Revolution Now

KIEV, Ukraine -- Democrat Saakashvili did what dictator Shevardnadze had never done. He used tear gas and rubber bullets against peaceful marchers in Tbilisi. Democrat Yushchenko did what dictator Kuchma had never done. He dissolved parliament in spite of the Constitution.

Viktor Yushchenko (L) with Mikhail Saakashvili
Events in Georgia in 2003 and in 2004 in Ukraine were not revolutions. Both countries have simply changed presidents without changing the system of power. In spite of the people’s expectations, both Yushchenko and Saakashvili renewed authoritarian rule set by their predecessors.

Moreover, both presidents went even further than their ‘political fathers’ – Shevardnadze and Kuchma. They began to compete with Putin and Lukashenka in the nomination of “Dictator.”

Both of them, like Shevardnadze and Kuchma, will be overthrown by the people.

1. THE SYSTEM AND THE REVOLUTION

Ukraine, Georgia, Russia and other post soviet countries come from the same state – USSR. In the early 1990s the system of oligarchic capitalism was established in these countries.

A small group of people received a great part of the state property due to their connections in the authority, privatization frauds and ‘shock therapy’.

This social group of capitalists, called oligarchs by mass media, together with the high ranked state official and top management became the favorites of the new social system.

To survive and develop this system requires a special political structure and governance style. This is authoritarian regime, something like a presidential republic. This regime was established in all post-soviet countries.

But ‘outsiders’ of the system (i.e. all other social groups) did not like such state of things. Hired workers and pensioners did not like their place in the outskirts of life while small and middle sized business refused to accept monopolization of all business spheres and lack of competition.

In the late 1990s post soviet countries lived through social explosions. It does not mean that only poor people came out to the streets demanding a piece of bread (although this factor must not be underestimated). The thing is that ‘outsiders’ felts the courage and strength to change the system.

Ukraine was the first country to protest against the regime. In 2000, a protest action “Ukraine without Kuchma” began. In autumn 2001, Georgia witnessed protest action “Georgia without Shevardnadze” (they followed Ukraine’s example), and in spring 2002 thousands of people came to the streets in Kishenyov, Moldova.

Despite the fact that every country had its own reasons to protest (murder of journalist Gongadze in Ukraine, search in Rustavi-2 TV company in Georgia and change of school curriculum in Moldova), all these rallies has social backgrounds.

Thousands of Ukrainians even those who did not know Georgiy Gongadze came to Kyiv’s streets because they were tired of social injustice. Thousands of Georgians, even those who had nothing to do with the television and had been never bothered with the freedom of speech came to Rustaveli square. Discharge of President Kuchma was a number one demand of the people. But still, change of the social, economic and political system was their main demand. In spring 2001, sociologists first registered popularity of the prevailing ideas of the parliamentary republic in Ukraine.

Having gained a number of tactical victories (for example discharge of heads of Security Service and Interior Ministry) protesters both in Ukraine and in Georgia failed to win strategically. Both Kuchma and Shevardnadze preserved their offices and the system of power remained unchanged.

But Ukraine without Kuchma and Georgia without Shevardnadze became the first stage of democratic revolutions in these countries. In 2001, a democratic revolution failed to become a social reality but it became a part of people’s thoughts and soles.

After that even journalists who obeyed owners of media holdings started protesting against one-sided media policy. We knew that the revolution was going on even without protest rallies. We knew that the second stage of the democratic revolution was inevitable. We did not know when it would happen.

There is another important factor. Ukraine without Kuchma and Georgia without Shevardnadze were civil movements and no political party or its leader could run these rallies.

The fact that we had no answer to the question “Ukraine without Kuchma, so with whom is Ukraine?” was our advantage. This helped us unite around the idea of changing the system, which Mr. Kuchma feared most of all. Without any exaggeration, one can say that it was then in the early 2000s during the first stage of democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia that the civil society was born. These were the people who refused to accept injustice.

2. CHANGES WITHOUT CHANGES

The second stage came so fast that no one really expected it. In November 2003 Georgians overthrew Shevardnadze’s regime, in December 2004 Ukraine witnessed the last days of Mr. Kuchma’s reign. In 2005, Kyrgyzstan waved good-bye to Akaev.

In all countries mass protests were caused by elections. But people in Kyiv, Tbilisi and Bishkek wanted more. They wanted not only to change authoritarian regimes but change their lives.

But people standing on the stage set on Maidan in Kyiv reduced all demands of the people to one – “Yushchenko is the President.” They never wanted to change the system. They wanted to chair it. Events in Kyiv and Tbilisi in 2004 and 2003 became a political but not a civil action.

Unfortunately, a group of politicians and oligarchs who used to serve regimes of Shevardnadze and Kuchma managed to take advantage of people’s aspirations. Ukrainians changed the president but the constitutional reform that has slightly reduced the president’s authority became the only systemic change. In Georgia Mr. Saakashvili chose to keep the authoritarian system unchanged.

The thing is that state bourgeois is divided into clans that compete with each other. State power is the battlefield in this fight. At the same time, state power is the administrative and financial resource for such oligarchic clans.

