activists took control of Kiev's central Independence Square last week and appear intent on holding on there until the ballot-counting is complete.

"We see that the Orange team ... will not be able to win the elections by fair means. They see that they are losing, and are preparing to rig the elections. We have enough strength not to allow this," Yanukovich said in televised remarks Tuesday.

Such threats have met with a contemptuous response from the rival camp, which believes Yanukovich does not command the same depth of loyalty from his voters as Yushchenko and Tymoshenko enjoyed when they challenged the rigged 2004 balloting.

The other key post-election factor will be coalition-building. Tymoshenko would be considered the strong favorite if the two Orange blocs win a majority of seats, but even then it would not be a sure thing.

That's because post-election talks between Tymoshenko's bloc and her allies, the Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense bloc, conceivably could break down.

After the Orange Revolution, Tymoshenko served for seven months as prime minister, but Yushchenko dismissed her after they had a falling out. They patched up their alliance again earlier this year.

Observers do not rule out the possibility that voting results and subsequent negotiations could develop in such a way that the Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense bloc, associated with Yushchenko, aligns with Yanukovich's Party of Regions.

Advocates of such a deal say it would ensure stability, lead to a more technocratic government and unite the country's disparate regions.

Critics say it would mark a betrayal by Yushchenko of the Orange Revolution itself.

Source: Los Angeles Times

Ukraine Votes In Tense Contest To End Turmoil

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainians voted Sunday in a snap parliamentary election meant to end months of political chaos, with pro-Western forces hoping to push their Russian-backed rival from power.

Yulia Tymoshenko offering a prayer for Ukrainian elections.
Polling stations across the former Soviet republic of 47 million people, which is sandwiched between Russia and the European Union, opened at 7:00 am (0400 GMT) and were due to close at 10:00 pm (1900 GMT).

On the eve of the election, Western-leaning President Viktor Yushchenko appealed for voters to end "chaos" and back reforms promised during the 2004 pro-democracy "Orange Revolution."

The election to the single-chamber parliament, the Rada, was called to resolve a power struggle between Yushchenko and his prime minister, Viktor Yanukovych, who is closer to Ukraine's former ruler Moscow.

None of the leading three parties was expected to win an outright majority, meaning coalition talks were inevitable.

Yushchenko's Our Ukraine-People's Self Defence party is teaming up with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, headed by glamorous former prime minister Tymoshenko, another key leader in the "Orange Revolution."

They hope to win enough combined votes to form a new government, with Tymoshenko replacing Yanukovych as premier.

However, polls predict Yanukovych's Regions Party will come a close second to the combined "Orange" parties. The prime minister may still be able to form a majority coalition if any of the 17 smaller parties manage to win seats.

Washington, the European Union and an increasingly assertive Kremlin are watching closely for political shifts in the former Soviet republic, which has expressed interest in joining both the European Union and NATO.

The country straddles key Russian gas export routes to energy-hungry EU clients.

It is also a testing ground for Western-style economic and political reforms in the former Soviet Union, where many countries are now headed by authoritarian governments.

Yushchenko said in his address Saturday that "the choice, in my view, is very simple: either you vote for change in your life, or for the past and those who divide us."

In the 2004 "Orange Revolution," huge popular protests forced Yanukovych to agree to a rerun of a flawed presidential election in which he had defeated Yushchenko.

Yanukovych was beaten in the rerun, but returned as premier after his party won a parliamentary majority in March 2006 elections.

The upheaval of the "Orange Revolution" sent shockwaves through Russia's political establishment, which had closely backed Yanukovych.

Moscow has accused Western governments of fomenting revolutions in its backyard, but Washington and other Western capitals say they are helping post-Soviet societies develop democracy.

Since then, many Ukrainians have become turned off by seemingly endless political bickering. There are fears of further street demonstrations and court battles if Sunday's election prompts complaints of vote rigging.

A pre-election report by the European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations expressed concerns over voter registration and voting lists which "might lead to cases of multiple voting and ballot stuffing."

The report also criticised increased "abuse" of state resources in favour of certain parties.

Polls show 68 percent of voters will cast ballots. Political passions remain high in parts of the country, which is divided into the pro-Moscow, Russian-speaking east and south, and the more nationalist, Ukrainian-speaking west.

Source: AFP

Ukraine's New Orange Alliance May Give Timoshenko Election Edge

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's Orange Revolution allies, Yulia Timoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko, said their renewed alliance after a two-year split will bring them victory in tomorrow's parliamentary elections.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko (L) welcomes opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko.
Timoshenko, the president's first prime minister when he took office in 2005, will regain her post, Yuriy Lutsenko, the leader of Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party, told several thousand supporters during an outdoor rally in the capital Kiev last night.

``We have signed an agreement with Timoshenko's bloc,'' said Lutsenko. ``We will form the cabinet the day after we know the results of the vote.''

Yushchenko's accord with Timoshenko restores the alliance swept to power in the 2004 Orange Revolution, which was triggered by rigged presidential elections. The two, who aim to move closer to the European Union and NATO, fell out during Timoshenko's premiership, allowing Viktor Yanukovych, who seeks stronger ties with Russia, to win elections last year and become prime minister.

``Ukrainians, please cheer up,'' said Yushchenko yesterday on Ukrainian TV. ``Ukraine has a great chance on Sept. 30 and it must use it. There is no alternative to democracy in the country.''

The president's Our Ukraine party was third in the last opinion poll before the elections, with the backing of 13.1 percent of voters, according to a Sept. 1-10 survey of 2,004 voters by the Kiev-based Razumkov Center for Economic and Political Studies. Timoshenko had 23.5 percent support and Yanukovych 33.9 percent.

Timoshenko and Yushchenko were shown embracing on television on Sept. 27, signaling their pact was restored. The reconstituted Orange bloc may gain enough seats to form a government because of rising support for Timoshenko, analysts said.

Orange Campaign

``Yushchenko's party mainly has support in western Ukraine, while central Ukraine belongs to Yulia,'' said Walter Zarycky, executive director at the Center for U.S.-Ukrainian relations in New York, in a telephone interview. ``Timoshenko also campaigns heavily in eastern and southern Ukraine, the core of Yanukovych's support and she can do really well there.''

To stay in power, Yanukovych's Regions of Ukraine party may have to continue its links with the Communist Party, which is supported by 5 percent of voters, according to the poll. Other smaller parties may garner enough seats to hold the balance of power. They haven't said which coalition they'll support.

Yanukovych's final rally last night took place in the central Kiev square that had been dominated by Orange flags three years ago. After thousands of supporters watched a concert with Ukrainian pop stars, the premier asked voters to elect his party, ``which respects both Ukrainian speakers and Russian speakers.''

His party was the only one that can ``bring stability to Ukraine and make our country a nice and reliable neighbor of Russia,'' he said.

Source: Bloomberg

Canadian Election Observers In Ukraine Face Harassment, Threats

TORONTO, Canada -- A group of Canadians in Ukraine to observe this weekend's national elections were harassed and threatened by local officials on Friday after questioning apparent irregularities in voting procedures.

Canadian Liberal leadership candidate Gerard Kennedy
Gerard Kennedy said his group of 18 observers was shouted at, threatened with arrest and denounced as provocateurs on local television by party officials at an election centre in Mariupol, a regional industrial centre in southeast Ukraine.

The former Ontario education minister and Liberal leadership candidate said officials who checked the observers' credentials also demanded to see their passports, which they seized. The documents were returned after 15-20 minutes.

Regional election centres are responsible for producing voters lists and distributing ballots to polling places.

The dispute erupted when election officials - who are party functionaries - refused to accept the Canadian observers' complaint that the centre's voters list contained 13,000 duplicate names and that the centre was distributing 30 per cent more ballots than needed.

"We did find some problems" with preparations for Sunday's vote, Kennedy said in a telephone interview. "We found what we think is evidence of potential fraud, and we suffered some degree of intimidation in our observer duties, we think as a result."

At one point, Kennedy said, two busloads of police arrived at the centre and several armed officers entered, in contravention of election rules.

A Ukrainian election expert accompanying the observer group was charged with interfering in an election, but not detained.

"We were followed, and people came in to intimidate us from talking to people at the polls and obtain the information," Kennedy said. "At one point local television showed up and we were denounced on TV."

Finally, Kennedy said, cooler heads prevailed and the group was permitted to do its work.

"The other parties decided that they wanted to work with the nice people from Canada, so we were able to head off any more reckless kind of folks."

But Kennedy noted that the irregularities the group saw raised concern that "there's some very severe falsification likely to occur in Mariupol on Sunday unless other interventions take place, and that's not for us to do."

Kennedy said his group had heard of problems being reported from other regions, including extra ballots being issued.

"This is the most extreme of what we saw, and at the same time there were numerous other stations that we visited that were in good working order," he said.

There are about 3,000 international observers monitoring Ukraine's hotly contested election, which pits prime minister Viktor Yanukovich's Party of Regions against President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine and a bloc led by former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

None of the parties is expected to win a majority, which has led to intense negotiations for the formation of a governing coalition in Parliament.

Source: The Canadian Press

Ukraine Braces For Election Showdown

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's main parties staged final rallies on Friday ahead of parliamentary elections Sunday pitting the victors of the "Orange Revolution" in a tight race against their pro-Russian rivals.

People attend a rally of President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine Party
The streets of central Kiev filled with the orange flags of supporters of Western-leaning President Viktor Yushchenko and his ally Yulia Tymoshenko, as well as the banners of their bitter rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

About 1,000 people attended a rally of Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party, releasing hundreds of orange balloons into sunny autumn skies on the last day of campaigning.

A couple of hundred metres (yards) away on Independence Square spread a sea of blue flags for Yanukovych's Regions Party, while the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc was due to gather at another public square.

Sunday's election to the single-chamber Rada is a snap poll meant to end a power struggle between Yushchenko and Yanukovych that has paralysed politics in the ex-Soviet republic of 47 million people.

However, no party is expected to gain a clear majority, meaning that all sides will have to enter into fresh coalition talks to try to form a government.

Yushchenko currently shares power with Yanukovych, a tortuous alliance that has led to endless wrangling and constitutional paralysis.

But a good showing by Tymoshenko's party could open the way to her becoming the new premier and resurrecting the team that led the 2004 pro-democracy Orange Revolution, before splitting up in acrimony.

"The president and I agreed that we must set up a coalition the day after the official results of the election are announced," she told journalists Friday.

Yanukovych, who was defeated in his presidential bid against Yushchenko during the Orange Revolution has proved a tough politician. He has backing from powerful industrial groups in the east of Ukraine and mounted a slick, well-funded campaign.

"We have done enough work to defend people's votes," he said Friday in his power base of Donetsk, news agency Interfax-Ukraine reported.

Campaigning has focused on day-to-day issues such as pensions and corruption, a far cry from the ideological passions of the Orange Revolution.

But Washington, the European Union and an increasingly assertive Kremlin are also watching closely for political shifts in the ex-Soviet republic, which is trying for both EU and NATO membership.

The country straddles key Russian gas export routes to energy-hungry EU clients.

Volodimir Fesenko, from the Penta analytical centre, warned that resurrecting the Orange coalition and forcing Yanukovych into opposition could trigger "a chilling of relations with Russia."

Russia's ambassador to Ukraine, Viktor Chernomyrdin, fuelled those fears by saying this week that the make-up of the next government will influence what price Russia demands for its natural gas, Kommersant newspaper reported.

Many Ukrainians are turned off by seemingly endless political bickering and there are fears of further street demonstrations and court battles should Sunday's election prompt complaints of vote-rigging.

A report on Friday by the European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations expressed concerns over voter registration and voting lists which "might lead to cases of multiple voting and ballot stuffing."

The report also criticised increased "abuse" of state resources in favour of certain parties.

Polls show 68 percent of voters will take part and passions remain high in parts of the country, which is divided into the pro-Moscow, Russian-speaking east and south, and the more nationalist, Ukrainian-speaking west.

Vera Gerasynenko, 56, who was attending the pro-Yushchenko rally with her daughter Maria, 21, said the choice on Sunday was between Ukraine's entry into Europe and being swallowed by giant neighbour Russia.

"Russia needs Ukraine as their colony. They're an empire," she said, describing Yanukovych as "a criminal, a sick man."

Just down the road, Mikhail Sukharkov, 60, claimed "the Orange side is finished," as he handed out Regions Party fliers.

"Tymoshenko has the character of a Nazi. Ukraine will turn into a second Yugoslavia if she takes power," he said.

Source: AFP

Ukraine's Sevastopol Braces For Exit Of Russian Fleet

SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine -- For more than 200 years, Russia's Black Sea fleet has set sail from the Crimean port of Sevastopol to battle the motherland's adversaries -- Turkish, British, French and German.

Sight gunner of a Russian Black Sea Fleet warship
There's just one problem: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Sevastopol has been a part of an independent Ukraine whose president, Viktor Yushchenko, wants to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The issue is central to parliamentary elections on Sept. 30.

The 2017 expiration of the fleet's lease on its Sevastopol base has implications for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been reasserting his nation's military might.

While Russia encourages support for Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who is seeking closer ties with Moscow, it is also planning for a new warm-water home for the pride of its navy at Novorossiisk, an oil terminal.

Politicians aren't the only ones grappling with the reverberations. So are local residents. ``It would definitely be a tragedy'' if the fleet leaves, said Vladimir Klyuyev, a retired naval captain who runs the Black Sea Fleet's museum in Sevastopol. ``People have spent their whole lives here in the service of the motherland.'' Russia's national pride will suffer if the fleet goes, he said.

``We're Russians, the fleet's Russian, of course we feel badly,'' said Irina Vaskovskaya, who works at the museum and whose father served in naval bases across Russia before settling in Sevastopol.

Buffer Zone

Throughout the communist years, the Black Sea was a buffer between NATO and the Soviet-dominated Warsaw Pact. The politics of the countries bordering the sea have been transformed since the Soviet Union broke up in 1991.

Romania and Bulgaria are members of NATO and the European Union; Georgia wants to join both; Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, is a candidate for EU membership.

With Ukraine and its Black Sea coast of 1,400 kilometers (875 miles) possibly off-limits too, Russia might be relegated to its own 400-kilometer coastline in a sea it once dominated.

The Russian presence is ``fundamental both to security and economic stability,'' said Andrei Krylov, the Russian Defense Ministry's spokesman for the Black Sea Fleet. There are about 5,000 Russian naval personnel in the port and Russia pays Ukraine $98 million a year in rent. ``Twenty percent of Sevastopol's budget comes from the fleet,'' he said.

Tourist Draw

The fleet is a tourist attraction: Owners of small boats vie to persuade visitors to cruise around the port, where more than 20 naval vessels including destroyers, hospital ships and submarines were moored on a recent visit.

A different bay houses the Ukrainian navy, which that day was hosting a U.S. vessel. NATO's presence in the Russian fleet's home port isn't a source of tension, said NATO spokesman James Appathurai. ``We cooperate just as well with the Russian navy as with the Ukrainian one,'' he said by telephone.

The fleet figures in the Ukrainian campaign. Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko, loyal to Yushchenko, said Sept. 18 that the constitution bans foreign forces on Ukrainian territory. ``The exception is only for the Russian fleet, but only until 2017,'' he said.

Pro-Yanukovych Transport Minister Mykola Rudkovsky countered on Sept. 17 that ``if we have a new president after the 2009 elections, it will be possible to prolong the agreement.''

The fleet's military effectiveness won't be much affected by a move, said Jonathan Eyal, director of International Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London. ``The strength of the Russian navy should not be compromised,'' he said.

Military Clout

The same may not be true for issues of Russian prestige and influence. Putin, seeking to show Russia's economic success is matched by political and military clout, on Aug. 17 ordered the resumption of regular patrols by strategic bombers, a practice halted in 1992.

Russia this month also tested what it called the world's most powerful air-delivered vacuum bomb. The weapon is four times more powerful than the Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb tested by the U.S. military and known as the ``Mother of All Bombs,'' according to a report by Russian state broadcaster Perviy Kanal. This prompted the Russian designers to call their device ``the Father of All Bombs,'' it said.

Russia's commitment to the Black Sea is evident at the ancient, nearby harbor of Balaklava. Here, in 1957, the Soviet Union built an underground terminal, carved into rock and all but invisible from outside, as the main base for the fleet's submarines.

Secret Project

A 600-meter long tunnel runs from inside the harbor, allowing submarines to sail straight in for maintenance and repairs. Seven submarines could be accommodated there. So secret was the project, Balaklava disappeared from official Soviet maps.

``In the case of a nuclear attack, the base could stand a direct hit by a nuclear bomb,'' reads a guide to the site. It's now the Balaklava Naval Museum Complex, for tourists who want to examine gigantic steel doors and bulkheads designed to protect against fallout.

If tourism is all that remains of the fleet's presence, neither the port nor the nation where it's located will be better off, museum director Klyuyev said.

``Practically all inhabitants of Sevastopol, and a very big proportion of Ukrainians, hope common sense will prevail,'' he said.

Source: Bloomberg

Vote Fraud Fears Spread Ahead Of Poll

KIEV, Ukraine -- With so much at stake in terms of economic patronage and executive privilege, Ukraine’s snap elections were expected to be fierce. The fact that voters have more of the same to choose from has meant that the race will be close as well.


And tensions seem to be reaching a boiling point with recently-observed virtual acknowledgements of defeat by top contenders crying fraud before the votes have even been counted.

The Regions Party of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, represented by the color blue, has sent out signals as recently as this month that they might drop out of the race if they feel it’s unfair.

More recently, the Regions have predicted massive falsification by their opponents and are gearing up for large street-side protests to challenge what they claim will be an attempt to rob them of their likely victory in the decisive vote.

Orange President Viktor Yushchenko, represented by the Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense Bloc, struck back in the same vein from the campaign trail on Sept. 25.

“Why does Yanukovych speak of falsification at each of his rallies? The reason is that he is planning falsification. It will happen. What I’m talking about is how do we deal with this problem,” he said in Sumy Region.

But the president’s response, a warning to his nemesis from Orange Revolution days, was equally fatalistic.

“I’d like to tell Yanukovych personally and other colleagues as well that the government is personally responsible for holding a free, fair and democratic election,” Yushchenko said.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), which is controlled by Yushchenko, backed the president’s claims with a report that an election council in the eastern city of Kharkiv had registered close to 100,000 non-existent persons on voter rolls.

The SBU has also in recent days launched probes into election fraud attempts in other eastern cities where Regions support is high, including Mariupol.

The Regions’ propaganda machine has not been idle. The industrialist-backed party has in recent days systematically disseminated warnings that the vote would be rigged against their favor in a would-be effort to legitimize their claim to victory, and trigger massive protests if votes don’t tally to their advantage.

“For the entire campaign, the Orange have tried to mislead the people. Truth to them is not important. Winning at any cost is all that matters,” reads a Regions party statement dated Sept. 25.

Also from the campaign trail, Yanukovych accused his opponents of buying votes. “We have information that they are paying for every vote,” he said in Poltava Region.

And like the president, Yanukovych has offered voters an additional interpretation of the alleged cheating.

“We see that the Orange team ... aren’t winning and they feel it. Their ratings are falling everywhere. They see that they are losing and therefore preparing falsifications,” he said on Poltava TV.

Recent polls suggest both the Orange and Blue camps are in a dead heat race where a single percentage point could claim victory. Yanukovych’s party could garner anywhere from 30-38 percent support; 10-14 percent of voter support could go to Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense, with 20-28 percent going to opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko.

The Communists and a few fringe parties could pass the 3 percent barrier, inheriting a kingmaker position in coalition talks. Other smaller parties could be key in stripping away valuable percentage points.

Despite Ukraine’s longstanding reputation as a country of dirty politics, corrupt officialdom and a feeble court system, last year’s parliamentary poll was dubbed the fairest ever.

This year, however, Yushchenko and Yanukovych are equally well-placed to influence events from a position of administrative power.

The ambitious opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko is also fighting hard, but none of the leaders has full control of the situation and there is no referee.

This leaves nobody in charge in a dangerous tug of war for power. With so much at stake, the competing sides seem, once again as in Orange Revolution days, eager to take extreme measures to claim victory.

To make the choice more complicated for voters, Yanukovych’s team has learned to parrot the political program of the Orange parties.

Accused of Soviet-style authoritarianism and mass fraud during the 2004 presidential race, the premier has undergone an image makeover that attempts to steal the democratic wind from his opponents’ sails.

Yanukovych has also campaigned vigorously beyond his home territory in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, where Tymoshenko continues to make some headway.

But the real battle appears to be centered on Kyiv, where the votes will be counted. The capital is where Yanukovych had his fraud-marred presidential victory overturned by the country’s Supreme Court.

This time around, the premier has taken precautions, gathering his supporters on Maidan to protest against rigged voting before it happens.

“We have the power to prevent this,” he said, “therefore, we will watch carefully and react if necessary,” Yanukovych told voters in Poltava.

Oles Dony, a Kyiv-based political analyst who is on the party list for Yushchenko’s bloc, said falsification in the Sept. 30 vote is likely by all sides, and not necessarily on orders from above.

“Election officials in small towns don’t need to be prodded to produce favorable results for their mentors in Kyiv,” he said.

Yury Yakymenko, a political analyst at Kyiv’s Razumkov Center, said all the hoopla about falsification is partly just campaign rhetoric that Ukrainians have become accustomed to.

But, he added, it also serves as “psychological preparation of the public to set the stage for the mobilization of protesters in the event of an election defeat.”

According to Yakymenko, the accusations of cheating from both sides indicate that coalition horse trading and backroom deals are likely to stretch on for a long time after election day, yielding the same kind of instability that caused President Yushchenko to call the snap elections last spring in the first place.

Source: Kyiv Post

Beautiful But Tough: Yulia Tymoshenko Attacks The Tycoons

KIEV, Ukraine -- Her Luis Vuitton suits fit to a tee, her toilette is exquisite, she tears about the country in a convoy of limousines, and she campaigns as a defender of the poor and downtrodden.

The beautiful but tough Yulia Tymoshenko
Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's top opposition politician and by all accounts the country's best-dressed and most politically-powerful woman, is out to get the rich and influential. She is taking no prisoners.

Tymoshenko, 46, is criss-crossing the land in, arguably, the former Soviet republic's first-ever nationwide whistle-stop election campaign. Wearing pure white down to her designer shoes and pearl earrings, she says she is on nothing less than a crusade against corruption - a theme with considerable resonance in Ukraine, by many accounts Europe's most corrupt nation.

'Yulia,' as most Ukrainians call petite Tymoshenko, has spent the last 45 days on the campaign trail, mostly on the road, talking to voters, speaking at rallies, and sleeping at best five hours a day.

