Vote Fraud Fears Spread Ahead Of Poll

KIEV, Ukraine -- With so much at stake in terms of economic patronage and executive privilege, Ukraine’s snap elections were expected to be fierce. The fact that voters have more of the same to choose from has meant that the race will be close as well.


And tensions seem to be reaching a boiling point with recently-observed virtual acknowledgements of defeat by top contenders crying fraud before the votes have even been counted.

The Regions Party of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, represented by the color blue, has sent out signals as recently as this month that they might drop out of the race if they feel it’s unfair.

More recently, the Regions have predicted massive falsification by their opponents and are gearing up for large street-side protests to challenge what they claim will be an attempt to rob them of their likely victory in the decisive vote.

Orange President Viktor Yushchenko, represented by the Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense Bloc, struck back in the same vein from the campaign trail on Sept. 25.

“Why does Yanukovych speak of falsification at each of his rallies? The reason is that he is planning falsification. It will happen. What I’m talking about is how do we deal with this problem,” he said in Sumy Region.

But the president’s response, a warning to his nemesis from Orange Revolution days, was equally fatalistic.

“I’d like to tell Yanukovych personally and other colleagues as well that the government is personally responsible for holding a free, fair and democratic election,” Yushchenko said.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), which is controlled by Yushchenko, backed the president’s claims with a report that an election council in the eastern city of Kharkiv had registered close to 100,000 non-existent persons on voter rolls.

The SBU has also in recent days launched probes into election fraud attempts in other eastern cities where Regions support is high, including Mariupol.

The Regions’ propaganda machine has not been idle. The industrialist-backed party has in recent days systematically disseminated warnings that the vote would be rigged against their favor in a would-be effort to legitimize their claim to victory, and trigger massive protests if votes don’t tally to their advantage.

“For the entire campaign, the Orange have tried to mislead the people. Truth to them is not important. Winning at any cost is all that matters,” reads a Regions party statement dated Sept. 25.

Also from the campaign trail, Yanukovych accused his opponents of buying votes. “We have information that they are paying for every vote,” he said in Poltava Region.

And like the president, Yanukovych has offered voters an additional interpretation of the alleged cheating.

“We see that the Orange team ... aren’t winning and they feel it. Their ratings are falling everywhere. They see that they are losing and therefore preparing falsifications,” he said on Poltava TV.

Recent polls suggest both the Orange and Blue camps are in a dead heat race where a single percentage point could claim victory. Yanukovych’s party could garner anywhere from 30-38 percent support; 10-14 percent of voter support could go to Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense, with 20-28 percent going to opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko.

The Communists and a few fringe parties could pass the 3 percent barrier, inheriting a kingmaker position in coalition talks. Other smaller parties could be key in stripping away valuable percentage points.

Despite Ukraine’s longstanding reputation as a country of dirty politics, corrupt officialdom and a feeble court system, last year’s parliamentary poll was dubbed the fairest ever.

This year, however, Yushchenko and Yanukovych are equally well-placed to influence events from a position of administrative power.

The ambitious opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko is also fighting hard, but none of the leaders has full control of the situation and there is no referee.

This leaves nobody in charge in a dangerous tug of war for power. With so much at stake, the competing sides seem, once again as in Orange Revolution days, eager to take extreme measures to claim victory.

To make the choice more complicated for voters, Yanukovych’s team has learned to parrot the political program of the Orange parties.

Accused of Soviet-style authoritarianism and mass fraud during the 2004 presidential race, the premier has undergone an image makeover that attempts to steal the democratic wind from his opponents’ sails.

Yanukovych has also campaigned vigorously beyond his home territory in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, where Tymoshenko continues to make some headway.

But the real battle appears to be centered on Kyiv, where the votes will be counted. The capital is where Yanukovych had his fraud-marred presidential victory overturned by the country’s Supreme Court.

This time around, the premier has taken precautions, gathering his supporters on Maidan to protest against rigged voting before it happens.

“We have the power to prevent this,” he said, “therefore, we will watch carefully and react if necessary,” Yanukovych told voters in Poltava.

Oles Dony, a Kyiv-based political analyst who is on the party list for Yushchenko’s bloc, said falsification in the Sept. 30 vote is likely by all sides, and not necessarily on orders from above.

“Election officials in small towns don’t need to be prodded to produce favorable results for their mentors in Kyiv,” he said.

Yury Yakymenko, a political analyst at Kyiv’s Razumkov Center, said all the hoopla about falsification is partly just campaign rhetoric that Ukrainians have become accustomed to.

But, he added, it also serves as “psychological preparation of the public to set the stage for the mobilization of protesters in the event of an election defeat.”

According to Yakymenko, the accusations of cheating from both sides indicate that coalition horse trading and backroom deals are likely to stretch on for a long time after election day, yielding the same kind of instability that caused President Yushchenko to call the snap elections last spring in the first place.

Source: Kyiv Post