Friday, March 31, 2006

Election Politics In Belarus And Ukraine

WASHINGTON, DC -- Voters in Belarus went to the polls last month and re-elected President Alexander Lukashenko, whom critics call the “last dictator in Europe.” The EU and the United States have denounced the elections as a fraud and have pledged to increase sanctions against members of the Lukashenko regime.

President Lukashenko (L) and President Yushchenko

And, in a setback for Ukraine’s reform movement, the pro-Russian “Regions Party” of former Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovych, garnered more of the vote in recent parliamentary elections, than his rivals, both leaders of the 2004 Orange Revolution.

Notwithstanding President Lukashenko’s lopsided re-election victory in what are widely seen as fraudulent elections, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said she thinks a lasting democratic opposition might still emerge in Belarus. And she said the reform movement in Ukraine remains strong despite mixed election results there.

Russian journalist Masha Lipman, of the Carnegie Moscow Center, mocked official election results in Belarus – showing that President Lukashenko won 83 percent of the vote. Speaking with host Judith Latham of VOA News Now’s International Press Club, Ms. Lipman said independent polls gave the president no more than 50 percent, which would still have catapulted him to victory.

Ms. Lipman praised the courage of members of the opposition, many of them young people who were arrested for protesting the election results. Ms. Lipman noted that they have pledged to continue their struggle.

But Dmitri Siderov, Washington bureau chief of Kommersant, a business and political daily in Moscow, was not so impressed by Belarus’ nascent political opposition. Furthermore, he questioned whether European and U.S. sanctions against the government in Minsk would be effective, given the country’s heavy economic dependence on Russia.

However, Iryna Vidanova, editor of the magazine Student Thought in Belarus, was more optimistic than Mr. Siderov about the opposition’s political future and she called it a “great sign” that people had declared publicly that they want change. She suggested it was only a “question of time” before President Lukashenko would have to step down.

But Ukraine’s parliamentary elections demonstrated that even the forces for political and economic reform are vulnerable if they do not deliver on campaign promises. Voters there dealt a stunning blow to Victor Yuschenko’s pro-Western party, which had won a mandate to govern during Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution.

According to journalist Yavhen Hlibovytsky of independent Channel 5 television in Kiev, President Yuschanko’s weakened party will probably form a coalition with his former Prime Minister Yulia Timochanko’s bloc. Nonetheless, Mr. Hlibovysky calls last week’s elections an “incredible achievement” in the democratic process.

And comparing the recent elections in Belarus to the situation in Ukraine in 2004, Mr. Hlibovysky suggested that the political shift in Belarus is “definite,” even if for now, Alexander Lukashenko has managed to suppress the opposition.

Source: Voice of America

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Kyiv Gets First New Mayor In Decade

KIEV, Ukraine -- Kyiv has got its first new mayor in a decade, following the March 26 upset of 67-year-old incumbent Oleksandr Omelchenko by his longtime rival, Leonid Chernovetsky, a businessman and member of Parliament.

Mayor Elect Leonid Chernovetsky

With over 80 percent of the ballots counted on March 29, Chernovetsky had 32 percent of the vote, well ahead of former heavyweight boxing champion Vitaly Klitschko (23 percent) and Omelchenko (21 percent), despite long-running polls showing a different picture.

A poll conducted by Ukrainian Sociological Service between March 9 and March 16 showed Omelchenko ahead with 26 percent of the vote, followed by Klitschko, who represented a coalition between the center-right Pora-Reforms and Order Party with 17 percent, and Chernovetsky, with only 16 percent.

However, as Ukrainian Sociological Service Director Oleksandr Vyshniak pointed out, 27 percent of the city’s 2 million voters were still undecided at the time.

In January 2006, Omelchenko had enjoyed 37 percent of popular support, while Chernovetsky had only 11 percent.

In the end, according to Vyshniak, only 1.3 million Kyivans voted in the mayoral elections on March 26, which is higher than usual.

“Chernovetsky’s rating grew sharply in the last few days before voting,” said Svetlana Kononchuk, a political analyst at the Ukrainian Center for Independent Political Research, who headed Klitschko’s press service during the campaign.

According to her, Chernovetsky did well because he represented change and has built up a reputation as a local philanthropist.

“A lot has changed since the Orange Revolution, but Kyiv has stayed the same,” said Kononchuk.

“Omelchenko was associated in the minds of voters with pre-Maidan,” she said referring to the capital’s main square where the 2004 Orange revolution was centered.

Kyiv is considered an Orange city and Omelchenko was supportive of the revolution. Although he ran as an independent, Omelchenko was offered a place on lists of leading national parties, including the bloc of Viktor Yanukovych, who lost the presidency as a result of the Orange Revolution.

Between January and March, the mayor’s office was rocked by a major housing scandal, in which 1,500 apartment buyers were bilked out of around $100 million by a company called Elite-Center. The city is responsible for issuing construction permits.

As for Klitschko, who simultaneously lost a bid for the national parliament and is widely considered a protege of Omelchenko, who often the boxer’s bouts, Kononchuk said he started the race too late.

“The campaign wasn’t long and people hadn’t gotten used to him yet.”

Klitschko, who ran on an anti-corruption platform, launched his political career immediately after giving up his title.

But appearing at a press conference on March 27 days before Chernovetsky’s victory had been confirmed, Klitschko hugged the new mayor elect and congratulated him on his victory.

“You have to know how to win and how to lose,” said Klitschko.

“I think that my victory is a big present for Ukraine, because I don’t want anything for myself personally, and you all will be convinced of this soon,” Chernovetsky was quoted as saying.

During the same press conference, Chernovetsky took a call on his mobile phone, which he announced was from the president’s office, congratulating him on his victory.

The next day, President Viktor Yushchenko’s press service released a statement denying that it contacted Chernovetsky, explaining that it would wait for the final results.

Chernovetsky is 29th on the pro-presidential Our Ukraine’s party list, which means he is guaranteed a seat in parliament as well.

A pious mayor?

Trained as a lawyer, Chernovetsky is also a self proclaimed Christian activist.

“He (Chernovetsky) is very committed to the truth,” said Adelaja Sunday, senior pastor at the Embassy of God, a Kyiv-based evangelical church.

“He’s been a member of our church for the last 10 year,” said Sunday, adding that they work together to feed over a thousand people a day.

“We supply the people and he supplies the money.”

Widely reputed to control Ukraine’s Pravex-Bank, which is ranked 22 in terms of net assets, which total 400m dollars, Chernovetsky would be well placed to do this.

Sunday said that the homeless and alcoholics that his church helps may not have been influential in the March 26 vote, but other city residents who have heard of the charity work were.

According to Sunday, the Embassy of God has 25,000 regular members in Kyiv, but boasts 250,000 “affiliates” altogether.

Chernovetsky is also no stranger to politics. Months before the tumultuous presidential race that brought Yushchenko to power in 2004, Chernovetsky was included on the party list.

Just months before this, he had made headlines both for trying to unseat Omelchenko using the courts – an attempt which proved unsuccessful – and for his links to the deaths of two Kyiv pedestrians near his residence in the upscale Koncha Zaspa region outside Kyiv.

Both of the pedestrians died on separate occasions in incidents on the road leading to Chernovetsky’s mansion in the elite Koncha Zaspa residential neighborhood. They were run over in 2003 at high speeds by cars linked to Chernovetsky, who happens to be a collector of expensive souped-up automobiles.

He was behind the wheel in the second incident; his wife was a passenger in the first. Neither Chernovetsky nor his driver has been found guilty of any wrongdoing in connection with the incidents.

“In my opinion, it wasn’t so much that Chernovetsky won as that Omelchenko lost,” said Yevhen Poberezhny, executive director of the Ukrainian Committee of Voters, which monitored Ukraine’s elections.

Fresh faces

Chernovetsky and his team didn’t just do well in the mayoral race but in the election to the city’s 120 seat city council.

The Yulia Tymoshenko bloc is expected to get the lions share of council seats, around 33 percent, and according to Dmytro Vydrin, an analyst for the bloc, a coalition is being planned.

“He’s a good politician and businessman, and we have worked well with him in parliament … I think that relations with him on the city council will be good,” Vydrin said.

Chernovetsky’s bloc is expected to come in second place, followed by Our Ukraine, Vydrin said adding that Mykhailo Brodsky, a whistle blowing political figure who merged his party’s into Tymoshenko’s last year, would head the city council.

During the 2004 presidential poll, Brodsky showed up at the Central Electoral Commission in a street cleaner to file his candidacy. Brodsky has also been one of the most outspoken critics of Tymoshenko’s political opponents.

Pollsters were more accurate regarding the future composition of the city council, predicting that Tymoshenko’s bloc would take almost 40 of 120 seats, followed by Our Ukraine and the Regions. Chernovetsky, a fierce opponent of Omelchenko, was considered a wild card.

Omelchenko’s Unity Party had only 15 seats on council, which was recently beefed up from 80 seats, but still maintained considerable influence.

Not only do council members have influence in decisions involving issuance of land plots and granting approval to lucrative real estate projects, following controversial legislation that Yushchenko was forced to sign last year, city councilmen are immune from prosecution.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Thursday, March 30, 2006

Yanukovich Leads In Ukraine With All Votes Counted

KIEV, Ukraine -- Viktor Yanukovich's Russia-backed Regions Party took first place in Ukraine's parliamentary election with 32.12 percent of the vote after all ballots were counted, the Central Election Commission said on Thursday.

Viktor Yanukovich

Pro-Western firebrand Yulia Tymoshenko's bloc maintained its strong showing with 22.27 percent, while President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party was third with 13.94 percent.

Two other parties cleared the three percent barrier to enter parliament -- the Socialist party with 5.67 percent and the Communists with 3.66 percent.

None of the five parties will have an outright majority of 226 votes in the 450-seat parliament to be able to govern alone. Under preliminary estimates, the Regions party will have 186 seats, Tymoshenko's bloc will have 129, Our Ukraine will get 81, the Socialists will have 33 and the Communists 21.

Politicians have already launched coalition talks but they are expected to be long and difficult. Parliament has 30 days to form a coalition and another 30 days to appoint the government.

Source: Reuters

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Mysterious Gas Deal Roils Politics In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- The official residence of the managing director of a company now set to control Ukraine's supply of natural gas is a one-story, clapboard house in a tumbledown village bordering a defunct collective farm outside Moscow. A dirty rug covers the floor, a bare light bulb hangs from the ceiling and scraps of plywood plug gaps in the wall.


Olga Sakharova, 49, lives there with her mother and a German fox terrier called Lyusa, and she has never heard of the director, Oleg Palchikov, who operates a business worth $7 billion a year.

"What boss would want to live here?" Sakharova asked, surprised to learn that she occupied one of the few known addresses of any of the executives of the shadowy gas trading company involved in a controversial deal between Ukraine and Russia that continues to roil politics here in Kiev, nearly 640 kilometers, or 400 miles, away.

The company, RosUkrEnergo, became a broker in a deal to resolve a New Year's confrontation between Russia and Ukraine over the price of natural gas - a deal that has prompted accusations of corruption and almost certainly contributed to President Victor Yushchenko's poor showing in parliamentary elections Sunday, when his party finished a distant third.

The mysteries surrounding the company - ranging from the identity of its owners and the circumstances of its selection, to the places where its executives live and work - reflect the post-Soviet combustion of politics and business that still afflicts Ukraine despite the significant progress that Yushchenko and his allies have made in making the country a freer, more democratic society.

Yulia Tymoshenko, Yushchenko's erstwhile ally in the mass protests that swept him to the presidency in 2004, campaigned fiercely against the deal, citing it as an example of the corruption and untrustworthiness of the leadership of Yushchenko's party, Our Ukraine.

With her party having won significantly more votes than Yushchenko's, according to nearly complete results announced Wednesday, she has now claimed the right to lead the coalition in Parliament representing the reformist, Western-leaning forces who took part in what came to be known as the "Orange Revolution."

And she has promised that one of her first acts as prime minister, should she return to the post she held for the first eight months of Yushchenko's presidency, would be, "by all means," to scuttle the deal and RosUkrEnergo's part in it.

"These are the standards preached by Kuchmaism," she said of the deal in an interview on Wednesday, referring to the scandal-tainted presidency of Ukraine's previous leader, Leonid Kuchma.

Tymoshenko's fierce opposition to the deal echoes her zeal in revisiting scandalous privatizations that took place during Kuchma's tenure, and could complicate efforts to reunite the coalition that swept Yushchenko to power.

Already, Yushchenko and his aides have met with his bitter rival, Victor Yanukovich, whose party won the largest bloc of votes, 31 percent, raising speculation that he would seek a parliamentary alliance that would exclude Tymoshenko. Yushchenko's party announced Wednesday that it would not commit to any coalition until at least April 7.

Reopening the deal could provoke a new conflict with Russia over the supply of natural gas, only months after a New Year's showdown that resulted in a disruption of supplies across Europe, deeply rattling countries that rely heavily on Russian and Central Asian gas that passes through Ukraine's pipelines.

"Any agreement that is unstable is one that is undesirable from the point of view of Europe," said Thane Gustafson, a senior analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

The deal's critics say the instability comes from the murky nature of the arrangement, which granted substantial control over Ukraine's gas market to a little-known company with links to Russia's state energy monopoly, Gazprom, and unknown investors.

Even now, nearly three months after the deal was announced, the ownership and operations of RosUkrEnergo remain murky. Registered in Zug, Switzerland, it is owned half by Gazprom and half by Centragas, an umbrella corporation run by Austria's Raiffeisen Bank for a group of investors whom the bank will not identify, despite pressure from American and European officials.

Officials in Russia and Ukraine have accused one another of having beneficiaries in the company and have provided contradictory accounts of who suggested that RosUkrEnergo be included in the first place.

"This is the Ukrainian part, and you need to ask them," President Vladimir Putin said earlier this month. Yushchenko, by his own accounting, knows no more. "I have personally turned several times to the Russian side to receive this information," he said at a news conference earlier this month. "Unfortunately, as of today, I do not have any information about the founders of this structure."

Executives of the company, some of whom also work for Gazprom itself, declined to discuss the matter in detail. Alexander Medvedev, the director of Gazprom's export arm, Gazexport, and one of eight members of the board of RosUkrEnergo, has denied knowing the unknown investors.

The vacuum of information has led to reports, so far unsubstantiated, that RosUkrEnergo's beneficiaries have links to Yushchenko's top advisers. Yushchenko himself was forced to deny any involvement by his brother, Petro, who has been involved in the gas-trading business.

Although much remains unclear, there is little doubt the deal has weakened Yushchenko politically, tarnishing his reputation as an uncorrupted reformer. Mychailo Wynnyckyj, a professor of sociology at the University of Kiev-Mohyla Academy, attributed the electoral failure of Yushchenko - and Tymoshenko's success - to the gas deal.

"Yushchenko came to power on the whole idea of transparency," he said. "And he was pushing a deal that obviously had some corrupt aspect to it."

Source: International Herald Tribune

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Tymoshenko Vows Softer Approach To Business

KIEV, Ukraine -- Yulia Tymoshenko, former Ukrainian prime minister, promised a business-friendly agenda yesterday if she succeeded in forming a ruling coalition, following her bloc's strong second-place showing in Sunday's parliamentary elections.

Yulia Tymoshenko

Ms Tymoshenko said she would radically lower corporate tax rates to encourage investment.

"A few points won't make a difference. Only a radical lowering of tax rates will bring business out of the shadows," she said.

She also sought to dispel anxiety among investors that she might againchallenge the legality of privatisations by the pro-Moscow administration before the 2004 Orange revolution brought President Viktor Yushchenko to power.

Investors were dismayed last year when Ms Tymoshenko, who served as Mr Yushchenko's prime minister until she was sacked in September, pursued populist economic policies including attempts to reallocate privatised assets and attacks on business oligarchs.

Ms Tymoshenko's latest promises will not in themselves assuage businesspeople's concerns. Thereis considerable worry in Kiev about how she can reconcile her business-friendly remarks with campaign promises to boost social spending and attacks on big business.

Ms Tymoshenko said the government should not try to reverse privatisations. "My name was absolutely artificially connected with reprivatisation in order to discredit me," she said.

"The main task to bring foreign investment is to make all business equal before the law and no business more equal [than others]."

Ms Tymoshenko was speaking as the last votes were counted in an election in which her bloc emerged as the largest of the three pro-west "Orange" parties, ahead of Mr Yushchenko's Our Ukraine and the much smaller Socialist grouping.

Together, the three parties will take about 54 per cent of parliament's seats, ahead of Viktor Yanukovich, the former pro-Russia prime minister, whose Regions party will have about 41 per cent.

Mr Yushchenko, who has hinted he could try to block Ms Tymoshenko's return, has little room to manoeuvre and is playing for time. His statement that he wanted simultaneous talks with Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yanukovich drew fire yesterday from the Socialists and from Our Ukraine leaders.

Alexander Valchyshen, head of research at ING Bank's branch in Ukraine, said Kiev's financial community was heatedly debating the pros and cons ofMs Tymoshenko's likely return.

He said the pros included her success in fighting tax evasion and closing loopholes, while the cons included the uncertainty that was created by the challenges to past privatisations, sudden changes to tax rules she pushed through at the beginning of her term and the overall higher taxpressure.

"The widespread view of economists is that her pol-icies decreased business confidence and slowed investment," Mr Valchyshen said.

Source: Financial Times

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Communist Electorate Fading Into The Sunset

KIEV, Ukraine -- The Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU), which has long been one of the largest factions in parliament, received a record-low number of votes in the March 26 parliamentary elections.


The future of the party looks bleak, as analysts suggest that the electorate traditionally loyal to the Communists has been persuaded by the populist promises of the election’s bigger players and has simply been dying out.

During Ukraine’s three parliamentary elections since independence in 1991, the CPU regularly took about 20 percent of the vote, predominantly supported by elderly people in eastern and southern Ukraine who were nostalgic for Soviet times. For example, after the parliamentary elections in 1998, the Communists gained the largest share of parliamentary seats, winning nearly 25 percent of the vote.

However, the results of Ukraine’s most recent parliamentary elections on March 26 demonstrated a sharp decline in the number of loyal CPU voters. According to the Central Election Commission, the body in charge of tallying and announcing the country’s official parliamentary and presidential election results, the CPU received only 3.6 percent of the votes in the March 26 election, lagging far behind the leaders – the Viktor Yanukovych-led Regions bloc, and the eponymous Yulia Tymoshenko bloc – which won just over 31 and 22 percent of votes, respectively, based on the latest election returns as the Post went to press.

Political analyst Mykhailo Pohrebinsky believes that the CPU lost a lot of its votes to Regions, which attracted leftists with its unequivocal pro-Russian declarations and socially-oriented campaign promises.

“I am surprised that the CPU got more than 3 percent [of the votes] at all,” said Pohrebinsky.

In December 2004, Ukraine’s Parliament approved a 3 percent barrier that parties and blocs must pass in order to enter the legislature, lowering the earlier election barrier of 4 percent. For comparison, the European parliamentary election barrier standard is 5 percent. As if the future didn’t already look bad for the CPU, leaders of Ukraine’s larger blocs have pledged to increase the barrier to at least 5 percent for future parliamentary elections.

“Why do they need the Communists, when there is such a nice guy from the working class who already raised pensions once and has promised to raise them more,” Pohrebinsky asked rhetorically, referring ironically to Viktor Yanukovych, Region’s leader and Ukraine’s former prime minister during the last years of the Leonid Kuchma presidency.

Yanukovych’s initiative to increase pensions at the end of 2004 was widely seen as a populist move to garner support ahead of the presidential elections that seems to have paid off in the long-term, given Regions’ first place finish in the recent parliamentary elections, with nearly one-third of the popular vote.

