Democracy Means Headaches For Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- Since the tumultuous Orange Revolution of 2004 opened the door to democracy in Ukraine, this ex-Soviet republic has lurched from one political showdown into another. This time, however, the stakes are higher.


The latest crisis blew up a week ago when President Viktor Yushchenko ordered Parliament dissolved and called early elections. His longtime foe, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, defied the order, and the parliament, in which he holds a majority, has vowed to continue working.

Now, as it faces another season of harsh words and street demonstrations, this nation of 47 million is facing political paralysis and an array of worst-case scenarios of dueling parliaments, lawmakers behind bars or Yushchenko being unable to hold an election because Yanukovych won't approve the funding.

It all adds up to a prospect that alarms both the West and Russia, and both have appealed for calm.

Unlike neighboring Belarus and Russia, Ukraine has a vibrant democracy and strong opposition forces. What it lacks are clear rules for resolving disputes.

The constitution was hastily rewritten during the 2004 mass protests that swept Yushchenko to power, and is unclear, even contradictory, about where power lies. The court system that could decide these questions is ineffectual and vulnerable to political influence.

The political divide goes deep. Ukraine historically has been tied to Russia, but Yushchenko has sought to steer it toward the European Union, encouraged by the EU's newest members — former communist countries eager for Ukraine to be a friendly buffer between them and a resurgent Russia.

Moscow, meanwhile, is determined to keep its influence. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is based in Ukrainian waters, and Ukrainian pipelines feed Russian oil and gas into Western Europe.

The Kremlin had already suffered embarrassment in 2004 when its favorite, Yanukovych, lost to Yushchenko in a rerun of the presidential election ordered by the Supreme Court after the mass protests of the Orange Revolution.

Yanukovych says he disagrees with the court's decision, but has accepted it, and that Yushchenko should now accept his right to fight the parliamentary dissolution order in another forum — the Constitutional Court.

However, that court has failed to issue any decision in the eight months since its full complement of justices was named, and many consider it susceptible to political pressures. As those pressures built last week, its chief justice tried to resign, but his colleagues stopped him.

The standoff over Parliament began after 11 lawmakers from pro-Yushchenko factions defected to Yanukovych's majority coalition last month. More defections were rumored to be on the way, raising the possibility that Yanukovych would soon have the backing of 300 deputies — enough to override presidential vetoes.

Yushchenko, already unpopular after failing to deliver on promises of reform, seemed in danger of being sidelined altogether. His authority had already been severely damaged when Yanukovych's coalition forced the ouster of Ukraine's pro-Western foreign minister, Borys Tarasyuk — one of two Cabinet ministers the president had the right to appoint under the constitution.

During the Orange Revolution, Yushchenko and Yanukovych were polar opposites. Yushchenko looked West, Yanukovych looked to Russia. As prime minister, Yanukovych has sounded more pro-European, advocating EU membership. But unlike Yushchenko, he is wary of NATO membership, and has expressed some interest in joining a Moscow-dominated economic union.

Both men are also backed by competing alliances of business tycoons which have always played a big role in Ukrainian politics.

Adding to the sense of political disorder is a very Western reform: When Yushchenko came to power, he lifted government controls over the media. Now the political scandals and intrigues play out live on television.

"It looks like one political crisis after another," said analyst Sehriy Taran, "but what we are seeing is really just evidence of a very inexperienced democracy."

Source: Houston Chronicle