Coalition Doubtful Ahead Of Rada Opening

KIEV, Ukraine -- Leading politicians don’t expect a coalition agreement to emerge as they prepare for the new parliament’s first session on Nov. 23, noting that the likelihood of an Orange parliamentary majority has grown fairly faint.

Yulia Tymoshenko, the leading candidate for prime minister.
“I am not a pessimist, but a well-informed person,” Yuriy Yekhanurov, former prime minister and close ally of President Viktor Yushchenko, told reporters on Nov. 20. He has been critical of the prospect of Yulia Tymoshenko’s return to the post of prime minister.

“I think we have serious work ahead of us. The main matter is that Ukrainians very poorly listen to one another.”

The Ukrainian Constitution requires that a coalition agreement is signed by all its participants within 30 days of the parliament’s first session.

Given that three Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense (OUPSD) deputies have yet to support the agreement to form the Democratic Forces Coalition, it’s highly unlikely a coalition will emerge during the first session, politicians and analysts have said.

“Everyone will sing the Ukrainian anthem with inspiration, and then break for writing their statements on forming factions and officially select faction leaders,” Yekhanurov said. “I think we won’t be able to do more than that.”

According to the Constitution, coalition formation takes place in three stages: The first parliamentary session is held within 30 days of official publication of election results (Oct. 27), a coalition agreement is signed within 30 days of the first session and a prime minister is nominated within 30 days after the agreement is signed.

Numerous formalities are scheduled for the Nov. 23 session, which are expected to be well-attended by Ukraine’s current and past leaders. President Viktor Yushchenko’s press service said Nov. 21 that the head of state was so far not planning to attend the Rada’s opening ceremonies.

The outgoing Cabinet of Ministers led by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych must officially resign their posts at the session, becoming acting ministers until a new government is elected by parliament.

A rotating temporary presidium with representatives of the parliament’s five factions will lead the sessions until a new chairman is elected, explained Yuriy Syrotiuk, a political analyst with the Kyiv-based Open Society Foundation, funded by American, British and Polish donors.

The number of parliamentary committees will have to be determined – there were 26 in the Rada’s fifth convocation and 24 in the fourth, he said.

Each deputy must also submit a statement declaring faction membership.

After these procedures, the national deputies could theoretically form the new parliamentary coalition by signing an agreement, which should occur before a new chairman is elected.

However, the Democratic Forces Coalition – declared by the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, Byut, and the pro-presidential OUPSD – doesn’t have support from at least three OUPSD politicians: National Security and Defense Council secretary Ivan Pliushch, Ihor Kril and Vasyl Petiovka. The latter two are considered to be closely aligned with Presidential Secretariat Chair Viktor Baloha.

Most political observers expect a repeat of last year, when drafting and signing a coalition agreement was dragged out to the last minute of the month-long deadline.

The pro-Western coalition revealed further instability when several OUPSD politicians stated this week they would not support Tymoshenko for prime minister or Viacheslav Kyrylenko for parliament chair.

After a coalition agreement emerges, the voting for the next parliamentary speaker should occur within a month.

The Presidential Secretariat now supports Pliushch, who has headed the Rada twice in the past, for the Rada chair over Kyrylenko, a younger and fiercely pro-Western politician.

For weeks, Tymoshenko and Kyrylenko assured the public they would gain support to form their coalition.

But while Kyrylenko was allowed to make such statements, he never truly enjoyed the support of the party’s hierarchy, particularly Baloha, said Ivan Lozowy, president of the Kyiv-based Institute of Statehood and Democracy, financed by Ukrainian businessmen.

“Knowing the public’s expectations, Tymoshenko and Kyrylenko tried to cut off the Baloha camp, which was the natural thing to do,” he said.

“Without an economic base, though, people ignore Kyrylenko because everyone knows who holds the real power – Baloha. Kyrylenko was never a real threat to him, and served as a useful pawn during the elections.”

Yushchenko has trusted Baloha with much of the decision-making surrounding the coalition-forming, Lozowy said.

Meanwhile, the Party of Regions has insisted no parliamentary chair or prime minister can be selected without its approval. The party flexed its political might throughout the week, demonstrating its indifference to being shut out of the potential Democratic Forces Coalition.

Region’s Raisa Bohatyriova said on Nov. 20 that her party and its allies could support Pliushch’s candidacy, suggesting they hold the trump card.

They are against Kyrylenko because of his strong advocacy of Ukrainian cultural and historical issues, and consistently pro-Western positions, including support for NATO membership.

Kyrylenko’s candidacy is further threatened by the secret ballot vote for the parliamentary chair, which will make undermining his candidacy quite easy, Syrotiuk said.

Meanwhile, Volodymyr Lytvyn, leader of the eponymous bloc, said his faction won’t support any candidate for parliamentary speaker.

“We don’t need to assume responsibility for the work of political forces, which divided posts among themselves and want someone to support their positions with their votes,” Lytvyn said.

Meanwhile, opposition to Tymoshenko’s candidacy for premier has gained momentum among OUPSD politicians.

Anatoliy Matvienko said he opposes any candidate for prime minister who will compete for the Ukrainian presidency in the 2010 elections, a direct reference to Tymoshenko.

Source: Kyiv Post