Yanukovych lost the presidential elections in 2004 against then-arch rival and current president, Viktor Yushchenko, in what turned out to be a fraud-filled carnival of ballot-stuffing by pro-Yanukovych forces that set off the Orange Revolution and changed the country’s political landscape to what it is today.

In any case, political analyst Andriy Yermolaev, said Regions is not solely to blame for the CPU’s failure in this year’s parliamentary elections. Other factors have contributed to the party’s gradual decline in popularity in Ukraine over the last couple of years, he said.

“A palpable dispersal of the leftist-oriented electorate took place before and after the Orange Revolution, when both democratic and pseudo-democratic political forces began flirting with leftist ideas,” said Yermolaev, referring in part to former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s populist moves in the social sector.

The Komsomol calling

No less important, Yermolaev added, is that the Communists’ traditional electorate which has remained loyal since Soviet days is aging, and CPU party leaders have offered little to attract the youth vote.

“The [CPU] needs renewal and modernization as of right now, to put it mildly. The party’s apparatus does not respond to contemporary demands at all,” Yermolaev added.

If the party does manage to restructure itself and reshape its program to better suit current societal conditions, then, Yermolaev said, the CPU would be able to compete for the support of at least 10 to 15 percent of the Ukrainian population, which holds strong leftist views.

Mykhailo Shulha, former Communist deputy in the parliament and deputy head of the Institute of Sociology in Ukraine’s Academy of Sciences, admits that drastic changes in the CPU are needed for it to win back its electorate.

“We have not taken into account how society has changed over the years, and it’s true that most of our electorate lives with a nostalgia for the Soviet past instead of looking to the future,” said Shulha.

Shulha said CPU leaders recognized the need to attract “young blood” to the party and developed a pre-election campaign strategy that targeted young people.

The main slogan of the election campaign – “Vote for the Communists – It’s Cool!” – was viewed by experts as one of the most creative in this election.

It did not, however, help the party win back its previous 20 percent of the electorate.

Pohrebinsky said the declining popularity of the Communists is also due to the marginal impact that the party has had in parliament in the last decade. As a result, the party has tended toward cooperation with more influential pro-governmental forces in the Rada.

Nevertheless, Shulha remains optimistic about the CPU’s future. According to a survey conducted by his Institute of Sociology, 25 percent of the Ukrainian population still supports socialist views, and only about 11 percent have capitalist leanings. Moreover, 10,000 new members joined the CPU last year, Shulha said, and the majority of them are people under 40 years old.

“If you take a look at the current Ukrainian political scene, you’ll see that the leaders represent right-wing parties that came to power because of their leftist declarations,” he said.

“Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have parties that are “political” in the classic sense [of the word], and all political forces in Ukraine are just groups defending their own big business interests.”

Yermolaev agrees, adding that in the fight between Ukrainian parties, ideology is of little importance.

“Our elections are not classic – [in the sense of] liberals battling socialists, or something to that effect. It’s a battle of phantoms, such as NATO and the EU working against [Ukraine developing] closer ties with Russia, as well as a battle of personalities, more than anything else,” said Yermolaev.

Pavlo Shcherbakov, deputy head of the CPU, said that he wouldn’t “over-dramatize the [CPU’s] election results.”

“Every sane citizen of Ukraine understands that the country is not choosing between capitalism and social justice today,” Shcherbakov said.

“In 2004, Ukrainians were choosing between the political philosophies of the West and East,” he added.

“In 2006, they chose between the establishment of pro-Western, American-style democracy and the resurgence of opposition to the national interest. But when these stages are passed, the Communists will have their say.”

Source: Kyiv Post

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Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Election Defeat A Cold Shower For Yushchenko

KIEV, Ukraine -- The Our Ukraine (NU) bloc of President Viktor Yushchenko lost the March 26 parliamentary elections not only to the opposition Party of Regions (PRU) of Viktor Yanukovych, whom Yushchenko defeated in the presidential poll in 2004, but also, quite unexpectedly, to its former Orange coalition partner, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYT).

Yulia Tymoshenko communicates with journalists after the meeting with President of Ukraine Viktor Yuschenko

Because of this surprising development, the new parliament may not be viable, as it will be hard to form a ruling coalition. The election, however, was a victory for Yushchenko the democrat and guarantor of the constitution. This was the first Ukrainian election whose results are not disputed by any of the major participants. Western and Russian observers have agreed that the vote was free and fair.

Irregularities did take place, but mostly due to imperfect legislation. There were long queues at polling stations because the parliamentary and local elections were held simultaneously, and people had to tick their choices on four or five extremely long ballot papers.

There were also mistakes in voter rolls, including some due to the translation of Russian names into Ukrainian in the Russian-speaking east and south -- which, the PRU claims, prevented a certain number of their supporters from voting.

According to the national exit poll, conducted jointly by the Razumkov Center, the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the PRU won the election with 31% of the popular ballot. The Tymoshenko Bloc came second with 24%, defying public opinion polls conducted before the election. Our Ukraine, which had been widely expected to surpass the BYT, came third instead, with just 15.5%.

The Central Electoral Commission was still counting the votes as of noon March 29, but the figures after 95% of the ballots have been counted almost coincided with the exit poll's predictions.

Only two more parties -- of the 45 parties that participated in the election -- overcame the 3% election barrier. These are the Socialists with 5.4% and the Communists with 3.3%, according to the exit poll. For the Communists, who were beaten by the PRU in their strongholds, Donetsk Region and Crimea, this is the worst result in history.

The United Social Democrats of former President Leonid Kuchma's administration chief Viktor Medvedchuk -- probably the most influential party of the Kuchma era -- risks sinking into political oblivion with less than 1%.

The NU's dismal performance compared to the BYT has interfered with plans to re-establish the Orange Revolution coalition of the NU, the BYT, and the Socialists. The NU and the BYT initially planned to sign a coalition accord on the evening of March 26. The event has now been postponed several times, as the NU is apparently not ready to accept its crushing defeat at the hands of the BYT.

Before the election, NU campaign manager Roman Bezsmertny said that whichever Orange Coalition party scores more votes than its partners should nominate the candidate for prime minister. The tug of war over the post of prime minister has been arguably the main problem in relations between Our Ukraine and the Tymoshenko Bloc.

Tymoshenko herself has staked a claim to take back this post, but the NU believes that Tymoshenko lost the right to claim this position after Yushchenko fired her in September 2005 for poor performance and because of corruption scandals.

If an Orange Coalition reforms and Bezsmertny sticks to his word, the coveted post arguably should go back to Tymoshenko. This is not just humiliating, but also unacceptable for many in Our Ukraine. "President Yushchenko is categorically against having reprivatization continued or speculated on," Yushchenko aide Ivan Vasyunyk told a briefing on March 27.

Tymoshenko's opponents accuse her of scaring investors by unleashing a massive reprivatization campaign when she was prime minister, but Tymoshenko says she only wanted to return to the nation what was "stolen" by the "oligarchs" under Kuchma.

Asked by Inter TV what would happen if Yushchenko refused to accept her conditions, Tymoshenko replied, "Then he will have to accept Yanukovych as prime minister." Yanukovych's PRU would welcome such a turn. Regions of Ukraine argues that an "orange-blue" coalition would unite orange Western Ukraine and blue (the PRU's color) Eastern Ukraine. But the NU would be a junior partner in such a coalition, as it scored less than half the vote of the PRU.

Such an alliance would be hard for most Our Ukraine sympathizers to digest, as the PRU's foreign policy priorities, which PRU campaign manager Yevhen Kushnaryov listed in an interview with UT1, include giving up NATO accession plans and seeking a rapprochement with Moscow.

If no coalition is formed, Yushchenko will be entitled to dismiss the legislature as, under the constitutional amendments in effect from January 1, only a stable majority can come up with a candidate for prime minister. If no majority is in place -- and none of the three main parties will be able to form it without partners -- Yushchenko may have no choice but to call new elections this summer.

Source: Eurasia Daily Monitor

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Rice Says Governing Party In Ukraine Victimized By Unmet Expectations

WASHINGTON, DC -- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Tuesday the governing party in Ukraine did poorly in parliamentary elections because it was unable to meet public expectations engendered by the Orange Revolution.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice

Testifying before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Rice said the Bush administration will seek friendly relations with whatever coalition government is formed in Ukraine.

She expressed hope that the new government will respect what the Ukrainian people want, including close ties to the West.

Rice noted that the combined vote of the two leading Orange Revolution parties exceeded that of the pro-Moscow party, which had the most support of any single grouping.

"The expectations for what they could deliver were out of line with what they were able to deliver," Rice said, alluding to President Viktor Yushchenko's party, which won only about 15 percent of the votes counted as of Tuesday.

Source: AP

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The Trick To Understanding Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine has held its first elections after the Orange Revolution. Without any qualification, they were free and fair with a high participation of 67 percent, showing that Ukraine has matured as a democracy.

Yulia Tymoshenko, the "orange revolution" heroine who came in second place in Ukraine's key parliamentary election, listens to journalists' questions in Kiev.

At the same time, Ukraine has become a parliamentary system, which will reinforce democracy in the country. The Communists have been further marginalized, and party consolidation has proceeded well, with only five parties likely to make it into parliament.

The main results of the vote reflect an amazing constancy. In December 2004, Viktor Yushchenko defeated Viktor Yanukovych with a margin of 8 percentage points, which will probably be the balance between the orange and blue, or more accurately western and eastern, coalitions. The geographic dividing line runs exactly where it did in 2004, or where it has gone for most of the last 300 years.

International media have focused on Yanukovych's Party of the Regions becoming the largest single party, but what matters in proportional elections is which parties can form a ruling majority, and that is the Orange coalition.

The surprise is what happened within the Orange coalition, with Yulia Tymoshenko's bloc trouncing Yushchenko's Our Ukraine. It is easy to understand why that happened. Our Ukraine ran an inept campaign and put its least popular representatives, such as discredited businessman Petro Poroshenko, in the spotlight, while the president and his prime minister, Yury Yekhanurov, kept a low profile.

Tymoshenko is an outstanding campaigner, and she seems to have chosen the right political themes as well. Her main slogan was "justice," reflecting Yushchenko's unfulfilled promise from 2004: "Bandits to prison!" Once again, revenge against the old regime became the dominant line.

Her victory over Our Ukraine elevates moral issues over economic policy, and her rhetoric looks backward to the Orange Revolution, further cementing the east-west divide.

She also defeated Pora-PRP, the new liberal bloc, which tried to offer a decent alternative to Orange voters appalled by both populism and corruption.

Since the campaign became a rehashing of the Orange Revolution, nothing but an Orange coalition appears natural, that is, Tymoshenko's bloc, Our Ukraine and the Socialist Party. The Lytvyn Popular bloc will not enter parliament. Today, nobody but Tymoshenko appears the natural prime minister. The job is hers to lose.

All three potential coalition partners have already started to hold talks on the formation of a new government, and one influential Our Ukraine deputy predicted that an Orange coalition government would be formed within two to three weeks. The uncertainty about the nature of the next government has diminished.

The big question is what policy a Prime Minister Tymoshenko would pursue. As deputy prime minister for energy in 2000, she surprised us positively by going after other oligarchs and cleaning up the energy sector.

As prime minister last year, by contrast, she surprised us negatively by focusing on re-privatization, which had not been part of her government program. Now she has received a greater popular mandate than ever before, so we can only wonder how she will amaze us this time.

The natural starting point is her bloc's pre-election program. Even by the standards of such documents, it is stunningly diffuse. The most substantial part is the section on "just power." It declares that under a Tymoshenko-led government, judicial immunity for politicians would be immediately abolished, regional governors would be elected and local self-government would be strengthened.

Tymoshenko calls her economic credo "solidarism," referring to a century-old socialist creed, but its meaning remains fuzzy. Her section on economic policy is small and empty.

In a populist vein, it states that enterprises as well as people "will pay taxes without any coercion." Just in case, the value-added tax is to be abolished as well. Fortunately, the social section is suitably vague. The time of expensive social benefit promises appears over.

Most important, re-privatization is not mentioned, though nor are property rights guaranteed. After she was ousted as prime minister in September, Tymoshenko declared that she had never advocated re-privatization, which is not necessarily true but definitely helpful.

She is not likely to put herself in the same bind once again. Moreover, Our Ukraine cannot possibly join a coalition with her without her giving credible guarantees not to launch another re-privatization campaign.

One of Tymoshenko's most successful campaign themes was her persistent attacks on the Russian-Ukrainian gas deal of Jan. 4, which will undoubtedly be undone. RosUkrEnergo has never been accepted by the Ukrainian public, and the existence of six attachments to the January agreement, purportedly giving away Ukraine's pipelines and gas reservoirs to RosUkrEnergo, appears unacceptable to just about any Ukrainian.

Early Russian comments have emphasized the relative victory of the Party of the Regions, but the Kremlin leaders will probably be all the more upset when they realize that a new Orange coalition under Tymoshenko is budding.

The Kremlin reaction is likely to be all the greater if Tymoshenko sticks to her election promise to break the gas agreement with Russia and render RosUkrEnergo transparent. Though you never know with Yulia. On Ekho Moskvy last September, she congratulated the Russians upon their "wonderful" president.

Regardless of the exact train of events, Ukraine is a democracy, while Russia is not. Therefore, the Kremlin finds it difficult to understand Ukraine. Whatever the Ukrainian leaders do to satisfy one constituency or another is incomprehensible to authoritarians, and if some Ukrainian action does not suit the Kremlin, it will be perceived as dictated by Washington and criticized accordingly.

Such Russian rhetoric can do nothing but drive Ukraine into the arms of the West, and as the European Union is not open, Ukraine will have to run all the faster toward NATO, not because of Western overtures, but because of Russian intimidation.

Source: The Moscow Times

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Tuesday, March 28, 2006

Klitschko Concedes Defeat In Kiev Mayoral Race

KIEV, Ukraine -- Former heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko conceded defeat in his bid to become the Ukrainian capital's next mayor after early results Monday showed him trailing the front runner.

Vitali Klitschko

"I tried to be the leader ... that was my aim," Klitschko said in remarks broadcast on Ukraine's TV5. "But it is important to know how to win and how to lose."

The 34-year-old retired boxer, who was making his first ever bid for public office, turned up at a news conference to publicly offer his congratulations to Leonid Chernovetskiy.

Early results showed Chernovetskiy, a lawmaker, winning with more than 30 percent of the vote, ahead of the two-term Mayor Oleksandr Omelchenko and Klitschko, who both hovered around 22 percent, Ukraine's Interfax news agency reported.

Klitschko, a supporter of President Viktor Yushchenko, also appeared to have lost a simultaneous bid to enter parliament as early results suggested his party had failed to make it over the 3 percent barrier.

He retired from boxing in November after hurting his knee in training and pulling out of a defense of his heavyweight title, reports AP.

Source: Pravda

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Ukraine President Slows Down Rush To Coalition

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's pro-Western liberals prepared on Monday for coalition talks to keep the Russia-backed winner of Sunday's parliamentary election in opposition, though President Viktor Yushchenko quashed talk of any quick deal.

Ukraine's former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko

Thwarting Yulia Tymoshenko, his one-time "Orange Revolution" ally who said a liberal coalition could in principle be decided on Monday, Yushchenko said such talks could be held only when the election vote-count was complete.

"It is logical to start talks on a coalition after the official declaration of the election results. This is the president's position," Ivan Vasyunyk, first deputy head of the president's secretariat, told reporters.

Full results from Sunday's parliamentary poll, in which partial returns show the Russia-backed Regions Party in the lead, are expected on Tuesday.

There was no direct word from Yushchenko, who was humiliated in the poll that appears to have left his Our Ukraine party in a poor third place behind Tymoshenko's bloc.

His aide said Yushchenko had asked Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov to put out feelers for forming a coalition.

But his move to slow the coalition-building process showed he did not want to be bulldozed into an agreement by Tymoshenko, now vying with him for standard-bearer of the "orange" liberals.

"There is a very simple explanation -- Our Ukraine wants to take a break and come to terms with what happened. And there is a good way out for them: there are no complete election results yet," said independent political analyst Oleksander Dergachev.

Tymoshenko has made it clear she sees herself as getting her old job of prime minister back in a three-way liberal coalition bringing together her bloc, Our Ukraine and the Socialists.

That prospect would hardly delight Yushchenko who sacked her from the job last September after infighting among liberals over corruption charges.

The two have been on poor terms since. Her interventionist views do not sit well with Yushchenko's own free market values.

The pro-Western liberals appeared to be preoccupied by maneuvering for position -- just over a year since Yushchenko came to power after the heady street protests which came to be known as the Orange Revolution.

Disillusionment over divisions and an economic slowdown helped Yanukovich's Regions Party to first place in the vote.

Yanukovich, strong in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, seized on his win to urge parties to team up with him. He, too, said formal negotiations should await the final vote count.

Incomplete results showed the liberals, who have set the country of 47 million on a course to join Europe's mainstream, could still control parliament and frustrate his comeback.

With 25.76 percent counted, the Regions Party had 26.53 percent. The Yulia Tymoshenko bloc was in second place with 23.30 percent and Our Ukraine had 16.92 percent.

The election got a clean bill of health from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. "These elections can only be described as free and fair," Alcee Hastings, special coordinator of an OSCE observer team, told a news conference.

Before Sunday's poll, political pundits had foreseen the prospect of Yushchenko having to form a coalition with Yanukovich, whom he humiliated in a re-run of a disputed presidential election in 2004.

But Yushchenko now seems destined to have to patch up differences instead with Tymoshenko, just as difficult for him given the bad blood between them.

Tymoshenko's strong showing was the result of relentless campaigning by the 45-year-old, whose tough talking on the stump proved a scourge for Yanukovich and Yushchenko alike.

If they do form a coalition, the Orange Revolution leaders will be under pressure to deliver on reforms after prising Ukraine from centuries of Russian domination.

Ukraine's export-led economic growth has slowed markedly over the last year due to lower world prices for steel and chemicals, its major exports, and a lack of investment.

Foreign investors have expressed concern over uncertainty in privatization policy, frequent rows in the government over major policy issues and failure to simplify an opaque legal system.

Source: Reuters

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Former Ukrainian Premier Says Will Meet President On Coalition

KIEV, Ukraine -- Former Ukrainian Premier Yulia Timoshenko said she will meet President Viktor Yushchenko today to discuss creation of a coalition government after parliamentary elections failed to give any party a majority.

Yulia Timoshenko at a press conference

Yushchenko, whose party lay in third place with 15.6 percent, according to official results, may have to turn to Timoshenko to form a government. With 63 percent of the vote counted, Timoshenko's bloc had 23 percent, trailing only the Regions Party of Viktor Yanukovych with 30 percent.

Five of 45 parties represented in the vote will probably enter the 450-seat parliament after March 26 elections, results show. Timoshenko, who was fired by Yushchenko six months ago after the two fell out over policy and allegations of corruption within Timoshenko's team, said she would welcome a coalition with the president's Our Ukraine party.

"I will make every attempt to create a coalition," Timoshenko, 45, said yesterday evening, according an interview broadcast on television station 5. A coalition between Our Ukraine, the Socialists and her alliance would have about 255 seats in the parliament, more than the minimum 226 needed for a majority, Timoshenko said.

There was no announcement about what time or where the two would meet and Yushchenko's office had no comment on her remarks.

Regions Party

Regions Party lawmaker Ihor Shkyria said in an interview with channel 5 his party is prepared to told talks "with everybody." He estimated Regions will have more than 200 seats and would accept a coalition with Yushchenko's party. Any cabinet that doesn't include Regions won't be stable, he said.