'I have travelled the country from end to end, and people are getting tired of getting lied to over and over again,' Tymoshenko told Fakty newspaper. 'And that is going to bring us support, far more than any one expects.'

Certainly her rallies are drawing them in. Since July the Tymoshenko campaign cavalcade has rolled into hundreds of town and city squares, and sometimes the crowds number in the tens of thousands.

Tymoshenko's ability to draw in listeners is unmatched by any other Ukrainian politician, who in any case as a group prefer buying TV ads and smear news reports, over active campaigning.

The Tymoshenko stump speech is, by the standards of modern electioneering, surprisingly simple. There is a stage with red-and-white bunting, a medium-power public address system, and booths with campaign workers handing out brochures.

During the warm-up party functionaries appeal to the crowd for volunteers and contributions, and - critically as Ukraine is a country where relatives count - remind listeners that whatever they heard today, please, please tell a family member.

Tymoshenko appears, as always her coiffure in a traditional, museum-perfect Ukrainian peasant braid. Her oratory perhaps mesmerises some, but mostly, Tymoshenko holds her listeners by saying out loud, what a substantial majority of Ukrainians think about their politicians and their government.

Often, she rubbishes conventional wisdom on Ukraine in the process. Throughout, she relentlessly hammers her thesis: Corrupt government must end.

The division of Ukraine into two supposedly incompatible ethnic halves, Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking, get this treatment:

'Ukraine is not a country divided into Russians and Ukrainians, that is an artificial divide invented to frighten people ... Ukraine is divided into 47 million honest people, and a few hundred clans out to steal from the honest people.'

Her intention to become the next Prime Minister, touted by her opponents as unseemly ambition for a woman, received this broadside, recalling jail time stemming from 2001 tax evasion charges, which were subsequently dropped:

'If I had set myself the goal of being Prime Minister, I would have had that job years ago, and held it still. The thing is, the business clans gave me a choice, either stop making their life difficult, or go to prison. I went to prison, but at least my integrity stayed intact.'

The crowds have been friendly, supportive, and almost always either unwilling or too polite to bring up unpleasant issues like Tymoshenko's notoriously failed attempts to freeze petrol and food prices while she was Prime Minister in 2000, her fortune made in government natural gas imports during the 1990s, or the two dozen or so very wealthy businessmen on her own party list.

'We are all tired of the rich clans using government to steal from us, and making us poor,' her speeches often conclude. 'It needs to stop, and with your help we can stop it together. Glory to Ukraine!'

In town after town, village after village, that sentence has received standing ovations.

Ukrainian pollsters are a bit sceptical, usually predicting Tymoshenko's eponymous political party Block of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) stands to gather in 25 to 30 per cent of the popular vote, in a clear second place to the currently ruling Regions Ukraine party, currently on track to take between 32 and 40 per cent of the vote.

'Do not underestimate the Ukrainian people,' Tymoshenko countered in a recent interview. 'They have had enough.'

Source: Deutsche Presse-Agentur

Ukraine Election: Are Voters Taking It Seriously?

MOSCOW, Russia -- Sunday's parliamentary election is supposed to get Ukraine out of a political crisis that has paralysed the country for two years. Yet, as political leaders talk up the importance of the poll, many voters seem to be regarding it as a bit of a joke.

Viktor Yanukovich's puppet in satirical TV show
And this mood has been captured by a host of satirical shows on national TV.

News programmes give way to political sitcoms

One of Ukraine’s TV stations is broadcasting a sitcom called “Domkom” (‘house committee’), which potrays the lives of ordinary Ukrainians in an ordinary flat. But the main characters of the series look very similar to the country's main political figures – President Yushchenko, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and Ukraine’s most famous lady, Yulia Timoshenko. The sitcom is already popular, and its ratings are growing every day.

Ukrainian people often say they feel like puppets on a string when it comes to politics. But in a new satirical show called ‘pupsnya’, it's the politicians who are portrayed as puppets.

And Yulia Timoshenko, Prime Minister Yanukovich, and President Yushchenko seem to be providing enough material to allow this Viktor Yanukovich's
show run for years. A special episode of 'Pupsnya' was dedicated to promises made by politicians in the run-up to the election. It used the idea of bubbles. Each time a promise is made, bubbles of different shapes and sizes blow from the mouths of the characters.

Who blows the biggest bubble?

The biggest bubble of this election campaign is the social programme. Each partiy is trying to woo voters with promises of higher pensions and salaries.

The presidential Our Ukraine party is pledging $US 3,000 to families for the birth of a second child. But the Party of Regions, loyal to the Prime Minister, has promised $US 2,000 more if they win the election.

Meanwhile the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc is hoping for the votes of Ukrainian women by pledging to stop military conscription from 2008.

”We found that the country only pays for 28 days of military training out of one year service in the army. And the rest of the time conscripts are cleaning, guarding derelict objects or building summer houses for their generals. That’s not the army we need,” Yulia Timoshenko said.

The presidential Our Ukraine Party slammed her idea as inadequate and concentrated instead on building closer ties to Europe, visa-free travel, attracting émigrés back home and strengthening the Ukrainian identity.

“Speaking about Ukraine’s future, I am sure it is connected with the European Union, with the preparation of the whole country in economic, social, political and religious spheres. Everything we do should be aimed at our entering the EU. It will not happen soon, but we all understand that we should build Europe ourselves, here in Ukraine,” Yury Lutsenko from the Our Ukraine Party said.

The Party of Regions is also focusing on fighting poverty and corruption. Watching Timoshenko’s Bloc toying with the idea of a referendum to restore the President’s powers, they suggested one too.

“No to membership in NATO, Ukraine needs to be a neutral state. Russian should be the second official language in Ukraine. More power to the regions,” said Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich at a political rally.

Tent city

There are worries there could be confrontation in central Kiev in the wake of the election. A stage is being mounted in Independence Square for an ‘orange’ bloc concert.

Their opponents are also there, with tents and blue flags According to some forecasts up to 300,000 people are likely to gather on Sunday, September 30, the day of the election.

Activists say that they will take to the streets if they consider the results of the election rigged.

The previous parliament was dismissed by President Yushchenko in April. The move led to a storm of demonstrations and ended with an emergency election.

Source: Russia Today

The EU's Invisible Helping Hand In Ukraine

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- It has long been argued that Ukraine is a country at the crossroads. Over the past three years, a rollercoaster of internal developments, Russia's increasing assertiveness and, most importantly, the EU's continued ambivalence have arguably made this assessment justified.

EU flag
Over the past year, however, Brussels' position on Ukraine has achieved a reasonable, if understated, level of consistency. As Ukraine approaches crucial polls on 30 September, it may then be useful to spell out what Ukrainians can realistically expect from it.

Many in Kiev rightly feel that the EU owes it to Ukraine. The EU's Neighbourhood Policy was originally conceived for Europe's Eastern flank and seemed an enticing offer. But by the time it came to being in 2004, the Policy had expanded to include the Mediterranean basin, thus considerably watering down its strategic significance for Ukraine.

After the Orange Revolution spectacularly toppled the powerful, Russia-friendly elite in 2005, Brussels response was also somewhat bland. Then came the failed referenda on the EU Constitution in France and the Netherlands, and the subsequent inward-looking mood in Europe, which further hampered Ukraine's aspirations.

Surely, with a shaky constitutional balance, an opaque system of economic governance, and the old establishment partly back in power, Ukraine's domestic situation remains highly volatile. Moreover, Russia's influence on the country is cultural and societal as much as it is political and economic, a factor that has to be reckoned with regardless of the level of EU support.

Even so, Ukraine is a far more pluralistic country than most post-Soviet states. It has -at least in its Western part - a consistently pro-European population, and is placed in a strategically crucial position: all of which has warranted a more substantial stand from the EU.

Starting with economic integration

Economic integration is an obvious place to start. The EU - Ukraine's first trading partner - has put forward the idea of a 'deep' free trade agreement. In Eurospeak, this implies that Ukraine will gradually adopt the EU economic standards and regulatory norms.

It remains to be seen to what extent the Ukrainian leadership will be able to implement costly and complicated EU-styled reforms. But this is in itself a largely welcome proposal, because it will set concrete benchmarks to anchor Ukraine to the EU's internal market.

Connected to this is Ukraine's role in the EU's fledgling common energy policy. The infamous row between Ukraine and Russia over gas supplies in early 2006 made Ukraine's position as a key transit country only more apparent.

Ukraine will be encouraged to integrate its energy market, particularly gas and electricity, to the European one. This is precisely what the Energy Community Treaty between the EU and the Western Balkans is for, and should be extended to Ukraine.

The movement of people is just as crucial to foster exchanges and a sense of inclusion. On 18 June, the EU and Ukraine signed a deal on visa facilitation and, crucially, readmission (which means that Kiev agrees to take back illegal migrants entering the EU from Ukraine, even if these are not Ukrainian nationals).

Admittedly, the new system will make a tangible difference only for certain groups of people (like students, journalists and businessmen) and, judging by the difficulties of the current regime, is bound to present serious challenges of implementation. Yet, given the levels of border control in Ukraine and the sensitivities on this matter inside the EU, Kiev cannot realistically aspire for more for the time being.

Foreign policy

The EU also suggests that Ukraine aligns its position to EU foreign policy declarations and enhances its participation in crisis management operations carried out under the EU flag. The outlook here is quite promising: Ukraine already subscribes to the vast majority of EU declarations and has contributed substantially to some EU operations, most notably in Transdniestria, Moldova's breakaway statelet, which Ukraine borders.

Moreover, after enlarging to Bulgaria and Romania in 2007, the EU has become a fully-fledged actor in the Black Sea and has launched a regional ‘Synergy'. Ukraine is a heavyweight here, not only as one of the largest littoral countries, but also as the promoter of a number of regional initiatives.

Brussels' strategy in this context should be aimed at bringing its Black Sea Synergy closer to Ukraine's foreign policy priorities, particularly in the field of democracy promotion at the regional level. Not incidentally, the first ministerial meeting of the new Synergy will take place in Kiev next January.

EU membership prospects

Lastly, there is the elusive question of Ukraine's EU membership aspirations. Last March, the EU and Ukraine opened negotiations on a new 'Enhanced Agreement' which will bind legally many of the issues mentioned above. The new agreement will not answer the membership question and, given the continuing introspection inside the EU over enlargement, Ukraine might as well refrain from asking it.

At the same time, the items characterising Brussels' Ukraine agenda are geared to tie Ukraine firmly to Europe. They may not make the EU position visible or particularly bold. But depending also on the conduct and the outcome of next week's election, they could in due course do the next best thing: make the membership question an elephant in the room.

Source: EU Observer

Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" Duo Fight Disillusion

TERNOPIL, Ukraine -- The leaders of Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" have set aside their differences but face a battle to win back voters disenchanted with progress since the mass protests of 2004.

Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" duo, President Viktor Yushchenko and former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko
President Viktor Yushchenko and former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko have been touring strongholds in western Ukraine urging voters to forget the disunity that toppled their first government and back their parties in Sunday's parliamentary election.

"Some of you may have given up the fight or have come with heads bowed, weary of quarrels. I understand how you feel," Yushchenko told 20,000 supporters at a weekend music festival in the tidy provincial town of Ternopil.

"Mistakes were made, humiliating, immoral actions committed. But our time has come. If we want the Ukrainian nation to win here we must overcome our own egoism. We must be united."

The pro-Western Yushchenko defeated his rival Viktor Yanukovich in the rerun of a rigged 2004 election after weeks of mass protests against vote rigging.

Tymoshenko, whose fiery speeches roused crowds during the "orange" protests, became prime minister. But infighting led to her dismissal and undermined plans to move Ukraine closer to the West and eventually join NATO and the European Union.

Defections among "orange" allies torpedoed a bid to form another liberal government after a parliamentary poll last year, allowing a resurgent Yanukovich to become prime minister.

Yushchenko blamed Tymoshenko for the debacle, but the two have since formed a tactical alliance. Both urge voters to elect enough "orange" members to enable them to form a government.

Yanukovich, backed by Moscow in 2004, now describes himself as pro-European and his Regions Party tops polls.

But the combined tally of the president's Our Ukraine party and Tymoshenko's bloc is close behind and tough post-election talks to form a coalition are certain.

Both back liberal ideals and market economics and promotion of Ukraine's language and national identity, though the campaign is dominated by talk of better living standards and benefits.

GOING TO RALLIES

Residents of the region - dotted by imposing eastern-rite Catholic churches - spent much of the weekend harvesting potatoes, many using a horse and plough. But hundreds boarded convoys of buses to attend the rallies in provincial towns.

Tymoshenko was more forthright in urging voters, who earn considerably less than the national average monthly pay of $250, to head to polling stations.

"No one who has Ukraine's interests at heart has the right to be disillusioned. We were simply too naive after the Orange Revolution," Tymoshenko, impeccably dressed and sporting her trademark braid, said in the brightly painted town of Kolomyia.

"Could we truly have expected to see results and a different country the morning after the revolution?" Of course not!"

Unlike Yanukovich, who uses blunt, homespun language in short addresses in his Russian-speaking industrial eastern strongholds, both "orange" leaders speak in Ukrainian for 40 minutes and more, referring frequently to Ukraine's history.

Crowds received them warmly, but without much of the fire of the 2004 rallies. And friction between the two leaders has yet to abate completely.

Yushchenko rarely refers to Tymoshenko by name and refuses to rule out a post-election "grand coalition" between his party and Yanukovich's Regions Party -- said by some to be a way of bridging the traditional gap between Ukraine's east and west.

Tymoshenko said she was disturbed by any notion that the president might agree to a deal with the man he beat in the turbulent 2004 presidential poll.

"You must never think that a broad coalition will unite east and west," she told supporters. "It is a betrayal of east and west. When you enter such a coalition the compromises imposed on you are incompatible with change."

Source: Reuters

Ukraine Defense Minister Rapped For Seeking NATO Membership

KIEV, Ukraine -- Deputy Prime Minister Dmytro Tabachnyk on Monday condemned efforts by Defense Minister Anatoly Hrytsenko to have Ukraine join NATO and accused him of ignoring the Ukrainian people's interests in seeking Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic alliance.

Defense Minister Anatoly Hrytsenko
"It is via the president that Hrytsenko seeks approval of the Cabinet of Ministers for the Defense Ministry budget. If he considers this normal, he either needs to ask his financiers for help or ask his doctors for tablets for his excessive pursuit of fame," Tabachnyk told reporters.

For the past 14 months, Hrytsenko has not been working as part of the Cabinet team and has constantly been blocking various initiatives, Tabachnyk said.

The amount of proposed defense allocations in the 2008 draft budget is twice that in, say, the 2005 budget, the deputy premier said.

Tabachnyk also accused Hrytsenko of initiating Cabinet debates on matters that fall outside his authority.

The defense minister also pursues the wrong policy by seeking NATO membership for Ukraine, Tabachnyk argued.

"What is the purpose of increasing the terrorist threat for Ukraine several times over by integrating with the alliance? What is the purpose of making Ukrainian young men or officers cannon fodder for the United States in any spot on the planet? What is the purpose of deceiving the Ukrainian people that membership in the alliance offers Ukraine guarantees of security?" Tabachnyk said.

The deputy prime minister also complained that after Hrytsenko took over the defense portfolio, the Defense Ministry slashed military housing construction and closed down an army officer training facility in Odesa.

"I think he will only work until the elections [of September 30]," Tabachnyk said.

Source: Interfax

Ukraine Democracy Needs U.S. Help

BALTIMORE, USA -- Next Sunday, with Ukraine's once-hopeful Orange Revolution in disarray, that wonderful but beleaguered country will hold a national parliament election that is shaping up to be another political storm - one where an ill wind blows through to steal the vote.


The Bush administration, so focused on forcing change in Iraq, has turned its back on the survival of Ukraine's fragile new democracy.

The United States must join Europe's leading democracies and closely watch the parliament, or Rada, election. If we don't, freedom-loving Ukrainians may be robbed again.

I first met courageous refugees from Ukraine as a young soldier in Europe after World War II. I was struck by their indomitable spirit and appreciation of our democratic institutions.

Ukrainian identity, which predates Russia, was never successfully suppressed under the Romanov czars or Stalin's dictatorship.

In November 2005, while I was an election monitor in Ukraine, I witnessed a stolen election that was later reversed by thousands of young Ukrainians, gathered under orange flags in Kiev's Maidan Square.

They wouldn't stand for election fraud.

As large as Texas and with almost 50 million people, Ukraine was the cradle of Slavic civilization. It was starved by Stalin and devastated by Hitler.

Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was ruled by Communist successors with Soviet corruption, exploitation and incompetence.

Nevertheless, Ukraine is the most educated and enlightened of the nations of the former Soviet Union, and is a beacon of hope for all.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukrainians have continued to aspire to a better life, and to vote in huge numbers.

Today, with Kremlin-influenced oligarchs bankrolling two of the top three parties, Russia is trying to bring Ukraine back into its orbit.

A stolen election would be just what the Russians ordered.

Igor Popov thinks so. The head of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine, he believes Sunday's elections will be "dirtier" than those in 2006, when the world was watching.

"In 2006, President Viktor Yushchenko was very interested in showing the world that we are capable of conducting honest elections," he wrote in a recent report. This time, he fears leading parties will again try to manipulate the elections.

Today, our country, the world's leading democracy, has forgotten Ukraine and the need for effective election monitoring. In 2005, USAID funded a monitoring mission of more than 30 former U.S. and European legislators; I was among them.

Since then, the organizing group, the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation, has been forced to completely close shop in Ukraine for lack of Bush administration support.

In contrast, the European Parliament's largest political group recently urged member states to send observers to Ukraine.

Joseph Daul, leader of the European People's Party and European Democrats, sees the elections as a test of the country's readiness to emerge from its recent political turmoil.

In an interview earlier this month, he said that fair results are important for "strengthening Ukraine's democracy" and its "European future."

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe will observe. A smattering of other international nonprofit groups, including a few Americans, are signed up too. But unless the number of registered international observers - just 400 so far - increases drastically, a tree could fall in an empty forest and no one will hear.

What will happen next in Ukraine if another election is stolen? Perhaps Ukrainian poet-laureate Taras Shevchenko said it best in his poem, "My Friendly Epistle" in 1845:

[I will] grieve like one accursed, Through all the hours both last and first, Sad at the crossroads, day and night, With no one there to see my plight.

Across a century since his death, Shevchenko's beloved poems evoked heartfelt sympathy for oppressed people everywhere and evolved into an indictment of rulers who abuse their power.

Today, it is imperative the United States heed his words and join the international community to watch the Rada elections closely.

Source: Baltimore Sun

Ukraine Poll Could End Orange Revolution

MOSCOW, Russia -- It was, at least in the eyes of the Russian president, the scene of Vladimir Putin's greatest humiliation. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians massed in central Kiev in late 2004 to protest against a presidential election victory rigged in favour of the pro-Kremlin candidate Viktor Yanukovych.

Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko
After weeks of noisy but peaceful protest, they succeeded. Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-Western reformer, was swept to power amid scenes of unprecedented euphoria.

Almost three years after those heady days, Ukrainians return to the polls next weekend to vote in a parliamentary election.

At stake, their leaders say, is a simple choice: to revive the stalled ideals of the Orange Revolution or to kill it off altogether.

Both Moscow and Washington will be watching closely in a country that remains an important battleground in the growing power clash between the West and a resurgent Russia.

For Ukrainians, however, the optimism engendered by the Orange Revolution has largely been replaced by disillusionment and indifference.

The result of Sunday's poll is likely to be little different to the outcome of the last parliamentary election held 18 months ago.

And again the bitter divisions of Ukraine will be on inglorious display.

Ukrainians in the Russian-speaking industrial heartlands of the east as well as in Crimea in the south will largely vote for the pro-Kremlin Party of the Regions headed by Mr Yanukovych.

His party is expected to become the single largest one in parliament, but will fall short of the overall majority needed to form a government.

This means it will have to enter coalition talks with the two parties in the Orange camp led by the president and his rival, Yulia Tymoshenko.

Mr Yushchenko will then have to appoint either Mr Yanukovych or Mrs Tymoshenko as his prime minister.

He has tried both before. Mrs Tymoshenko served as prime minister for nine acrimonious months in 2005 before the president sacked her amid charges of corruption and divisions over economic policy.

After the last election he turned to his erstwhile rival Mr Yanukovych, whose supporters were accused of slipping dioxin into the president's soup in 2004, leaving his face badly scarred.

Most analysts expect that the president will now turn back to Mrs Tymoshenko, whose bloc is the only party likely to increase its representation in parliament and who this time will be in a stronger position to dictate terms.

She will also be able to use the premiership as a platform to challenge Mr Yushchenko for the presidency in 2009.

Indeed, the glamorous 46-year-old already seems to have the aura of a presidential rather than a prime-ministerial candidate — something demonstrated when she flew to London on Friday for talks with Margaret Thatcher.

A Tymoshenko premiership is also likely to upset Russia. She supports Ukraine's membership of the European Union and NATO and has also been vitriolic in her condemnation of Moscow's interference in Ukraine.

When Mrs Tymoshenko was prime minister in 2005, the Kremlin severed gas supplies to Ukraine, the main energy conduit between Russia and Europe, causing both interruptions and panic in the EU.

Relations improved when Mr Yanukovych was prime minister but some analysts warn of a new gas dispute if Mrs Tymoshenko returns.

Source: The Telegraph

Tymoshenko Wants To Be Ukrainian PM Again

IVANO-FRANKIVSK, Ukraine -- Fiery Ukrainian politician Yulia Tymoshenko urged President Viktor Yushchenko to forget past differences and back her for prime minister if "Orange Revolution" forces win next week's election.

Yulia Tymoshenko (pictured) said Yushchenko should unambiguously rule out any broad coalition with his rival, Prime Minister Yanukovich.
In an interview, Tymoshenko, whose highly-charged speeches made her the heroine of street protests that swept Yushchenko to power in 2004, said he should unambiguously rule out any broad coalition with his rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich.

"This is what I want the president to say. I am uneasy about what I hear him saying in interviews," she said during a tour of western Ukraine, a stronghold of the "Orange" vote.

"Now is the time to tell people who are going to vote just what sort of coalition they can expect by voting for this or that political party," said Tymoshenko, wearing her hair in her trademark Ukrainian peasant braids.

Tymoshenko was a natural choice for Yushchenko's first prime minister after the 2004 "Orange" victory that set Ukraine on a new, openly pro-Western path.

But her government was riddled by infighting and she was sacked eight months later amid open antagonism with Yushchenko who blamed her for all the troubles of the post-orange period.

