Coalition Deal In Doubt

KIEV, Ukraine -- More than a month has passed since early parliamentary elections were held in Ukraine, but the country is not likely to get a workable government and coalition any time soon, much less one made up of parties heir to the 2004 Orange Revolution, analysts say.

Former Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov, a pro-presidential lawmaker, is considered one of the main opponents of a revived Orange coalition in which Yulia Tymoshenko would once again serve as prime minister.
Orange Revolution hero President Viktor Yushchenko called the snap elections in the spring to halt the usurpation of his executive authority by the coalition of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the villain of the Orange Revolution.

Now, the president looks set to once again share power with Yanukovych’s Regions faction, sidelining the Byut faction of Orange Revolution heroine Yulia Tymoshenko and prolonging the country’s political instability.

“We had an agreement with Byut that we would work together in parliament. But we also should be open to those [other parties] that want to be in a coalition,” Yuriy Yekhanurov, a close confidant of Yushchenko and member of the pro-presidential Our Ukraine grouping, told journalists last week.

“This means, primarily, of course, the Bloc of [Volodymyr] Lytvyn, and also the Party of Regions should be in the majority. And I insist that they be included in the [coalition] talks,” he added.

Following a stunning showing by Tymoshenko’s Byut faction in the Sept. 30 election, the pro-Western Orange parties got a chance to form a majority of two seats in the next parliament and send the eastern-looking Regions and Communists into the opposition.

The Orange parties paraded their would-be coalition agreement after the official results of the elections were announced in the middle of last month. But the coalition process is dragging on.

In an Oct. 28 interview on Ukrainian Television, the president himself seemed to waffle on the issue.

“As regards my position on the formation of a coalition, I would say that first and foremost the coalition must correspond to the results of the elections. Therefore, it seems to me that there is one answer: The coalition must be formed in the context of a coalition of democratic forces,” he said.

But, the president added that an Orange coalition would be complicated due to its slim majority of parliamentary votes: “Is it easy to deprive the democratic forces of these votes? Yes, I think it would be easy.”

It was the president who allowed Yanukovych to recover from his humiliating defeat in the 2004 presidential elections. Regions came in first in the March 2006 parliamentary poll, but were not able to form a coalition with the Communists alone until the Orange-aligned Socialists broke rank.

The president’s party was accused by observers at the time of holding coalition talks with Orange parties and the Regions simultaneously. The 2006 Orange split was preceded by infighting in 2005, which ended in Yushchenko replacing Tymoshenko as premier with Yekhanurov. Since then, trust among the former revolutionary allies has been weak.

Yevhen Korniychuk, a Byut lawmaker involved in the coalition talks, has accused Yekhanurov and other members of the president’s Our Ukraine grouping of sabotaging the alliance.

For example, he said Yekhanurov and Our Ukraine member Anatoliy Matviyenko have already started criticizing Byut policy initiatives, such as the repayment of Soviet-era bank deposits.

“My personal feeling is that they are apparently being influenced by the Party of Regions,” he said.

Political analyst Andriy Yermolayev said Yushchenko doesn’t like the idea of a slim coalition between the two Orange parties, because it would limit his own power base.

“Yushchenko realizes that he needs some kind of a grand coalition, as the lawmakers in his own faction are more interested in pursuing their own interests.”

Unlike Regions, Byut and the Communists, Our Ukraine lawmakers are sure they’re on the right team. The president’s Our Ukraine party only got its 14 percent of the vote on Sept. 30 by blocking with the People’s Self-Defense Party of former Socialist Yuriy Lutsenko. Byut came in second, receiving 30 percent of the vote – an increase of almost a third from March 2006.

Regions came in first with 34 percent – not enough to form a coalition with its Communist allies (5 percent), even with the help of the Lytvyn Bloc, which barely slipped past the 3 percent barrier.

In addition, blocking with Byut would return Tymoshenko to head the government, which equals or exceeds the presidency in executive power thanks to Yanukovych’s constitutional maneuvering over the past year.

If, on the other hand, Yushchenko could set himself up as a power broker between the irreconcilable Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, he might be able to hold on to the presidency after 2009. But the path between then and now is fraught with instability.

According to Yermolayev, “Both the Orange and the [Regions] Blue factions know the current coalition being tabled isn’t workable.”

Regions, along with the Communists and the Bloc of Lytvyn, would be able to keep parliament in a deadlock from the opposition. Byut wants real power in the next parliament and government, or they are prepared to fight it out during the resulting power struggle right up until 2009.

To avoid such an outcome, some kind of union between Regions and the president’s party is being sought, Yermolayev said.

Unfortunately, getting into bed again with Regions’ Donetsk clan would be a slap in the face to Orange voters.

That’s why the nation can expect more instability, which Yushchenko can use as a pretext to work with Regions.

“It doesn’t matter whether it’s provoked by the issue of approving next year’s budget or the vote for Tymoshenko. The Orange coalition will prove unworkable and lead to a period of instability that could last into the first quarter of 2008.”

It was Tymoshenko who pushed through legislation that obliges lawmakers to vote along with their parties or risk losing their mandates. However, the supporting draft laws were never passed. There is still no procedure for ejecting lawmakers for voting against party lines.

Moreover, currently legislation allows lawmakers to vote secretly on Tymoshenko’s nomination as premier, which will be able to be blocked by just two votes.

The result of this or one of a half-dozen other potential destabilizing scenarios would prolong the current absence of a parliament and thus make it politcally acceptable for Yushchenko to seek a compromise.

Yermolayev said this could either be the outright announcement of a coalition between the Regions and Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense or the introduction of a legal mechanism that would allow lawmakers to choose whether they want to join the majority or opposition, regardless of how they were voted in.

Source: Kyiv Post