Yushchenko, who swept to power 15 months ago in the Orange revolution along with Timoshenko, lost the confidence of many voters who say he failed to match promises to root out corruption and boost living standards.

With parliament being given the power for the first time to name a premier and cabinet, Yushchenko must make a deal with one of the opposition parties if he wants to retain a strong voice in government, said Katya Malofeeva, analyst at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, in an interview yesterday.

"This is wrong to delay signing a coalition, even by an hour, because that increases chances for a grand coalition between Our Ukraine and the Regions Party," Timoshenko said. "I understand that Our Ukraine is in deep shock after the results were released. And still I would like to warn the powers not to play with such things."

Timoshenko wants to join the European Union and the World Trade Organization and reverse some former state-asset sales conducted by former President Leonid Kuchma. She has said today she wants to work with Yushchenko and not Yanukovych, who favors closer ties with neighboring Russia.

Given Timoshenko's problems with Yushchenko, 52, and her proposals to regulate some consumer prices, some economists said it would be better if the president looked past his former ally and reached out instead to the 55-year-old Yanukovich.

Yushchenko beat Yanukovich in a re-run of disputed presidential elections in December 2004 that sparked massive street protests.

Source: Bloomberg

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Monday, March 27, 2006

Yushchenko And Moroz To Form Coalition

KIEV, Ukraine -- President Viktor Yushchenko who lost the elections in Ukraine has established the principles for forming coalition in the new parliament with the Socialist Party of Alexander Moroz.

Socialist Party leader Alexander Moroz

Moroz told a press conference that the negotiating teams of the two parties have established the principles of memorandum about forming the coalition. He added that possibility of involving other participants in the coalition was not discussed.

He noted however that negotiations with Julia Tymoshenko's block have been planned.

The former Ukrainian prime minister Viktor Yanukovich, who took an early lead in Ukrainian parliamentary elections, is described by the Western media as a pro-Russian man.

According to exit polls, Tymoshenko could get a prime minister post in any combination.

Last night, Tymoshenko said that upon taking power, she would reject the contract that increased the price of Russian gas imports.

Source: MakFax

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Ukraine Poll Pushes 'Orange' Rivals Into Each Others' Arms

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's parliamentary elections have dealt a humiliating personal blow to President Viktor Yushchenko but are likely to push his splintered "Orange Revolution" team back together, analysts said Monday.

Can Yushchenko (L) and Tymoshenko put their egos aside and become a team, again?

Yushchenko was beaten in a national election both by the man he defeated in the "Orange Revolution" contest a little over a year ago, and by the woman he fired as premier six months ago, according to the exit polls.

The president's Our Ukraine bloc received just 16 percent of the vote, compared to 31 percent for Viktor Yanukovich's Regions Party and 24 percent for Yulia Timoshenko's bloc, the pollsters estimated.

The first official results were expected at about 0600 GMT Monday, but the national election commission had only tallied results from just over 8 percent of Ukraine's 34,041 polling stations by then.

"We will work all day Monday and maybe even a bit on Tuesday," Yaroslav Davydovych, the head of Ukraine's central election commission, told reporters.

The Regions Party, headed by Russia-friendly ex-premier Viktor Yanukovich, led with 24.58 percent, "orange revolution" heroine Yulia Tymoshenko's bloc had 24.08 percent, and President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc was in third with 17.01 percent, the preliminary results showed.

Exit polls released after the close of voting Sunday suggested Regions would get 31 percent of the overall vote, Timoshenko's bloc 24 percent, and Our Ukraine would be third with 16 percent.

The polls showed that two other parties were likely to get more than the 3 percent of the general vote required to get into parliament -- the Socialists with 5 percent and the Communists with 3 percent.

Mandate for opponents

"The results are the Ukrainian population's evaluation of... (Yushchenko's) first year in office. They have given their mandate to his opponents," said Kost Bondarenko, a political analyst in Kiev.

Yushchenko was swept into power after the 2004 "orange revolution" street protests over a contested presidential ballot, amid which the nation's supreme court threw out the results that initially handed victory to Yanukovich.

The then-opposition leader easily won a rerun ballot but his popularity has plummeted as the economy slumped and the "orange" team splintered amid infighting.

The president's apparent poor showing in Sunday's poll will push him towards a coalition with Tymoshenko, analysts agreed early Monday, while officials from the two parties suggested an agreement could be signed later in the day.

"The most probable coalition will be orange... the Region Party's victory is only a formal one," said Volodymyr Fesenko, an independent analyst.

"This is a blow for Yushchenko, but not defeat," said Bondarenko.

Timoshenko or Yanukovich as premier?

Tymoshenko, too, downplayed the Regions victory, saying an "orange" coalition would relegate Yanukovich's party to an opposition role in the new parliament.

"This is absolutely okay. The country needs a strong opposition," Timoshenko said in early morning televised remarks.

Tymoshenko looks set to regain the premiership in a coalition with Our Ukraine.

"Our Ukraine has agreed on the position that the force that gets the most votes... will propose its candidacy for the prime minister's post," said Roman Bezsmertnyi, campaign chief for Our Ukraine.

When asked what would happen if Yushchenko refused her candidacy for the premiership, Tymoshenko said in televised comments: "He would have to agree to the premiership of (Viktor) Yanukovich."

Such a coalition would allow Yushchenko to continue reforms aimed at driving Ukraine toward membership in the European Union and the NATO, analysts said.

But an alliance between the president and his erstwhile "orange" partner is likely to be a tense one, as the ambitious Tymoshenko and measured Yushchenko are likely to spar on several issues, analysts say.

These include a recent gas deal with Russia, which Tymoshenko has demanded be scrapped; reviewing questionable privatizations, which she has vowed to pursue despite investor unease; and intervention in the economy, which free market-oriented Yushchenko opposes.

Source: Deutsche Welle

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Yushchenko Scorned As Ukraine Turns Its Back On The Orange Revolution

KIEV, Ukraine -- Fifteen months ago, Natasha Diman, then 24, looked every inch the orange revolutionary, camping out in sub-zero temperatures on Kiev's main square in a display of people power that redrew the geopolitical map of Europe.

A young woman, named Alyona, prepares to cast her ballot in a polling center in Kiev.

But as Ukraine went to the polls yesterday, Natasha, like many of her compatriots, said she was deeply disillusioned with the orange revolution to the point where she felt unable to vote for Viktor Yushchenko, the man she helped become the president.

It is such apathy and disenchantment that yesterday saw Mr Yushchenko's party humiliatingly beaten into third place according to two nationwide exit polls which suggested he had won little more than 15 percent of the vote.

If confirmed, the results would be a crushing blow to the pro-Western leader.

By contrast, the polls showed that "the man who lost the orange revolution" ­ the pro-Russian politician Viktor Yanukovych ­ was on course to capture some 30 per cent of the vote in a startling comeback that will delight Moscow and disturb Washington.

But perhaps the biggest surprise was the strong performance of Yulia Tymoshenko, known as "the Ukrainian Joan of Arc" during the revolution. Now estranged from her one-time ally Mr Yushchenko, her political bloc appeared to have won more than a fifth of the vote, putting her in a strong position to demand a place in a new government.

Mr Yushchenko will keep his job as president since the elections are parliamentary, not presidential, but the results will again redraw the political map of Ukraine, possibly tipping it towards the country it so dramatically turned its back on in 2004: Russia.

If a week is a long time in politics, in Ukraine's case 15 months has turned out to be an age.

Before the victory of the revolution was assured, a shivering Natasha Diman told The Independent that she felt highly politicised and hopeful.

An unemployed law graduate, she threw her lot in with Mr Yushchenko to shake off what she described as miserable living standards and an authoritarian, Soviet-style regime that danced to Russia's tune.

Fifteen months later, she doesn't regret her actions but wonders what it was all for. "We still hope for the best but nothing has really changed," she says.

"Yushchenko is a decent man, but too soft. He says good things but then does nothing when people around him do the opposite. He has forgotten that unlike the people politicians come and go."

Mr Yushchenko's image was damaged by a scandal around his son Andrei who was revealed to be leading a lavish lifestyle on income he allegedly derived from cashing in on the merchandising boom which followed the orange revolution.

It was hard for ordinary Ukrainians to accept since, crucially, revolutionary fervour has not brought improved living standards for most.

People scrape by on an average monthly wage of $150 (£86), prices fluctuate wildly, and unemployment is rife, while gas prices have risen sharply after a dispute with Russia that saw the country's supplies temporarily cut off in a pricing row.

Natasha is a case in point ­ she may have been one of its most loyal foot soldiers but she feels the revolution has not rewarded her idealism.

She is doing unpaid work experience in a bank in Kiev, the capital, has no income apart from savings and contributions from relatives, and says she has little prospect of anything better despite being well qualified.

Indeed many Ukrainians who have become disenchanted with the orange revolution are now looking for pragmatic as opposed to idealistic solutions to their problems.

That yesterday's elections do not carry the same weight as the orange revolution is indisputable, but they are highly significant.

Their outcome will dictate the make-up of a new, more powerful, parliament as well as the composition of a new government that will emerge from possibly weeks of horse-trading and backroom deals.

And while Mr Yushchenko will have the right to appoint the foreign and defence ministers, all the other jobs, including the influential portfolio of prime minister, will be decided by the new parliament.

The ballot will inevitably produce a coalition government since no one party won enough votes to govern alone.

And whatever happens, Mr Yushchenko, whose personal popularity rating has crashed from 70 to around 20 per cent, will ultimately be forced to compromise and join forces with unpalatable allies.

For Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Moscow candidate defeated so convincingly in 2004, it is a startling comeback.

With the help of slick American spin-doctors, Mr Yanukovych has come back from the political grave, reinvented himself as a man who can do business with Brussels and Moscow, and has deftly capitalised on the orange government's every stumble.

His Party of the Regions looks like it will have almost half the seats in the 450-member parliament. Conversely, Mr Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party looks like a spent force.

Ironically, Our Ukraine was up against the political bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, the fiery photogenic Ukrainian nationalist who stood shoulder to shoulder with Mr Yushchenko during the orange revolution and was one of his closest allies.

The two fell out spectacularly last September when Mr Yushchenko sacked her as prime minister arguing that his government had become paralysed by infighting, personal rivalry and Machiavellian plotting.

Ms Tymoshenko is banking on a spectacular comeback and is likely to push hard for Mr Yushchenko to reinstate her as prime minister.

Mr Yushchenko has promised to start negotiations to form a government as early as today with the forces traditionally associated with the orange revolution including Ms Tymoshenko's party.

But whether he can clinch a deal remains uncertain since relations between Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko are said to be glacial.

If that option fails, he may look to form "a grand coalition" with his one-time nemesis Mr Yanukovych. Such a coalition would unite the Ukrainian-speaking West of the country as represented by Mr Yushchenko with the Russian-speaking east as represented by Mr Yanukovych.

Source: The Independent

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Sunday, March 26, 2006

Russia-Backed Opposition Leads In Ukraine - Exit Polls

KIEV, Ukraine -- The party of Russia-backed Viktor Yanukovich, loser in a presidential poll in Ukraine's 2004 "Orange Revolution", held a clear lead in Sunday's parliamentary election, exits polls showed.

A Ukrainian woman reads her ballot at a polling booth in Kiev, Ukraine, Sunday, March 26, 2006

But an even bigger blow for the pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko came from the bloc of his estranged "Orange Revolution" ally Yulia Tymoshenko, who flew past him into second place leaving his Our Ukraine party badly trailing.

The projected outcome, that could mark a step away from the pro-West ideals espoused by the Orange Revolution which turfed out Yanukovich and a pro-Moscow establishment, was also a personal humiliation for Yushchenko at Tymoshenko's hands.

An exit poll conducted by three Ukrainian institutions gave Yanukovich's Regions party 33.3 per cent of the vote, the Tymoshenko bloc 22.7 and the pro-presidential party 13.5.

A second exit poll gave roughly the same picture, putting the Regions Party at 27.5 percent, the Tymoshenko bloc at 21.6 and Our Ukraine on 15.5 percent.

Once close 'orange' comrades in the heady street protests of 2004 that turfed out the pro-Moscow establishment, Yushchenko and his charismatic former premier have been on poor terms since he sacked her as prime minister last September.

Now long weeks of talks will probably be needed to piece together a coalition able to command a majority in parliament which, under new constitutional rules, is empowered to choose the prime minister.

Yushchenko, voting in central Kiev, said earlier that talks would start immediately after the election.

"Tomorrow we start consultations with political forces which made up the coalition which was victorious in the Orange Revolution," he said as he cast his ballot in central Kiev.

But disillusionment over splits in the "orange" team and a economic slowdown had clearly contributed to the big score for Yanukovich, who commands strong support among Russian speakers in industrial eastern Ukraine.

Tymoshenko, 45, a voluble and persuasive performer, has been for months blaming the president and his entourage for splits in the 'orange' ranks and had clearly been heeded by large swathes of the liberal vote.

A DEAL WITH THE OPPOSITION

Though his own job is not at risk, the apparent outcome means Yushchenko will probably have to reach awkward accommodations with either his old rival from the bruising 2004 campaign or Tymoshenko.

At stake is the fate of a country of 47 million, whose "Orange" leaders have been unable to deliver on promises after prising Ukraine loose from centuries of Russian domination and setting it on a course for joining the European mainstream.

Though Ukrainians now enjoy total freedom of expression, monthly wages stand at only $150 (86 pounds). Prices fluctuate erratically.

A maddening bureaucracy remains as does systematic corruption. Western investors are wary of uncertain stability.

Yushchenko is also weakened by constitutional reform that has trimmed his powers and extended those of parliament.

Ties with Russia remain unsteady. A New Year deal pushed gas prices sharply higher, ending a confrontation which briefly cut supplies to Ukraine -- and Moscow's European customers.

Infighting in the Orange camp prompted Yushchenko to sack Tymoshenko as prime minister.

Both a coalition with Yanukovich or one with Tymoshenko would carry dangers for Yushchenko.

A "grand coalition" with Yanukovich's party could mean sacrificing pro-Western advocates like Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk. His power base might also be eroded.

But patching up with Tymoshenko also comes at a high price. She would like her job of premier back, a difficult step given her interventionist views and Yushchenko's free market values.

Source: Reuters

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Orange Revolution Goes Through First Tough Election

KIEV, Ukraine -- A judicious test awaits the Orange Revolution as the government in Ukraine will be going through a parliamentary election for the first time today since 2004.

Yushchenko (L), Tymoshenko (C) and Yanukovych (R)

Ukraine is prepared to consider the odds of forming a stand-alone government after the first parliamentary elections. Viktor Yushchenko, the revolutionary President of Ukraine, will face a challenge, whatever the election results happen to be, reporters said.

Ukraine is aiming to gain membership to the European Union as well as to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the medium run. There will be approximately 10,000 foreign monitors for today’s crucial test of democracy.

Pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych could win 25-30 percent of the votes, becoming the winner of the elections. Yushchenko, the mastermind of the Orange Revolution, and Yulya Tymoshenko, the first lady of Revolution, are to have equal proportions of 20 percent of votes to come out second or third in the polls, according to the recent public surveys.

None of the three parties are decorated with enough credentials to rule alone, a sign the a coalition government will be formed.

The limit was set to three percent for Yuschenko’s Our Ukraine Bloc, Tymoshenko’s Byut Bloc, and Yanukovych’s Regions Party, aside from two or three other small-scale parties, to win a place in the 450-seat parliament.

Business circles support “Yushchenko-Yanukovych” coalition

A possible Yushchenko-Yanukovych coalition, will pave the way for presidency for the female politician Tymoshenko in the next elections. President of Kiev Political Evaluations Center, Oles Doniy told big business circles are in favor of a Yushchenko-Yanukovych coalition as they do not want to damage the stability.

On the other side, sociologist Viktor Nebojenko say that the government may go out of Yuschenko’s control, which will be shaken by economic and political turbulences after the elections.

On the contrary to the presidential elections, which resulted in the orange revolution, the public is lacking “enthusiasm and hope”. Yet, the revolution supporters who were disappointed by the orange revolution, seem not to have changed their sides against pro-Russian Yanukovych.

In his last statement before the presidential elections,” This will be an election between the past and future. You must go to the ballots and cast your vote in favor of democratic forces,” told Yushchenko to the public. On the other side, Yanukovych defended that the Yushchenko government deceived the public and caused the country to experience big troubles.

Source: Zaman Daily

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Pro-Russian Opposition Set For Gains In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainians cast ballots Sunday in a parliamentary election that could tip this divided ex-Soviet republic back toward Russia just 16 months after the Orange Revolution helped put it on a westward course.

President Viktor Yushchenko (L), and his wife Kateryna, hold their ballots at a polling station in downtown Kiev, Ukraine, Sunday, March 26, 2006. His daughter Sofia seen in the center.

An opposition party advocating improved ties with Moscow and a halt to Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO is expected to win the most seats in the 450-member parliament. President Viktor Yushchenko’s job is not at stake, but the vote is the first since constitutional reforms trimmed presidential powers and gave broader authority to parliament, including the right to name the prime minister and much of the Cabinet.

The vote could potentially allow Viktor Yanukovych, who lost the contested 2004 presidential elections, to slow the pro-Western course set by Yushchenko and seek improved ties with Moscow.

Amid disillusionment over the sharp slowdown in economic growth, Yushchenko’s party is in the doldrums and Yanukovych’s fortunes have dramatically recovered since he was accused of rigging the presidential vote.

Comeback for Yanukovych

Yanukovych, who enjoys broad support in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking industrialized east and ties to its powerful tycoons, is likely to secure some 30 percent of the vote for his Party of the Regions, according to most opinion polls.

The country’s mainly Ukrainian-speaking western and central provinces are split between Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party and the party of flamboyant Yulia Tymoshenko, the blond-braided heroine of the Orange Revolution’s mass protests over election fraud.

The two had a bitter falling out in September when the president abruptly fired Tymoshenko, accusing her of ruining the economy and betraying the Orange Revolution ideals. Tymoshenko struck back, saying Yushchenko was being manipulated by a clique of self-interested advisers.

But there are signs they may be considering a reconciliation. Yushchenko said Sunday his party will start talks with former Orange Revolution allies on forming a coalition after the election.

“The most important thing is the maximum engagement of democratic forces in forming a coalition,” he said after casting his ballot at a Kiev polling station.

Tymoshenko portrays herself as a victim of ruthless and corrupt clans, which along with her public speaking prowess helped her retain strong public support in the nation of 47 million people, while Yushchenko’s ratings plummeted from 70 percent a year ago to under 20 percentage points in recent opinion polls.

“Yulia is our last hope,” Iryna Petrova, a 64-year old retiree said after voting for Tymoshenko’s bloc at a polling station in downtown Kiev.

Moscow's hand behind the scenes

Russia, still reeling from a humiliating defeat it suffered in the 2004 presidential election when a court annulled Yanukovych’s fraud-tainted victory and ordered a repeat vote, avoided direct meddling in the campaign, but worked actively behind the scenes.

In what was widely interpreted as an attempt to turn the heat on Yushchenko, Russia at the start of the year forced Ukraine to pay double for its gas imports after an acrimonious price dispute that led to a brief shutdown in Russian gas shipments to Ukraine — also affecting transit supplies to Western Europe.

Yushchenko’s foes, including Yanukovych, Tymoshenko and others, denounced the deal as the betrayal of Ukraine’s national interests and voted to fire his Cabinet. While Yushchenko ignored the vote, it underlined the growing challenges he was facing.

Yanukovych promised to mend ties with Moscow, make Russian a second state language and drop plans for Ukraine to join NATO. He supports European Union membership, but said the first priority should be joining a Russian-led economic bloc of former Soviet nations.