She hoped to head a new "Orange" team after a parliamentary election last year, but was thwarted by Yanukovich, the Moscow-backed loser in the 2004 upheaval, who bounced back and became prime minister instead after long negotiations.

But the power struggle between Yushchenko and Yanukovich has continued and led to next week's parliamentary poll.

Tymoshenko said the president had to clearly back a new "Orange" government and not consider a "broad coalition" with Yanukovich on the premise of bridging Ukraine's longstanding divisions.

The pro-Western Yushchenko said last week he believed "Orange" forces would win the election and he could foresee Tymoshenko as prime minister again. But though he said a coalition with Yanukovich was unlikely because of political and ideological differences, he did not rule it out entirely.

Source: Gulf News

Thatcher Blesses Ukraine Iron Lady

LONDON, England -- Ukraine’s former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, flew into London last week to meet Baroness Thatcher, vowing to drag her country kicking and screaming away from the Russian bear and into the European fold if she returns to office after elections next weekend.

Yulia Tymoshenko (L), saying goodbye to Baroness Thatcher
“Real women don’t do U-turns,” she said after the meeting, referring to Thatcher’s famous declaration that “the lady’s not for turning”.

Tymoshenko curled into the back seat of a car, dressed in a sleek cream wool shift matched with 4in high heels. “I think I can be an iron lady and inside still a human,” she said. “It’s about the ability to preserve the human touch.”

Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko, her party, is tipped to do well in the elections and she is the favour-ite to be the next prime minister. With her trademark braid curled around her head, hers is one of the two faces of the orange revolution, a striking contrast to that of Viktor Yushchenko, the president, who was disfigured by an attempt to poison him with dioxin, an act he blames on the Russians.

She admits the braid is a “pin on”. “I found the style simple,” she said. “It saves time, and it’s very traditional.”

Tymoshenko is pro-western and pro-free market, hence the meeting with Thatcher, who was so taken with her that she told her she would have liked to campaign on her behalf.

A billionairess who made her fortune in the free-for-all chaos of the mid 1990s in Ukraine’s gas business, she is brimming with confidence that her party will win at the polls.

Tymoshenko, 46, was supposedly betrayed by Yushchenko when he went back on a deal that saw her agree not to run for president if she could serve as prime minister. He dismissed her after seven months.

He then suffered the ignominy of being forced to replace her with a candidate approved by his arch-rival, the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych.

Tymoshenko is passionate in her convictions and has no fear of Ukraine’s macho political style. “Women are stronger. Like Thatcher, I’m committed to changing my country for the better,” she said. She was delighted with a gift of Thatcher’s memoirs, inscribed “To Julia, Fighter for Freedom”.

Her mission is “first, to preserve our hard-won independence and to get rid of postSoviet bureaucracy”. She promised to fight corruption, the single most difficult issue and one that polls show is people’s biggest concern. Even Moscow does not scare her. “If the independence of the Ukraine is at stake, then I will call people on to the streets.”

It will be a tough fight. In parliamentary elections last year the single largest share of the vote went to the Party of the Regions, led by Yanukovych.

Tymoshenko flew back in a private jet to campaign in these very regions where Ukraine’s 17% ethnic Russian minority, many of whom pine for closer ties with Moscow, are concentrated. A heady mix of beauty and brains, a whirlwind of energy, like Thatcher she may change her country for ever.

Source: The Sunday Times

East European Immigrants Fuel Return Of Servant Class

LONDON, England -- There was a time when the flustered British housewife of a certain rank would look disdainfully at the dirty marks on her cutlery and despairingly exclaim: "You just can't get the staff."

British socialite Tara Palmer-Tomkinson in her Lamborghini
The good news for the overworked middle classes who are looking for help with the chores is that now they can.

Migration from eastern Europe, Africa and Asia is creating a ready supply of willing downstairs staff, with more and more being employed to watch the kids and clean the bathroom in a kind of international class system, according to a new report.

Just this week, the socialite Tara Palmer-Tomkinson revealed that she had a "massive staff", mainly from Ukraine. "As I don't have a husband, I rather look forward to having people around me. I have half the Ukraine here every day. It's like the Russian army coming in to clean. I want to come back at night and feel like I'm in a five-star hotel," she said.

The bad news for the migrants, however, is that high-powered executives and business people are increasingly picky about who they employ, with white women being the preferred home help, the study, by Bridget Anderson of Oxford University, says.

Men are considered too much of a risk to be looking after young children, especially girls, and black people are unpopular as au pairs.

While race was described by one agency as "the unmentionable", there are also more complex reasons for the choosiness. The British middle classes are looking for domestic help who can't easily pack up and leave, which means employing people from war-torn countries or from non-EU countries whose presence in Britain is dependent on their employment.

The top five sources for maids and butlers are the Philippines, Ukraine, Latvia, Malaysia and Zimbabwe.

"It is legal for a private householder to refuse to employ someone on the grounds of their colour, their nationality or their religion, and from our interviews with employers, it is clear that they do," say the researchers, whose work is to be published in the European Journal of Women's Studies.

"Employers are not only looking for generic 'foreignness', however, but typically also seek particular nationalities or ethnicities of worker, which can raise difficulties for agencies who are not allowed to discriminate on the basis of 'race'."

Half of British households employ some form of domestic staff in an industry now thought to be worth around £20bn a year.

On average, each household spends around £1,924 on chauffeurs, dog walkers, babysitters, nannies and cooks.

Relations with domestic staff do not always run smoothly, however. Sting's wife, Trudie Styler, was sued by her cook, Jane Martin, earlier this year.

Ms Martin claimed sexual discrimination after being forced to work 14-hour days while pregnant. The tribunal heard how Ms Styler, 52, abused her domestic staff to make her "feel royal".

Where do they get their staff?

Philippines - Main provider of cleaning staff in domestic households. Described by President Gloria Arroyo as a nation that provides "supermaids".

Ukraine - Female domestic workers from the Ukraine are very popular with UK working mothers looking for au pairs.

Zimbabwe - Zimbabweans mainly work as cleaners in schools and hospitals.

Latvia - Many Latvians work as butlers due to the comparatively good salaries compared with other domestic work.

Malaysia - Malaysians gravitate towards domestic work – many work as household maids in the UK.

Source: The Independent on Sunday

Ukraine ‘Enraged’ By EU Visa Comments

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- Ukraine's EU ambassador Roman Shpek has criticised comments made by external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner over the issue of visas.

External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner
In an interview given earlier this week to Ukrainian newspaper Delo, Ferrero-Waldner said that the EU would not ratify its visa facilitation agreement with Kiev until Ukraine abolished visas for Romania and Bulgaria.

But Ukraine insists that this issue was already discussed during the annual EU-Ukraine summit earlier this month, during which Kiev announced that the visa-free regime for Bulgaria and Romania would only be extended and adopted following due internal procedures.

Shpek’s office told theParliament.com that Ukraine’s decision to establish a visa waiver scheme for EU citizens was done of its own volition in 2005, and that the EU therefore has “no grounds to demand … that such a regime be extended automatically to new member states”.

Furthermore, the ambassador voiced his displeasure over Ferrero-Waldner’s comments that Ukraine’s failure to extend the visa-free scheme would “affect the authority of the president, the prime minister and Ukraine itself”.

In a statement, the ambassador went on to criticise the EU over the practice of “groundless and humiliating” visa refusals to Ukrainian citizens in certain member states, as well as the activities of intermediary visa centres.

“Such a practice gravely contravenes the provisions of the visa facilitation agreement signed in June this year,” said the statement.

Ukraine remains confident however that the issue of establishing a visa-free regime for Bulgaria and Romania, and ensuring swift visa issuance for Ukrainian citizens, can be settled.

In addition, a joint summit statement issued last week reaffirmed both Ukraine and EU intentions “to embark upon negotiations on a comprehensive free trade area as a core element of the new enhanced agreement”.

The annual bilateral meetings between Ukraine and the EU were established by the partnership and cooperation agreement ratified in 1998.

Source: The Parliament

Margaret Thatcher Meets Ukraine's Tymoshenko

LONDON, England -- Lady Thatcher met another iron lady of politics yesterday, holding talks with Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko to discuss topics close to both their hearts - economic reform and winning elections.

Two "iron ladies" - Yulia Tymoshenko (L) and Margaret Thatcher.
Mrs Tymoshenko, who became the Ukraine’s first female prime minister in 2005 before her government was dismissed amid scandal just seven months later, said she had long admired Lady Thatcher and thanked her for helping lift the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe.

Wearing the blonde, braided hair that is her trademark, Mrs Tymoshenko said Lady Thatcher had transformed Britain from the “sick man” of Europe into one of Europe’s strongest economies.

“She was firm in adversity and stood up to oppression when others remained seated,” Mrs Tymoshenko said. “Her words spoke for countless millions across Eastern Europe who had no voice. She helped write a new chapter for our nation and we remain indebted to her courage.”

Lady Thatcher responded by saying she hoped Ukraine’s election, due on September 30, would be free and fair and a “guiding light for democracy in Eastern Europe”.

“I wish for Ukraine to quickly complete its transformation and for its people to enjoy the benefits of a prosperous democratic nation at the heart of a modern Europe,” she said. “The Orange Revolution gave hope to freedom-loving people everywhere. Its spirit clearly lives on.”

Lady Thatcher gave Mrs Tymoshenko a signed copy of her memoirs and Mrs Tymoshenko presented Lady Thatcher with a boxed replica of a 2000 year-old Scythian artwork.

Source: Telegraph

Oligarchs Loom Over Ukraine Polls

KIEV, Ukraine -- At the recent convention of Ukraine's Regions party, the man at the centre of attention was not Viktor Yanukovich, prime minister and party leader, but Rinat Akhmetov, the country's richest man.

Billionaire Rinat Akhmetov
Sitting in the front row, two seats from Mr Yanukovich, he attracted the biggest crowds of journalists, politicians and cameramen.

Meanwhile, Yulia Tymoshenko, the leader of the rival Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko, has been seen on the campaign trail riding in a helicopter with Kostyantin Zhevago, an iron ore billionaire.

And even President Viktor Yushchenko, who has often decried the political influence of Ukraine's oligarchs, has allowed himself to get close to leading businessmen, who have donated money to Yushchenko-backed charities.

With all parties campaigning hard for the September 30 parliamentary elections, politicians are taking all the support they can. And some – though not all – of the country's business oligarchs are ready to lend a hand.

But it is a delicate relationship. Mr Yushchenko has warned openly that the oligarchs are once again interfering in politics and gaining "the taste of power".

His remarks will strike a chord with those voters who believe businessmen have too big a say in politics. But his comments will be dismissed as electioneering by others, who claim the oligarchs' influence is exaggerated.

The oligarchs were formidable political players before the 2004 Orange Revolution, but they were generally obedient to ex-president Leonid Kuchma, currying favour to expand their businesses, often through privatisation deals.

When Mr Yushchenko came to power, supported by the firebrand Ms Tymoshenko, some businessmen feared the new leaders would seek to reverse a decade of privatisation.

But those concerns waned after Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko fell out in 2005 and the privatisation review ended with the cancellation of just one big deal – the Kryvorizhstal steel mill.

The president then said he wanted to move on and work with business. That message was reinforced once Mr Yanukovich, the president's arch-rival, returned to power as prime minister last year.

With the economy booming, the oligarchs recovered their poise – and enjoyed unprecedented increases in profits and asset values. Meanwhile, the political reforms that followed the Orange Revolution devolved power from the president to parliament – giving MPs, many of them millionaire business people, greater access to power.

With Mr Yushchenko and Mr Yanukovich at loggerheads, and both battling Ms Tymoshenko, the principal opposition leader, post-Orange Revolution politics has offered many openings for oligarchs. Mr Yushchenko called the elections early mainly because he was concerned about corruption in parliament.

The business oligarchs have broadly accepted the president's plans to balance Ukraine's longstanding ties with Russia with closer ties to the European Union. And with Europe becoming Ukraine's main trading partner in recent years, they have increasingly supported Kiev's EU-oriented policy.

"[They] understand the need to put their suits on before entering world markets and the need to clean up their act, push reforms in the country and in their companies," says Kost Bondarenko, a political analyst.

Another analyst, Andriy Yermolaev, sees a divide between pro-Yanukovich businessmen, led by Mr Akhmetov, whose companies are based in east Ukrainian heavy industry, and those oligarchs supporting the president and Ms Tymo-shenko, who tend to have more diversified financial and trading interests, such as Igor Kolomoisky, head of the Privat banking-based group.

The Yushchenko/Tymoshenko supporters favour rapid economic reform and liberalisation. The pro-Yanukovich businessmen are more conservative. "The rivalry between these two groups is quite damaging and ruthless," says Mr Yermolaev.

Mr Yushchenko is particularly worried about Mr Akhmetov, who stands out among oligarchs as the richest and most overt in his political involvement. An MP for the Regions party, the largest in parliament, he has long backed Mr Yanukovich and worked with him in managing rich, Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine.

The party recently infuriated the president by pushing for a referendum calling for official status for the Russian language and challenging Mr Yushchenko's hopes of closer ties to NATO.

Ms Tymoshenko claims Mr Akhmetov profits from his loyalty to Mr Yanukovich, citing his recent acquisition of a stake in a big state-controlled power generator, Dniproenergo. Mr Akhmetov has denied that he benefited from preferential treatment.

Mr Kolomoisky and Mr Akhmetov did not respond to requests for comment about their political interests. Among several other business leaders, only Serhiy Taruta, co-owner of the leading steel producer ISD Group, agreed to answer questions about politics. The business elite was generally "seeking to be apolitical, as playing in politics can unearth serious risks" for long-term business relations and reputations, he said.

That may be true for Mr Taruta, but clearly not for some of his big rivals.

The Oligarchs

Rinat Akhmetov, aged 41. Controls assets in steel, coal, energy, banking, hotels, telecoms, television and soccer. Estimated worth: $15.6bn (£7.7bn, €11.1bn). Backed Viktor Yanukovich in the 2004 presidential elections. A dedicated member of the premier's Regions party and, since March 2006, an MP, but has some discreet links with Viktor Yushchenko too. He backs the president's EU membership bid but opposes his plans for speedy NATO accession. Backs making Russian official language.

Viktor Pinchuk, aged 46. Controls assets in steel pipe production, railway wheels, media and banking. Estimated worth: $7bn. Son-in-law to former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma. Backed Mr Yanukovich in 2004 elections. Ex-MP, stepped down after the Orange Revolution. Some close associates from his past have recently joined Mr Yanukovich's Regions party as parliamentary candidates. Supports EU membership aspirations. Has not been vocal on Mr Yushchenko's NATO plans or the Russian language issue.

Igor Kolomoisky, aged 44. Controls assets in banking, ore mining, steel, energy, ferro alloys, hydrocarbons and media. Estimated worth: $3.5bn. Main co-owner of Ukraine's Privat business group with Gennady Bogolyubov, aged 45. Privat holds assets outside Ukraine, including factories in Russia, Romania, Poland and the US. Neither has served in parliament or government but according to analysts, both have backed various political parties. Neither has publicly expressed personal views on the EU, NATO or Russian language.

Sergey Taruta, aged 62. Assets in steel, machine building, hotels, gas production. Estimated worth: $2.3bn. Co-owns Ukraine's industrial ISD Group along with Vitali Gayduk, an ex-government official. Like Mr Akhmetov's empire, this group started in the industrial Donbass. ISD has invested outside Ukraine, including in steel mills in Hungary, Poland and the US. The group appears to try avoid intervening in politics but is viewed as pro-Yushchenko, even though it has not publicly support an EU membership bid.

Kostyantin Zhevago, aged 32. Assets in ore mining, banking, truck manufacturing, hydrocarbons and real estate. Estimated worth: $2bn. Has served as legislator, switching between parties since the late 1990s. Currently member of Yulia Tymoshenko's bloc. Supports EU integration, but has not expressed views on NATO or language.

Dmitry Firtash, aged 42. Assets in gas and electricity trading, chemicals, media and real estate. Estimated worth: $1.4bn. Not publicly active in politics since an unsuccessful bid for parliament in 2002. Viewed as a backer of various parties and political projects. Has strong relations in Moscow as a partner of Russia's Gazprom in Swiss-registered gas trader RosUkrEnergo. Has not expressed his views on EU membership, NATO or the Russian language issue.

Source: MSNBC

Regions Prove They Cannot Change

KIEV, Ukraine -- In the last three years US political technologists and other US-based consultants have routinely argued that Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions have changed into a modern and democratic party. Little evidence has been shown to prove this argument but nevertheless the mantra has been chanted at every available opportunity.

PM Viktor Yanukovych

Two factors explain such dogged claims. This first is the ideological support for an oligarch-controlled economy and lack of scholarly objectivity.

The Yulia Tymoshenko government came under intense criticism by US think tank senior fellows in academic and media articles who used every speaking engagement to attack its record as “odious.”

At the same time, these senior fellows have never criticized the Yanukovych government for pursuing anti-market reform policies: oil price capping, banning grain exports and non-transparent insider privatizations.

They have never sought to criticize any aspect of the Party of Regions, which includes numerous senior deputies from the Kuchma era, such as energy mogul Yuri Boiko and former Central Election Commission Chairman Serhi Kivalov, as ‘odious’ in the same way as the criticism that they unleashed against the Tymoshenko government and BYuT.

Secondly, financial support. Ukrainian and Russian media have claimed that political technologist Paul Manafort’s contract with the Party of Regions is worth millions of dollars.

Ukrainian oligarchs have reportedly distributed largesse to at least two think tanks and one democracy promotion NGO in Washington DC. According to an April 17 article entitled “How Lobbyists Help Ex-Soviets Woo Washington” in The Wall Street Journal, “A company controlled by Mr. Akhmetov donated $300,000 in 2005 to a human-rights charity run by Mr. Jackson and his wife, an Internal Revenue Service document reviewed by The Wall Street Journal shows. Mr. Jackson said he was grateful for the support.” Bruce Jackson is head of the Washington-based Project on Transitional Democracies who supported the Orange Revolution in 2004.

Beyond wishful thinking there is no evidence to show that Prime Minister Yanukovych or the Party of Regions have fundamentally changed from the Kuchma era.

Five policy areas prove that the Regions and Yanukovych have changed only cosmetically since the Kuchma era.

Firstly, the Party of Regions pursues a Janus-face approach to politics, just as did former President Kuchma. The nice image cultivated by the Regions in the West is very different from the reality on the ground in eastern Ukraine where the Regions are entrenched.

This can be readily ascertained from a communication recently received from Kharkiv: “The expansion of Donetsk capital in the Kharkiv region is very great. The ‘Donetski’ are also expanding their Soviet political culture into the Kharkiv regon through the use of Soviet discourse, exploitation of the myths of the ‘Great Patriotic War’ and an aggressive stance towards Ukrainian nationalism and the 1933 artificial famine,” explained my colleague in Kharkiv. He said that in his city, the Regions have aligned themselves with former local organized crime boss Hennadiy Kernes.

Secondly, the Regions’ unwillingness to distance itself from discredited Kuchma-era officials. The Regions’ Rada faction and the Yanuovych government are full of such officials who, if President Viktor Yushchenko had implemented his election promises, would have faced criminal charges.

Thirdly, continued non-transparency and corruption in the energy sector, as evidenced by the return of Yuri Boiko as Minister for Fuel and Energy. Boiko’s links to the non-transparent, corrupt intermediary Rosukrenergo have never been in doubt.

In the 2007 elections Rosukrenergo majority shareholder Dmytro Firtash’s representatives are in the Regions’ list. Of the major parties likely to enter parliament this year only the Regions are in bed with Europe’s biggest money launderer, Rosukrernergo.

Fourthly, the return to non-transparent privatizations: Renat Akhmetov’s Donbas Fuel-Energy company, the energy arm of Systems Capital Management, was the only company effectively permitted to purchase shares in Dniproenergo, Ukraine’s largest thermoelectric generator.

The Odessa Portside Plant could be the next major strategic asset to be privatized by Regions’ oligarchs in such a brazenly corrupt manner.

The two Yanukovych governments in 2002-2004 and 2006-2007 have never undertaken any clean privatization tenders. Akhmetov’s and Viktor Pinchuk’s privatization of Dniproenergo resembles that of Kryvorizhstal in 2004.

As the Kyiv Post pointed out last month, BYuT is the only political force that has questioned Akhmetov’s takeover of Dniproenergo. The Tymoshenko government organized Ukraine’s only transparent privatization of Kryvorizhstal in fall 2004 when it obtained four times the value previously paid.

Fifthly, continued pursuit of undemocratic policies. The official reason for failing to initially register BYuT rested on a legally dubious claim of lack of full information provided by candidates in the BYuT list submitted to the CEC. BYuT retorted that the method of preparation of the list was exactly the same as that used for the March 2006 parliamentary elections.

The refusal to register BYuT throws into doubt the evolution of the Regions whose members on the CEC refused to register BYuT.

Since the 2004 elections Prime Minister Yanukovych and the Party of Regions have worked through political technologists and consultants towards changing their poor democratic image in the West by claiming their adherence to the international principles of Western democracy.

There is no evidence to show that the Yanukovych government and the Party of Regions are committed to four core principles: battling corruption, bringing transparency to the energy sector, holding clean privatizations and adhering to democratic norms and the constitutional balance of power.

Ukraine’s elections later this month give the country a chance to introduce policies that were demanded by the one in five Ukrainians who participated in the Orange Revolution three years ago.

These four core policies will never be implemented if the Yanukovych government and the Anti-Crisis coalition return to power after the elections. Ukraine needs real democrats and reformers in power who can only come from the orange camp.

Source: Kyiv Post

Surge In Roadway Accidents Detected

KIEV, Ukraine -- The number of traffic accidents in Ukraine has grown by more than a third in the last year and the number of deaths on the country’s roadways is up by nearly a quarter in year-on-year terms, according to the DAI State automotive inspection department – Ukraine’s traffic police.

Ukrainian drivers are some of the most obnoxious in the world, especially the ones with expensive foreign cars.
Experts point to growing personal incomes, which have resulted in more cars on the country’s roadways, flaws in traffic regulations and Ukrainians’ post-Soviet mentality as reasons for the rising number of smash-ups.

DAI head Alexei Kalinskiy said that accidents are up by 34.8 percent during the first eight months of this year to more than 163,000 compared to 120,000 recorded during the same period in 2006.

Accidents that saw victims sustain injuries were up 21.7 percent year-on-year, while fatalities grew by 22.9 percent from 4,425 deaths in 2006 to 5,596 in 2007.

Foreigners have been involved in 2,700 car accidents since the year began, resulting in 900 injuries and 135 deaths.

According to a July report issued by Kyiv city prosecutors, there are about 200 collisions in the capital every day.