In 2004, having taken advantage of mass protests, people close to Yushchenko (so-called ‘dear friends’) and Tymoshenko (Hubsky, Abdulin, Zhevago), who had earned their fortunes in Kuchma’s era, defeated the Donetsk clan, thus becoming the new favorites of the system.

Both Orange governments (Tymoshenko’s and Yekhanurov’s) never intended to change anything in the social and economic life of the people. From revolutionists they turned into counter-revolutionists.

Their goal was adjusting existing schemes of capital accumulation to the new authority. The Orange Counter-revolution personified by authoritarian parties like NU-NS and the BYuT is going to abolish the only achievement of the year 2004 – the Constitutional Reform.

In fact, that was the reason why Viktor Yushchenko called an early parliamentary election. Cancellation of this reform as well as share of capital and state power are the main negotiations subjects between Yushchenko’s dear friends and Akhmetov’s oligarchs.

One journalist said that DFPR party will run Ukraine. DFPR reads as follows: Dear Friends and the Party of Regions. However, whatever coalition is formed in parliament one of the clans will lose. The winner will take everything. Only the citizens of Ukraine will see no changes.

In 2006, disappointment of the people in the Orange leaders resulted in the high election results of the Party of Regions. In 2007, success of the BYuT and Lytvyn Bloc, as well as failure of the Socialist Party is not the main result of the election. The most important thing is the highest number in Ukraine’s history of those who voted ‘against all’.

One third of Ukrainians refused to choose between the orange and the blue-and-white oligarchs. Voting ‘none of the above’ is now not a passive but the most active civil position. It proves that the society is discouraged by the current state of things which will end in the third stage of a democratic revolution. This will be a true revolution which will destroy everyone, both orange and blue-and-white. This revolution will lay foundation of social changes.

Neither Ukraine without Kuchma nor the events of 2004 were a true revolution because they never changed the system. Thus, social reasons which forced people to come into streets in 2000 and 2004 are still acute. This deep social discouragement must have its outlet. That is why Ukrainians will rise once again. Revolution is not over.

3. GEORGIA AS A MIRROR OF UKRAINIAN REVOLUTION

These words would be a theoretical assumption if it were not for the riot in Georgia. Georgian referred to Ukraine’s experience during the protest action Georgia without Shevardnadze. Now, they are ahead of us. If the revolution broke out in Georgia it will soon come to Ukraine.

On November 2nd, the third stage of a democratic revolution started in Tbilisi. This is a civil stage, without any political interference. Rallies in Tbilisi, Kutaisi and Poti are organized by the political parties sometimes with a different ideology. But they all have a very clear program: “Georgia without the president”, which also means “Georgia for the parliamentary republic.”

Cruelly beaten by the police thousands of Georgians are defending democracy in their country. Even if Saakashvili manages to temporarily preserve power by resorting to a forceful scenario, introducing the state of emergency and shutting up opposition mass media, changes in Georgia after these events are inevitable.

This “baptism of blood” changed Georgians. Most importantly, they must not repeat their own mistake by substituting Saakashvili with the new dictators like Defense Minister Okruashvili or Speaker Burdzhanadze who have suddenly turned into oppositionists and peacemakers.

Hopefully, Georgian revolution can do without the help of oligarchs Berezovsky and Patarkatsishvili who have brought Saakashvili to power in exchange of considerable business preferences in this country.

As to accusations that the riot in Georgia has been initiated from outside the country, this is not the problems of the protesting people. This is the problem of dictators who seek traces of Moscow and Washington in mass protests instead of analyzing own policy that resulted in this riot.

Of course, parliamentary republic is not the best system of power. However, there is no better system now. Parliamentary republic will not resolve all problems but it will unbalance administrative resource (rule of the President’s Secretariat and appointment of governors by the President). It will also enlarge representation in authority of all social groups.

Parliamentary model will promote freedom of speech and conscience in the country. Small and middle-sized business will profit from this model of power which will introduce competition in the market instead of monopolizing the national economy.

Other social groups will not profit from such a change that much. But switch to the parliamentary republic is the first step in the right direction.

Georgians set us an example. Events in Georgia are a warning signal to Yushchenko and his administration. However, Ukraine President and his entourage have not learned a single lesson from mass protests in Georgia.

Like a Georgian dictator Saakashvili, Viktor Yushchenko wants to establish control over all security agencies, including the Interior Ministry, which is the coalition’s quota, as provided by the Constitution. Does he want to bring interior forces to the capital like he intended to do it in May of this year?

Like a Georgian dictator Saakashvili, Viktor Yushchenko is trying to control public opinion through discharges of journalists (Novy Kanal and 5 Kanal) and closing TV projects (for instance, Double Proof on 1+1 TV Channel).

Like a Georgian dictator Saakashvili, Viktor Yushchenko was breaking up opposition rallies with the help of the Orange ministers in 2005-2006. Like a Pakistani dictator Musharraf, Viktor Yushchenko dissolves parliament and discharges unsuitable judges.

Unfortunately, all these attacks at the civil rights meet no resistance of the public in Ukraine and in the world community that has been keeping a watchful eye on observance of human rights in our country. I think that the public will react. But that is not the point.

The point is that Georgia has showed us: any authoritarian regime will be overthrown, no matter who personifies it: Saakashvili, Yushchenko, or Putin.

DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION IS NOT OVER!

Source: Ukrayinska Pravda