His party isn’t expected to win a majority that would make it capable of forming the Cabinet alone, but it is expected to become a key force in any future coalition.

Yushchenko has kept the door open for forming a coalition with Yanukovych, whom he called a criminal just over a year ago — an about-face that analysts say could further erode public support.

Ihor Prikordonny, a 68-year-old pensioner, said he voted for Yushchenko’s party but was against the president striking an alliance with Yanukovych. “Yanukovych has discredited himself and lacks education and culture,” Prikordonny said.

Source: AP

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Russia-Backed Opposition Set For Comeback In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine began voting on Sunday in a crucial election that seems certain to see a resurgence of Russia-backed forces and mark a step back from the pro-West ideals that piloted the "Orange Revolution" liberals to power.

Local election commission official prepares a polling station for Sunday's election voting

President Viktor Yushchenko went into the election for a new parliament, well aware that widespread disillusionment over his government's record has left his old Moscow-backed rival, Viktor Yanukovich, poised to bounce back onto the political scene.

Though his own job is not in the balance, Yushchenko knows that, after Sunday's vote, he will have to reach an understanding with the man he humiliated in a presidential poll re-run in December 2004.

The new parliament for whom 37 million electors were voting will, for the first time, have powers to appoint the prime minister, steward of Ukraine's rocky economy.

Pre-poll surveys say Yanukovich's Regions Party is sure to grab the biggest share of the vote. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party lies second with the bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, his one-time ally, in third place.

At stake is the fate of a country of 47 million, whose 'Orange' leaders have been unable to deliver on promises after prizing Ukraine loose from centuries of Russian domination and setting it on a course for joining the European mainstream.

Much of the wild optimism, generated by a revolution that turfed out Yanukovich and the Moscow-backed old guard, has evaporated amid slowing economic growth and infighting in the ranks of the leadership over corruption.

Though now enjoying total freedom of expression, ordinary Ukrainians face unpredictable price hikes in basic foodstuffs.

A maddening bureaucracy, a hangover from Soviet times, frustrates vital parts of daily life such as drawing pensions, securing social care and organizing children's schooling.

Growth slumped to 2.6 percent last year compared with 12.1 percent in 2004. Western investors are anxious not to get their fingers burned in a country whose stability is uncertain.

Forty-five parties are running, but polls show that only from five to seven will clear the 3 percent barrier to win seats in the 450-seat parliament.

Voters stood in long lines in early morning sunshine at some polling stations in Kiev, ready to make their choice on an outsized ballot, nearly one meter in length.

"I came here to vote and I will stand here for as long as it takes to cast my vote," said Anna Petrovna, a 62-year-old pensioner. Gennady, 48, came, saw the massive queue and went away again. "I'll come back later when the crowd has gone down," he said. Polls were due to close at 1900 GMT.

COALITION BARGAINING AHEAD

The only certainty after the vote is that a coalition will be needed. Weeks, and perhaps months, of back-room bargaining lie ahead before the country gets a stable, workable government.

Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov said last week that a new government was likely to be formed only in July.

Not only is Yushchenko threatened by the political comeback of his old nemesis. He is also weakened by constitutional reform that has trimmed his powers and given parliament broader authority including that of appointing the prime minister.

Infighting in the Orange camp over corruption charges that prompted Yushchenko to sack his comrade, Tymoshenko, last September further tarnished the image of the liberal leadership.

Now Yushchenko faces the uncomfortable knowledge that he may either have to team up with his old adversary, Yanukovich, or patch up his quarrel with Tymoshenko.

Either marriage of convenience would carry dangers for Yushchenko.

A 'grand coalition' with Yanukovich's party could require concessions from Yushchenko such as sacrificing more strident pro-Western advocates, like Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk.

Tymoshenko told Yushchenko last week that teaming up with Yanukovich would be "tantamount to al Qaeda joining with the U.S. Republican Party." She warned him such a step could erode his grass-roots power base.

But patching up with the charismatic Tymoshenko also comes at a high price for Yushchenko. She would like her old job of premier back, a difficult step given her interventionist views that clash with Yushchenko's free market values.

Source: Reuters

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Ukraine Starts Crucial Parliamentary Elections

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainians began their votes Sunday to elect a new parliament, an election widely regarded as a test for the pro-Western drive promoted by President Viktor Yushchenko since he assumed power in 2004.

Opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych the expected winner in Sunday's Ukrainian elections

The election, for the first time, enables the party or party coalition holding a parliamentary majority to appoint a prime minister, a right that had been owned by the president.

The structure was set under an amendment to Ukraine's constitution adopted in December 2004, the president retains the right to set foreign policy and appoint foreign and defense ministers.

About 37 million electors are prepared to cast their ballots. A total of 45 parties and blocs will vie for the 450 seats in the parliament, but polls show only five to seven parties will exceed the 3 percent threshold.

Three parties -- Our Ukraine headed by President Yushchenko, the Party of Regions led by his pro-Russian rival Viktor Yanukovych and Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko -- are leading the race.

The latest opinion polls suggest the Party of Regions would snatch 30 to 34 percent of votes, Yushchenko's Our Ukraine would gain 17 to 20 percent and Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko would have 14 to 20 percent of support.

Yanukovych, who was defeated in the presidential elections in 2004, advocates closer ties with Russia, promises stability and vows to drop plans to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He enjoys broad support in the east part of the country.

The approval ratings of President Yushchenko slid from 70 percent a year ago to less than 20 percent in recent opinion polls. He has pledged to put Ukraine on the way to the European Union (EU) and NATO and gained backing in the western and central areas of the country.

Tymoshenko, who was fired by Yushchenko as prime minister last September, has vowed to fight corruption and entrenched interests.

But with no single party expected to capture a majority, the country might end up with a coalition government. The talks on forming the new government could drag on for months.

Yushchenko said in a Friday televised speech that the parliamentary election is a choice between the past and the future, and called on Ukrainians to vote for democratic forces.

The president also vowed to hold Ukraine's most democratic election ever since.

"Today, society faces a very simple choice: it is a choice between the past and the future," Yushchenko said.

The landmark elections drew massive attention from Russia and western countries. Over 3,500 observers from the United States, Russia, Britain, the EU and the Commonwealth of Independent States will monitor the race which will also decide regional assemblies and municipal heads.

Source: Xinhua

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Saturday, March 25, 2006

Belarus Police Attack Crowd, Opposition Leader Arrested

MINSK, Belarus -- Belarusian police using gas grenades and clubs broke up a crowd of anti-government protestors on Saturday and arrested opposition leader Aleksandr Milinkevich, eyewitnesses said.

Belarus riot police beat opposition supporters during clashes in Minsk, Belarus, Saturday, after rows of riot police blocked off a central square where opposition leaders planned a rally over the disputed election in Belarus, pushing crowds away in a massive show of force meant to quash persistent protests against President Lukashenko, but thousands of demonstrators defiantly gathered in a nearby park

The assault took place near the Opera Theatre building in the capital Minsk, where demonstrators had gathered following a failed attempt to reach central October Square.

Police charged the crowd shortly after 1500 GMT and were arresting all demonstration participants they could catch. Eyewitnesses reported "hundreds" of demonstrators lying on the ground, some with injuries.

The violence came after six days of peaceful anti-government demonstrations, which began last Sunday after authoritarian Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko was re-elected to office in a fraud-ridden election.

It was not immediately clear how many of the demonstrators were actually injured, and how many of the demonstrators were prone because of police orders to lie down.

Law enforcers arrested the leader of the Belarusian opposition, Aleksander Milinkevich on the central Kubyshev street shortly after the attack began, pulling Milinkevich from his automobile.

The number two man in the opposition, Aleksander Kazulin, was beaten by police before submitting to detention, and hauled off.

Between 2,000 and 4,000 anti-government protestors had gathered in central Minsk before the police assault. There were no early reports as to numbers escaped, and numbers arrested, either from law enforcers or from opposition spokesmen.

Pedestrians and bystanders at some locations showed support to the demonstrators, shouting "Fascists" as the police made arrests.

There apparently was little physical resistance to the police assault, which according to eyewitnesses was carried out by elite OMON special forces troops, and in overwhelming force.

Source: DPA

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Protesters Defy Belarus Police Blockade

MINSK, Belarus -- Thousands of Belarusians defied a massive show of force by the hard-line government Saturday, protesting in streets swarming with riot police and gathering peacefully in a park to denounce President Alexander Lukashenko after a disputed election returned him to power.

Belarus riot police seal off streets from opposition supporters with banned Belarusian flags in Minsk, Belarus, Saturday, March 25, 2006.

Rows of black-clad police blocked a central square where opposition leaders had called for a rally at noon, pushing crowds back in a bid to end a week of unprecedented protests in the tightly controlled former Soviet republic. Demonstrators shouted "Shame!" and "Long live Belarus!"

Tensions mounted swiftly around October Square as police in full riot gear arrived by the busload to shove protesters back. The crowd at a major intersection near the square where Lenin Street meets Independence Avenue quickly swelled from a few hundred to some 3,000.

After gathering on the other side of the sprawling square with a crowd of about the same size, opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich led supporters to a nearby park and the group swelled to as many as 5,000 people.

"The authorities can only confront the striving of the people for change with persecution and violence," Milinkevich told the crowd. Demonstrators held flowers and waved the red-and-white historic flag of the opposition.

"The people have come out today, they have come out in the face of truncheons, in the face of arrests. We are working against dictatorship," Milinkevich said. "The more the authorities conduct repression, the closer they bring themselves to their end."

The tense scene came a day after police stormed a tent camp in the square, the focus of round-the-clock protests over the March 19 election. President Alexander Lukashenko won a new five year-term by a landslide in a vote denounced as a farce by the opposition and criticized in the West as undemocratic.

Hundreds were arrested in the pre-dawn raid Friday. The tough response indicated the government had no intention of allowing the Saturday gathering during which opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich planned to unveil a strategy to drive forward the call for a new election.

Speaking early Saturday outside the jail where many of the protesters were taken from the tent camp, Milinkevich vowed to press ahead with a major demonstration marking the anniversary of Belarus' first independence declaration in 1918.

"We're not planning any violence, any taking of the Bastille. We want a peaceful demonstration," he said, standing with his wife and about 100 relatives of detained activists. "I hope the authorities understand this."

Police took no immediate action against the rally in the park, and did not appear to be preventing people from joining the demonstration. A row of police buses stood nearby across a street.

"I am tired of being afraid, and the fear is leaving me," said Yelena Sokolovskaya, 44, an accountant who stood at the rally in the park. She said the government's claims that the economy is thriving are "a lie Milinkevich speaks the truth."

A three-man crew from Belarusian state television, which has aired repeated reports showing the protests in an extremely negative light, was leaving the park as protesters in the crowd pelted them with snowballs and shouted "Shame on Belarusian television!"

The election set off an unprecedented week of protests, beginning with an election-night demonstration that drew some 10,000 people to Oktyabrskaya Square an enormous turnout in a country where police usually suppress unauthorized gatherings swiftly and brutally. Protesters raised the stakes at another rally Monday, setting up tents where hundreds stayed through the night and remained until the raid at 3 a.m. Friday.

Police arrested hundreds of people in connection with the protests, but their failure to break up the camp over several days raised opposition hopes of establishing a foothold. Those hopes ended when riot police stormed in, wrestling about 50 protesters into trucks and taking away hundreds of others who didn't resist.

The European Union and the United States said Friday that they will impose sanctions on Lukashenko, who they say has turned Belarus into Europe's last dictatorship since his first election in 1994, and both called for an immediate end to the crackdown on the opposition.

EU leaders said the bloc would take "restrictive measures" against Lukashenko, including a likely travel ban and a possible freeze of Belarusian assets in Europe. The White House said the U.S. would act in unison with the EU.

Those measures seemed unlikely to influence Lukashenko, who despises the West and has allied his country with Russia. In a statement late Friday, the Foreign Ministry said the sanctions had "no prospects" and that Belarus reserves the right to take retaliatory measures.

Source: AP

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A Tale Of Two Elections

LONDON, UK -- Ukraine's voters go to the polls on Sunday to elect a new Parliament. With Viktor Yushchenko's erstwhile rival for the presidency, Viktor Yanukovich, leading in the campaign, and his party looking to become the largest in the new Parliament.

Viktor Yushchenko on television appealing to voters

Some Western commentators are already predicting a defeat for the "Orange Revolution."

But this misses the point. The Orange Revolution of 2004 was not a movement to get a particular party or individual into power in Ukraine. It was a popular movement that brought together people of different political persuasions united by one powerful idea - to end lies and falsification and to defend the freedom to choose their leaders.

The Ukrainian people chose a new direction that winter, one that took them toward a genuine European democracy. In that objective they have been and will be successful, whoever wins these elections.

We often forget that making such radical changes and reforms takes time. A new democratic system does not appear overnight.

Prime Minister Tony Blair summed up the view of the wider international community at the EU- Ukraine Summit in Kiev on Dec. 1 when he said, "I hope people in Ukraine are in no doubt of what a difference the last year has made to the way that the Ukraine is viewed in the world."

A lot has already changed in Ukraine since the winter of 2004. The international observers will give their verdict on Monday, but their initial reports show that the campaign has been free and lively. There has been debate and discussion among all the protagonists in Ukraine's news media, and rallies have been held by parties across the country. Ukraine's cities are festooned with the bright colors - blue, orange, green, white, yellow, red - of Ukraine's competing parties.

What a contrast with Ukraine before the Orange Revolution! The campaign for the 2004 presidential elections was a very different story. The opposition could not campaign in many areas of the country. It was excluded from most television channels.

Its leader was poisoned in the middle of the campaign. But ultimately the old regime in Kiev proved no match for the determination of ordinary people to express their choice freely and democratically. The rest, as they say, is history.

But it is also history in the making. Whatever the result in Sunday's election, Ukraine will have taken another step forward in its democratic development and therefore in its integration into the modern Europe.

Pluralism in politics, freedom in the media and the conduct of free and fair elections are key indicators in Ukraine's action plans with NATO and the EU.

A free election in Ukraine will have a profound effect on the region too. We have just seen the most appalling travesty of democracy in Ukraine's neighbor, Belarus. The conduct of the election there was characterized by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe monitors as showing "a disregard for the basic rights of freedom of assembly, association and expression."

Yet depressing as it is to see Aleksandr Lukashenko securing another term as president with an implausible 83 percent of the vote, there is still reason to be optimistic for Belarus. These elections showed that there are people in Belarus who are ready to unite in the fight for democratic values.

Lukashenko blames that on external interference. But in doing so, he misreads his people. Belarussians are not so different from people the world over. They expect honesty and accountability from their government. They expect to have the choice of who governs them. No government that ignores that can be sustainable. There's no place for dictatorship in Europe.

Ukraine's elections will be followed by a normal democratic tussle as parties seek to form a new coalition government. We look forward to working with whatever government emerges. We hope it will remain committed to President Yushchenko's reformist course, that it will vigorously pursue the fight against corruption and that it will continue Ukraine's remarkable democratic development.

As for Belarus, we won't forget the Belarussian people and their attempt to make their voice heard. We need to stand by them, as we did the people of Ukraine.

Source: International Herald Tribune

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Will Election See Russia's 'Stooge' Become Ukraine's Comeback Kid?

KIEV, Ukraine -- The "Russian stooge" who spectacularly lost Ukraine's orange revolution and saw his dream of becoming president shattered by hundreds of thousands of street protesters has staged a remarkable comeback that could bring his party a win in crunch elections tomorrow.

Viktor Yanukovych (L) with his mentor Vladimir Putin (R)

In an improbable turn of events, the party of Viktor Yanukovych, the Party of the Regions, is forecast to win more votes than any other.

In December 2004, Mr Yanukovych looked like a broken man who had been overtaken by the march of democracy and the political fashion of the moment: velvet revolutions.

His campaigners were exposed as electoral cheats who had tried to rig the vote in his favour and he was denounced as President Vladimir Putin's puppet.

The hero of the revolution, Viktor Yushchenko, was hailed as a progressive pro-Western champion of justice and went on to become President.

It seemed inconceivable that Mr Yanukovych would again be a contender to rule Ukraine. Effigies of him were burnt in the street, his youthful criminal record was dug up, and there were calls for him to be jailed.

But if a week is a long time in politics, a year and three months appear to be an age.

Yesterday Mr Yanukovych's supporters massed on a central Kiev square to chant his name as he promised them victory after a poll predicted his party would win just over 30 per cent of the vote. The same poll gave Mr Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party some 17 per cent.

No matter how well he does, 55-year-old Mr Yanukovych will not become Ukrainian president, because the elections are parliamentary not presidential.

But his comeback could give him a big say in the formation of a new government and in the appointment of a new prime minister, because it is the new parliament and not the president that will choose who gets which job.

Perhaps more tellingly, Mr Yanukovych's unlikely political resurrection shows how sorely Mr Yushchenko and his orange team have disappointed, and how damaging a split at the heart of the revolutionary team has proved.

Last September, Mr Yushchenko sacked his entire government including his prime minister and heroine of the orange revolution, the charismatic Yulia Tymoshenko. Mr Yushchenko cited infighting in the cabinet, personality clashes, and corruption.

Ms Tymoshenko, known to her fans as "the orange princess" and " Ukraine's Joan of Arc", was devastated. The glamorous 45-year-old is looking for a comeback in Sunday's election which she is contesting under the banner of her own political movement, Yulia's Bloc.

Her party is forecast to win about the same number of votes as Mr Yushchenko's and her hope is that he will make her his prime minister again, and that the orange revolution will be back on track.

If Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yushchenko reunite, she believes they might be able to keep the resurgent Mr Yanukovych from wielding too much influence. She insists she has not got a bad word to say about the man who effectively ditched her, President Yushchenko.

"Our support for the President is guaranteed because we did a lot to make him President," she says. "I would like to return to power to strengthen his position." Though she concedes that the orange revolution has disappointed many, Ms Tymoshenko is passionate that it has changed Ukraine irrevocably and for the better.

If she wins back power, she promises to root out the unscrupulous oligarchs and officials she failed to sack first time round.

Source: The Independent

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Belarus 'Dictator' Banned From Entering EU And US

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- The re-elected president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has been cast into international isolation after his security forces launched a fresh crackdown on opposition leaders.

Belarus special police arrest an opposition supporter on the main square in Minsk. Belarus' opposition called for a mass rally in a new show of force against the regime of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko

Mr Lukashenko, who has been described as Europe's last dictator, will be banned from entering the 25 nations of the EU - including Ukraine's neighbours, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania - and from the US.

The EU had already promised to increase its sanctions against Belarus after denouncing last Sunday's elections as flawed. But EU countries were hesitating over whether to include Mr Lukashenko, giving him the same pariah status as Robert Mugabe, the President of Zimbabwe.

Those doubts were swept aside after a crackdown on protesters in Minsk who were complaining about the conduct of the elections and seeking to emulate the demonstrations seen in Ukraine before the orange revolution in December 2004. The opposition said 500 people were detained.

EU heads of government promised to take "restrictive measures against those responsible for the violations of international standards, including Mr Lukashenko". Washington quickly announced that it would follow suit.

EU diplomats are drawing up a list of Belarussian officials who will be targeted by "smart sanctions" and final decisions will be taken on 10 April. Asset bans are also being considered though there is no reliable information on whether Mr Lukashenko has financial holdings in western Europe.

Poland's Foreign Minister, Stefan Meller, said the list of those affected was still being drawn up and it was likely to be extensive.

Official results from Sunday's election showed that Mr Lukashenko had won a landslide victory over the opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich. But international observers said the vote was neither free nor fair with the opposition denied access to the media.

EU leaders demanded a release of all protesters. Mr Milinkevich may be invited to the next meeting of EU foreign ministers in April.