Kalinskiy said the number of DAI traffic police has been bolstered by 4,600 additional staff to deal with the growing number of accidents.

Finding the cause

Minister of Internal Affairs Vasyl Tsushko said that the DAI no longer hide statistics, which explains the rise in reported traffic accidents. The traffic police forms part of the ministry, which Tsushko, a Socialist leader came to head in December of last year.

Kalinskiy pointed to an imperfect legislative base as a factor contributing to the larger accident toll.

He said that traffic fines ranging from Hr 14-34 ($3.5-$7) are simply too small to increase discipline on the roads. Kalinskiy said that two draft laws were submitted to parliament since 2006, but legislators failed to consider them before the president dismissed parliament.

In addition, the fines could previously be taken by DAI inspectors on the spot, but by the new rules, to take a fine from a driver, a protocol needs to be filled out at a police station, which in reality happens rarely and causes more recklessness on the roads.

Kalinskiy said that he was involved in developing one of the legislative bills, which would introduce a point system in Ukraine. According to the proposal, drivers would lose two points for driving without a seatbelt, eight for driving without a license and 10 if caught driving while intoxicated.

If a driver accumulates 30 or more points over the course of a year, he or she would have to answer before the courts and face a minimum fine of Hr 510 (around $100). Repeat offenders would see their licenses revoked.

The DAI also pointed to the growing number of vehicles on the country’s roadways and insufficient driver training. According to DAI statistics, drivers with less than five years experience behind the wheel are involved in the greatest number of accidents.

The director of a Kyiv driving school, who wished to remain anonymous, told the Post that drivers typically start to bend and break the rules after three years of driving experience, because they begin to feel more confident.

Another problem is that many schools reduce the number of lessons to make it cheaper and more attractive for clients, while the necessary minimum is 15 classes.

This year saw a spike in prices for driving schools. Last year, driving courses cost from Hr 700 to Hr 1,000 ($140-200), while the price has risen to between Hr 1,000 to Hr 2,000 ($200-400). Depending on the school and the car, a lesson behind the wheel costs from Hr 50 to 100 ($10-20).

The director said that there is also a generational problem. Youth today are more aware that any legal document, such as a diploma and license, can be purchased easily with enough money.

A Post inquiry determined that drivers’ licenses can be purchased in Kyiv without any training for $100 to $300, depending on how quickly a buyer wants the permit.

Dark side of economic success

The chief economist at the Kyiv-based International Center of Trend Research (ICTR), Eugenia Akhtyrko, agreed that imperfect traffic regulations contribute to the growing number of accidents.

“The lack of a strong legislative base in this field results in a significant level of corruption and makes it almost impossible to punish a person for a traffic violation,” she said, adding that economic factors also contribute to the situation, although not to the same extent.

Akhtyrko said that rising personal incomes have resulted in increased purchasing power and consumer activity. More people can afford a car today compared with several years ago. ICTR statistics showed that the average wage of Hr 1,225 ($243) in the first six months of 2007 was up by 12.3 percent year-on-year. Three years ago, the average wage stood at Hr 590 ($117).

According to ICTR data, the State Statistics Committee reported that automotive sales stood at Hr 19.2 billion (more than $3.8 billion) in 2006, up by nearly 15 percent over the previous year.

Kyiv-based Auto Consulting reported that 371,000 cars were sold in 2006 for 4.6 billion euros, which indicates a 40 percent growth over the previous year and earns Ukraine ninth place in Europe in terms of new car sales.

Auto-Consulting director Oleh Omelnitskiy said that 25 percent growth is expected in 2007, with 250,000 new cars already sold this year. He said that between 490,000 and 500,000 cars will be sold by the end of the year. In 2005 that figure stood at 265,000 automobiles.

Omelnitskiy noted that the country’s emerging middle class is moving away from “Soviet” brand cars such as the Lada ($7,000 to $10,000) to moderately priced imports, such as Chevrolet, Daewoo and Toyota, ranging in price from $12,000 to $38,000.

Growing demand for more expensive cars can also be explained by an increase in consumer crediting for automobile purchases.

“The rise in car purchases in Ukraine can also be explained by the increase of auto crediting, which in turn often takes place due to the high and extreme increase in prices for real estate. Many of those who planned to purchase an apartment on credit several years ago now realize they can’t afford one and switch over to cars,” explained ICTR economist Olexander Zholud.

He said that Hr 21.4 billion (nearly $4.3 billion) in credits for automobile purchases were extended last year, more than double the Hr 10 billion ($2 billion) banks offered in 2005.

Source: Kyiv Post

Study: Half Of Citizens Give Bribes

KIEV, Ukraine -- According to a recent poll, every second Ukrainian has given a bribe this year. Bribery is down three percent compared to 2006, but experts say that demanding and making informal cash payments has become an integral part of Ukraine’s post-Soviet culture.

Bribery is a way of life in Ukraine and a century-old Soviet tradition.
Analysts said low wages and light penalties bolster the phenomenon.

The survey of 2,000 adult respondents was conducted earlier this month by the Kyiv-based Institute of Social and Political Psychology (ISPP).

ISPP found that in 2006 slightly over 50 percent of respondents admitted to giving bribes, while 47 percent have admitted to doing so this year.

Institute deputy director Lyubov Naydyonova said that 2007 bribery admissions were most frequent in the country’s western and central regions (including Kyiv), where 54 and 53.5 percent of respondents admitted to offering a bribe.

The study found this figure stood at 40 percent in the east and 37.5 percent in the south of the country.

Nearly a third of respondents admitted to paying off medical workers (down five percent year-on-year), followed by teachers and professors (down 17 percent) and traffic police (down 13 percent).

Naydyonova noted that the bribery of doctors and teachers is gradually falling as higher wages introduce financial stability. She said that bribing tax police is down because of stricter controls within the state tax administration. She said that bribing traffic police is up by more than half a percent year-on-year.

Bribery up in Kyiv

The head of the Kyiv city police department on combating bribery Oleh Kotlyar said that the capital’s police have handed 90 bribery cases to the courts this year, while the total number of cases in 2006 was 85.

Last year, police cracked down on bribery dealings worth Hr 1.3 million (just over $200,000), while this year the number has already grown to Hr 1.9 million ($315,000).

So far this year, seven cases have involved sums greater than $50,000; bribes ranged from $10,000-$25,000 in ten of the cases. Fifteen cases involve government officials, while another 15 involve educators and four bribery cases have been uncovered in medical establishments.

About Hr 11 million ($2.1 million) worth of bribes dealings were uncovered nationwide in 2007, according to deputy minister of internal affairs Mykhailo Kornienko.

In a recent statement Kornienko said that police managed to uncover only one in every eight incidents of bribery. He said that between 60 and 70 percent of all bribery activity falls within the business sector where the sums paid out are growing with each passing year.

A doctored medical report can cost between $20 and $60, university entrance can be secured by paying between $1,000 and $4,000 (depending on the school) and land permits run up to $10,000.

Light penalties

Andrey Osipov, the president of the Kyiv-based Corruption Counteraction Committee (CCC), said that bribery is not falling and many people will never admit to making under-the-table payments.

For the past three years his organization has provided legal services to plaintiffs in corruption-related court cases. He said that requests for legal assistance for corruption-related court cases have recently grown.

“Ukrainian laws are unclear and slippery, people can hardly protect their rights legally, so they look for workarounds and often the only way to solve the problem is to give a bribe. Moreover the penalties for bribery are rather light in Ukraine – in most cases a fine. It is easier to pay a bribe to someone you know has taken one before,” Osipov said mockingly.

According to the Criminal Code, the fine for receiving bribes ranges from between 750 and 1,500 untaxed monthly minimum wages. With minimum wages at Hr 440, the amounts range from Hr 330,000 ($65,350) to Hr 660,000 ($130,700).

The fines for offering bribes are somewhat lower at 200 to 500 hundred minimum monthly salaries. Prison sentences for receiving and giving bribes range from two to five years.

Deep-rooted tradition

Naydyonova said that the “bribery tradition” is deeply-rooted in local mentality and is encouraged by financial instability.

Naydyonova said the number of offered bribes will fall as wages rise, but cautioned that that the tradition of giving extra presents is deeply-rooted.

Her institute’s poll found that 40 percent of respondents considered bribe-giving as acceptable, as long as the sums are not exorbitant.

Thirteen percent said that bribery is in keeping with good tradition, while slightly more (13.5 percent) said that bribery is unacceptable.

“Bribes have been an element of the country’s culture already for many years. Its origins are in the eastern culture, as even in ancient times there was a tradition to give additional ‘presents’ for certain services.”

“This was reinforced in Ukraine because people understand that certain essential professions (doctors, teachers) are insufficiently rewarded,” she explained.

Osipov says that the culture of bribery began to take root after the revolution of 1917, when the entire state’s structure was ruined.

“Before 1917 the state structure was quite strong and we were third in the world according the economical development. The Soviet system failed to create a strong economy and adequate laws, resulting in permanent financial, economical and political instability and insecurity. Thus emerged the custom to solve problems with the help of bribes, in other words our mentality,” said the CCC president.

Source: Kyiv Post

Commerzbank Buys 60% Of Ukraine's Bank Forum

FRANKFURT, Germany -- Commerzbank AG said it bought a 60% stake in Ukraine's privately controlled Bank Forum for $600 million, in a move to strengthen its position in Central and Eastern Europe.

Commerzbank tower headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany.
The German bank also affirmed its earlier outlook over exposure to the risky subprime market and potential charges.

Commerzbank, which has a strong focus on midsize German companies and has made several purchases in Central and Eastern Europe, said it has an option to buy as much as 25% more of Bank Forum after 36 months.

The Ukrainian bank has about 12,000 corporate customers, of which 9,500 are small and midsize businesses. The bank has 230,000 retail customers.

"This represents another step in our strategy of selective acquisitions to grow within our target regions," said Martin Blessing, a Commerzbank board member responsible for banking with midsize firms.

Commerzbank already has a 26% share in the settlement of German-Ukrainian foreign-trade transactions, via its Kiev office. The acquisition makes Commerzbank the first German bank to have an operational presence in Ukraine.

In the past five years, bank assets have grown at an average rate of more than 50% in Ukraine, though market penetration of banking services remains comparatively low, suggesting "significant growth potential," Commerzbank said.

Bank Forum was founded in 1994 and has assets totaling about €1.4 billion ($1.9 billion), making it the 10th-largest bank in Ukraine.

It has a market share of 2.3% and about 230 branches, with that number to be increased to 400 in the next four years.

The transaction will be financed through existing financial resources, Commerzbank said. The stake Commerzbank is purchasing and the additional 25% option are held by Leonid Yurushev and his family.

Commerzbank said the deal is subject to the customary regulatory approvals.

Separately, Commerzbank said it is sticking to the forecast it gave in July regarding its subprime-market exposure and projected charges, a spokesman said yesterday in response to media reports that its exposure could be higher than expected.

Commerzbank said in July that its exposure to subprime amounted to €1.2 billion, for which it would take an €80 million charge, half in the second quarter and the rest in the third quarter.

Releasing second-quarter results in August, Chief Financial Officer Eric Strutz said "subprime is not a major issue for Commerzbank."

He also said the bank is monitoring markets carefully and that it is prepared for any developments. "I don't want to underestimate the subprime crisis, but we don't think it will stop us from continuing on our profitable path," Mr. Strutz said.

Investors are getting increasingly concerned that banks will reveal higher exposure to subprime than previously estimated with the release of third-quarter results.

Commerzbank shares rose 1.8% to €27.39 in Frankfurt trading.

Source: Wall Street Journal

NATO And Ukraine: At The Crossroads

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- Ukraine finds itself at a crossroads in its relations with NATO. One path could lead to membership and offers Ukraine the prospect of becoming a westward-looking European state, protected against threats to its sovereignty and national security.

Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko (L), meets with NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer (R)
The second path may lead Ukraine to renounce its Euro-Atlantic integration aspirations, with less certain outcomes. While a promising start was made on the road to NATO membership in the wake of the Orange Revolution, the process has since slowed due to the political uncertainties in Ukraine that surfaced with the March 2006 parliamentary elections and the formation of a new government.

What is at stake?

NATO membership would be in the Ukrainian strategic interest and also represents a major societal choice. It would provide solid guarantees for the preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty, national identity and territorial integrity, while helping to consolidate and continue Ukraine’s democratic reforms.

Further progress towards meeting Euro-Atlantic democratic standards would also protect and encourage mainstream and minority cultural development, as well as the evolution of Ukrainian civil society.

The alternative to Euro-Atlantic integration lies in Eurasia with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which is currently characterised by authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes, grey economies and marginalised or underdeveloped civil societies.

Taking this path would be welcomed by those who view Ukraine’s independence as being counter to Russia’s vital geopolitical interests and its efforts to restore its great power status.

Ukraine’s interest in Euro-Atlantic integration has led to closer cooperation with the Alliance. However, any future accession of Ukraine to the Alliance will ultimately depend on the ability of the country to meet membership criteria, and on the domestic political will to move forward.

Walking the path

The first declaration of Ukraine’s intent to increase its integration in Euro-Atlantic structures was made ten years ago in the 1997 NATO-Ukraine Charter on a Distinctive Partnership, which established the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC) and identified areas for consultation and cooperation.

However, cooperation with a view to furthering Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration goals was given a sharper focus with the adoption of the NATO-Ukraine Action Plan in November 2002.

The Action Plan aims to deepen and broaden the NATO-Ukraine relationship and to support Ukraine’s reform efforts on the road towards full integration in Euro-Atlantic structures. It sets out specific objectives, covering political and economic issues; security, defence and military issues; information issues; and legal issues.

These objectives are supported by Annual Target Plans in which Ukraine sets its own targets for the activities it intends to pursue both internally and in cooperation with NATO.

The Action Plan itself will not lead directly to membership. However, its successful implementation is regarded as a precursor to an invitation to join NATO’s Membership Action Plan, and would help Ukraine move towards meeting the requirements expected of a candidate for NATO membership.

The Orange Revolution brought in under President Viktor Yushchenko a new Ukrainian leadership, which put NATO accession at the top of its foreign policy priorities. This led the Allies to invite Ukraine to start an Intensified Dialogue on its membership aspirations and related reforms at the NUC meeting of foreign ministers in Vilnius, Lithuania, in April 2005.

The aim of this dialogue is to give Ukrainian officials the opportunity to learn more about what would be expected of Ukraine as a potential member of the Alliance, while simultaneously letting NATO examine Ukrainian reforms and capabilities.

In parallel with the launch of the Intensified Dialogue, the Ukrainian and Allied foreign ministers agreed a package of short-term actions to help Ukraine in moving the reform process forward. This package covered a range of areas, including strengthening democratic institutions, enhancing political dialogue, intensifying defence and security sector reforms, managing the social and economic consequences of reform, and improving public information.

To improve the internal coordination of Ukraine’s implementation of activities agreed in the framework of NATO-Ukraine cooperation, on 27 December 2005 President Viktor Yushchenko signed a decree in which deputy heads of the central executive authorities were assigned specific responsibilities.

The president tasked the Cabinet of Ministers to strengthen cooperation between the executive authorities and the parliament, giving priority to relations with NATO and to public promotion of the benefits this cooperation brings to Ukraine.

Towards a Membership Action Plan

In January 2006, the defence ministers of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, meeting in Budapest, Hungary, announced that their countries were ready to support Ukraine on its path to NATO accession.

Hungarian Defence Minister Ferenc Yukhas stated after the quadrilateral meeting that “we believe it is an important task for us to help Ukraine on its way to integration and accession to NATO.” The four countries announced that they would organise a special committee to promote Ukrainian military reform.

A month later, in February 2006, President Viktor Yushchenko reiterated in Brussels, Belgium, that Ukraine was ready to join the Membership Action Plan (MAP). In March, he followed this up with a decree setting up an interagency commission to prepare Ukraine for NATO accession.

This body can set up task forces to deal with specific directions of cooperation between Ukraine and NATO, and is chaired by the relevant national coordinators.

The National Security and Defence Council is responsible for defining the strategic goals and conceptual approaches to Ukraine-NATO cooperation and submitting relevant proposals to the President.

The Cabinet of Ministers is responsible for implementing the national policy of Ukraine-NATO cooperation, in particular with regard to the fulfilment of membership criteria.

Participation in the MAP would allow Ukraine to prepare better for NATO accession through technical assistance and practical advice from NATO. It would not, however, guarantee any future membership in the Alliance – such an invitation would depend on the country’s ability to meet membership criteria.

In the MAP framework, Annual National Programmes are developed which focus on a number of requirements for aspirant countries, including in the political, economic, resource, legal and security fields.

Aspirant countries are expected to demonstrate a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy; fair treatment of minority populations; commitment to the peaceful resolution of disputes with neighbours; the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to the Alliance; and a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and structures.

In March 2006, Ukrainian Defence Minister Anatoliy Grytsenko expressed the opinion that if Ukraine works effectively to meet these requirements, and the Allies agree, “the decision on granting membership to Ukraine could be taken in the nearest future.

Ukraine will be granted a transition period to finish its preparatory work, which is about a year and a half or two years… That’s why full-fledged membership is possible by 2010, but it is only a forecast. Life may bring changes into it.”

Of course, one of the current major hurdles to Ukraine’s joining the MAP is significant public reluctance to move further – according to opinion polls, only some 20 per cent of the population actually support NATO membership, whereas some 54 per cent are opposed.

Outdated and counterproductive stereotypes about NATO still hold sway over many in Ukraine. However, the Defence Minister also expressed confidence that by the time Ukraine has to make a decision on NATO accession, the public will be ready to support such a step.

A change of pace

By holding a free and fair democratic parliamentary election in March 2006, Ukraine successfully passed a key test for NATO membership. So it is ironic that the result of that election has been a significant slow-down in the pace of progress towards that goal.

It took months of political turmoil for a new government to be formed. During this time, anti-NATO sentiments among the population were exploited for political gain, provoking demonstrations against the US-Ukrainian Sea Breeze exercise in the summer of 2006.

The “Anti-Crisis Coalition” that eventually emerged, with Viktor Yanukovych as Prime Minister, put the brakes on moves toward NATO membership and made improving relations with Russia a priority.

Visiting NATO Headquarters in September, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych reassured Allies that Ukraine was committed to developing closer relations to NATO through ongoing cooperation. But he said that the Ukrainian people were not yet ready for Ukraine to consider joining the Membership Action Plan and that the issue of membership would eventually have to be put to a referendum.

He did, however, promise that the Ukrainian government would launch a major public information campaign to explain NATO and its cooperation with Ukraine.

Meanwhile, President Yuschenko has continued to push for NATO membership. But there is no doubt that under the Anti-Crisis Coalition we have seen not just a change in pace in relations with NATO, but also a change in the language used. Political leaders tend to refer to “cooperation” with NATO rather than to “integration”.

Stirring things up further, Russia itself has warned Ukraine of potential costs of joining NATO. During his visit to Kyiv, in December 2006, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov, while recognising the “sovereign right of Ukraine to choose major vectors of its security policy”, warned of the “negative consequences of Ukraine’s accession to NATO” on relations with Russia.

Clearly, the political uncertainties in Ukraine over the past year and the ongoing rift between the camps of the President and the Prime Minister have had an impact on the level of cooperation with NATO.

This was manifest in the delay in finalising this year’s Annual Target Plan, which was only approved by the Cabinet of Ministers and sent to the President for signature in early June.

At the crossroads

So Ukraine finds itself at a crossroads in its relations with NATO. The key question is how close the country will get to actual NATO membership. This will largely depend on the ability of the authorities – and society at large – to preserve the gains of the Orange Revolution and to further develop democratic structures and practices in the country.

Time will tell how important basic democratic values are for the Anti-Crisis parliamentary majority. If they really share these values, the time it takes for Ukraine to join NATO will be no longer than the time needed to achieve Euro-Atlantic standards and to reach consensus at the national level.

As Defence Minister Anatoliy Grytsenko stated in an October 2006 interview: “Ukraine has not lost its chance to move forward and join the Alliance… How long it will take, depends, first of all, on the level of coordination of our authorities. Second, it depends on our desire to build a country that meets NATO standards. And third, it depends on the will and determination of key political players in our country to support NATO accession.”

For all of this to happen, it is clear that civil society will have to work closely with government, parliament and other relevant political actors. It is also essential that a broad public information campaign should be launched to raise awareness of the benefits of NATO-Ukraine cooperation and potential membership.

There are plenty of good stories to tell about the practical benefits of ongoing cooperation with NATO. Since 1994, NATO and individual Allies have provided professional military training to some 8 500 Ukrainian officers.

Moreover, between 2001 and 2006, NATO has supported the retraining of over 3 000 retired Ukrainian military personnel to help their transition to civilian life.

In 2006 alone, nearly 800 servicemen were retrained, and 440 have already found new jobs. Since 2006, new professional courses have been launched for former military personnel in Kirovohrad, Melitopol, Chernihiv and Lviv. And language courses are ongoing in Odessa, Kyiv and Simferopol.

Another good example is the support that individual Allies are giving to demilitarisation projects in Ukraine through Partnership for Peace (PfP) Trust Fund projects. These projects are helping Ukraine deal with its huge stockpiles of surplus and obsolete munitions, which pose a major security risk to local populations.

A first project, launched in Donetsk in 2002 while Viktor Yanukovych was governor there, safely destroyed 400 000 anti-personnel landmines. A second project – the largest single demilitarisation project of its kind in the world – aims to destroy 133 000 tons of conventional munitions, 1.5 million small arms and light weapons, and 1 000 man-portable air defence systems over twelve years – at a total estimated cost of €25 million.

Highlighting these kinds of initiatives to the Ukrainian public would go some way to overcoming the Cold War stereotypes about NATO that remain prevalent. That may encourage people to learn more about what NATO is today.

Ukraine is likely to remain stuck at the crossroads for a while. With another parliamentary election now scheduled for September, no clarity on the way forward is likely to emerge soon. In this climate, NATO remains a highly politicised issue in Ukraine.

Nevertheless, I remain hopeful that a recent statement by NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer may come true. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in February 2007, he expressed his desire to see Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine move closer to the Alliance by the time of the NATO Summit in 2009. “The Ukrainian people will have to decide for themselves. Nevertheless, I hope in 2009 we’ll see a stronger relationship with Ukraine.”

Source: NATO Review

Trends And Opinion Polls Reveal Shifting Voter Preferences In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine’s parliamentary elections on September 30 are unlikely to bring overwhelming victories for either the “orange” camp of Our Ukraine-Self Defense and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc or the “blue” camp of the Party of Regions.

Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc campaign tour in Poltava, Ukraine region.
Ukraine’s regional and linguistic divide makes such a landslide unlikely; instead, both camps will remain in the 45-55% range. Nevertheless, there are trends that do reflect changes in electoral geography and voter intentions.

Ukraine’s regionalism means that no political force has country-wide support. Thus the winning side in a Ukrainian election is unable to put the other side out of business, making it impossible to institute an autocracy.

A narrow win for either camp precludes the formation of a huge parliamentary majority. In addition, the defeated camp will be in a position to establish a powerful opposition bloc with, at a minimum, 45% of the seats in parliament.

As thresholds make it more difficult for many parties to win seats in parliament, the political field has consolidated into a limited number of parties and blocs. Twenty parties and blocs are registered this year, down from 45 in 2006.

Ukraine’s 3% threshold for parties and blocs to enter parliament is the lowest in Europe and Eurasia. Nevertheless, it has not led to a large influx of small parties into parliament. Eight groups received seats in 1998, six groups in 2002, and only five last year.

Left-leaning parties, which dominated politics in the 1990s, have dwindled and only the Communist Party (KPU) is likely enter parliament this fall. The Socialist Party (SPU), won four parliamentary elections between 1994-2006, but its current popularity stands at 1-2%.

The KPU has fallen from 24.65% in the 1998 to 3.66% last year. Support for the far-left Progressive Socialist Party, which last won a seat 1998, has declined to less than 2%.

The 2007 elections are also changing Ukraine’s electoral geography. The Yulia Tymoshenko bloc (BYuT), which came second in a majority of eastern and southern Ukrainian districts in 2006, is replacing the left as a viable alternative to the Party of Regions in these districts.

The Party of Regions will likely still take first place in eastern and southern Ukrainian districts, but by a smaller margin and therefore taking fewer seats than in last year’s elections. BYuT is particularly growing in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and even the Crimea.

After Tymoshenko’s rally in Kharkiv earlier this month, one poll gave BYuT a narrow lead over the Party of Regions in that key oblast.

Our Ukraine-Self Defense (NUNS) remains unable to break out of its western Ukrainian base, and polls show that it has barely improved on last year’s poor performance of 14%.

The Party of Regions leads in all polls, but this does not guarantee that it will head a majority coalition and government. Three out of four recent polls show the two orange forces beating the Party of Regions. Still-undecided voters tend to be from the orange camp and they could still improve orange results.

Polls show a narrowing gap between the Party of Regions and BYuT, which finished first and second last year, respectively. The Kyiv-based Concorde Capital reported that the Party of Regions has 26-28% and BYuT 20-26%. The gap between them last year was 10% and is now narrowing to 5-7%.

A poll by the T. Shevchenko Political and Sociological Institute gave only a 1% lead to the Party of Regions over BYuT. Therefore, Ukrainian analysts believe Yulia Tymoshenko is poised to head of the next government.

Polls show that three political forces will enter parliament: Party of Regions, NUNS, and BYuT. They may be joined by the KPU and former speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s bloc.

But should a fifth political force enter parliament it would prevent the Party of Regions from increasing from its current 186 seats to half of the seats (225) available. It would be in the Party of Regions’ interest for fewer parties and blocs to enter parliament, leaving more seats to be distributed via the proportional system.

The Lytvyn bloc and BYuT are likely to pick up disaffected SPU voters in central Ukraine. The SPU has lost voters after it defected from the orange camp in summer 2006 and joined the Party of Regions and KPU in the Anti-Crisis coalition and the government of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

After the 2006 elections the SPU held a swing vote, enabling the creation of a coalition not dominated by the orange (Our Ukraine, BYuT) or blue (Party of Regions, KPU) camps.

The Lytvyn bloc could again be the spoiler this year. The bloc’s allegiances remain unclear. Lytvyn was head of the presidential administration from 1999-2002 and headed the pro-Leonid Kuchma “For a United Ukraine bloc” in 2002.

During the 2004 elections and Orange Revolution Lytvyn sat on the fence and maintained good relations with both the orange and blue camps. As speaker, Lytvyn kept parliament open and facilitated the motion that declared Yanukovych the winner.

While President Viktor Yushchenko and his business allies have always had good relations with Lytvyn, relations with BYuT are poor. Therefore, the Lytvyn bloc could be courted by both the Party of Regions and NUNS.

This year’s elections are likely to give the orange camp its second slim majority. Time will tell if they again fail to use it, as they did last year.

Source: Eurasia Daily Monitor

US$505 Million Contract For Building New Chernobyl Protective Shelter Signed

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainian officials signed a US$505 million (€364 million) contract with a French-led consortium Monday for construction of a new shelter for the Chernobyl reactor, the site of the word's worst nuclear accident.

France's Foreign Trade Minister Herve Novelli (R) and VINCI Chairman Yves-Thibault De Silguy pose in front of the sarcophagus covering the damaged fourth reactor of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Chernobyl, 100 km (62 miles) north of Kiev September 17, 2007. Ukraine signed two deals with Western firms to build a new encasement and store spent nuclear fuel.
The project, financed by an international fund managed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, will be designed and built by the French-led consortium Novarka, which includes the companies Bouygues SA and Vinci SA.

The new shelter — an arch-shaped steel structure 345 feet (105 meters) tall and 490 feet (150 meters) long — will enclose the concrete sarcophagus erected hastily after the 1986 accident. That structure has been crumbling and leaking radiation for more than a decade.

"I am convinced that today, possibly for the first time, we can frankly tell the national and international community that the answer to the problem of sheltering the Chernobyl nuclear plant was found today," President Viktor Yushchenko said at the signing ceremony, according to the presidential Web site.

The plan is to eventually dismantle the sarcophagus and the exploded reactor inside the new shelter. Chernobyl's reactor No. 4 exploded on April 26, 1986, spewing radiation over a large swath of the former Soviet Union and much of northern Europe. An area roughly half the size of Italy was contaminated, forcing the resettlement of hundreds of thousands of people.

Ukraine has repeatedly asked for money from the European Union and other Western sources to fund a new shelter.

Anton Usov, a spokesman for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said it will take about 1 1/2 years to design the shelter and another four to build it.

The entire project of sheltering the reactor, which began in 1997 and also includes strengthening the existing sarcaphagus, monitoring radiation and training experts, is estimated at US$1.39 billion (€1 billion), Usov said.

Officials also signed a $200 million (€144 million) contract with the New Jersey-based Holtec International for decomissioning the power plant. The project includes building a storage facility for spent nuclear fuel from the plant's three other reactors, which kept operating until the station was shut down in 2000.

That undertaking is also financed by international donors in a fund managed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

"The successful implementation of the project depends not only on the progress of the construction work, but also on the continued commitment of both the Ukrainian authorities and the international community," EBRD President Jean Lemierre said in a statement.

In the first two months after the disaster, 31 people died from illnesses caused by radioactivity, but there is heated debate over the subsequent toll.

A 2005 report from the U.N. health agency estimated that about 9,300 people will die from cancers caused by Chernobyl's radiation. Some groups, such as Greenpeace, insist the toll could be 10 times higher

Source: International Herald Tribune

Orange Princess Tackles The Two Viktors In Fight To ‘Save The Revolution’

BILA TSERKVA, Ukraine -- Alone on a stage facing a crowd of 5,000 people, Yuliya Tymoshenko cut an isolated figure, the eye of a storm that is her election campaign to become Ukraine’s next Prime Minister.

Yulia Tymoshenko on the campaign trail in Bila Tserkva, Ukraine.
Immaculate in an ivory suit, her hair wound in its trademark peasant halo, she railed for an hour against the corruption that blights Ukraine’s economy and political life.

As she spoke screens flashed pictures of the two Viktors who form, with her, the country’s three-way struggle for power — Prime Minister Yanukovych, her principal adversary, and President Yushchenko, her former partner in the Orange Revolution that promised democracy and prosperity.

The subliminal message was clear: three years on, the revolution of 2004 has been betrayed by weak leadership and an unholy alliance of oligarchs and self-serving ministers. Only Yuliya has kept the Orange faith.

Ms Tymoshenko has always brought firebrand glamour to Ukraine’s politics, but an added element of granite is visible now in her single-minded determination to return to power two years after Mr Yushchenko dismissed her as Prime Minister on national television.

That event signalled an acrimonious split in the Orange coalition that allowed Mr Yanukovych’s Party of the Regions to form a Government after parliamentary elections last year.

His attempts to recruit opposition lawmakers to create a majority big enough to change the constitution and strip Mr Yushchenko of power triggered the political crisis in April when the President dissolved parliament and called early elections.

Ms Tymoshenko, 46, was nicknamed the “gas princess” in the 1990s after earning a fortune in Ukraine’s energy industry. She has transformed herself in this election into a populist scourge of venal billionaires and a champion of ordinary Ukrainians.

Her message plays well in a country where the average salary is $200 (£99) a month. She avoids accusations of rabble-rousing by pointing to a “Contract with Investors” signed at a meeting with 300 industrialists last week that promised transparent privatisations and a level playing field for business.

Her speech at the rally in Bila Tserkva, a bleak industrial city 90km (56 miles) south of Kiev, was heavy on detail but the crowd listened attentively. Later that evening she was mobbed by people who had waited for two hours to seek autographs and take pictures.

Her voice has grown hoarse from campaigning for the September 30 poll, but her face betrays no hint of strain. A frantic schedule of public rallies has drawn large crowds, breeding confidence in her team that Ms Tymoshenko’s time has come.

“Every party leader believes that he is the best Prime Minister of Ukraine and I am no exception,” she told The Times, deflecting a question on whether she was ready to assume power.

Her image is everywhere, staring out from billboards urging voters to back Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko’s (BYuT) Ukrainian breakthrough reform programme. Supporters wear white T-shirts bearing her face or BYuT’s symbol of a red heart, underlining the notion that this is as much love affair as political movement.

The Orange camp has patched up its differences. Ms Tymoshenko has agreed with Our Ukraine, Mr Yushchenko’s party, to form a coalition government if they win a majority. Rumours persist, however, that the latter may cut a deal with Mr Yanukovych.

Ms Tymoshenko dismisses the threat, saying that Mr Yushchenko would be naïve to trust a man who was within weeks of impeaching him. She added: “I don’t think the President wants to go through that again.”

The pro-Russian Mr Yanukovych remains a formidable machine politician, who repeatedly emphasises the divisions between his opponents. “The question ‘do the voters believe that the Orange forces can work together?’ has an exclusively rhetorical character,” he told reporters.

The risk for Mr Yushchenko is that voters return a parliament unchanged from the one he dissolved. He told The Times that the elections would be a “detonator for radical changes”, but he needs Ms Tymoshenko to succeed if his gamble is to pay off.

Ms Tymoshenko remains polite about her former ally — who last week accused Russia of blocking the investigation into the plot to poison him with dioxins that ravaged his features — but many around her regard Mr Yushchenko as weak and indecisive.

Few doubt that she will challenge for the presidency in 2009 and she is making efforts to show her national appeal, spending most of her time pitching her pro-Western platform of EU and NATO membership into Mr Yanukovych’s power base in the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine, where many are nostalgic for the Soviet Union and close ties with Moscow.

“They want a decent way of life, but for 16 years [since independence] the country could not provide this. They have to feel that Ukraine is their home, and we will try to prove that to them,” she said.

Source: Times OnLine

Ukraine To Remember Dead Reporter

KIEV, Ukraine -- Hundreds of Ukrainians are expected to form a candlelit chain on Sunday to mark the anniversary of the murder of a prominent opposition journalist.

Mr Gongadze had been campaigning against government corruption, when he was brutally murdered.
Georgiy Gongadze was abducted in Kiev seven years ago. His headless body was later found buried in a forest.

The death triggered a major political scandal and became Ukraine's most high-profile murder case.

President Viktor Yushchenko said finding the killers was a top priority - but no-one has been convicted.

Mr Gongadze was an outspoken critic of the Ukrainian authorities at a time when there was little freedom of speech.

The president at the time, Leonid Kuchma, was said to be implicated in the case by secret tape recordings. He has always denied involvement.

Trial suspended

The case sparked mass protests that culminated in the Orange Revolution, leading to the election of Mr Yushchenko.

He pledged to solve the case, but it has proved to be extremely difficult.

A former interior minister who was considered to be a key witness was found dead hours before he was due to testify.

The prosecutor's office said he had committed suicide by shooting himself twice in the head.

Three former policemen have been charged with carrying out the killing of Mr Gongadze but their trial has been suspended indefinitely.

No-one has ever been charged with ordering the murder.

The seventh anniversary of Mr Gongadze's abduction and murder comes as Ukraine prepares for an early parliamentary election at the end of the month.

Many people are disappointed that the president has failed to bring the killers to justice.

Source: BBC News

Who Poisoned The President?

KIEV, Ukraine -- He came to power with a face freshly ravaged by dioxin and a burning need to know who, why and how it happened. As elections approach, leader's failure to resolve dioxin mystery symbolizes Ukrainians' frustration.

The dioxin ravaged face of Viktor Yushchenko
Today, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko is still promising answers. But the fact that the mystery prevails a full three years since the near-fatal attack stands as arguably the single most symbolic disappointment of his troubled leadership.

With Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party struggling in the polls barely two weeks before Sept. 30 parliamentary elections, the president has awakened interest in the stalled investigation with pointed comments aimed at Russia.

Yushchenko stopped short of explicitly accusing Russian authorities in the 2004 assassination attempt. But his comments implied the dioxin that found its way into his body originated in Russia, and that the Russian prosecutor general's office was protecting key Ukrainian suspects by ignoring extradition requests.

Russia responded rapidly to Yushchenko's comments, which were published Wednesday in the French newspaper Le Figaro and The Times of London.

In an initial outburst, Viktor Chernomyrdin, the Russian ambassador to Ukraine, told reporters in Kyiv that he was "really surprised" to hear Yushchenko's accusations.

"Why should we investigate it?" Chernomyrdin said. "You sort it out yourselves. You're always looking for someone hindering you."

But the following day, Moscow changed tack, announcing it would participate in a joint investigation with Ukraine. Simultaneously, Russian media outlets began publishing the names of the three main suspects in the case: Vladamir Satsyuk, Taras Zalessky and Alexey Poletukha.

Satsyuk's name has long been associated with the dioxin incident. It was during a dinner at the former deputy Ukrainian Security Service chief's country home on Sept. 5, 2004, that Yushchenko first fell ill.

Yushchenko suffered sleeplessness and a severe headache that night and by the next day new symptoms of pancreatitis and gastrointestinal pain arose.

Soon, he developed a facial rash, a condition later confirmed to indicate severe dioxin poisoning.

It's too early to say whether the week's developments constitute a turning point in a riddle that has long vexed Ukrainians.

Or whether the resumption of a long-stalled investigation will mitigate voter disappointment in Yushchenko, who swept to power during the 2004 pro-democracy non-violent uprising known as the Orange revolution.

"People just want to see justice done," said Roman Shwed, a Kyiv-based radio host. "And when Yushchenko was elected, he had the opportunity and the mandate to unleash the greatest show trial of Ukraine history.

"But he disappointed. And that disappointment was emblematic of all the other disappointments after the Orange revolution. Yushchenko spoke softly – but he forgot to carry the big stick."

Theories on why the investigation dragged on so long have helped sow doubts over Yushchenko's own party, one Western diplomat told the Star.

"Somebody has to go to jail for this and among the president's many mistakes is that nobody has yet paid the price. He had a country just waiting for heads to roll.

"But the oligarchic side blocked him. Why? One imagines that they took him aside and said, `Look, you are alive. You survived. So let it go. Because if you pursue this to the end, we will expose the corruption in your camp, too.'

"The reality in Ukraine is there are very few leaders around with nothing to be embarrassed about."

On the streets of Kyiv, not everyone expects answers.

Said one passerby, linguistics student Maxim Hovanchuk, 20: "The answer to Yushchenko's poisoned face is in the dark. It is not normal for a country not to get answers. But for now, this is what passes for normal in Ukraine. In this country, you don't want to reach into the dark for answers. It can hurt you."

Retiree Mikhail Lazarev, on the other hand, ascribed the President's disfigurement to "the work of God. His Orange revolution was against the scriptures and God made him pay for it.

"He entered a church strong as a bull three years ago and he came out with his face on fire. That is how it happened."

Others forgive Yushchenko for his government's lack of investigative rigour when it comes to the president's own troubles.

But they wonder about the stalled investigations into other human rights violations in Ukraine, most notably the unsolved Sept. 16, 2000, murder of investigative journalist Gyorgy Gongadze.

Gongadze's decapitated body was discovered in a forest near Kyiv and one month later recordings emerged on which a voice resembling that of then-president Leonid Kuchma was heard conspiring against the journalist.

The case galvanized Ukraine's political opposition, helping build momentum toward the Orange revolution.

Yushchenko himself staked claim to the Gongadze file upon taking office, calling it "a matter of honour for me and my team."

Three former Ukrainian interior ministry officers eventually were arrested and charged with Gongadze's murder. A trial was launched last year, but the case has since been frozen, pending psychological evaluation of the defendants.

Ukraine's handling of the case prompted the European Court of Human Rights in 2005 to raise serious doubts about the investigation, ruling that authorities were "more preoccupied with proving the lack of involvement of high-level state officials than by discovering the truth."

And even as Yushchenko was pointing a finger at Moscow, press freedom watchdogs were pointing theirs at Yushchenko. The International Federation of Journalists singled out the Ukrainian president for awarding a state medal to former prosecutor general Mykhail Potebenko.

Gongadze is known to have appealed to Potebenko in the days prior to his murder when he realized he was being followed, but the prosecutor ignored his plea.

Source: Toronto Star

Promises, But No Change In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- Perfect day, perfect script, perfect candidate. With 50,000 supporters on hand and her fiery words vowing war against all that ails Ukraine, the day has all the makings of a campaign triumph for Yulia Tymoshenko.

The fiery Yulia Tymoshenko
Looking every inch the modern-day Joan of Arc, with a flowing white gown and a ubiquitous halo of braids, opposition leader Tymoshenko begins a torrent of invective, laying down the gantlet of reform.

Perfect. Except this is Ukraine's fourth election in three years and Ukrainians have about had it with promises.

And the politicians who make them, only to break them.

As Tymoshenko hectors without pausing for breath, apathy is apparent in the bored, dispassionate faces that suggest a rent-a-rally at Kyiv's central Maidan Square.

With Ukrainians bracing for yet another round of parliamentary polling Sept. 30, virtually all candidates find themselves up against a cold, angry and despairing electorate that appears to have lost the will to believe.

Analysts call the affliction "Orange fatigue," a reference to the headline-grabbing events of 2004, when a people-powered uprising saw hundreds of thousands converge on the Maidan in a bona fide plea for Western-style democracy.

Tymoshenko was a hero of the so-called Orange revolution, going on to become prime minister. But it was President Viktor Yushchenko who became the international face of the movement, albeit one disfigured by the poison dioxin in a savage attack administered by unnamed political enemies.

And for a time they forged a common cause, only to fall out spectacularly, leaving Ukraine with almost none of the change it was promised.

Three years later, Ukrainians seem lost in translation from the Soviet era to whatever normalcy is yet to come. But paradoxically, all predictions point to a high election turnout, with up to 72 per cent of voters likely to show at the polls, according to research by Kyiv's Horshenin Institute of Management.

"At the same time, our research shows 80 per cent of those same voters expect political promises to be broken and 67 per cent tell us the elections will not be free and fair," said Horshenin's chief political analyst, Host Bondarenko.

"One way to interpret these strange numbers is the sovok complex – the lingering inertia of the Soviet era, where people fear that they will be punished if they don't go to the polls.

"Another way to look at it is that Ukrainians want to safeguard their democracy by continuing to use it, even if they are disenchanted with this crop of leaders. The hope is that in the next 10 years, a new generation will come to power that has no memory of communism – and that will represent the leadership the people really want."

Orange itself, though still the colour of President Yushchenko's Our Ukraine movement, today operates two tiny tents, where stacks of campaign literature stand uncollected and unread by passersby. Shockingly, the sickle-and-hammer of the Communist party draws almost as much interest as does Yushchenko.

The agony of political paralysis comes as no surprise to Western diplomats, who have long argued that Ukraine was never so simple as the version presented to the world in 2004, when Orange was cast as the living embodiment of democracy and Blue as villainous stooges of Moscow.

Each camp, they will tell you, has its villains, up to and including ties to the billionaire oligarchs, meta-garchs and mini-garchs who have gobbled up the former Soviet republic's national assets – and most of the national media – with ravenous zeal since Ukraine attained independence 16 years ago.

And each camp is drawn in equal measure to Western business and political interests, driven by the overwhelming desire to legitimize fortunes of dubious origin through integration with the global economy.

Sullied by self-interest and interminable in-fighting, Ukraine's dominant political forces have squandered believability to the point where, in the words of one Kyiv-based diplomat, "there are very few untarnished good guys left in this story."

The bleak mood conjures the image of the archetypal Ukrainian politician as a magician pulling a never-ending handkerchief from a single pocket, with each square of the same cloth emerging in alternating colours – blue, orange, blue orange.

The lingering danger, said Bondarenko, is that Ukrainian disenchantment with the ruling political class will extend eventually to disenchantment with democracy itself. He cites his institute's polling numbers that show as many as one-third of Ukrainians would welcome a new dictatorship, so long as it provides an authoritarian answer to the issues of corruption.

"Western governments, Canada included, should be worried about this trend. Until now it is obvious they have wanted to play the midwife for democratic reform by placing their bets with personalities such as Yushchenko instead of the democratic institutions themselves," said Bondarenko.

"This was underscored by the needs of Washington, where George Bush was desperate to show that at least one of his bets for democracy can work. The lesson for the West is not to put their trust in leaders, but instead to help Ukraine achieve institutional reform."

Many commentators single out Yushchenko as their most bitter disappointment. His harshest critics accuse him of sleepwalking naively into a trap of his own making, initially by failing to act forcefully on the handsome mandate he earned in the immediately aftermath of the Orange uprising, and more recently, by cozying up in coalition with the arch-rival Party of Regions, only to watch the union fall apart in the constitutional wrangling that sparked these snap elections.

Yushchenko's more forgiving loyalists insist he remains a man of high-minded intentions who literally sacrificed his face for the cause, having suffered a disfiguring attack that remains unsolved three years after the fact.

Yushchenko, they say, is all but handcuffed by the geo-political fault lines that vex this country of 48 million people, where the primarily Russian-speaking eastern and southern regions remain hostile to his long-term ambitions to draw Ukraine into the European Union and NATO.

