Political Storm Starts To Brew In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- As the dog days of summer empty the streets of Kiev, the residents of this capital escape the heat to the comfortable sea breezes of the Crimean coast and other cooling venues.

Viktor Yushchenko at an exhibit to victims of Stalin's forced starvations
They also leave behind the early rumblings of the "extra Rada elections," the reprise of the March 2006 parliamentary (Rada) election, which cemented the fall from grace of Orange Revolution hero President Viktor Yushchenko, and catapulted back into the premiership his chief rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

Maneuvers

Beginning last spring, Yushchenko and the remnants of his former Orange Revolution allies organized a series of political and legal maneuvers designed to force a rematch of the 2006 election, without which the Orange forces faced a continuing hemorrhage of support in the parliament.

The result was that Yushchenko was becoming a lame duck with years left in his presidency.

The reasons for all this are multiple, critical and simultaneously arcane, self-serving and, most likely, unconstitutional.

However, with the rules of the game still evolving in Ukraine and other former Soviet states, the rules are made to be broken.

As far as the population is concerned, there is a dread of the end of summer, not just because of the coming of winter, but also because of the blizzard of a new political campaign climaxing on Sept. 30.

Stalemate

As the political stalemate regarding the reality of the preterm parliamentary elections moved to a climax in late spring, the competing forces started to attempt to involve the police and Interior Ministry forces in enforcing the competing visions of each side.

Rumors of troop movements and counter movements swirled around Kiev.

This development could have proven to be the biggest miscalculation of both camps.

The people of Ukraine have no time for trouble.

In recent years, the economy, along with the rest of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet states, has begun to boom.

The people of Ukraine do not want this progress impeded by the political battles of the ruling privileged.

Ineptitude

The situation is also very awkward for the United States.

The U.S. invested considerable resources in the Orange Revolution and Ukraine's subsequent tilt to the west -- away from Russia.

The ineptitude of the Yushchenko presidency and the emergence of the Russian-leaning Yanukovych have proved to be yet another foreign policy embarrassment for the U.S. administration.

But the administration has no one to blame but itself.

After urging Yushchenko to campaign on a premise of moving Ukraine to the West, the doors to real economic progress were left closed.

Although Yushchenko was greeted by the West as a democratic hero, World Trade Organization accession, which could greatly expand Ukraine's trade opportunities, is still unachieved.

As well, European Union membership is still probably a decade away and NATO membership is still anathema to many Ukrainians.

There are, however, multiple points of optimism and positive development.

One enduring and historic legacy of the Orange Revolution is that, so far, all that's happening is taking place in the spotlight of a democratic process, and both camps have stepped back from the brink of violence.

Stark contrast

This is in stark contrast to the environment in the Russian Federation, where the great bear to the north has constricted democracy and dissent to a level unseen since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Although the Ukrainian citizenry will remain apathetic regarding the upcoming "Battle for the Rada II," they will participate in celebration of Ukraine's status as the most democratic of the core states of the former Soviet Union.

Source: Courier Post