Source: Independent Online

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U.S. And EU Assail Belarus Crackdown

MINSK, Belarus -- The United States and Europe on Friday denounced the crackdown on peaceful demonstrators in Belarus and said they would impose sanctions against President Aleksandr Lukashenko and other top officials, widening the rift between Belarus and the West and posing new challenges for the West's relations with Russia.

Riot policemen arrest a supporter of the main opposition presidential candidate Alexander Milinkevich in downtown Minsk. Belarus quashed an unprecedented mass protest against authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, smashing a tent camp, arresting hundreds of opposition supporters and triggering an angry response from the West.

The announcement came as Belarussian authorities were processing hundreds of demonstrators in a Soviet- era prison here in the capital, and holding what the opposition described as closed trials without legal representation or defense witnesses.

The opposition also said many detainees were being beaten, denied the use of toilets, forced to stand for hours outside in subfreezing temperatures and then packed by nearly the score into small prison cells.

"It is a horrible violation of human rights and the law," said Aleksandr Milinkevich, the principal challenger to Lukashenko in the tainted presidential election on March 19. "They do not consider us to be people."

Neither Lukashenko nor his government made any immediate comment about the new round of planned sanctions. But in an appearance on Monday, Lukashenko had said he expected further actions against Belarus and was defiant. "We have lived in international isolation for so long," he said.

He added that no matter what steps were taken against his government, Europe would hardly be able to restrict its trade with Belarus, which is a main transit route to the West for Russian gas and oil.

Still, the diplomatic statements from the West on Friday were notable in their swiftness and near unanimity in condemning the Belarussian president and the actions of his police.

As many as 1,000 people have been arrested in the last several days for participating in rallies or supporting the opposition with such gestures as trying to give demonstrators food, according to Milinkevich and Aleksandr Kazulin, another presidential candidate. The United States echoed public appeals by both candidates for Belarus to release the prisoners immediately.

"The United States calls on authorities in Belarus to release without delay the hundreds of citizens who have been detained, not only in the past 24 hours but in recent days and weeks, simply for expressing their political views," said the White House spokesman, Scott McClellan.

Calling Belarus "a sad exception" to democracy in Europe, leaders of the European Union said they would add Lukashenko's name to an existing visa ban in place against six Belarussian officials. The move puts him on the same blacklist as President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Burma's military leaders, all of whom have had their European assets frozen.

The Polish foreign minister, Stefan Meller, said new restrictions, which will take effect around April 10, could involve more than a dozen people. "This is a fight of good against evil," he said.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said Europe must take action "to restrict those that prevented free choice."

The crackdown puts new strain on relations between the West and Russia, which has congratulated Lukashenko for his official victory and said the election, seen in the West as a self-evident farce, marked "the development of democratic institutions and the strengthening of the foundations of civic society in Belarus."

European leaders said they hoped Russia would re-evaluate its stance. "We have to be tough, but we also have to speak with our Russian friends - that is the most important," said Luxembourg's foreign minister, Jean Asselborn.

But Russia, which holds the rotating chairmanship of the Group of 8 industrialized nations, showed no sign of rethinking its embrace of Lukashenko, the former head of a Soviet collective farm who runs the country with an authoritarian grip.

Rather than condemn the crackdown or a president often called Europe's last dictator, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov signaled approval during a press conference in Moscow.

He dismissed the protests as "illegal activities" and accused a European election-monitoring organization of having prejudged the election and instigated the demonstrations that followed.

"It has played an inflammatory role," Lavrov said of the organization, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which includes Russia as a member.

"To goad people into illegal activities is, I think, wrong," he added, according to a transcript of his remarks provided by the Foreign Ministry.

Christian Strohal, director of the organization's human rights arm, responded in a statement that Lavrov's statements showed "a deliberate disregard" for the facts.

Tension in Minsk was hardly lessened by the police activity. For all of the crackdown's speed and efficiency, with hundreds of protesters being removed from their camp on October Square by riot police in less than 25 minutes early Friday, the action seemed to have done little to break the opposition's will.

Opposition members and relatives of the arrested gathered outside the walls of the pretrial detention center and cheered every time a bus with prisoners left the compound. Hands could sometimes be seen from behind the bars of the detention center's cells as prisoners waved to their peers outside.

The unrest in recent days has been small in scale but significant in its intensity, marking the first sustained public dissent in Lukashenko's 12 years of rule. Freedom of assembly and speech are almost nonexistent here, and the economy remains state-managed. For the first time, however, thousands of people have publicly defied the government for nearly an entire week.

Milinkevich called for wide sanctions against Belarussian officials, including against Belarussian television journalists he said had knowingly spread lies on state television. And he said a rally planned for Saturday on October Square would go forward, no matter how few people showed up.

The event seems certain to present a new challenge to the government, if only on a small scale. Several demonstrators who have thus far eluded arrest said they would appear on the square, against the government's orders, in a continued show of support and civil disobedience.

"We have become ripe for change," said Sergei Karievsky, 50, an architect who spent three full nights on the square but was not arrested on Friday morning because he had gone home to rest for the weekend rally. "We are no longer afraid."

One young man, who said he escaped from the crackdown early Friday by running from the police as they began seizing the demonstrators, stood on the square Friday afternoon, wearing a red- and-white button that read "For Freedom." The protester, who gave only his first name, Mikhail, said that he would be back with more demonstrators on Saturday and that he expected he would be arrested.

He said it was important to continue the opposition's struggle, but he was not sure how many people would attend, knowing that they risk their jobs and their placement in universities and may end up in jail.

"Either there will be many demonstrators or very few," he said. "It is hard to predict the reactions of people, because it is hard to live under this kind of pressure."

Source: International Herald Tribune

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Ukraine Denounces Russia Over Language-Status Position

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said Friday that Moscow's calls to recognize the special status of the Russian language in some regions of the country were illegal and provocative.


"Ukraine condemns attempts to engage in opportunism to stress the issue of 'Ukraine's Russian-speaking citizens'," said Vasiliy Filipchuk, the head of the ministry's press service.

Ukraine will elect a new parliament Sunday and the status of the Russian language has become a hotly debated issue in some areas.

On March 21, the Russian Foreign Ministry welcomed a controversial move made by the authorities of Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, to make Russian a regional language. The municipal authorities of the city, which is in the largely Russian-speaking east of the country, made the initiative referring to the European Charter of Regional Languages, which has been ratified by Ukraine's parliament.

Filipchuk said the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry took the view that its Russian counterpart's position on the matter amounted to "undisguised interference with the Ukrainian state's internal affairs."

Many Ukrainians speak and understand Russian, which was the dominant language in the times of the Soviet Union, but Ukrainian became the country's sole official language after it declared independence in 1991.

President Viktor Yushchenko condemned the Kharkov decision last week, saying it failed to comply with the country's interests.

"I do not welcome such steps," he said speaking at Kharkov National University. "A court should provide legal appraisal of this [move]."

Another Russian official, Alexander Chepurin, the head of the Foreign Ministry's department for dealing with compatriots overseas, said the country's strategic aim was to make Russians abroad full-fledged citizens in the country of their residence.

Chepurin said 22% of the Ukrainian population were ethnic Russians.

However, officials in Ukraine have staunchly resisted calls to promote the status of Russian. On Wednesday, parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, who is considered to be pro-Russian by some, also spoke against Russian becoming an official language as it would replace Ukrainian. "This is impossible in a country called Ukraine," he said.

With the parliamentary polls approaching, the status of Russian has become something of a battleground, but Lytvyn, who heads his own eponymous bloc, said people who could speak no language perfectly were raising the issue of two languages.

Source: RIA Novosti

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Friday, March 24, 2006

U.S. To Impose Sanctions On Belarusan Leaders

WASHINGTON, DC -- The White House today denounced the suppression of political protests against election fraud in Belarus and said the United States plans to join European nations in imposing sanctions on Belarusan leaders.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan

In a morning news briefing, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the United States demands the immediate release of hundreds of protesters who have been arrested for demonstrating against the reportedly rigged March 19 elections, which President Alexander Lukashenko claims to have won with 83 percent of the vote.

Riot police broke up days of demonstrations in Minsk, the Belarusan capital, early today, arresting about 200 protesters who had been camped out in the main square and driving them away in trucks.

The opposition, whose candidate received only 6 percent of the vote, charged that the election was blatantly fraudulent, an assertion backed by independent election observers and the United States.

Under Lukashenko, 51, a former Soviet collective farm manager who came to power in 1994 as an anti-corruption crusader, Belarus has become one of the world's "outposts of tyranny," as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has described half a dozen authoritarian countries.

But the man dubbed by Western critics as "Europe's last dictator" has won the support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose foreign minister defended today's police action against the protesters.

McClellan told reporters, "The United States calls on authorities in Belarus to release without delay the hundreds of citizens who have been detained not only in the past 24 hours but in recent days and weeks simply for expressing their political views."

He said that "we strongly condemn the actions by Belarusan security services," who "forcibly seized and detained citizens of Belarus who were peacefully demonstrating against the fraudulent March 19th election results."

Praising the European Council's decision to impose sanctions on Belarusan leaders, McClellan said, "We plan to take parallel steps involving targeted travel restrictions and financial sanctions." The U.S. sanctions appeared likely to include travel restrictions against Lukashenko and other top Belarusan officials.

McClellan said the United States urges "all members of the international community to demand that authorities in Belarus respect the rights of their own citizens to express themselves peacefully and to condemn any and all abuses."

Lukashenko has denied being a dictator but has freely acknowledged his authoritarian tendencies.

"An authoritarian style of rule is characteristic of me, and I have always admitted it," he said in 2003, according to a BBC profile. "You need to control the country, and the main thing is not to ruin people's lives."

On his English-language Web site, he makes no mention of the latest crackdown on the opposition, but says: "Being the President, I sometimes have to take unpopular decisions. I know that I will not be liked because of that.

But my objective is to urge everybody to love the country where we live and respect the authorities which have never abandoned the people in grief." He adds, "To protect people is my main job."

Election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe concluded that the March 19 polls were not free and fair, citing a "pattern of intimidation" by the state throughout the campaign.

However, some Western and Russian polling organizations have found considerable popular support for Lukashenko in Belarus, which has recorded strong economic growth under his presidency and has avoided some of the pitfalls of the transition to capitalism experienced by other former Soviet republics.

Lukashenko began his political career in 1990 when he was elected to the Supreme Soviet of the Republic of Belarus shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union. He founded a group called Communists for Democracy and voted against dissolving the Soviet Union. But he ran for president in 1994 as a populist independent dedicated to cleaning up government corruption.

He angered the United States in the late 1990s by exporting arms to U.S. adversaries, including Iran, Iraq, Sudan and Yugoslavia.

Source: The Washington Post

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Poll Shows Ukraine’s Yushchenko May Lose Parliamentary Vote

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko, swept to power in the Orange Revolution of 2004, may be the loser in this weekend’s parliamentary elections, thwarting plans to forge closer ties with the European Union and NATO, Bloomberg reported Friday citing the latest public opinion poll.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko

Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party ranked second in the last poll conducted before the vote, 13 percentage points behind the Regions Party of Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych, who lost to Yushchenko in a re-run of the disputed presidential election that sparked the November 2004 street protests, supports closer ties with Russia.

Optimism fostered by the revolution has dissipated amid slowing economic growth, accelerating inflation and a split between Yushchenko and his first prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, after allegations of corruption. The president and his erstwhile ally may be forced to overcome their differences, said Ariel Cohen, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

“The revolution-era allies will agree on a coalition in the new parliament as any alliance between Yushchenko with Yanukovych isn’t possible,’’ Cohen said on March 22. ”If Yanukovych becomes prime minister, there is no way Ukraine will enter NATO at all.’’

The Regions Party was backed by 30.4 percent of voters in a Feb. 26-March 6 survey of 2009 eligible voters by the Kiev-based Democratic Initiative Fund. Yushchenko’s party ranked second, with 17.1 percent. Timoshenko’s party had 17 percent support. The survey had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

Polls open at 7 a.m. on March 26 and close at 10 p.m. Local media will issue exit polls, with the first official results expected to be released on March 27. The new parliament may hold its first session two weeks after the results are published.

A cabinet must be formed within 30 days of the first session. If a government isn’t formed in time, Yushchenko has the right to dissolve parliament and call new elections.

Yanukovych, 55, who draws much of his support from the Russian-speaking regions in the east of the country, seeks closer ties with Russia.

Yushchenko, 52, has pledged to sell off more of the country’s biggest companies, such as national phone company VAT Ukrtelecom and win membership in the World Trade Organization, the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

U.S. President George W. Bush signed a measure yesterday giving Ukraine permanent normal trade relations, a prerequisite for that country to join the WTO.

The Bush administration and the Ukraine government worked out terms for joining the WTO earlier this year. Yushchenko was cited by members of the U.S. Congress as a key reason to support the measure. The measure passed Congress earlier this month.

Yuriy Yekhanurov, Ukraine’s acting Prime Minister and leader of Yushchenko’s party, said in a March 19 interview it may take as long as two months to agree on a new prime minister and cabinet.

Ukraine attracted a record $7.86 billion in foreign direct investment 2005 after the sale of the country’s biggest steelmaker and the second-largest bank. Still, the average monthly wage was about $150 in 2005, compared with $300 in Russia, $770 in Poland and $4,500 in Germany, according to Bloomberg data.

Growth of the $80 billion Ukrainian economy slowed to 2.6 percent last year from 12.3 percent the previous year after companies delayed expansion plans following Tymoshenko’s calls for revision of the property rights.

Source: MosNews

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Ukraine - The Orange Tide Has Turned

KIEV, Ukraine -- Some 15 months on from Ukraine's Orange revolution, the political tide in the country appears to have turned. Viktor Yanukovich, the loser in that revolution, and his Party of the Regions are leading in the polls in the run-up to the parliamentary elections.

Yulia Tymoshenko (L) and Viktor Yushchenko (R) during honeymoon

The heroes of the revolution, current President Viktor Yuschenko and former prime minister Julia Timoshenko, fell out with one another, but a coalition between their two parties would appear to be the only way to keep Mr Yanukovich out of government after the nation has voted.

No less than 45 parties have registered to take part in Ukraine's parliamentary election on 26 March, but no more than eight are expected to pass the barrier - three percent of the popular vote - needed to enter parliament. One thing that is certain is that the main players in last year's Orange revolution will be back in the new parliament.

However, the current leader in the opinion polls is the Party of the Regions, led by Viktor Yanukovich, the politician who was ignominiously thrown out of office for fixing the presidential elections. His party now looks likely to take 25 to 30 percent of the votes in the general election.

Meanwhile, former allies President Yuschenko and ex-prime minister Julia Timoshenko are no longer on speaking terms. They both have their own parties: Mr Yuschenko's Our Ukraine, which is predicted to attract 20 percent of the popular vote, and the Julia Timoshenko bloc, which could take around 17 percent.

Honeymoon over

Political analyst Vadim Karashov doesn't believe this split between the revolutionary heroes is a problem:

"The revolution's honeymoon is over. Just as in a marriage, that's not a permanent situation in a society or a political battle for liberty either. Moreover, Ukraine no longer has the kind of artificial unity that dictators impose. In short, the development of the political fight is a totally normal thing, and in fact characteristic of a democracy."

Mr Karashov says that, in Ukraine, it's not only a matter of a fight between the political parties, but also between the country's regions. Viktor Yanukovich's party is using this to its advantage and is already dominant in the eastern part of the country, which borders Russia.

No to NATO

Mr Karashov says Mr Yanukovich, a man with a criminal past who went on to make a career for himself inside the Communist Party, has skilfully changed to suit the spirit of the times. The concept of 'Europe', which he once rejected totally, is now something which he embraces.

He also wants to introduce Russian as the country's second official language alongside Ukrainian, and his third campaign issue - a firm "No" to the idea of joining NATO - is also popular with a majority of the population. Mr Karashov happens to agree with him on the subject of NATO membership:

"Membership of NATO would drive a wedge through Ukraine. The eastern part, which is highly Russia oriented, would never agree to that. Neutrality is what is needed. However, a non-military orientation towards Europe wouldn't be a problem in fact it could help promote Ukrainian unity."

However, even though Mr Yanukovich may be in tune with popular feeling right now, that doesn't mean his party will automatically be running the show after the elections, because a coalition government will be inevitable. Mr Karashov thinks such a government might also be formed without having to include the Party of the Regions.

The reputations of the heroes of the Orange Revolution have indeed been damaged by the stagnation in economic growth - under former prime minister Timoshenko - and the shady gas deal with Russia - under the leadership of President Yuschenko - but the feud between the former prime minister and the current president could be patched up, especially if that opens up the way to government power once again.

Source: Radio Netherlands

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Thursday, March 23, 2006

NATO Nations Turn To Ukraine, Russia For Airlift

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- NATO nations are turning to a Russian-Ukrainian joint venture to help make up for a chronic shortage of large aircraft able to ferry troops and heavy equipment to troublespots.

The Antonov-124

The alliance will hold a ceremony in the east German city of Leipzig on Thursday to mark the start of an accord giving it access at a few days' notice to six Antonov-124 Ruslan aircraft.

"We are very happy with the deal. This gives us assured access to outsized cargo lift," said Bruneau Cantin, head of logistics at NATO's International Staff in Brussels.

"We have no security concerns. This will be subject to the usual international standards for commercial agreements of this kind," he added, asked whether NATO had qualms about relying on former Cold War foes for key strategic equipment.

Cantin declined to give financial details of the agreement between 16 countries and Ruslan Salis, a German unit of Russia's Volga-Dnepr Group. Ukraine's Antonov Design Bureau, designer of the Antonov-124s, is also involved in the accord, he said.

The 16 countries that will benefit from the agreement are: Canada, the Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, France, Britain, Hungary, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and non-NATO Sweden and Finland.

Cantin said nations would be able to decide whether they used the planes for NATO, European Union or national missions.

Two of the Antonovs will be based in Leipzig, available at three days' notice. Four will be based in either Ukraine or Russia and will be ready within 6-9 days.

The United States has more than 200 strategic lift aircraft but among its European allies only Britain, with four leased Boeing C-17s, has a similar capability.

Most European countries have static or falling defence budgets and have been wondering for years how to boost their collective airlift capability.

Britain has urged European partners to come up with ideas for increasing their lift capacity before a NATO summit in October, exploring commercial leasing, chartering or other options.

Source: Reuters

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Yushenko's Orange Credentials Questioned

KIEV, Ukraine -- Days before Ukraine's parliamentary elections, fiery politician Yulia Tymoshenko challenged President Viktor Yushchenko to clarify to voters whether his main political bloc would form a coalition with their common foe from the 2004 Orange Revolution - the Donetsk-based Regions of Ukraine bloc.

The always beautiful Yulia Tymoshenko

The move by Tymoshenko, who was one of Yushchenko's closest allies until being sacked by the president last fall, is seen as a last-minute attempt to squeeze votes out of the pro-presidential Our Ukraine bloc.

Our Ukraine officials have rushed to deny widespread speculation that they may unite with Regions, whose leader Viktor Yanukovych lost the 2004 presidential elections to Yushchenko as a result of the country?s Orange Revolution.

But Tymoshenko's ultimatum serves as a warning to voters that Our Ukraine, which is now competing with Tymoshenko's Byut bloc for the divided Orange vote, could nevertheless form a majority coalition with Regions in the new parliament.

"The people should know whether the coalition negotiations are being held between the Regions of Ukraine and Our Ukraine," Tymoshenko said at a press conference on March 21.

"Otherwise they will not be able to make an informed decision," added the former premier, who has repeatedly vowed that her bloc would not take part in a coalition with the people behind Regions, whom she and others blame for the election fraud that sparked off the Orange Revolution.