"I'm not concerned whether democracy is good or bad, whether Russia is good or bad, whether NATO is good or bad. I just want leaders who will put things in order to create a better future for my children," said Vitali Tarashenko, 36, an engineer and father of two in Kyiv.

Tarashenko, who marched on the Maidan three years ago in the public uprising for precisely such a future, said his disappointment today extends in all directions. He faults Russia and the West for "pulling levers" in a bid to manipulate Ukrainian politics. But mostly, he said, "We ourselves are to blame. This government did not come from Mars. We elected it.

"We were told the bandits would sit in prison and it never happened. Now we want to pull the levers of power ourselves, but there is no political force today able to do it.

"But with me, and with my friends, the spirit of the Maidan is inside us still. We have never taken a dirty kopek in our lives. All I can hope is that people like me will keep that faith. So that the country will wake up and insist on the leadership we deserve."

Source: Toronto Star

EU Calls For Stable Government In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- EU leaders on Friday urged Ukraine to use upcoming elections to end months of infighting and to quickly form a stable government capable of pushing ahead with reforms, as Kiev reiterated its hopes for EU membership.

President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko(L) listens to EU Foreign Policy chief Javier Solana, prior to the EU-Ukraine summit in Kiev. EU leaders on Friday urged Ukraine to use upcoming elections to end months of infighting and to quickly form a stable government capable of pushing ahead with reforms, as Kiev reiterated its hopes for EU membership.
Speaking at an annual EU-Ukrainian summit, European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso gave the forthcoming September 30 parliamentary elections a vote of confidence, saying "we are convinced that the elections will be organised in conformity with international standards."

But he added: "It is important to achieve stability for the Ukrainian government to concentrate its energy on reforms."

This view was echoed by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who also met separately with opposition leader Yulia Timoshenko. He stressed the importance of the "opportunity to have a government as quickly as possible."

Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko meanwhile said he expected the transition to a new government to go smoothly and reiterated his desire for the ex-Soviet republic of 46 million people to join the EU.

"I am sure that these things will be done quickly thanks to the election results," he said.

Locked between the EU on one side and Russia on the other, Ukraine has been rocked by drawn-out clashes between its pro-Western president and his bitter rival, Moscow-friendly Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

Yushchenko swept to power on the back of the 2004 "Orange Revolution", when hundreds of thousands of demonstrators filled the streets to protest a fraudulent vote that initially handed Yanukovych the presidency.

The new president was quickly plunged into a political crisis however, and last April he dissolved parliament after a prolonged battle with the pro-Russian majority that now runs the government.

Western critics meanwhile complain that the pace of reforms intended to liberalise Ukraine's economy has slowed.

Yushchenko and Yanukovych have agreed on the need to join the EU, but remain at odds on the more contentious issue of joining the NATO military alliance, with Yushchenko in favour and Yanukovych opposed.

Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates, whose country holds the EU's rotating presidency, offered words of encouragement at Friday's meeting, saying he was sure Ukraine would "achieve stability".

Many EU states however remain far from convinced that Ukraine would be a valuable addition to the bloc.

Friday's meeting was formally aimed at assessing progress on the creation of a new enhanced cooperation agreement between Ukraine and the union.

Solana said a new round of talks on the agreement would take place next month.

Kiev hopes that agreement will contain some signal that the country could be considered for membership of the bloc.

An existing partnership agreement expires next year.

The new accord is expected to address easing trade barriers after Ukraine joins the World Trade Organisation, which it hopes to do by the end of the year.

Easing visa regulations for Ukrainians to visit the rest of Europe was also discussed during the talks, Yushchenko said.

Source: AFP

EU Offers Ukraine Closer Ties To Brussels

KIEV, Ukraine -- A high-ranking European delegation visiting Kiev for a bilateral summit, on Friday urged Ukraine's leadership to break free of longstanding political turmoil promising stronger cooperation in return, but stopped short of offering EU membership to the troubled former Soviet republic.

A powerful EU "troika" - José Manuel Barroso (L), Benita Ferrero-Waldner (C) and Javier Solana (R)
The meeting was held at a crucial period for Ukraine, two weeks before snap parliamentary elections will gauge how much progress Kiev's fragile democracy has made since the Orange Revolution of 2004.

Political parties backing Kiev's pro-western president, Viktor Yushchenko, will battle for power with Viktor Yanukovich, the current premier and leader of a governing coalition viewed as loyal to Moscow interests.

The summit was attended by European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner and High Representative Javier Solana.

Ms Ferrero-Waldner said: "The mere fact that we have attended this summit two weeks ahead of the elections is a signal of trust from the EU in Ukraine and its democratic institutions. Hopefully the elections will be free and fair."

"We have a huge amount of issues" in the pipeline, she said pointing to an un-ratified agreement signed this summer aimed at relaxing Schengen visa access for Ukrainians.

Both sides are also to strengthen energy security cooperation and ink a free trade agreement to open up bilateral market access by 95 per cent, she said.

"We have gone very far with Ukraine." she added.

Trade between the EU and Ukraine has steadily increased, totalling €26.6 billion in 2006, making the EU one of Ukraine's leading trade partners.

Foreign Direct Investment from the EU into Ukraine swelled from €230m in 2003 topping €5.5 bn last year.

Mr Yushchenko has repeatedly called upon Brussels to provide a signal of his country's chances to join the union.

Ms Ferrero-Waldner said Ukraine was "not ready" and should focus on building democratic institutions and implementing reforms.

Source: MSNBC

NGO: Vote To Be Dirtier Than In 2006

KIEV, Ukraine -- The head of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine Ihor Popov said that these elections will be “dirtier” than last year’s vote. The “cleanliness of the 2006 elections was a social requirement,” he said at a press conference in Odessa on Sept. 6.

Committee of Voters of Ukraine Ihor Popov
“In 2006, President Viktor Yushchenko was very interested in showing the world that we are capable of conducting honest elections, that he could have been willing to sacrifice their result,” according to the UNIAN report.

“The result will be paramount [in the] current elections,” he said. “To achieve the result, the election participants will use all of their capabilities.”

Popov predicted that “bought votes” would be worth up to Hr 100 ($20) on election day. He said that no more than 50,000 votes would be bought on Sept. 30; any more “will be very visible.” Fifty thousand votes represent approximately 0.2 percent in the final count.

Popov also predicted that any political party unhappy with the vote-tallying process “will create a scenario of protesting election results, even revolutionary action.”

“Further escalation of societal tension can lead to direct action of the losing side that does not recognize defeat and use all resources to prove it is right,” said Popov. He also pointed to shortcomings in electoral law: A losing party can “nullify” its list and force new parliamentary elections.

Television favoritism

Last month the Party of Regions, headed by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, led all political parties in the number of campaign ads on national television, while Yulia Tymoshenko’s Byut bloc spent the most time advertising on the airwaves. Ten national channels were monitored by the Academy of Ukrainian Press Aug. 20-25.

More than 1,000 ads were reviewed in the five-day period last month, representing 62,700 seconds, or more than 17 hours of airtime. The monitoring showed that 68 percent of ads were openly campaign-related – 15 percent less than recorded a month prior to last year’s elections. The more recent findings showed nearly a third of all ads were “partially hidden or anonymous.” More than 7 percent of ads fell to “an anonymous subject of the electoral process.”

The study found that more than 25 percent of election-related ads in the course of five days were aired by Regions. Byut led the airwaves in terms of total time with 23.5 percent. The Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense (OUPSD) bloc loyal to President Yushchenko followed closely.

Former parliament speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s bloc was more aggressive in its television advertising than the Socialists, President Yushchenko and the Communists.

Some channels displayed favoritism. Television and radio company Ukrayina – part of Regions’ sponsor Rinat Akhmetov’s media holdings – is only airing Regions’ advertisements. Seventy percent of all political ads on the Donetsk-rooted NTN channel were from Regions, while the STB television channel did not air any Regions ads.

The study found Byut concentrating on channels like STB and leading in total airtime on all channels except Ukrayina, NTN and the nation’s leader Inter. OUPSD’s television campaign was more balanced across all channels.

Paper: $5 million musicians

The Delo newspaper reported on Sept. 7 that Ukrainian performers stand to make $5 million from political parties during the election campaign.

The paper reported that four entertainers appearing at concerts sponsored by Regions stand to make the most: from $10,000-30,000 per concert. Acts paid for by OUPSD earn up to $10,000. The paper noted six bands and singers who are on tour for OUPSD.

Byut, meanwhile, is targeting youth and Ukrainian-language audiences with smaller but numerous concerts across the country. Folk voice icon Nina Matvienko told Delo that she earns a little more than her monthly pension from Byut for her performances, according to the report.

Source: Kyiv Post

Yushchenko Names His Poisoners

MOSCOW, Russia -- The names of the main suspects in the 2004 dioxin poisoning of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko have become known. They are Vladimir Satsyuk, Taras Zalessky and Alexey Poletukha.

President Viktor Yushchenko
According to Ukrainian law enforcement, they are all now in Russia.

There are signs that Moscow may aid in their capture.

Satsyuk and Zalessky have figured in the case since the beginning.

The dinner on September 5, 2004, at which Yushchenko was poisoned took place at Satsyuk's dacha.

Satsyuk was at the time deputy head of the Ukrainian Security Service.

Zalessky was also present. He took the serving of pilaf intended for Yushchenko from the cooks and served it to him himself.

Little is known about Poletukha.

He worked in Ukraine Bank, which was founded by Yushchenko, and has long been wanted for financial crimes.

It is possible that he was in Russia at the time of the poisoning and acted as procurer of the poison.

Deputy Prosecutor General of Ukraine Nikolay Golomsha told Kommersant yesterday that Moscow has agreed to establish an expert commission to participate in the investigation.

Golomsha noted with approval that Russia has agreed to the presence of Ukrainian representatives in its investigation.

This is the first step Russia has taken in investigating the crime.

Russia made its decision the day after Yushchenko complained of Russia's intransigence to the Western media.

Source: Kommersant

Red In Tooth And Claw

LONDON, England -- Life in the former Soviet Union is sometimes compared to a zoo. Predatory oligarchs are the big beasts in the post-Communist jungle, and their wildlife antics, including sex and murder, lend colour to otherwise dull reports of takeovers and mergers.


In a way, the journalistic cliché merely updates Orwell's Animal Farm. The nature of bandit capitalism is red in tooth and claw. Yet the comic novels of Ukrainian writer Andrey Kurkov take the zoological metaphor literally.

Kurkov's masterpiece Picnic on Ice (or Death and the Penguin, as it became in English translation) tells the story of Viktor, a struggling writer in chaotic 1990s Kiev who adopts a penguin called Misha because the city's post-Soviet zoo can no longer afford to feed it.

The "death" of the title refers to a job the hero gets writing obituaries of people who suddenly begin to die in mysterious and bizarre circumstances.

Ukraine emerges as a place almost dehumanised by corruption and gangsters, but the satire never feels harsh or one-dimensional.

Indeed Kurkov lampoons the morally grotesque post-Soviet world in much the same way as his fellow Ukrainians Mikhail Bulgakov and Nikolai Gogol used magic and surrealism to write fables of oppression under Stalin or the tsar.

His latest novel, The President's Last Love, describes the turbulent life story of a Ukrainian president of the near future. It was originally published in Russian, in 2004, a few months before the Orange Revolution swept Viktor Yushchenko to power.

His face appears on the cover of the Russian edition of the novel - or, at any rate, half of it does. The other half belongs to Putin, who also has a walk-on role in Kurkov's novel, hosting celebrations, in 2013, of the fourth cen tenary of the Romanov dynasty.

Such a misfit is intriguing. The aptly named Russian leader was "put in" to power in the first place (rather like our own prime minister) without the fuss of an election, while Yushchenko's supporters took to the streets to overturn a rigged poll.

His fictional counterpart, Sergey Bunin, who is also Kurkov's narrator, wakes from heart transplant surgery at the beginning of The President's Last Love to find his body covered in freckles due to a poisoning.

The same thing happened to Yushchenko, now completely pockmarked, six months after the book was published. It's a remarkable case of life imitating art, or perhaps of would-be assassins reading novels for inspiration.

Other problems cast a shadow over the president's hospital bed. An oligarch is threatening to cut off the nation's electricity in a subplot oddly prescient of last year's dispute between Russia and Ukraine over the gas supply, while the Vatican wants to sanctify the kitchen garden of a crippled widow in western Ukraine after it begins to yield "miracle" potatoes the size of footballs.

Widows bulk large in the novel, as they did in the former Soviet Union itself. One woman demands visiting rights to her deceased husband's heart now transplanted into the president's chest.

Almost a replica of what happened to Yushchenko after the Orange Revolution, when his fragile government collapsed amid political intrigue and the warring ambitions of his supporters, The President's Last Love is a novel about the corrupting power of innocence.

There are some lovely comic dissonances between high office and low humanity as Kurkov charts Bunin's various romantic attachments, and how they enabled him to climb the political ladder.

But the narrative structure is impossibly complicated as the book is divided into three separate timeframes, roughly corresponding to the early, middle and later years of the hero. These are shuffled every two or three pages for no obvious reason.

The overall effect isn't helped by the poor quality of the uncredited translation, with its broken syntax and sloppy punctuation.

Here, for example, is Bunin describing the "national soap opera" that is Ukraine: "There was my spinning top of a country, reeling west one minute and east the next, and nothing I could do about it. There were enemies, both secret and open. And there were also those for me, again both secret and - some on my team - open."

Authenticity of language is important in Kurkov's fiction because the text itself is shot through with political significances that may get lost by indirect translation.

The novelist is criticised by some intellectuals in Kiev because he writes in Russian instead of Ukrainian. (He was born in St Petersburg but emigrated to Ukraine with his family at the age of three.)

In Russia, on the other hand, he is persona non grata because he pokes fun at the Kremlin. Two years ago, the Russian delegation to the Paris Book Fair lobbied unsuccessfully for his invitation to be withdrawn.

It was another example of life imitating art, the invisible hand of violence lurking in his novels and beyond.

Source: New Statesman

Lead By Example

KIEV, Ukraine -- Throughout his political career as opposition party leader and presidential candidate, and now during the parliamentary elections, President Viktor Yushchenko has campaigned as a man who is looking out for the interests of “little Ukrainians” and true Ukrainian patriots.

The Pechersk School International (PSI)
He rallied against the privileges enjoyed by the political and business elite during the reign of his predecessor Leonid Kuchma and called upon a great pride in Ukrainian history and culture.

This makes his decision to send his children to Pechersk School International seem very odd indeed.

Not that there is anything wrong with PSI. Since its founding in 1995, it has provided an excellent education to hundreds of children of diplomats and other foreigners who have been in Ukraine for short periods of time.

It provides an excellent alternative to the difficulties of the Ukrainian school system.

But PSI is truly expensive. Tuition costs more than $12,000 per year.

Second, a quick look at PSI’s website reveals that education is provided in the English language and it offers an International Baccalaureate degree.

The International Baccalaureate degree is a globally recognized degree for high schools that is accepted at universities around the world in over 100 countries, though by none in Ukraine.

As president of Ukraine, the country’s educational system is under the direct purview of Yushchenko. In his three years as head of state, we have heard barely a peep about the problems of the education system or his plans to reform it.

The problems of the system are well-known in Ukraine and obvious to any employer. These problems include poor teacher salaries, endemic corruption, and most notably, abysmal foreign-language teaching.

In the purely human sense, it is understandable why the Yushchenkos would like to have their children avoid the Ukrainian school system entirely.

It is a shame that instead of leading by example, the president and his family have opted for the easy way out. Meanwhile, the country’s educational system is arguably an issue of national security.

The glaring inequality can only be rectified with a concerted campaign that will do more than promise higher wages for teachers and stipends for students.

The goal should be to raise the quality of education in all of the nation’s schools to the same level enjoyed by teachers and students at schools like PSI.

Source: Kyiv Post Editorial

Journalist's Murder Unsolved in Ukraine

MOSCOW, Russia -- Media freedom advocates harshly criticized Ukrainian authorities Wednesday for a lack of progress in the inquiry into the murder of an investigative journalist seven years ago.

Investigative journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, whose brutal murder remains unsolved after seven years, despite promises by President Viktor Yushchenko to bring those responsible to justice.
Three former police officers have faced trial in connection with the killing of Heorhiy Gongadze, whose beheaded body was found in a forest outside Kiev in 2000, but the probe has failed to track down the mastermind.

"This is the biggest question today: If there is a planned campaign of political obstruction? And we believe that there is," Jim Boumelha, the president of the International Federation of Journalists, said at a news conference.

Gongadze crusaded against official corruption. His killing triggered months of protests after Mykola Melnychenko, a former bodyguard to then-President Leonid Kuchma, released tape recordings in which voices resembling those of Kuchma and others were heard conspiring against the journalist.

Western-leaning President Viktor Yushchenko has pledged to make solving the killing a top priority, but no one has been convicted.

Press freedom watchdogs have particularly criticized Yushchenko for giving a state medal to the nation's former Prosecutor General, Mykhailo Potebenko.

Gongadze appealed to Potebenko shortly before his murder when he realized he was being followed, but the prosecutor ignored his plea.

"There are people who try to cover up (for) their colleagues — this is the only explanation I can give," Gongadze's widow, Myroslava, said when asked to comment on the stalled official probe.

Melnychenko fled in 2000 to the United States, where he was granted political asylum, but he later returned to Ukraine to testify.

Seven years ago, Gongadze got into what he thought was a taxi, and was then joined by three others and driven outside Kiev, according to the suspects. He was beaten and strangled, his body doused with gasoline and burned. Experts said Gongadze was decapitated after his death.

Numerous tests have concluded the remains are Gongadze's. His head has not been found.

Source: AP

Ukrainian President Says Russia Not Cooperating With Inquiry

MOSCOW, Russia -- Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko charged today that Russia has frustrated efforts to investigate a plot to kill him by dioxin poisoning during a presidential campaign in which Moscow backed his opponent.

Viktor Chernomyrdin, the Russian ambassador to Ukraine
In published remarks, Yushchenko did not explicitly accuse Russian authorities of involvement in the 2004 assassination attempt.

But he implied that the dioxin came from Russia and said the Russian prosecutor general's office was protecting key Ukrainian suspects by ignoring requests for their extradition.

Yushchenko, a pro-Western leader seeking to steer Ukraine away from Moscow's influence, came close to death from the poisoning.

The president, interviewed by the British newspaper The Times and the French daily Le Figaro, said Russia has not cooperated in an effort to determine the source of the dioxin.

"Three laboratories in the world were producing dioxin of this formula," he said. "It is very easy to determine the origin of the substance; there is nothing magical about it. Two laboratories provided samples, but not the Russian side. This of course limits the possibilities of the investigation process."

The Times reported that when asked whether Russia was responsible for his poisoning, Yushchenko replied: "If I respond to that question, then the investigation will have nothing to do. We need to question the people who had direct involvement in the case."

Yushchenko said the probe has answers to many questions.

"The role of all of the individuals that might be involved in this case is already determined," he said. "The investigation knows who, when, where, which substance was used. There are three key people who are now in Russia. Ukraine has filed a request with the Russian prosecutor general's office about returning these people to Ukraine for the investigation."

Yushchenko said that although he had discussed the case directly with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, "unfortunately there is no response to this issue whatsoever from the Russian side."

Viktor Chernomyrdin, the Russian ambassador to Ukraine, told reporters in Kiev that he was "really surprised" to hear that Yushchenko had accused Russia of hindering the investigation.

"Why should we investigate it?" Chernomyrdin said, according to the Russian news agency Interfax. "You sort it out yourselves. You're always looking for someone hindering you."

Chernomyrdin apparently did not address the issue of extraditing suspects.

Yushchenko fell ill after having dinner with then-Ukrainian Security Service chief Ihor Smeshko and his deputy, Volodymyr Satsyuk, on Sept. 5, 2004. The dinner was at Satsyuk's country home.

Both men have denied involvement in the poisoning. However, Satsyuk and an assistant reportedly left Ukraine after Yushchenko's victory in the presidential race, and might be among the targets of Ukraine's extradition request.

Yushchenko reported having a headache about three hours after the dinner, and by the next day had developed an acute stomachache. He later suffered pancreatitis and gastrointestinal pain.

He then developed a facial rash, a symptom of dioxin poisoning. Analysis of blood samples confirmed severe dioxin poisoning.

It's not yet clear whether he will face long-term health problems as a result of the poisoning.

He went on to defeat Viktor Yanukovich in a rerun of presidential balloting after initial results showing Yanukovich the winner were declared invalid because of fraud.

Yanukovich later made a comeback and is now prime minister. Conflicts between the two men led to a decision to hold an early parliamentary election scheduled for Sept. 30.

Vadim Karasyov, director of the Kiev-based Institute for Global Strategies, said in a telephone interview that Yushchenko's comments may be intended as a warning to Moscow not to back Yanukovich in the upcoming parliamentary election.

"Kiev is not yet accusing the Kremlin of direct involvement in that crime, but it is clearly sending a message that such a possibility exists," Karasyov said. "It means that Moscow needs to think twice before openly supporting [Yanukovich] if it doesn't want to have another kind of polonium scandal on its hands."

Sergei Markov, a prominent political analyst with ties to the Kremlin, also linked Yushchenko's comments to the pending election, but said the intent was to distract attention from investigators' failure to solve the dioxin case.

"It is no secret that Yushchenko is extremely Russophobic," Markov said. "Right now Russia is being accused of hiding suspects who allegedly poisoned Alexander Litvinenko. So why not pump up this scandal even further by throwing around another ungrounded poisoning accusation to make Russia look like a refuge for poisoners of all kinds?"

Source: LA Times

The Poison Was Russian: Yushchenko

PARIS, France -- Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said he is convinced the dioxin poison that disfigured him was made in a Russian lab, according to an interview in today's French daily Le Figaro.

Yushchenko before (L) and after dioxin poisoning
"Three laboratories in the world produce this type of dioxin ... Two laboratories sent samples. But not the Russian lab. That limits the inquiry," he told the paper.

He did not explicitly accuse the Russian government of being behind his poisoning in 2004, but he did say he had "practically put all the pieces together" and the attempt against him "was not a private action".

"The investigators know when, what meal, where, who. There is information on three key people who are in Russia," he said, adding that he had spoken about the matter to Russian President Vladimir Putin last December.

"Since then, unfortunately, there has been no response. I am convinced that after these people are questioned the facts will be proved."

Yushchenko, a pro-European politician who wanted to bring his country out of Russia's shadow, fell gravely ill on September 6, 2004 as he was competing in presidential elections against a pro-Moscow candidate, Viktor Yanukovich, now prime minister.

Months of tests in an Austrian clinic determined that he had ingested a massive amount of dioxin, a poison.