Tymoshenko insisted Our Ukraine and Regions were close to reaching a deal, with each side floating candidates for top-level posts in the government, which, following recent constitutional changes, will be largely appointed by the new parliament.

Political analysts have predicted in recent months that Our Ukraine was more likely to form a majority with Regions than with Tymoshenko, who has positioned herself in opposition to Yushchenko since being ousted as prime minister in September.

Regions, which draws most of its support from eastern and southern Ukraine, has about 30 percent voter support according to recent polls. Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko, stronger in the west and center of the nation, trail with 20 percent voter support or lower.

Our Ukraine officials have contradicted each other when asked about their bloc's future coalition plans.

For example, Our Ukraine leader Roman Bezsmernty rushed to dismiss Tymoshenko's charges on March 21 with a statement suggesting that his bloc was in coalition talks with Tymoshenko. He did not, however, confirm whether or not talks with Regions were underway or being considered.

"I was surprised to hear Tymoshenko speak about coalition talks between Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions," Bezsmertny said.

"Last week for the first time during the election campaign, I met with Tymoshenko, upon her initiative, and we discussed the issue of a future Orange coalition," he added.

Moreover, Bezsmernty accused Tymoshenko herself of collaborating with the Regions bloc and other political groups that had backed former President Leonid Kuchma, explaining that her faction voted along side them on numerous occasions.

Bezsmertny said this would-be "coalition tried to oust the government" of Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov earlier this year. It was Yekhanurov who replaced Tymoshenko last fall.

Earlier this week, another leading member of Our Ukraine, David Zhvania, said an Our Ukraine-Regions coalition was possible.

Political analysts have noted that Our Ukraine, caught in a dog fight for votes with Tymoshenko's Byut, could lose support if it admitted to negotiating with Regions.

Some have argued that a coalition between Regions and Our Ukraine would prove more stable and business-friendly than a coalition based on Our Ukraine and Byut. By uniting, both blocs would form a base for a coalition with support across the country.

Moreover, an Our Ukraine-Regions coalition is considered more business-friendly than one based on Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko, who was sharply criticized for spooking investor confidence as premier when she called for more reviews of controversial privatization deals conducted under Ukraine's previous administration.

Our Ukraine and Regions have opposed further privatization reviews, while Tymoshenko has adopted a more radical approach, calling for punishment of crimes committed under President Leonid Kuchma's administration.

Nevertheless, Our Ukraine is making every effort to convince voters that it has not lost it Orange Revolution values.

"Our political values and democratic style are diametrically opposite to those of the Regions of Ukraine Party," Bezsmertniy said in a statement circulated by Our Ukraine on March 21.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Time for Pora

KIEV, Ukraine -- On March 26, Ukrainians will go to the polls to elect a new parliament, which will wield significantly more powers than the current one as a result of the constitutional reforms passed in the midst of the Orange Revolution.

Vitali Klitschko (Center)

But now the main players in the Orange coalition – President Viktor Yushchenko, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz – are opponents, each with their own bloc assured of overcoming the new 3 percent hurdle needed to enter the Rada.

Other likely winners include the Communists, the bloc led by parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn and the powerful Regions of Ukraine party, which has scored above the rest in public opinion polls with some 30 percent of voters’ support.

Watching the race from the sidelines, one couldn’t be blamed for confusing the various platforms. Yes, the Communists and Socialists are just what their names imply, while Regions is based in the industrial and Russian-speaking east.

The elections often seem to be more about business interests than ideologies. A few blocs, like Ne Tak and the Progressive Socialists, are at least pretty clear about what they don’t stand for – integration with the West, the preeminence of the Ukrainian language and the Yushchenko administration. But the rest seem to espouse disturbingly familiar policies.

Of particular difficulty is deciding between Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko’s Byut. Our Ukraine has been accused of being run by tycoons and compromising on its lofty principles ever since becoming the party of power. Meanwhile, Tymoshenko’s populism and predilection for controlling the economy by hand has scared investors.

Somewhere above it all, we are all vaguely aware of the need to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty from renewed attempt by Russia to rebuild its empire, and no one doubts the necessity for reforms. But only a stable parliamentary majority can pass legislation to put the economy on track and strengthen the country across the board.

This majority will be carved out by at least two of the big boys: the Regions, Our Ukraine or Byut. Some hope all three come to an agreement, but if this doesn’t happen, one or two smaller parties will take on greater importance than their voter support would suggest.

One of them is Pora-PRP, an alliance of the baby brother of the Orange coalition and the Reforms & Order party. Pora is best remembered for manning the Maidan protests with young people dressed in yellow. Reforms and Order is headed by Finance Minister Viktor Pynzenyk.

Recent polls indicate that the bloc has a chance to pass the 3 percent barrier required for representation in parliament. We hope they succeed. For us, this means an injection of youth with a healthy side order of tried and tested market economy proponents – and experts.

Pora-PRP, which clearly supports free market reforms, would counterbalance possible leftist coalition partners, such as the Socialists and Tymoshenko’s Byut, which has exhibited leftist protectionist tendencies. Pora-PRP would also serve as a watchdog, much as it has since the Orange Revolution, boosting transparency in the future parliament and coalition. We would not say they are totally, clean, but they appear less likely to compromise on key principles, such as free market reforms, which are badly needed to fuel more growth and prosperity in Ukraine.

Moreover, their youth and energy can only be a plus. The Post’s endorsement for this year’s parliamentary race is Pora-PRP.

And as it turns out, March 26 is also the day of Kyiv’s mayoral elections. The candidate from Pora-PRP is former heavyweight boxing champ Vitali Klitschko, whom we also endorse. Kyiv Mayor Oleksandr Omelchenko, who leads in the polls ahead of Klitschko, has done a lot for the capital, but has failed to solve serious problems.

New shopping centers, which have popped up across Kyiv, are a welcome addition, and the construction boom is a sign of prosperity. But traffic jams and ongoing corruption in the obtainment of building permits isn’t. Why does prized land in Kyiv continue to be allotted through what more often seem like closed insider deals orchestrated through city council rulings than through open tenders in which the highest bidder wins?

It’s time for Omelchenko, whose been in office for about decade, to pass the helm to someone else. Klitschko is an internationally recognized trademark and a symbol of national pride. More importantly, he has lived extensively in the West, not the least important experience for a capital facing Europe. No one is claiming that the gentlemanly giant is an experienced administrator, but that didn’t stop Arnold Schwarzenegger, or Ronald Reagan for that matter.

Like many of his competitors, Klitschko is a Ukrainian millionaire who is less than forthcoming about where he puts his money. But no one should doubt his skills and merits as an ambassador or potential for attracting investments.

He speaks fluent German and decent English. One of Ukraine’s greatest obstacles has always been providing a solid image in the eyes of investors. The country’s other problem has been corruption, precisely what Klitschko has vowed to eradicate. Let’s give him a chance. There’s no doubt that the man is a fighter.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Sexy Blonde Tina Karol To Sing For Ukraine At Eurovision

KIEV, Ukraine -- Young, pretty, and fiery – that’s the image Ukraine will present at this year’s Eurovision Song Contest, a widely popular European television music contest.

Tina Karol being interviewed on a local Kiev radio station

The 20-year-old vivacious blonde, Tina Karol, whose real name is Tanya Liberman, was selected earlier this month by the unanimous decision of a Ukrainian jury and the votes of local television viewers.

The young singer is now set to perform at the show, which will have an estimated audience of over 100 million and will take place in Athens, Greece, in May 2006.

Karol, who comes from a western Ukrainian family with a Jewish father, will compete with more than 30 artists from other European countries.

“Eurovision for me is a window to Europe and an opportunity to popularize Ukraine and Ukrainian music,” said Karol, who’s life has taken on a crazy rhythm these days as she gets ready to depart to Athens on May 10.

The Eurovision Song Contest grabbed the attention of average Ukrainians in 2004, when the now-legendary Ukrainian singer Ruslana won the contest with a spirited performance. Ukraine started participating in Eurovision in 2003. Ruslana was the first Ukrainian to win the contest.

Karol said she hopes to represent Ukraine with “the best results,” too, adding that she will not concentrate too much on the victory.

“I don’t want to put too much pressure on myself thinking what a high responsibility this is before my country,” Karol said playfully.

Karol’s Ukrainian producers, meanwhile, admit that Eurovision is a chance to promote the singer more than anything else.

“The Eurovision contest is a TV show and it has little to do with music,” said Eduard Klim, a producer at Lavina Music recording company, who had promoted such Ukrainian artists as Ani Lorak and Okean Elzy.

“Victory at Eurovision is all about a masterfully arranged public relations campaign for a singer, and the song itself is of little importance,” Klim said, adding that it was, in fact, the titanic work of Ruslana’s PR team that made her victorious at Eurovision-2004.

While her music does not sell in large quantities in the West, Ruslana’s victory at Eurovision helped establish her as the face of Ukrainian music in the world. For Ukrainian artists, Klim said, participating in Eurovision is the only real opportunity to show themselves to large European audiences.

“Other contests are nearly impossible for us to get in,” he added.

Karol became famous on the music scene of the former Soviet Union last July, when she took second prize in Novaya Volna (the New Wave) contest for young singers. The renowned Russian singer Alla Pugachova awarded Karol a special prize, recognizing her as a singer who stands out from the rest.

What Karol does not advertise in her numerous interviews, however, is that the start of her singing career actually traces back to Jewish and Israeli festivals – both in Ukraine and abroad – where she, then a teenager, regularly took first prizes.

“For four years, I had also performed with the dancing ensemble at the Kyiv branch of the Jewish agency Sohnut, and my repertoire included songs in Hebrew and Yiddish,” said Karol casually when specifically asked about her Jewish connections. In 2000, she added, she traveled with the ensemble to the United States, where young Ukrainian artists were fundraising money for Sohnut’s needs in Ukraine.

But now Karol prefers not to accent her Jewish background, and when producers a year ago suggested that she takes a stage name – she didn’t object. Now, she said, she is Tina Karol, even in her passport.

“It was part of the agreement with the producers, but, to be honest, I am glad I changed my name: I felt like my name hindered me in my life,” said Karol-Liberman, who confessed she often felt discriminated against in school because of her Jewish last name.

These days Karol has been rehearsing for Eurovision, and feeling optimistic.

“My song is a non-sophisticated one about love,” said Karol, who will sing in English.

“The song and my whole performance have to be such that the millions of voters from different European countries understand and like them,” she explained.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Gov't Pay Raised Ahead Of Elections

KIEV, Ukraine -- In what looks like a populist move to win votes, Ukraine’s government raised salaries for many state employees by about 30 percent on March 9, three weeks before the heated March 26 parliamentary elections.


The resolution, signed on March 9, goes into effect retroactively, starting Jan. 1 of this year. It affects hundreds of thousands of state employees: advisors and low-level staff at the Presidential Secretariat, Cabinet employees, officials at regional and district administrations, and staff at prosecutors offices and the tax administration.

Few would disagree that cash-strapped state employees deserve salary hikes. Their current salaries are often as low as $150-300 per month.

Appearing on Ukrainian television channel 1+1 late on March 21, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov said that the salary hikes are part of a strategy to reduce corruption within the echelons of Ukraine's government.

"This is one of the elements in fighting corruption," he said, referring to larger salaries as a method of removing the motivation behind the taking of bribes and kickbacks within the halls of government.

Now, the salaries of senior-level officials at the Presidential Secretariat stand at almost Hr 2,400 ($475). A deputy chief of staff at the Kyiv City Administration will be getting just under Hr 1,800 ($350), far below the income of many Kyiv residents. In comparison, computer programmers and bartenders at popular Kyiv venues can earn monthly incomes in the $300 range. However, they often do not declare their income in full to tax authorities, if at all.

Questionable timing

While most agree that such pay raises are due, many are questioning the timing of the resolution, suggesting that the announcement was made weeks ahead of the parliamentary elections in order to win votes for the Our Ukraine bloc, loyal to President Viktor Yushchenko. Prime Minister Yekhanurov and many top officials in the government are members of the bloc.

A senior government official tried on March 17 to calm concerns that the raises were politically motivated. The salary hike was envisioned in this year’s budget, said Bohdan Butsa, chief of staff of the Cabinet.

Since taking office in January 2005, the Yushchenko administration has managed to boost budget revenues 64 percent by encouraging big businesses to pay more of their fair share of taxes.

But a senior governmental advisor who was contacted by the Post described the timing of the raise as “pure populism.” Salaries could have been increased earlier, he said.

Political analyst Volodymyr Polokhalo, a member of Yulia Tymoshenko’s Byut bloc, said the resolution was clearly postponed closer to the election to win support for Our Ukraine.

“Abuse of administrative resources has not died out,” he said, referring to widely reported abuse of office by Yushchenko’s predecessor, Leonid Kuchma.

The Our Ukraine-controlled government made a conscious decision regarding the timing of the raise, he added.

While the state employees affected account for less than 1 percent of the electorate, winning their votes is important, considering that Tymoshenko’s Byut bloc is in a dead heat battling Our Ukraine for similar sectors of the electorate. Each bloc has about 20 percent voter support. Viktor Yanukovych’s Regions of Ukraine bloc has about 30 percent voter support, according to recent polls.

Polokhalo compared the move to the much-criticized pension hikes adopted by Yanukovych just ahead of the fall 2004 presidential elections, when he was a presidential candidate serving as Prime Minister.

“It’s a standard method used in Ukraine to encourage loyalty within the state apparatus,” said political analyst Mykhailo Pohrebinsky. “It’s not much different from what was done under [former Ukrainian President Leonid] Kuchma.”

Source: Kyiv Post

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Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Introduction To Ukraine's Parliamentary Elections

PRAGUE, Czech Republic -- Ukrainians are heading to the polls on 26 March for what some believe will be the first truly representative elections in the country's history.


This optimism stems from the lack of heavy-handed presidential interference favoring select candidates, the emergence of relatively balanced media coverage, and recently audited voter lists.

The elections will be all-encompassing and held on a massive scale. In addition to selecting a new 450-seat parliament, voters will be choosing their local, municipal representatives. Mayoral races will be decided throughout Ukraine, as will the shape of oblast, district, village, and city councils.

In the parliamentary elections, 45 parties will by vying for seats, of which only six-to nice are believed to have a legitimate chance of passing the 3 percent threshold for parliamentary representation.

The Issues

Ukrainians will essentially be expressing their faith, or lack thereof, in the Western-leaning administration of President Viktor Yushchenko. The optimism that resulted from the Orange Revolution that swept Yushchenko into power during the contentious 2004-05 presidential elections has faded, along with the support for the Our Ukraine bloc he heads.

There are a number of reasons for this erosion, but none is greater than voters' disappointment with the state of the country's economy. Since Yushchenko came to office, Ukrainians have seen their real incomes rise, but GDP grown has fallen from 12 percent in 2004 to just 2.6 in 2005.

Meanwhile, gasoline and food prices have risen as the global price of metals -- on whose export Ukraine's economy largely depends -- have fallen steeply. To top it off, the country became embroiled in a bitter dispute with Russia after the latter cut off energy exports to Ukraine. Supplies resumed after Yushchenko's government agreed to a new deal, but his political opponents cried foul -- saying the deal was reached without parliament's consent and at too high a price. The uproar eventually led to the dismissal of the cabinet headed by the man who heads Our Ukraine's candidates list, Yuriy Yekhanurov.

Corruption is also a key issue. Yushchenko's former Orange Revolution partner -- Yuliya Tymoshenko, who now heads the rival Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc -- accuses Yushchenko's administration of being soft on corruption as officials of former President Leonid Kuchma's regime run free. At the same time the man he faced down in the presidential contest -- Viktor Yanukovych of the poll-leading Party of Regions -- claims that a war of political persecution is being waged under the guise of fighting corruption.

Main Contenders

Party of Regions: Yanukovych has reemerged in a big way after his initial victory over Yushchenko in the 2004 presidential election was thrown out due to allegations of massive fraud. He lost the subsequent repeat election held in early 2005, but his Party of Regions has recovered to the extent that it leads opinion polls going into the parliamentary elections.

The party is expected to take 30 percent or more of the vote, no doubt benefiting greatly from the demise of the Orange movement whose supporters are splitting their votes between Our Ukraine and the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc.

The Party of Regions has hired an American public-relations firm and is supported financially by Ukraine's richest man, Rynat Akhmetov, who is No. 7 on the party's list and is being named as a potential prime minister in the new parliament.

The Party of Regions opposes Ukrainian accession to NATO and appeals to the country's large Russian-speaking minority with calls to make Russian an official state language. The party finds vast support in industrial eastern Ukraine, which has been hardest hit by increased energy costs. Yanukovych promises a return to double digit GDP growth for Ukraine and states that a vote for him is a vote for jobs, business, and industry.

Notables on the party's list are Parliamentary Human Rights Ombudsman Nina Karpachova, parliamentary deputies Heorhiy Skudar, and Taras Chornovil.

Our Ukraine: Support for President Yushchenko's Our Ukraine has eroded as a result of corruption scandals, the gas dispute with Russia, and the perception that it has failed to deliver on the promises of the Orange Revolution. Add the competition with the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc for the same voters and the result is support of only about 10-20 percent in opinion polls, which could mean a third-place finish.

However, the party benefits from an easily identifiable Western-leaning platform that backs free market economics and European integration. While its support base is centered on western Ukraine, Our Ukraine enjoys considerable reach throughout the country.

The party list is topped by former Prime Minister Yekhanurov and also features National Security and Defense Council Secretary Anatoliy Kinakh and Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk.

Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc: Following their public feud and spit in the wake of her ouster as Prime Minister, Tymoshenko has escaped from the shadow of Orange Revolution partner Yushchenko.

The Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc she heads is waging a populist campaign promising a war on corruption, lower food prices, and improved social services. The result is support of 10 to 20 percent in opinion polls, which has led her to call for her reinstatement as prime minister should her party gain more seats than Our Ukraine.

Notables on the party's list are former security Service (SBU) chief Oleksandr Turchynov, former deputy prime minister Mykola Tomenko, parliamentary deputy Vasyl Onopenko, and television journalist Andriy Shevchenko.

What's New?

Election Law: Courtesy of a new election law: passed in October 2004, no single-mandate constituencies will be contested. Previously the 450 parliamentary seats were fill by a 50-50 mix of regional representative and party lists. In this election 45 parties and blocs will be vying for the parliament's 450 seats.

In addition, the new parliament members will elected to five-year terms, as opposed the previous four-years, and will not be able to quit the party or bloc on whose lists they ran.

Financing rules have been revised to allow parties and blocs to use only their own funds and those allocated from the state budget during the campaigning period, which was extended from 90 to 120 days.

Other changes include raising the threshold for parliamentary representation to 3 percent of the vote, and the stipulation that election results are to be released within five days of the polling day.

As an added bonus, voter lists are expected to be more accurate as a result of the auditing that took place while the new law was being developed.

New Parliamentary Powers: As a result of increased powers granted to parliament in late 2004, the president will no longer be allowed to nominate the prime minister and most of the cabinet ministers.

The president will now only be able to nominate the foreign minister, defense minister, prosecutor-general, and the head of the security service, and all of the nominees will be subject to parliamentary approval.

Parliament has also gained the right to dismiss any minister, including the prime minister. In addition, the prime minister will have to report to both the president and to the parliament, whereas previously that post only had to answer to the president.

The president balances the new parliamentary powers by being able to dissolve parliament if it cannot form a majority 30 days after the first session, or if it fails to form a cabinet within 60 days after the dismissal or resignation of the previous cabinet.

Source: Radio Free Europe

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Yushchenko Choosing Between Tymoshenko And Yanukovych?