Although he survived, his face was left bloated and pockmarked, and he has had to undergo regular treatment in Switzerland to rid his body of the toxin.

Yushchenko told Le Figaro that his pro-European instincts were unchanged, and that he still intended to have his country one day join NATO.

He also said that reports of disharmony with the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine in the lead-up to early elections on September 30 were exaggerated.

"Of course the east and west of the country belonged for 300 years to different empires, but the common heritage and efforts are very strong. The people are different, but they aren't enemies."

Source: News AU

Yushchenko Accuses Rival Over Referendum Plans

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's president has reprimanded influential businessmen in prime minister Viktor Yanukovich's party for backing plans to hold a national referendum he sees as betraying national interests.

Embattled President Viktor Yushchenko
The move came as the country prepared for snap presidential elections.

In a Financial Times interview, Viktor Yushchenko said the choice to back a national referendum could challenge Kiev's NATO membership aspirations and grant Russian language official status. "They feel the taste of power once again and in my view have demonstrated to the nation that lessons have yet to be learned," said Mr Yushchenko.

While their billion-dollar companies have increasingly integrated into international capital markets and become more transparent in recent years, members of the business elite backing Mr Yanukovich remained active political players and had "not changed much" since the Orange Revolution, when they backed the premier's candidacy in an allegedly rigged presidential vote, Mr Yushchenko said.

He accused them of pulling divisive campaign agendas out of an "old bag" to polarise voters.

Mr Yanukovich's Regions party has announced plans to hold a referendum asking voters if they backed granting Russian official status as a national language in addition to Ukrainian, and if they supported Kiev's neutrality from military blocs.

Mr Yushchenko was sceptical about the initiatives. "They are fruitless ... not the right priorities. In the last four years, they have had tens of opportunities to raise these issues. Obviously this is a last-ditch effort [to polarise voters] and shows that they have nothing else to talk about."

Citing low public support, Mr Yanukovich has opposed NATO membership. Yushchenko allies have accused him of pandering to Moscow interests.

Ukrainians have in recent years grown disillusioned with politics, but remain split on an east-west axis over NATO and the language issue. But support for European Union membership is high.

Recalling last year's compromise deal in which Mr Yanukovich's candidacy for the prime ministership was accepted in return for guarantees on integration with western Europe, Mr Yushchenko said: "I am deeply offended. I was convinced that when a person puts down their signature on paper it means they will not go back on their word. This was a big mistake. I was naive."

After losing the presidential contest in 2004, Mr Yanukovich returned as premier last summer after an inconclusive parliamentary poll. Both leaders have since been locked in a struggle over authority.

Source: MSNBC

Ukraine’s Future Hangs In The Balance

MARMARI, Greece -- Leonid Kravchuk, Ukraine’s first president after the collapse of the Soviet Union, called upon all the country’s political forces to unite around specific key issues before the crucial parliamentary elections on September 30, 2007, to avoid a repeat of the prolonged political crisis that has troubled Ukraine since the Orange Revolution in 2004.

Ukraine's first president, Leonid Kravchuk
The political crisis cannot go on indefinitely, he said. “The moment will come that the Ukrainian political forces will understand either they are going to act in the interest of the people, otherwise they will have to go,” Kravchuk told New Europe in the resort town of Marmari on the Greek island of Evia, where he was attending a Ukrainian-Greek forum on September 7.

Kravchuk, who in December 1991, together with Boris Yeltsin of Russia and Stanislaw Shushkevich of Belarus, signed an agreement in the Viskuli government residence in Belarus’ Belavezhskaya Pushcha National Park, formalising the breakup of the USSR and leading to the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States, agreed to leave his post before the end of his term in 1994 and holding an early election.

Today, he stressed, the three major parties -- Party of Regions, Bloc Yulia Timoshenko and Our Ukraine -- hold on to power for the sake of power and have lost their connection to the Ukrainian people.

Kravchuk said the elections have become the biggest issue and the biggest problem. Ukraine's 47 million people are tired of this situation, he said.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yanukovich have been wrestling for dominance since 2004, when Yushchenko led the Orange Revolution.

A hard-won agreement between the two leaders to hold early parliamentary elections on September 30 has eased the confrontation. But the truce may be only temporary.

Kravchuk leaned back in his chair pondering the conditions that led Ukraine into a political crisis. He said whether or not Ukraine will avoid another prolonged political stalemate after the elections “will depend on how all political forces, in Ukraine will view this issue. Not only the decisive Ukraine political forces which we define as Party of Regions, Bloc Yulia Timoshenko and Our Ukraine. These forces have monopolised today the shaping of Ukrainian political landscape. But they don’t represent the whole Ukrainian nation and even not all the Ukrainian voters.”

He explained that approximately half of the votes the three major parties received were through the system of allocation.

“These are the votes of other parties which could not pass the three percent threshold, so these three parties got automatically the votes of other parties,” Kravchuk said.

The soft-spoken politician called on Yushchenko to take into consideration the issues troubling the whole country and not only those concerning Our Ukraine party.

“If today all the political forces unite around some specific issues, and the president will take the position of the president of the whole Ukraine and not that of part of the country -- because today he is the president of the opposition -- then in this case Ukraine will be able to overcome these problems and follow the course which has been defined by the Ukrainian referendum,” he said.

Kravchuk said the issue of Ukraine’s accession to NATO, the European Union and its relations with Russia will definitely be the topic of very hot debates during the parliamentary elections.

He added that Ukrainians are not interested for the time being in their country joining NATO. He said, citing recent polls, that 87 percent of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should not be a member of NATO.

Ukraine’s accession to the defence alliance may also complicate Kiev’s relations with Moscow. “Naturally, Russia is opposed to Ukraine’s accession to NATO. She doesn’t want the extension of NATO to be close to Russia. We should take this into consideration (and) not follow whatever Russia says, but to keep it in mind in order not to deteriorate relations between Russia and NATO, which can cause serious problems in European security. I’d like to say that some European countries understand this position of Ukraine and this position of Russia,” he said, adding that Ukraine alone should decide if and when it wants to join NATO.

A few hours earlier he admitted to Ukrainian journalists that if Russia cut off relations with Ukraine for one day, Ukraine would be wiped off the map economically. “Both our countries are very productive. We rely very heavily on them whether we like it or not,” he said.

“Regarding the European Union, I have said that Ukraine is not ready yet to become a member of the European Union. She has to solve a number of complex issues: legislative, economic, spiritual. And upon solution of all these issues it will have all the reasons to enter the European Union,” he told New Europe.

Ukraine has to get its own house in order first. “The most important issue today for Ukraine is to definitely solve its own internal problems. The sooner we will solve our internal problems, the more chances Ukraine will have to become a member of the European international organisations including the EU,” Kravchuk said.

Source: New Europe

Russia Does Not Want To Give Yanukovich Unreserved Support

MOSCOW, Russia -- All recent presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine have shown that the nation is split into the West, East and South.

Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych
The most important and dramatic feature is that this split is very deep and has to do with culture, civilization and self-identity.

The Ukrainian West with its rather strong anti-Russian rhetoric wants to join NATO and the European Union (EU). The Russia-oriented East and South are interested in preserving the Russian language and culture in Ukraine.

Needless to say, many in the East also want to see Ukraine integrated into European economic and other agencies, but they are emphatically against any border lines with Russia, especially military and political ones.

Today, these two forces are roughly equal. This stalemate has prevented Ukraine from making a final choice for a long time. The formation of a new parliament and government is not likely to alter much.

Nothing has seriously changed since December 2004, when the revolution put Viktor Yushchenko's Orange team in power. In 2004, Yushchenko scored a very narrow victory over Yanukovich in the third round, whereas the last parliamentary elections were won by the Yanukovich-led Party of Regions.

In the fall of 2007, the overall victory of either side will be minimal. It may be enough for the winner to form a government but obviously inadequate for the conduct of an effective economic, military and political line.

This means that in the foreseeable future, political life in Ukraine will be vulnerable to crises and upheavals.

This situation will persist until the public makes a clear choice or until Kiev decides that Ukraine is an artificial entity inhabited by two communities with two languages and cultures (like Canada or Belgium).

Or take the third option - the victory of the aggressive West, which will try to subdue the East and South, impose the Ukrainian language and culture on them, unite the country and integrate it into NATO and other European agencies.

The alignment of forces in the new parliament still remains a question. At one time - after the previous elections - pro-Yushchenko's Our Ukraine and Yanukovich's Party of Regions could have formed a big coalition.

The opponents even struck a deal to get rid of the third player - Yulia Tymoshenko, who claimed the prime minister's position. But they failed to unite into a coalition. As a result, Yushchenko's political status sustained a blow and the victory went to Yanukovich, who headed the government.

It is also important that Ukraine's West, Washington and Brussels realize that if the Orange coalition seized all branches of government, the split would become even worse, and the political forces would be further apart.

This means that the Party of Regions and its allies would strengthen their pro-Russian positions and insist more loudly on the demand of Ukraine's federalization, con-federalization or even a split.

I'd like to repeat the most likely scenario for the forthcoming elections - in principle, the alignment of forces will not change.

Nothing substantial has taken place of late. The only difference is that the Socialists, who took part in the previous coalition with the Party of Regions, are not likely to be elected to parliament.

Ukraine's EU entry was a subject of heated debates during and after the Orange Revolution. Now little depends on Ukraine in this respect.

The EU that has emerged from the expansion crisis is not likely to accept such a big country as Ukraine. The West knows full well that the price of Ukraine's EU membership is too high.

NATO, where the Americans are drawing Ukraine, is a different story. Our Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions are seriously divided on this issue. The former two are ready to join NATO tomorrow, while the latter demands a national referendum.

But all of them, including the latter, are forgetting their own laws - the declaration of independence and the constitution clearly ascribe a non-aligned status to Ukraine.

It appears that its constitution has to be changed for the NATO entry. Today, the public does not support the idea of joining NATO but much will depend on how the voters will be brainwashed.

Experience shows that few people in Ukraine care about law. Political expediency is all-important. A stronger party imposes its will. That was the case in 2004, when a third round of elections was held in defiance of all laws, and when the crowd was actually telling the leaders what to do.

The situation today is pretty much the same - the parliament has been dissolved by the president's illegal decree. In any other country, this would have led to the impeachment but Yushchenko has kept his place and his opponents have agreed to early elections.

Now an attack is in full swing against the Constitutional Court and the Central Election Commission. The Orange team follows a simple logic - it is legal to change everything that does not suit us.

Russia knows full well that Ukraine is the most important geopolitical factor for it in the post-Soviet space. In 2004, I was almost alone in supporting Yushchenko rather than Yanukovich.

It has become obvious today that the latter's unreserved support will not help Russia to resolve a whole package of bilateral military-political and economic problems. In its current split condition Ukraine is unable to form a common economic space with Russia.

It will continue maneuvering in Kuchma's style - concluding an agreement in the morning and denouncing it in the evening.

It is not in Russia's interests to return to the logic of 2004, that is, to promise Ukraine to sell gas at low prices and write off debts for its loyalty.

It is clear that under the circumstances Yanukovich is simply unable to make a radical shift towards Moscow. Russia will suffer more economic losses if it supports him gratis.

This is why it is not as active in these elections as it was in 2004.

However, to an extent, Moscow is definitely backing the Party of Regions - after all, Yanukovich came to the MAKS air show in Moscow, where he met with Vladimir Putin, ostensibly by accident.

Source: RIA Novosti

AP Interview: Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko Upbeat Before Parliamentary Vote

KIEV, Ukraine -- Even as he spoke, President Viktor Yushchenko's face and hands told a story of his struggles - and Ukraine's.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko gestures during an interview with The Associated Press in Kiev, Ukraine
Above the smart dark suit and striped red tie Yushchenko wore for an interview this week, his face remained badly scarred three years after he suffered dioxin poisoning during his 2004 election campaign against Viktor Yanukovych - then, as now, the prime minister and Yushchenko's rival in a bitter power struggle.

Below the cuffs, bandages on both palms were signs of Yushchenko's latest battle: He hurt his hands when he personally pitched in to fight a forest fire raging in southern Ukraine late last month, a well-publicized show of concern for the country before crucial parliamentary elections Sept. 30.

The vote, the product of a hard-won agreement between Yanukovych and Yushchenko, is meant to ease a confrontation that has paralyzed politics in the former Soviet republic and denied its 47 million people the sense of normalcy they have been desperate for since Ukraine gained independence in the Soviet collapse of 1991.

The pro-Western Yushchenko and the more Russian-leaning Yanukovych have been wrestling for dominance since 2004, when Yushchenko led the Orange Revolution - massive street protests denouncing fraud during the presidential election in which Yanukovych was initially declared the winner.

The Supreme Court threw out the results, and Yushchenko won a rerun. But Yanukovych's party gained the most seats in March 2006 parliamentary elections, propelling him back into the prime minister's post and ushering in a Cabinet that has opposed Yushchenko.

Speaking to The Associated Press in his office, Yushchenko predicted that this time around, his side would come out on top. He expressed confidence that his supporters and erstwhile Orange Revolution allies - what he calls the democratic forces - could gain enough seats to push Yanukovych's government from power and end the crisis.

"I think that there are more Orange forces," he said. "So today the possibility of forming a democratic government is very high."

Others were not so sure. Analysts have said the vote is unlikely to shift the balance of power and resolve the issue of who is in charge.

Polls suggest all three major parties - Yushchenko's Our Ukraine, Yanukovych's Party of Regions and the party led by Yushchenko's Orange Revolution ally Yulia Tymoshenko - could win about the same number of seats as in March 2006.

That would leave Yanukovych with plenty of pull when it comes to forming a governing coalition. Yushchenko's prospects are also clouded by his fragile relationship with his most powerful potential coalition ally, Tymoshenko, whom he fired as prime minister in 2005.

He spoke of the need for "consolidation" of the forces in opposition to Yanukovych, bringing his hands together and intertwining his fingers as if trying to physically will a process he said "requires big efforts."

Despite the uncertainty, Yushchenko said the elections were a chance for Ukraine to shrug off what he called the "lost years" of political crisis and tackle the problems, most notably official corruption, that have plagued the country since independence.

A former central bank chief and prime minister, Yushchenko pointed to economic achievements he stressed came despite his lack of support in parliament. But he acknowledged that they may not satisfy the people's desire to "get a better life and get it quicker," after decades of privations.

Average wages have risen by 50 percent over three years, and the economy is growing by about 8 percent annually, he said.

"One must understand the conditions in which the president works. There was not a single day when I had a majority in parliament," he said.

Yushchenko has pushed integration with the European Union and NATO and sought to decrease Russia's influence on Ukraine, most of which was dominated by Moscow for centuries. His foreign policy agenda has been hampered by the government of Yanukovych, who has warmer ties with Moscow and strong support in the largely Russian-speaking east.

Yushchenko suggested that eventual integration with Europe was a foregone conclusion, noting that the EU is Ukraine's leading trade partner and pointing to projects linking the two in energy, space and other industries.

But he acknowledged the rift that has aggravated the country's post-Soviet turmoil, saying it was etched over centuries in which there was no Ukrainian state and its lands were controlled by external powers - mainly Poland and Russia. The shadow of the Soviet era is still so strong, he said, that some Ukrainians will never be swayed to support his policies.

"I understand that a portion of the nation was formed under an alien ideology, under alien propaganda, orientation - that to convince a certain portion of the people that this country needs European ideals and values is very difficult," Yushchenko said. "In fact, maybe it will be beyond my power to convince some."

It may only be time that can heal the divisions and ensure that Ukraine thrives, he suggested.

"It's not easy for a nation of 50 million to reformat its fundamental concept of values - a nation that has just emerged from an empire," he said. "It's labor, serious work."

Ukraine's youth, he said, "are already different people. … They understand more clearly who we were and where we are going.

"And this, of course, creates great optimism. This gives strength and energy; and this is what we must live for."

Source: AP

Pavarotti: I Have Sung All My Life

MODENA, Italy -- Famed tenor Luciano Pavarotti, who died on Thursday at the age of 71, was one of opera's most adaptable and ebullient performers, appearing on stage with singers as varied as Dame Joan Sutherland, U2's Bono and Liza Minnelli.


Nessun Dorma by Pavarotti at Torino 2006
Much as the star power of Rudolf Nureyev and Mikhail Baryshnikov revived widespread interest in classical ballet in the 1970s and 1980s, Pavarotti's beaming charisma and bravura style captured the attention of the late-20th-century audience for opera.

Widely considered the greatest tenor of his time, Pavarotti began his life modestly in Modena, the son of Fernando, a baker and amateur singer, and Adele, who worked at the local tobacco factory.

"I dreamed to become a singer when I was four and I hear my father singing in the church with a beautiful tenor voice," he told CNN in a 1991 interview. "And I say to myself, well, let's try to do something."

The young Pavarotti -- who played soccer with his town's junior team -- joined the church choir with his father and traveled with him to Wales, where the singing group won first prize at the Llangollen International singing competition.

Although the experience left Pavarotti enthralled with singing, he graduated from the local teaching institute in 1955 and taught elementary school for two years, then worked as an insurance salesman. He continued his vocal studies, however, working first with with Arrigo Pola and then with Ettore Campogalliani.

Then, in 1961, Pavarotti won the prestigious Concorso Internazionale and made his operatic debut at the Reggio Emilia Theater as Rodolfo in Giacomo Puccini's "La Boheme."

His fame spread throughout Italy and then throughout the European continent as he made his international debut in Giuseppe Verdi's "La Traviata" in Belgrade.

When Dame Joan Sutherland brought him on-stage with her during a performance of Gaetano Donizetti's "Lucia di Lammermoor" with the Greater Miami Opera in 1965, Pavarotti began his American career.

He debuted at New York's Metropolitan Opera House three years later, and eventually marked 379 performances there, including his final opera, Puccini's "Tosca" in 2004, in which he performed as the painter Mario Cavaradossi.

In between Pavarotti sold millions of records and raised millions of dollars for charity through benefit concerts, often sharing the stage with pop stars as well as other opera singers.

Of his recordings, 1990's "The Essential Pavarotti" was the first classical album to reach No. 1 on Britain's pop charts, where it remained for five weeks. 1994's "The Three Tenors in Concert," with Placido Domingo and Jose Carreras, remains the best selling classical album of all time.

Pavarotti joined with Domingo and Carreras in 1990, and although critics complained that Pavarotti's vocal skills were waning, the trio performed together for 14 years.

Among his charities were a 1995 "Concert for Bosnia" that raised $8.5 million and other concerts that raised $3.3 million for refugees from Afghanistan and $1 million for refugees from Kosovo.

In artistic terms, Pavarotti brought to the stage a voice neatly suited to the traditional bel canto, or "beautiful singing" style, essential to 17th-century Italian opera. As much about intensity as pitch, bel canto focuses the voice, concentrating the sound with both outstanding warmth and agility.

So demanding is this work even of the best singers that Pavarotti in concert recital could be seen rising to the balls of his feet during the most challenging passages.

A long, white handkerchief always hung from one hand as he sang, his eyebrows arched high in the effort, forming an expression seemingly of surprise at his own success.

From his small beginnings, Pavarotti rose to great heights, performing in front of 500,000 people in New York's Central Park -- a concert seen by millions on television -- and before another 300,000 at Paris' Eiffel Tower.

He won countless awards and honors -- including five Grammies -- and was named United Nations Messenger for Peace by then-Secretary-General Kofi Annan. He launched an international competition, The Pavarotti International Voice Competition, in 1982. He even founded a teaching facility for young singers in his home town.

His signature aria, Puccini's "Nessun Dorma" from "Turandot," was chosen as the theme music for the 1990 soccer World Cup, hosted by Italy. He also performed the aria at the opening ceremony of the 2006 Winter Olympics in Turin.

The great singer was also known as an equestrian expert, organizing one of the international show jumping circuit's most important competitions, the Pavarotti International, in Modena. Coinciding with that event, Pavarotti also staged an annual charity concert, Pavarotti and Friends.

The portly singer retired from staged opera in 2004, but was on a "farewell tour" of concerts when he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in 2006 and underwent emergency surgery to remove the tumor.

Although the remaining concerts of his tour were canceled, his management said that he hoped to resume the tour in 2007.

When cancer finally stopped Pavarotti from singing, it was only the second interruption of his career.

"I think I just stop for one year when from a kid I become a man and the voice is changing," he said in 1991.

"I was an alto and become a tenor and that is the only time I think I remember to have stopped singing. Otherwise I have sung all my life."

Source: CNN

EU Meets With Nearest Neighbors To Discuss Ties

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- The European Union meets with 16 neighboring countries on Monday to generate more momentum for a $16.5 billion program of economic and other aid in exchange for reforms, a strategy that has been a tough sell from the day it was launched in 2004.

EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner
The EU's European Neighborhood Program offers neighbors cash, expertise and easy access to EU markets in return for commitment to across-the-board reforms.

It has had a difficult start.

"It's essential we listen carefully to the aspirations of our neighbors," EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said before Monday's first-ever meeting of foreign ministers and senior officials from the 27 EU and the 16 neighboring states.

The EU's "ring of friends" program is hobbled by the great variety of participants - from Israel to Ukraine to Libya - and by the EU's insistence they tackle issues such as migration, terrorism or human rights, and the EU public opinion's dim view of the state of democracy beyond the bloc's borders.

The 16 neighbors are Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia and Ukraine.

The most problematic ones - Libya, Belarus and Syria - will attend as observers, diplomats said. Russia will not participate, as the EU is pursuing a "strategic partnership" with its biggest eastern neighbor.

The participation of Libya follows the release, little more than a month ago, of five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor who had been accused of deliberately infecting Libyan children with the AIDS virus.

Their release was followed by the announcement of a French contract to supply Libya with anti-tank missiles, and another deal for the purchase of advanced communications systems was on the table at a reported total value of $405 million.

The EU's neighborhood outreach is little loved by some - notably Ukraine, which aspires to EU membership - and little appreciated in Western Europe.

Last week, the EU released the results of a public opinion survey showing 54 percent of EU nationals have little or no interest in neighboring countries, yet the vast majority of respondents found that cooperation in environment, energy, economic development, migration and the fights against organized crime and terrorism is important.

The neighborhood program was begun in 2004 to offer easy access to the vast EU market of almost 500 million consumers without the right to join the bloc.

While most neighbors have made progress in economic and political reforms, other areas remain problematic, including poverty, corruption, unemployment, mixed economic performance and weak governance.

To help spread stability beyond its borders, the EU has raised funding for 2007-2013 by 32 percent - to $16.5 billion, including 1 billion euros ($1.37 billion) to help trigger private lending for the most reform-minded neighbors - for more trade, increased cooperation in energy, migration and economic issues, greater financial support and more help to resolve regional conflicts.

A more "differentiated" approach, agreed in 2006, means "the EU offers every neighbor country the chance to choose its own path," says Ferrero-Waldner.

Officials said the conference will underline the EU's determination to develop tailor-made partnerships with neighbors and wants to hear where help is wanted most.

The EU offers help in resolving regional conflicts, shoring up weak frontiers, increasing free trade, helping neighbors raise product norms and standards to the EU level and cutting red tape.

It also provides assistance in energy, transport, the environment, rural development, research cooperation, public health, financial services and migration or maritime affairs.

Source: Kyiv Post

Ukraine President Blasts Government On Euro 2012

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's president has accused the ex-Soviet state's government of failing to take seriously the huge tasks of preparing for the 2012 European football championships, to be staged jointly with Poland.

Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko (R) and his Polish counterpart Lech Kaczynski take part in the joint bid for the European Championship football tournament in 2012 in Cardiff, April 17, 2007.
Viktor Yushchenko told Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council on Tuesday that the government, headed by his arch rival, warranted a "red card" for its handling of economic and social issues.

Among them, he said, was a failure to oversee properly and provide sufficient financing for the 2012 championship.

"I believe the government must show great care in the way it deals with Euro 2012," Yushchenko told the meeting. "Every day, more and more analysts and journalists are placing in doubt Ukraine's preparations."

The government, he said, "has yet to show the public how seriously they view this project".

Yushchenko, gearing up for a parliamentary election later this month, is no great lover of sport, but played a key role in helping secure the 2012 championship, seen as a chance to boost the prestige of the ex-Soviet state.

His presence at the bid's final presentation in Cardiff was seen as a key element in beating out two other bids.

Both Ukraine and Poland face colossal tasks in building and improving hotels, roads, airports and other facilities in addition to modernising stadiums.

Ukraine's sports minister last month criticised host cities -- Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kiev and Lviv -- for failing to implement tasks set down in an action plan.

A key issue remains a row over construction of a shopping and leisure centre next to Kiev's main stadium, which could prevent the facility being used to host the 2012 final.

Football's world governing body FIFA has said that if the centre is completed in its current form, it could only authorise matches there with much smaller crowds.

Yushchenko has called a halt to the construction and a UEFA commission is currently visiting Kiev to investigate the matter.

Source: Reuters

Ukraine Urged By OECD To Step Up Economic Reform

PARIS, France -- The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development issued a highly critical report on Ukraine's economy for 2007, saying economic reforms are lagging behind its neighbours and the growth of recent years is threatened.

Angel Gurría, Secretary-General of the OECD
In particular a lack of reform is discouraging foreign investment in the ex-Soviet republic, the report said.

'A number of factors that have underpinned growth since 1999 have exhausted, or will soon exhaust, their potential,' the OECD warned.

'One of the major disappointments of Ukraine's performance to date has been its relative failure to attract foreign direct investment,' the report said, noting that the stock of foreign direct investment per capita was 16 pct of the level in Poland.

'Entrepreneurs face very high levels of legal, regulatory and policy uncertainty, making any long-term undertaking highly risky. The uncertainty and unpredictability of state action stem in many cases from a lack of transparency. These factors in turn fuel widespread corruption.'

The report also warned of an over-reliance on energy-intensive industries, a reminder of the country's heavy reliance on Russia as an energy supplier.

Greater exchange rate flexibility is also needed as 'a first step in a phased transition towards an inflation-targeting regime,' the report said.

Source: Forbes

Kiev Parliament Defies Yushchenko

KIEV, Ukraine -- Legislators backing Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine's premier, on Tuesday raised the stakes in an already tense election campaign by holding a session of parliament of questionable legitimacy.

President Viktor Yushchenko
This act of defiance is expected to test the nerves of Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's pro-western president, who dissolved parliament in the spring, setting the stage for elections.

A group of 269 legislators backing Mr Yanukovich's coalition government gathered in parliament on Tuesday.

They passed two laws, accused the president of illegally dissolving parliament and pledged to keep the legislature open ahead of the September 30 vote.

Ukraine's vague legislation does not clearly specify whether parliament should immediately close when dissolved, or serve until new legislators are elected.

Political analysts in Kiev said the reopening of parliament would provide Mr Yanukovich's allies with a bully pulpit for rallying voter support.

It could also complicate preparations for an election that will gauge how far Kiev's fragile democracy has matured since the Orange Revolution, when street protests against election fraud propelled Mr Yushchenko to the presidency over Mr Yanukovich.

Mr Yushchenko is unlikely forcefully to shut down parliament.

Doing so could spark rallies backing his foe and complicate election preparations.

In a televised address to the nation, aired the night before the extraordinary parliament session, Mr Yushchenko said: "The driving force of this provocation is a desire to sabotage the elections.

"It is motivated by the fear of losing power. Any decision by this parliament will not be legitimate," the president said, stressing that elections would proceed on schedule.

Government officials this week said elections could be cancelled if the parliament functioned stably.

Mr Yanukovich called for calm. "We do not seek destabilisation of the election campaign," he said. "A functioning parliament does not entail any risk to the stability of the country."

After losing the presidential contest in 2004, Mr Yanukovich returned as prime minister last summer after an inconclusive parliamentary poll.

Both leaders have since been locked in a battle for authority.

Mr Yushchenko convinced Mr Yanukovich to accept early elections this summer after their spat escalated into a constitutional crisis.

Source: Euro2day

Ukraine Boss Demands Action On New Stadium

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's top soccer official has hit out at the time it has taken to resolve a row that could prevent the use of Kiev's main stadium in the 2012 European championship.

Hryhory Surkis, head of Ukraine's soccer federation
Hryhory Surkis, head of Ukraine's soccer federation, said officials were openly ignoring orders from Ukraine's president and prime minister to prepare for the event, to be held jointly with Poland.

'We are talking here about a key issue for this tournament - will the Olympic stadium, and therefore Ukraine, be able to host the European championship final?' Surkis said in an interview published on the federation's website.

'The country's honour is on the line and officials are tossing the issue back and forth as if nothing were happening. This depraved practice of official inaction must stop or the state machine will be paralysed by a virus of irresponsibility.'

Uncertainty over the 84,000-seater Olympic stadium focuses on the construction nearby of a shopping and leisure centre, which would violate safety at the facility.

World soccer's governing body FIFA has said that if the centre is completed in its current form, it would only authorise matches there with much smaller crowds.

Ukraine's interior ministry has ordered a limit on the number of tickets sold for Ukraine's Euro 2008 qualifier against Italy on Sept. 12.

President Viktor Yushchenko issued a decree last week ordering the dismantling of the construction project.

A UEFA commission investigating the project and safety norms is due to visit Kiev later this week.

Ukraine's sports minister last month criticised Ukraine's 2012 host cities - Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kiev and Lviv - for what he said was a failure to implement tasks set down in an action plan.

Poland and Ukraine face colossal logistical problems in organising the tournament, including construction and modernisation of stadiums, hotels and transport links.

Source: ESPN

Ukraine Leader Blasts Pre-Poll Parliament Session

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's president on Monday dismissed as meaningless a session of parliament called before a snap election and urged voters to look forward to choosing a chamber he hopes will end months of political turmoil.

Ukraine's "odd couple" - Yushchenko (L) and Yanukovych (R)
Viktor Yushchenko, swept to power by "Orange Revolution" protests in 2004, has dissolved parliament in four decrees issued since April.

He acted on grounds that his rival from the revolution, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, had sought illegally to expand his coalition in the chamber to change the constitution.

Yanukovich initially resisted the dissolution order and the assembly, ignored by the president, sat for weeks until the prime minister agreed to an early Sept. 30 parliamentary poll.

Parliament's speaker called a session for Tuesday with the aim of stripping senior officials of privileges -- a key election slogan -- but the president said parliament remained dissolved.

"Let me put this plainly. In accordance with the constitution, Ukraine's parliament ... is devoid of all powers," Yushchenko said in a television address.

"Any decision taken by such a parliament is illegitimate and has no practical force of law and no political meaning." Yushchenko was to chair a meeting of the National Security and Defence Council on Tuesday on improving living standards.

Yushchenko has long backed stripping parliamentarians of immunity but told viewers this and other issues should be tackled "in a fully legitimate parliament, without illusions and hysteria".

It is unclear how many members will attend Tuesday's sitting. Any decision to abandon the longstanding principle of parliamentary immunity would require a two thirds majority of its 450 members, which is unlikely to occur.

The president's "orange" allies in his Our Ukraine party will stay away as will the bloc of ex-prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, realigned with him after a period of estrangement.

Both groups have long given up their seats to enable the president to call the early election.

Yushchenko and Yanukovich both hope their respective camps will win enough seats to form a viable coalition after what is certain to be a long process of post-election negotiation.

But opinion polls show little change is likely in the assembly's composition.

Yanukovich's Regions Party tops the polls with 25 to 30 percent, but that score, when combined with Communist allies, is roughly equal to the "orange" camp.

Source: Javno

Deal Casts Doubt Over Ukraine Transparency

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's wealthiest man, Rinat Akhmetov, has significantly increased his interest in a large electricity generating company through a controversial debt-for-equity transaction that has cast a shadow over Kiev's ability to privatise state assets transparently.

Viktor Yanukovych (L) and Rinat Akhmetov
With snap parliamentary elections just weeks away, the deal has taken on political overtones.

Opposition parties have cried foul, alleging the sale was fixed in favour of a businessman close to Ukraine's premier, Viktor Yanukovich, and have pledged to challenge it.

Foreign investors who had their shares diluted through the deal are also upset.

The deal is not expected to scare off the record amounts of foreign investment flowing into Ukraine in recent years. However, it has left many wondering if Kiev will improve its record on privatisations and put foreign investors on an equal footing.

Officials representing the state's interest in Dniproenergo agreed last week to a 52 per cent share capital increase, boosting Mr Akhmetov's interest more than four times to about 40 per cent. The stake has been valued at $400m to $500m.

In return, energy companies controlled by Mr Akhmetov agreed to cover $200m of Dniproenergo's debt to creditors, mostly state enterprises.

The government's interest in Dniproenergo was diluted by a third to 50 per cent. Minority shareholder interests were also diluted.

Proponents of the deal, including Mr Yanukovich's government, point to the need to pay off Dniproenergo's debts.

A top manager at Mr Akhmetov's DTEK energy holding said the transaction was "completely transparent" and legal, adding that his company would invest an additional $200m into the debt-ridden company.

Critics argue the deal was conducted exclusively in the interests of Mr Akhmetov. Some analysts said the government could have covered Dniproenergo's debts and raised funds for state coffers by selling shares in an open tender.

Tomas Fiala, director of Kiev-based investment bank Dragon Capital, said: "It's kind of an inside deal and not very transparent. Mr Akhmetov was allowed to buy at $100 per share, a big discount to the market price."

Opposition politicians, with an eye on the snap parliamentary elections at the end of September, have said the deal illustrates how Mr Yanukovich's government kowtows to the interests of allied business tycoons. Mr Akhmetov is an influential member of Mr Yanukovich's Regions party.

"We see how this government is working in tandem with business," said Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister and leader of the opposition Byut bloc, which trails closely behind Regions with 25 to 30 per cent of voter support.

The government has denied giving preferential favour to Mr Akhmetov, who was not available for comment.

Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's pro-western president, has sharply criticised Mr Yanukovich's handling of privatisation.

The Dniproenergo transaction is the latest in a string of controversial privatisation tenders through which domestic and Russian businessmen have grabbed prized assets at fire-sale prices.

Ms Tymoshenko's bloc warned that the government might tender prized assets to allies through rushed sales during the political campaign before being swept out of power.

The government has recently announced plans to sell several large enterprises this autumn, including a vast chemical plant valued at $1bn and minority stakes in six electricity utilities.

Ms Tymoshenko said her party would seek to reverse bogus sales as she did during her brief 2005 tenure as premier following the Orange Revolution, when her government reversed the sale of Ukraine's flagship steel mill, Kryvorizhstal, sold controversially in 2004 during Mr Yanukovich's first tenure as premier.

Mr Akhmetov and a partner bought the Kryvorizhstal mill for $800m in a tender process that excluded foreign bidders. It was resold in 2005 to Mittal Steel for $4.8bn.

Source: MSNBC

Political Storm Starts To Brew In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- As the dog days of summer empty the streets of Kiev, the residents of this capital escape the heat to the comfortable sea breezes of the Crimean coast and other cooling venues.

Viktor Yushchenko at an exhibit to victims of Stalin's forced starvations
They also leave behind the early rumblings of the "extra Rada elections," the reprise of the March 2006 parliamentary (Rada) election, which cemented the fall from grace of Orange Revolution hero President Viktor Yushchenko, and catapulted back into the premiership his chief rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

Maneuvers

Beginning last spring, Yushchenko and the remnants of his former Orange Revolution allies organized a series of political and legal maneuvers designed to force a rematch of the 2006 election, without which the Orange forces faced a continuing hemorrhage of support in the parliament.

The result was that Yushchenko was becoming a lame duck with years left in his presidency.

The reasons for all this are multiple, critical and simultaneously arcane, self-serving and, most likely, unconstitutional.

However, with the rules of the game still evolving in Ukraine and other former Soviet states, the rules are made to be broken.

As far as the population is concerned, there is a dread of the end of summer, not just because of the coming of winter, but also because of the blizzard of a new political campaign climaxing on Sept. 30.

Stalemate

As the political stalemate regarding the reality of the preterm parliamentary elections moved to a climax in late spring, the competing forces started to attempt to involve the police and Interior Ministry forces in enforcing the competing visions of each side.

Rumors of troop movements and counter movements swirled around Kiev.

This development could have proven to be the biggest miscalculation of both camps.

The people of Ukraine have no time for trouble.

In recent years, the economy, along with the rest of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet states, has begun to boom.

The people of Ukraine do not want this progress impeded by the political battles of the ruling privileged.

Ineptitude

The situation is also very awkward for the United States.

The U.S. invested considerable resources in the Orange Revolution and Ukraine's subsequent tilt to the west -- away from Russia.

The ineptitude of the Yushchenko presidency and the emergence of the Russian-leaning Yanukovych have proved to be yet another foreign policy embarrassment for the U.S. administration.

But the administration has no one to blame but itself.

After urging Yushchenko to campaign on a premise of moving Ukraine to the West, the doors to real economic progress were left closed.

Although Yushchenko was greeted by the West as a democratic hero, World Trade Organization accession, which could greatly expand Ukraine's trade opportunities, is still unachieved.

As well, European Union membership is still probably a decade away and NATO membership is still anathema to many Ukrainians.

There are, however, multiple points of optimism and positive development.

One enduring and historic legacy of the Orange Revolution is that, so far, all that's happening is taking place in the spotlight of a democratic process, and both camps have stepped back from the brink of violence.

Stark contrast

This is in stark contrast to the environment in the Russian Federation, where the great bear to the north has constricted democracy and dissent to a level unseen since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Although the Ukrainian citizenry will remain apathetic regarding the upcoming "Battle for the Rada II," they will participate in celebration of Ukraine's status as the most democratic of the core states of the former Soviet Union.

Source: Courier Post

Putin’s Fanatical Youth Brigade Targets Britain

LONDON, England -- A Russian activist expected to take over a sinister youth group with ties to the Kremlin has warned that a campaign of harassment against the British ambassador in Moscow will be resumed if he shows support for the country’s beleaguered opposition in the run-up to parliamentary elections in December.

Members of Putin’s fanatical youth brigade "Nashi"
Nikita Borovikov, 26, who is being groomed to take over Nashi, a 100,000-strong youth movement, later this year, gave a vigorous defence of a previous campaign against Anthony Brenton. The envoy was stalked for several months, an experience he called “psychological harassment bordering on violence”.

“I don’t see anything wrong in the way Nashi expressed its displeasure at the fact that Brenton attended an opposition conference,” said Borovikov. “If he thinks we broke any laws he is welcome to sue.

“Should he again express support for people we think are traitors and fascists, we will do exactly the same. We see it as our duty as patriotic citizens to make sure he hears our protests.”

Shortly after Brenton spoke at a conference last year organised by Other Russia, a coalition of opposition groups headed by Garry Kasparov, the former world chess champion, militants from Nashi, which means “our own”, followed the ambassador for six months with a banner demanding he apologise.

They shouted abuse as he shopped for cat food, obstructed his car, advertised his movements on the internet and disrupted him when he spoke publicly. The campaign stopped some weeks after the Foreign Office lodged a complaint with the Russian foreign ministry.

“What’s the problem?” asked Borovikov. “Why can’t Britain, which is always preaching about democracy, stand someone staging a peaceful protest?”

Renewed intimidation of the ambassador would anger the Foreign Office and further damage Anglo-Russian relations at a time when they are at their most strained since the end of the cold war following Moscow’s refusal to extradite Andrei Lugovoi, the prime suspect in the murder of the former KGB officer Alexander Litvin-enko in London.

Polite, clean-cut and articulate, the young commissar – as the movement’s deputy leaders are known in honour of Bolshe-vik officials – said he was against extremism but at times his views seemed to differ little from those of generations of KGB cold warriors.

Borovikov, who declined to be photographed, said Nashi believed the West was seeking a revolution in Russia similar to popular revolts in the former Soviet states of Georgia and Ukraine. In tune with thinking in the Kremlin, which argues that the uprisings were the work of western intelligence, Nashi says it is determined to prevent a west-ern-backed coup when Russia votes for a parliament in December and a president in March.

“The US, Britain and the rest of Europe don’t like the fact that Russia is becoming strong again,” said Borovikov. “They want to get their hands on our oil and gas and are plotting to try to bring in a government which is open to influence. We will do all we can to safeguard our interests and independence.”

Some liberals call them “Nash-ists”, a play on “fascists”, but the group was modelled on the Komsomol, the Communist party youth organisation. It was inspired by Vladislav Surkov, a close aide to President Vladimir Putin who wanted to protect the Kremlin from any uprising such as the one that toppled the government of Ukraine.

Most independent experts believe Ukraine’s “orange revolution” was a genuine popular protest movement but the Kremlin’s mistrust of the West was fuelled by evidence that the US State Department helped fund it.

With Kremlin funding and members from 50 Russian cities, Nashi has become a powerful tool in the drive to boost patriotism among the country’s youth. Its activists march in T-shirts emblazoned with Putin’s portrait. The group’s flag, a diagonal white cross on a red background, mixes Soviet and Russian imperial imagery.

Besides harassing the British ambassador, the group has also campaigned to mobilise blood donors and crack down on alcohol sales to children. Other activities are more disquieting.

Each year the group holds a “summer camp” – Putin and several other Kremlin figures have attended – and this year activists put up large posters of Kasparov and Mikhail Kasy-anov, the former prime minister turned opposition figure, that had been altered to make them look like prostitutes.

When Estonia, the tiny Baltic state, angered the Kremlin in May by moving a Soviet-era military monument, Nashi activists stormed a press conference by Estonia’s ambassador, retreating only when the diplomat’s bodyguards sprayed them with mace.

Moving Together, the youth movement from which Nashi evolved, staged public book burnings of works it regarded as unpatriotic.

“Nashi will do all it can to help pro-Kremlin parties in the December parliamentary elections,” Borovikov said. “We’ll be picketing the opposition to make sure young people understand that these are puppets of the West who only want to sell out our country.”

While Nashi has condemned nationalism, critics say the Kremlin’s endorsement of the youth group’s fervent brand of patriotism has encouraged antiwestern sentiment and intolerance. Last week a member of Kasparov’s party was taken to hospital after being badly beaten by unidentified assailants.

Since coming to power nearly eight years ago, Putin, most recently seen parading a bare chest during a fishing holiday designed to underscore his “strong-man” credentials, has been at the forefront of efforts to make his country more patriotic.

The West was alarmed by the resumption last month of reconnaissance flights by Russian bombers along western Europe’s borders, and the aggressiveness is expected to intensify: Russia is set to bolster its military and boost its overseas espionage.

“The worrying thing is that whereas 15 years ago young Russians embraced the West with great enthusiasm, now more and more look to us with deep-seated mistrust,” said a former senior British diplomat. “It would not matter, were it not for the fact that they are Russia’s next generation of political leaders.”

Who are they?

How did Nashi start? It was conceived three years ago by an aide to Vladimir Putin who believed a youth movement could be mobilised to fight any attempt to replicate Ukraine’s “orange” revolution in Russia.

What are its aims? To promote patriotism and politicise younger people.

Who backs Nashi? It is said to have grown to a force of 100,000, funded by the Kremlin.

Source: Times On Line

Shevchenko Told To Be Patient

LONDON, England -- The Ukraine international endured a tough first season in the Premiership last year and didn’t look close to justifying his £30 million ($60.5 million) price tag.

Chelsea striker Andriy Shevchenko has been told to be patient and earn his place in the starting line-up.

Touted as the key to Chelsea’s European dominance, the AC Milan legend failed to hit the back of the net as prolifically as he had done earlier in his career, doing so just 14 times in 51 appearances.

During the summer there had been talk of Sheva moving back to Milan or even returning to Dynamo Kiev on loan, however with the transfer window now closed, he must stay and fight for his place.

The arrival of Claudio Pizarro at Stamford Bridge this summer put further doubt over Sheva’s starting credentials, but assistant manager Steve Clarke insists that despite the 30-year-old’s past achievements, he must wait for his opportunity like everybody else.

"He's got to wait for his opportunity and, when he gets it, he has to take it," urged Clarke.

"That's the situation with a lot of players at the club.

"Didier is the striker, Claudio Pizarro has done very well while Kalou played the first game against Birmingham and I thought he was probabley our best, more exciting and dangerous player.

"So there are another three strikers there as well as Shevchenko."

Source: Goal UK

Ukraine Street Kids Hit by AIDS

KIEV, Ukraine -- About 100,000 indigent Ukrainian children are the most exposed to HIV-AIDS, according to a report from the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF)'s office in this capital.

Sergey Kushnir, 14 with a plastic bag filled with a glue for sniffing screams in the sewer where he lives on the outskirts of Odessa, Ukraine. Almost all street children use drugs.
One in five children living on the streets without parents was infected with the so-called disease of the 20th century, Jaremy Hartley, representative of that organization in Ukraine, stated.

The percentage of children in those conditions is much higher than the 1.5 registered in the 15 to 49 year old group, the worst rate in Europe.

The violation of human rights in children working on the streets takes place despite this country ratifying a UN convention in that sense and Parliamentary approval of a plan of action to defend children's rights, the official denounced.

In Ukraine, almost 11,000 babies have been born of sero-positive mothers, and 186 of them have already died.

Eighty percent of AIDS patients are below 30 years old.

Source: Prensa Latina