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine will abstain from assessing the Belarusian presidential election until after the OSCE delivers its verdict, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said on March 20, one day after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka won the highly controversial poll.

Yulia Tymoshenko

Yushchenko was equally noncommittal when asked by journalists a week earlier whether a ruling coalition is possible between his Our Ukraine (NU) and the Party of Regions (PRU) of Viktor Yanukovych, who Yushchenko defeated in the Ukrainian presidential poll in 2004. Yushchenko said he would answer this question only after the March 26 parliamentary election.

Yushchenko probably has to be cautious in order not to rock the boat of Ukrainian politics ahead of the crucial poll. Under the constitutional amendments that came into effect this year, the formation of the next cabinet will be possible only with a more or less stable majority in parliament.

To all appearances, building such a coalition will require enormous efforts, as neither of the three favorites in the race -- the NU, the PRU, or the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc -- will be able to form a majority on its own, according to recent public opinion polls.

A majority will be possible only if at least two of the three big parties manage to set aside their differences and form a coalition. A "grand coalition" including all three forces would hardly be viable, given the enormous differences and bitter rivalries among the three. Tymoshenko has flatly denied the possibility of setting up such a coalition. Speaking on television on March 13, she said she would prefer going into opposition to a coalition like that.

A union between Tymoshenko and the PRU looks the least plausible of all. Such a possibility has not been seriously discussed in the Ukrainian media recently. Tymoshenko's fans are probably the most radical and romantic among the Orange Revolution supporters. This electorate would not understand and would not forgive Tymoshenko for entering a political union with the party that has been the most outspoken enemy of the revolution.

The possibility of a union between the NU and the PRU seems more plausible. Pro-Tymoshenko media have been rife with speculation about this union, branding it a "betrayal of the Orange Revolution ideals," especially after Yushchenko's recent noncommittal statements.

Roman Zvarych, the deputy head of Our Ukraine's campaign headquarters, told a press conference on March 20 that any rumors about a coalition with the PRU should be viewed as campaign tricks by Our Ukraine's rivals. Zvarych ruled out the possibility of an alliance with the PRU.

The PRU, however, has been much less categorical. Yanukovych, speaking on a campaign trip in southern Kherson on March 15, said he would not rule out the possibility of a coalition with "certain people" from Our Ukraine. Speaking in Zaporizhya on the following day, Yanukovych noted that the PRU would not be able to form a majority on its own, so it would have to build an alliance of some kind.

And parliamentarian Stepan Havrysh of the "Ne Tak" bloc -- allies of the PRU -- spoke of a PRU-NU coalition as a done deal on March 20, saying that Mykola Azarov, who was first deputy prime minister in Yanukovych's cabinet in 2002-2004, should be the coalition's candidate for prime minister. What's more, Havrysh alleged that the PRU-NU coalition was "a U.S. idea."

The supporters of both Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko, however, would prefer a parliamentary majority formed by these two forces as a reincarnation of the Orange Revolution alliance.

Tymoshenko's media have been scathingly critical of personalities from Yushchenko's team, but she has all this time continued to pledge loyalty to Yushchenko, abstaining from criticizing him personally.

Tymoshenko, however, repeats her thesis that the forthcoming election will be more than a parliamentary poll, but an election of the next prime minister, saying that the choice would be between herself and Yanukovych.

Tymoshenko's personal ambitions may eventually turn out to be the main stumbling block. Yushchenko has made it clear on numerous occasions that he would prefer Yuriy Yekhanurov -- "a rational prime minister" -- to stay on after the election, rather than giving that post back to Tymoshenko, whom he holds responsible for the economic slowdown last year, when she was prime minister.

Yekhanurov, meanwhile, has indicated in an interview with NTN that he would not work in a cabinet together with Tymoshenko and accused her of opportunism. "I am a professional economist, and it is not easy for me to work with people who have no principles," he said.

Another outspoken critic of Tymoshenko, NU campaign manager Roman Bezsmertny, however, has been quite optimistic about a coalition with her. Interviewed by Tonis, he ruled out an alliance with the PRU, but said that an Orange Revolution coalition may be revived as soon as March 26, immediately after polls close. He said talks on such a coalition have been underway for some time and would continue on election day.

Source: Eurasia Daily Monitor

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Russia’s Putin Reclaiming Dominant Role In Former Soviet Union

MOSCOW, Russia -- The Kremlin may be reclaiming a dominant role in its former Soviet backyard. In Belarus, Moscow-allied strongman Alexander Lukashenko just won re-election by a landslide — at least by the official count.


And President Vladimir Putin’s allies could return to government in Sunday’s Ukrainian parliamentary election, just over a year after the Orange Revolution.

Such developments set back Western hopes of a democratic tidal wave in the former Soviet sphere and could further tarnish Putin’s democratic credentials as he tries to cast himself as a statesman capable of brokering deals with Iran and Hamas.

For Putin, however, asserting dominance over Belarus and Ukraine appears to be part of his strategy to re-establish Moscow as a global player during his year of the G-8 presidency.

“Russia wants to restore its superpower status, and that includes putting these countries back into its orbit,” said Yevgeny Volk, Moscow director of the conservative U.S think tank Heritage Foundation.

“It is seeking to reclaim its influence over the former Soviet Union, and remove that of the United States and European Union,” he added.

Russia was furious at what it saw as Western encroachment on its home turf after Ukraine’s November 2004 Orange Revolution — the mass protests over election fraud that brought reformist opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko to power over the Kremlin’s favored candidate, Viktor Yanukovych.

Months later, the impoverished Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan had its Tulip Revolution, becoming the third former Soviet state within 18 months to see opposition forces topple a Soviet-era leader. Georgia’s Rose Revolution started the process in 2003.

Today, however, Russia is once again on the rise as nervous authoritarian regimes from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan — where rights groups say government troops killed hundreds of civilians in a crackdown on protesters last year — build closer ties to Moscow, partly as a way to cow opposition forces.

Even in Ukraine, disillusionment at political infighting and the economic collapse that followed the Orange Revolution have brought about a political comeback for Yanukovych, whose rigged victory in the 2004 presidential election was annulled by the Supreme Court.

Enjoying strong support in the Russian-speaking east, his party is poised to win the most seats in the new parliament and earn the right to form the government, even if it will probably need to govern in an uneasy coalition with the party of the pro-Western Yushchenko.

“The West’s influence that triumphed in the color revolutions has clearly become a dead end for these nations,” said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst. “In Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, people live worse, not better than before.”

By contrast, in Belarus, whose authoritarian president is shunned by Western nations as Europe’s last dictator, cheap supplies of Russian gas provide a vital lifeline to the inefficient, state-dominated economy.

Analyst Alexei Malashenko of the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank said on Ekho Moskvy radio that while the Kremlin sometimes had tense relations with Belarus, its greatest interest lay in preserving the status quo in Minsk.

He also said that despite loud Western criticism of the Belarus election, there was no serious attempt to help pro-democratic forces, as happened in Ukraine.

“There was a strong fight for Ukraine, but no one fought for Belarus,” Malashenko said.

Analysts agree that Russia’s trump card in the region is its immense energy resources. They ensure that despite pro-Western inclinations, both Georgia and Ukraine remain dangerously dependent on their larger neighbor.

A pipeline explosion that cut off Russian supplies to Georgia this winter left millions shivering in their homes — provoking accusations from the tiny U.S.-allied Caucasus mountain state that Russia was deliberately trying to bring it to its knees.

Ukraine meanwhile had to swallow a twofold increase in gas prices after a bitter New-Year dispute that saw Moscow turn off the gas taps.

“Russia is using strong economic levers. With the growth of oil and gas exports it has become much richer than it was in the 1990s and it is translating this economic might into political influence and power,” said Volk.

At the center of the Russian policy in the region is a determination to resist the West’s efforts to boost its influence at Russia’s expense, in what Moscow says is falsely portrayed as a bid to promote democracy.

Russia yesterday accused the United States of trying to enforce its vision of democracy on others, angrily rejecting President Bush’s criticism that the Kremlin has rolled back freedoms.

Source: MosNews

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A Soviet-Style Election Ends In Belarus, Protests Begin

MINSK, Belarus -- Belarus has just completed a divisive and fundamentally flawed election campaign.

Belarussian presidential candidate Alexander Milinkevich (L) talks to his supporters in a tent camp in the center of Minsk. Belarussian opposition protestors were buoyant after spending another freezing night on the main square of Minsk, yet their protest showed no sign of shaking authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko.

Though the 2006 presidential election has been notable for the public prominence of two opposition candidates, Alexander Milinkevich and Alexander Kazulin, it has ended predictably with the chair of the Electoral Commission announcing yet another sweeping victory for the incumbent, Alexander Lukashenka.

On the other hand, the official results have failed manifestly to convince the European Union, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Belarus's western neighbors, and the United States that the process was free and fair. Moreover, the Belarusian elite, especially in Minsk, has become politicized and is no longer swayed by the fear factor as in the past.

The official results are as follows. Lukashenka received 5.46 million votes, or 82.6% of the total; Milinkevich almost 400,000 or 6.0%; Syarhey Haidukevich, leader of the Liberal-Democratic Party, 250,000, or 3.5%; and Kazulin, 154,000, or 2.3%. The official turnout was 92.6%. The chair of the CEC, Lidziya Yarmoshyna, even saw fit to editorialize, commenting that Kazulin's low vote was a result of his rowdy campaign, a reflection perhaps of the arbitrary nature of the final tally.

Though accurate polling was almost impossible during the campaign, due to the oppressive conditions imposed by the government, available surveys suggest that Lukashenka's standing was somewhere between 50% and 60%. However, some 30% of the electorate voted at advance polls, meaning that often there were few people actually at polling stations on March 19. Lukashenka's results may have been raised upward by some 22-25%. In turn the combined total of 11.8% for the three other candidates appears very low.

By election day, the few remaining media and Internet outlets for the two opposition candidates had been curtailed. Narodnaya volya ceased printing after its distribution centers had been persuaded to stop production. Websites, such as those of Charter-97 and Zubr, shut down. The news agency Belapan was also affected. Thus not a single source of impartial reporting remained in the country on March 19.

The Lukashenka regime kept up a barrage of propaganda against the opposition candidates, while arresting hundreds of their campaign team, including every major official in both camps other than the candidates themselves. Lukashenka responded to an opposition call for a public demonstration on Monday, March 20, in October Square by declaring that he would wring the necks of his opponents as he would a chicken. Throughout the campaign he deployed the KGB and the Special Forces to intimidate his opponents.

Whereas the two opposition candidates each had two radio and TV addresses of less than 30 minutes, the president, who had opted not to campaign, appeared constantly on TV and also made two lengthy addresses: the first at the so-called All-Belarusian Congress, which was attended by carefully screened delegates, and a second on Belarusian Television on March 18. His themes were repetitive: current economic stability contrasted with potential chaos under candidates who represented foreign interests, specifically of countries hostile to Belarus.

Western agencies have universally condemned the campaign. A press release from the OSCE, which had over 500 international observers from 38 countries representing its two agencies, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights and the Parliamentary Assembly, stated that the election failed to meet OSCE commitments. According to Ambassador Geert-Hinrich Ahrens, head of the long-term observation mission, "A positive assessment of this election was impossible." The EU is debating further sanctions on Belarus.

As for the opposition, it performed creditably within the highly restricted environment. Over 15,000 people came into the streets on the evening of March 19 in the largest public demonstration since Soviet times. The actual figure may have been considerably higher. The protests continued on the evening of the 20th.

The essential factor from the perspective of the united opposition is the maintenance of unity in the post-election period. Such a goal may induce Kazulin to form a new alliance with Milinkevich. The two were working in virtual unison by the end of the campaign; and now face a vindictive government anxious to punish the opposition candidates.

It is a truism that Belarus is different; that national consciousness (including the use of the native language) lags well behind that of its neighbors, and that the outlook of its president is not alien to large sectors of the population.

Milinkevich's appeal has been to the intelligentsia, the urban elite, and above all to young activists who do not see a future for their country within a post-Soviet and authoritarian regime, ostensibly under the permanent presidency of a quasi-dictator with little to offer other than platitudes about stability, close partnership with Russia, and a system of internal terror.

The quest for the hearts and minds of the people -- a frequently used phrase of Milinkevich -- has just begun. But it cannot be measured adequately from the perspective of an election so closely controlled by the government, with a leader who indulged in and used the threat of violence and oppression to get his way.

This was a disgraceful election in many aspects, but one that revealed starkly and accurately the true nature of the Lukashenka regime. The reported results are meaningless.

Source: Eurasia Daily Monitor

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Orange Past Peels Away As Ukraine Poll Looks Likely To Avoid Dramas

KIEV, Ukraine -- As Ukrainians gear up for parliamentary elections on Sunday, the controversy over last weekend's election in their northern neighbour Belarus has given rise to feelings of nostalgia.

Viktor Yushchenko during Orange Revolution

Scenes of opposition demonstrators in Minsk have evoked memories of the "Orange Revolution" of late 2004 when thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets in protest against alleged vote-tampering by their own authoritarian president and succeeded in overturning what many judged to be a rigged contest.

While this Sunday's election may not be as dramatic, the outcome is arguably just as decisive in terms of the future direction of the biggest country in eastern Europe after Russia. The contest could decide whether Ukraine accelerates its efforts to integrate further with the rest of Europe or moves back to a closer relationship with Russia.

Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-west president brought to power in the Orange Revolution, faces the uncomfortable prospect of seeing his rival Viktor Yanukovich, the pro-Russian leader who lost out in the re-run of the 2004 presidential race, emerging victorious in Sunday's vote. Mr Yanukovich's Regions party leads in the opinion polls with about 30 per cent support, ahead of the president's Our Ukraine party.

The president has made clear he will respect Sunday's result. With the choice of the future prime minister to be decided by the new parliament, speculation is now focused on the possible coalition. The two most talked-about options are a new coalition between Mr Yushchenko and his populist former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, or a so-called "grand coalition" between Mr Yushchenko and Mr Yanukovich.

The campaigning is lively, with more than a dozen parties spending heavily on national advertising campaigns and many more focusing on local contests. The opposition is campaigning hard on the theme of economic hardship, an issue underscored earlier this year by Russia's decision to cut gas supplies to Ukraine, while the government is trying to keep alive the spirit of the Orange Revolution.

And yet there is none of the intensity of 2004. As Ukrainians watch the much smaller but still similar uprising in Belarus, many worry the spirit of the Orange Revolution, which saw thousands of people occupy central Kiev in protest at the first, contested vote won by Mr Yanukovich, has faded.

Olena Kornichenko, a student who spent yesterday manning a Yushchenko campaign tent in central Kiev, said: "When we stood on the square [in central Kiev] it was such a spiritual moment. I just hope when people watch the news in Belarus they remember and, despite all the disappointment with Yushchenko, they don't betray the square."

Every evening Ukrainian television channels start with coverage of the local campaign, replete with coloured balloons and other attention-grabbing gimmicks. Then the tone turns somber as the correspondent from Minsk comes on, reporting by telephone because live video is not permitted.

Despite Belarus's hardline tactics, Mr Yanukovich's Regions party and other pro-Russian groups are strongly promoting closer ties to the country through the Russia-led Common Economic Area, which also includes Kazakhstan.

The economic union was announced in 2004 but has not been implemented, partly because Mr Yushchenko will not commit to the level of integration sought by other members.

Mr Yanukovich's support for the union has a strong economic logic: Belarus and Russia are Ukraine's fastest-growing export markets, mainly because of Russia's rising income from oil and gas and the preferential oil and gas prices Belarus enjoys.

By comparison, Ukraine's economy is groaning under the weight of increased prices for Russian gas and from repeated increases in pensions, social benefits and public salaries. Gross domestic product growth in January-February was just 1.5 per cent, one of the lowest rates in eastern Europe.

Some western diplomats argue a Yushchenko-Yanukovich coalition would be the best result for the economy, since it might allow Mr Yushchenko to improve ties with Russia and avoid further gas price increases. But Mr Yushchenko would be hard pressed to explain the move to his supporters.

Ms Kornichenko said she and her friends would take to the streets against any Yushchenko-Yanukovich government. "If Yushchenko did that it would ruin him politically," she said.

Source: Financial Times

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Tuesday, March 21, 2006

White House Calls For New Belarus Vote

MINSK, Belarus -- Independent observers said Monday the re-election of iron-fisted President Alexander Lukashenko was "a farce" because his opponents were systematically intimidated and detained.

A supporter of opposition presidential candidate Alexander Milinkevich flashes a victory sign during a protest in central Minsk. Hundreds of protesters defied Belarussian President Lukashenko for a third day on Tuesday, massing in the capital to protest over his re-election, denounced as flawed by Washington and independent observers.

The United States called for new elections in Belarus, with the White House and European Union also hinting at sanctions against Lukashenko's authoritarian government.

"The United States does not accept the results of the election," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said.

However, Russia hailed the election held by its ally and said the result that gave Lukashenko a third term "must be viewed with respect."

Official results showed Lukashenko with 82.6 percent of the vote, Central Election Commission chief Lidiya Yermoshina said. Main opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich received 6 percent, she said, citing a complete preliminary ballot count.

Underlying the election is a struggle for regional influence between Russia and the West, which is seen by Lukashenko's government and its backers in Moscow as a major culprit in the political upheaval in former Soviet republics of Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan.

About 10,000 people demonstrators turned out at a peaceful anti-government protest Sunday night in Minsk's Oktyabrskaya Square, signaling a bid to gather growing street rallies like those that brought opposition leaders to power in neighboring Ukraine.

Milinkevich and the other opposition candidate, Alexander Kozulin, called for larger crowds to turn out Monday evening. Busloads of riot police in helmets and camoufalge uniforms streamed into the capital, went into neighborhood courtyards, and prevented pedestrians from walking toward the central square.

At a boastful and belligerent nationally televised news conference where he repeatedly criticized the United States, Lukashenko repeated allegations that the opposition was backed by Western forces plotting to bring him down.

"The revolution that was talked about so much ... has failed," he said, adding that Belarusians had resisted "colossal pressure from outside" and "showed who's the boss."

"You have seen our opposition, and if you are reasonable people you have been convinced that it's worthless," said the 51-year-old leader who has ruled since 1994.

Monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Council of Europe said the election was neither free nor fair.

"The March 19 presidential election did not meet the required international standards for free and fair elections," said Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Fla., who chairs the OSCE parliamentary assembly, the world's largest regional security organization.

The mission said "arbitrary use of state power and widespread detentions showed a disregard for the basic rights of freedom of assembly, association and expression, and raise doubts regarding the authorities' willingness to tolerate political competition."

The European Union said the elections were marred by intimidation, and the 25-nation bloc likely will impose financial and diplomatic sanctions on Belarus' top political leaders. McClellan also said penalties such as travel restrictions "are things we will look at."

Austrian Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik, whose country holds the EU's rotating presidency, said the opposition "was systematically intimidated" during the campaign.

She said preparations for the election "were conducted in a climate of intimidation, a climate of hindering" Lukashenko opponents.

"In a country in which freedom of expression and association are so thoroughly and aggressively suppressed, a vote is not an exercise in democracy, it is a farce," said Terry Davis, president of the Council of Europe, the continent's premier human rights organization.

EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said "some action is now very likely," including a visa travel ban on top government leaders in Minsk. EU foreign ministers also are considering expanding a freeze on the assets of top Belarus officials, Ferrero-Waldner said.

Milinkevich called the official vote tally for Lukashenko "monstrously inflated" and denounced the leader as an "illegal, illegitimate president."

"In Belarus, we did not have an election but an unconstitutional seizure of power," he said, repeating his demand for a revote "in which he law of the country is followed."

The Soviet past is strongly palpable in Belarus. The government makes five-year plans, the main state newspaper has "Soviet" in its title and the state security service is still officially called the KGB. Russia, which has an agreement with Belarus envisaging close political, economic and military ties, has staunchly backed Lukashenko, who has become a pariah in the West for his relentless crackdown on opposition and independent media.

Western countries have forged close ties with the opposition and made no secret of their contempt for the ruler of what Washington calls an outpost of tyranny in Europe. The United States condemned the election campaign as "seriously flawed and tainted."

After polls closed Sunday, thousands of opposition supporters jammed Oktyabrskaya Square, shouting, "Freedom!" and "Long live Belarus!" in scenes reminiscent of protests that brought opposition leaders to power in other former republics.

Demonstrators waved a national flag that Lukashenko scrapped in favor of a Soviet-style replacement, as well as European Union flags.

People blew horns and chanted "Mi-lin-ke-vich!" - echoing the much larger crowds on Kiev's Independence Square in Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution, which turned the nation toward the West.

Lukashenko had vowed to prevent mass rallies. The use or threat of force neutralized opposition efforts to protest vote results in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan last year, and a bloody government crackdown in Uzbekistan left hundreds dead.

The authorities made no move to disperse Sunday's protesters, but busloads of riot police idling on a nearby street were a reminder of the government's threats of a decisive response.

Lukashenko said the protest leaders were in the pay of Western ambassadors and said there was no crackdown because the opposition is weak.

"Who was there to fight with? Nobody, understand? That's why we gave them the opportunity to show themselves, even though it was illegal," he said.

The crowd was the biggest the opposition had mustered in years, reaching at least 10,000, according to reporters' estimates. After about three hours, a smaller group marched to nearby Victory Square, some laying carnations at a monument before dispersing around midnight.

But Milinkevich's campaign chief, Sergei Kalyakin, said Sunday's protest was not big enough, and that crowds 10 times larger were needed to force the authorities "to hear the voice of the people."

While Lukashenko is a dictator to his opponents and foreign critics, many Belarusians see the former collective farm manager as having brought stability after the uncertainty that followed the 1991 Soviet collapse. While the landlocked nation, about as big and flat as Kansas, is far from prosperous, the economy is growing and salaries are rising.

Critics say the economic successes are unsustainable, based largely on cheap Russian energy and heavy-handed state intervention reminiscent of the communist era.

Source: AP

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108 Opposition Supporters Detained In Belarus

MINSK, Ukraine -- An opposition candidate in Sunday's presidential elections in Belarus said Tuesday that 108 opposition supporters had been arrested in the capital last night.

Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko preceded over what the German press is calling an "election farce."

Alexander Milinkevich said his central campaign headquarters had been destroyed, but vowed that he would stay in Minsk's central square, where opposition supporters have been gathered, until the end.

Milinkevich said he was convinced police would not use force against demonstrators and added that foreign ambassadors were expected to arrive on site soon. About 1,000 people are currently gathered on the square.

"Students decided to appear on the square themselves, and I supported them," he said.

The supporters of Milinkevich, who garnered only 6% of the vote, are calling for a re-run of Sunday's elections, which resulted in the re-election of incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko for a third five-year term with just over 82% of the vote amidst claims of election rigging.

Source: RIA Novosti

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U.S. Refuses To Accept Belarus Election Result

WASHINGTON, DC -- The United States rejects the results of the Belarus election and believes the campaign that re-elected President Alexander Lukashenko was conducted in a “climate of fear,” the White House quoted by Reuters said on Monday.

Supporters of Belarus’ opposition rally on a main square in central Minsk

“We support the call for a new election,” said White House spokesman Scott McClellan.

The United States had complained bitterly about events in Belarus ahead of the election.

McClellan warned authorities in Belarus against “threatening or detaining those exercising their political rights in the coming days and beyond,” a reference to protests that have been reported there.

“The United States does not accept the results of the election. The election campaign was conducted in a climate of fear. It included arrests and beatings and fraud,” McClellan said.

Washington was ready to cooperate with the European Union to take action against those responsible for election fraud and human rights abuses in Belarus, he told reporters.

Both the United States and the EU have accused Lukashenko of abandoning democratic principles and engaging in human rights abuses. They threatened sanctions if the election was found to be fraudulent.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack noted that the U.S. support for opposition calls for a new election was rhetorical. Washington had not decided on any concrete ways that it might help the opposition force a new vote, he said.

Washington was also ready to impose further limited sanctions against Belarus, such as expanding a list of senior officials banned from visiting the United States, McCormack said.

A U.S. official, who requested anonymity, acknowledged the United States had little sway over Lukashenko.

“The truth is we have little leverage over him, because we have limited economic or diplomatic ties — and for that matter nor does Europe,” the official said. “So, it’s really up to the Russians, who have close integration with Belarus. But they are not exactly looking like they are ready to smack Lukashenko upside the head.”

Source: MosNews

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Russian Language Doesn’t Meet Ukrainian Interests

DONETSK, Ukraine -- Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko thinks that the Russian language does not meet the interests of Ukraine.


The March 6 decision of the Kharkov city council, which gave the regional status to the Russian language, “does not meet the Ukrainian interests either,” he told a Friday press conference in Kharkov.

The state language policy of Ukraine has never been targeted for the suppression of another language, Yushchenko said. He also said that he had never received language complaints from citizens.

The Kharkov city council should have been more careful about the language issue, Yushchenko said. “I do not welcome such steps, although it is up to court to give a legal assessment,” he noted.

More than a half of Ukrainian citizens want the Russian and Ukrainian languages to be equal.

The overwhelming majority of respondents in a Ukrainian SMS referendum voted for the Russian language.

Nearly 315,000 people took part in the two-month poll, said action organizers and members of the Party of Regions youth organization. A total of 81.55% voted for the state status of the Russian language, and 18.45% said the opposite.

The action organizers said that the state status of the Russian language is truly a concern of Ukrainian citizens no matter what certain political forces say.

The organizers thanked everyone for taking part in the referendum and said that they expect it to become an important step towards the state status of Russian in Ukraine and help the legalization of polls held through mobile phones.

Source: ITAR-Tass

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Monday, March 20, 2006

Belarusian Election A 'Farce,' Observers Say

MINSK, Belarus -- Balloting that saw Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko re-elected in a landslide victory Sunday did not meet international standards of a free and fair vote, European observers said Monday.

Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko attends a news conference in Minsk. Lukashenko said triumphantly on Monday his re-election showed efforts to stage a pro-West revolt in Belarus had failed, but independent observers criticised the poll as neither free nor fair.

The Council of Europe called the election a "farce" and the European Union said it was likely to impose financial and diplomatic sanctions in response.

Monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe also denounced the vote, citing widespread detentions and intimidation.

Neighbouring Russia, however, said the results "must be viewed with respect."

Official figures released Sunday show Lukashenko received 82.6 per cent of the vote, compared to six per cent for his nearest challenger, Alexander Milinkevich.

Milinkevich described the results as "monstrously inflated," and called on protesters to gather in Minsk on Monday evening.

On Sunday, he told 10,000 supporters gathered in Minsk's Oktyabrskaya Square that "we did not have an election but an unconstitutional seizure of power."

The protesters raised their fists, waving the red-and-white Belarusian flag that had been abolished by Lukashenko.

"We demand new, honest elections," Milinkevich told the crowd. "This was a complete farce."

Milinkevich called on his supporters to return to the square Monday evening to continue their protest.

"Tomorrow we will show the world our might," said Alexander Kozulin, another opposition candidate.

The reaction raises the possibility that the Belarus government could be destabilized in the same manner as in two other former Soviet states, Ukraine and Georgia.

In those countries, sustained protests over controversial election results eventually brought opposition leaders to power.

Lukashenko, who has led the country since 1994, had been widely expected to win in the election. He enjoys support among voters in rural farm areas, who fear economic hardship if the Soviet-style economy is changed.

However, Lukashenko also faced sharp criticism from abroad after he had banned election-day meetings and threatened to crush street demonstrations and treat protesters like terrorists.

The United States and European Union warned that new sanctions could be imposed against Belarus if the election was considered unfair.

Source: AP

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Kiev's Economic Performance On Trial

KIEV, Ukraine -- For the leaders of Ukraine's Orange Revolution, who inherited a $6 billion budget hole and an impoverished population impatient to see corruption eradicated, getting a handle on the economy was never going to be simple.

Kiev construction

And 15 months later, with parliamentary elections looming, Ukrainian voters have shifted their focus from regime change to how the government has handled the economy. Their votes March 26 will help determine whether the changes needed to modernize the economy and open it further to the West are pushed through or founder amid political infighting.

The popular mood isn't encouraging for proponents of reform.

Alexander Ivanov, a 43-year-old electrician, says salaries have failed to keep pace with rising prices for daily items. "Workers now buy their sausage for 30 hryvna ($6) and wages haven't gone up," he said. "I don't think people in politics pay any attention to the ordinary people."

Still, investors are bullish. Construction cranes dot Kiev's skyline and BMWs speed down its elegant boulevards, while a mix of languages can be heard in restaurants packed with foreign executives who are rushing to cut deals in a huge market largely free of competition.

"The government doesn't get involved in the day-to-day affairs of ordinary businessmen," said Alex Frishberg, a veteran Kiev-based lawyer, adding that politicians were too busy with "constant infighting."

"What you have in Kiev is the purest form of capitalism," he said.

The economy has taken plenty of hits. Erratic policies under firebrand former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in the early months of the Orange government _ compounded by a 30 percent decline in late 2004 in international prices for steel, Ukraine's key export _ squashed economic growth from 12.1 percent in 2004 to just 2.6 percent in 2005.

President Viktor Yushchenko's opponents have hammered a January gas deal with Russia, which saw the price of gas imports nearly double to $95 per 1,000 cubic meters, as potentially lethal for Ukraine's gas-intensive and inefficient industries.

The agreement came after Moscow demanded Kiev pay nearly five times more for its gas and temporarily halted supplies, also causing interruptions in European deliveries. Observers called Moscow's stance punishment for Yushchenko's pledges to bring Ukraine closer to Europe and out of Russia's orbit.

And corruption remains entrenched. If a clique of oligarchs wielded power under former President Leonid Kuchma, analysts and businessmen say the Orange Revolution has simply expanded the pool of tycoons with ties to power.

On the other hand, foreign direct investment came in at a record $7.9 billion (euro6.6 billion) in 2005 _ nearly as much as had entered the country since its independence in 1991. That jump came almost solely through the reprivatization of the Kryvorizhstal steel plant, which Mittal Steel Co., bought last fall for a jaw-dropping $4.8 billion.

The auction was a huge vote of business confidence for Yushchenko, who had promised during his campaign to smash the nepotistic excesses of the old regime. The plant, which accounts for 20 percent of Ukraine's metals output, had been sold to Kuchma's billionaire son-in-law in 2004 for a fifth of what Mittal paid.

Then came a series of acquisitions of Ukraine's top banks. Within the last six months, Austria's Raiffaisen bought a controlling stake in Aval Bank for over $1 billion, France's BNP Paribas snapped up 51 percent of Ukrsibbank for about $500 million and Italy's Banca Intesa acquired more than 85 percent of Ukrsotsbank for just over $1 billion.

Further support came from the European Union _ which Yushchenko has pledged to join _ when it granted Ukraine market economy status, began talks on easier visa rules and agreed to sign a free trade deal after Kiev joins the World Trade Organization. Last week, Ukraine and the United States agreed on a deal on Ukraine's accession to the WTO.

That has gone a long way to calm the nerves of local and foreign investors after the roller-coaster stewardship of Tymoshenko, who was fired and replaced in September by Yuriy Yekhanurov, who is seen as more business-friendly.

As part of an anti-corruption drive under Tymoshenko, foreign investors were left smarting after the sudden termination of the tax havens provided by free economic zones. Her bombshell pledge to review some 3,000 questionable privatizations shook faith in property rights and contributed to a dramatic drop in domestic investment, while her decision to cap gasoline prices ahead of the spring sowing season prompted production cuts at Ukraine's Russian-controlled refineries _ sending prices soaring.

But there were successes. The anti-corruption campaign saw tax revenues rise by about 70 percent _ plastering over the 32 billion hryvna ($6.4 billion) budget deficit opened by the populist spending policies of former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych before the presidential election.

Still, many Ukrainians have been disillusioned with Yushchenko's promises of prosperity through closer ties to the EU, and analysts predict a strong showing by Yanukovych's pro-Moscow Party of the Regions bloc.

There are high expectations of a parliamentary majority formed between Yushchenko and his rival Yanukovych, who is bankrolled by powerful business magnate Rinat Akhmetov, a former Kryvorizhstal shareholder who today is worth $1.7 billion according to Forbes magazine. Considered the real force behind Yanukovych, Akhmetov is running for parliament and is rumored to have his eye on the prime minister's office.

While some analysts have said that union could pull Ukraine further back into Russia's orbit, others see Akhmetov as a realist whose metals businesses stand to benefit from the removal of antidumping restrictions, which WTO membership would eventually lead to.

Some suggest he would also be averse to Russian companies encroaching on his business activities, which could be a consequence of Kiev's membership in a planned "common economic space" between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Kamen Zahariev, country director for the European bank for Reconstruction and Development, noted that Ukraine has had 11 prime ministers in the past 15 years and said that above all, political stability would be key to Ukraine's economic progress.

"Really, our hope is for a clear result and for a majority to be formed that would allow a government to stay in place for a year or 18 months," Zahariev said.

Source: AP

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Ukrainian Police Searches For Forged Voting Ballots

MOSCOW, Russia -- The parliamentary election in Ukraine is set for the next week, and authorities have already stepped up efforts against violations. President Viktor Yushchenko said on Saturday over 50 criminal cases involving violations of the election law were opened.

Yaroslav Davydovich, the head of the Ukrainian Central Election Commission (foreground), and Vladimir Litvin, the chairman of the Supreme Rada (background)

The Ukrainian police reported that forged ballots may appear at polling stations. Remuneration has been promised to those who will help find forgers.

As the voting day is approaching, the Ukrainian authorities stepped up efforts to prevent violations at the election. Ukrainian President Yushchenko said in a Saturday weekly address to the nation that dozens of criminal cases had been opened on violations of the election law. Most of them are to probe in attacks on canvassers in Donbass and Western Ukraine.

Yaroslav Davydovich, the head of the Ukrainian Central Election Commission, is convinced, however, that the campaign “goes on almost perfectly”. “During the 2004 presidential election campaign, we received scores of complaints on violations and use of authority resource almost every day.

In contrast, we have not received a single one today, for example.” The 2006 election is going to be the first fair voting in Ukraine, Mr. Davydovich believes.

Nonprofit organizations are not that upbeat. Serious problems may arise from the fact that elections of different levels are held on the one day, according to the Committee of Voters of Ukraine.

Independent experts fear that there can be confusion at polling stations as mayors, deputies of the Supreme Rada and local legislators are to be elected on the one day.

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry also anticipates violations. Minister Yury Lutsenko said that they expect forged ballots to be issued on the election day.

The Interior Minister promised a gratuity for those who will help find forged ballots and their producers. $60,000 has been allocated to these ends.

Source: Kommersant

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Lukashenko Re-Elected Belarus President

MINSK, Belarus -- Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko has been re-elected with 82.6 percent of all votes, Interfax news agency quoted the head of the Central Elections Commission as saying on Monday.

Opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich, right, and Alexander Kozulin greet their supporters on a main square in central Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, March 19, 2006.

"Alexander Lukashenko has been elected for a third term in office," Interfax quoted Commission head Lidiya Yermoshina as saying. "Following the procession of 100 percent of the ballots, Lukashenko collected 82.6 percent of the votes."

The full results were announced just hours after some 10,000 people rallied in heavy snow in the central October Square of the capital when polls closed on Sunday, a protest unmatched in recent years. Lukashenko had pledged to "wring the necks" of anyone threatening public order, but police took no action.

The opposition rejected the returns as blatant fraud and said campaigning was marred by the arrests of dozens of opposition activists and mass intimidation.

Protesters stood in bitter winds waving flags and placards reading: "We believe! We can do it! We shall win!"

Milinkevich urged his supporters to regroup again on Monday night.

"We have already achieved a colossal victory. People have overcome their fear. Our objective is new and fair elections," he said at the start of the rally.

His calls were reminiscent of events in the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine, where opposition activists mounted campaigns of mass protest against election results they said were fraudulent. In both countries, leaders were ultimately forced from power and replaced by pro-Western opponents.

KREMLIN CONCERN

Those events clearly disturbed Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been at pains to restore as much as he can of Moscow's influence in former Soviet republics. While having little personal affection for the outspoken Lukashenko, he may see his success in Belarus as serving Kremlin interests.

Lukashenko can draw on strong domestic support especially in rural areas where many see his 12-year rule as having spared them the turmoil, hardship and "wild" capitalism seen in many ex-Soviet republics.

But in the West, Belarus is seen widely as a last bastion of Soviet-style government and economic organization. He has been described by Washington as Europe's last true dictator.
The Belarus election is likely to top the agenda of a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday.

The EU has vowed to punish any vote-rigging with sanctions such as visa bans targeting those officials deemed responsible. If evidence points to vote-rigging, EU ministers could agree on a list Belarussian officials to face visa bans in coming weeks.

The bloc is reluctant to impose harsher measures such as economic sanctions for fear they would hit the Belarussian people rather than Lukashenko's government.

Source: Reuters

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Ukraine's Yushchenko Facing Election Rebuff

KIEV, Ukraine -- Voters look set to deal President Viktor Yushchenko a rebuff in a parliamentary election next Sunday that could tilt their divided country back toward Russia just 16 months after a revolution that appeared to move Ukraine closer to the West.

Viktor Yushchenko

It's a bitter twist for Yushchenko, whose Orange Revolution ushered in the very reforms that are making this contest the most democratic in the former Soviet republic's history.

Now he must contend with polls predicting the winner will be his arch-foe, ex-Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the man whose fraud-marred run for the presidency in 2004 triggered the revolution that along with similar upheavals in the former Soviet states of Georgia and Kyrgyzstan has encouraged democratic restiveness in neighboring Belarus.

Yushchenko's presidency is not at stake in this election, but widespread disappointment with the peaceful revolution's unfulfilled promises of prosperity and an end to corruption has left Yushchenko's camp struggling even to win second place.

The resurgence of Yanukovych, whose political career seemed buried by the Orange Revolution, could reshape the pro-Western politics of this nation of 47 million people stretching between the European Union and Russia.

Most analysts predict Yushchenko will be pragmatic and reach out to Yanukovych to form a coalition, since neither of their parties will get enough votes to form a parliamentary majority.

Proponents of a coalition say it could help bridge Ukraine's deep regional divisions, absorb the 44 percent of voters who didn't support the revolution, and improve Kiev's rocky ties with Moscow.

Critics say it could slow Ukraine's West-ward turn and return power to some officials that the Orange Revolution leaders had vowed to jail.

"If this coalition is formed, what was the point of the revolution?" said former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose acrimonious split with the president last fall shattered the Orange Revolution team.

The charismatic Tymoshenko, whose fiery speeches helped spur the protesters in November 2004, wants the prime minister's job back and has focused her campaign on disillusioned revolution supporters who, analysts say, could give her party a strong showing.

Yushchenko's bloc has countered by spending much of the campaign blaming Tymoshenko for the plunge in annual economic growth from 12 percent to 2 percent, the rise in prices of staples such as meat and sugar, and last year's privatization debacle that scared off foreign investors.

Both insist in public that they want to reunite, but when asked recently to name one good thing Tymoshenko did in office, Yushchenko's face hardened. Seconds ticked by. "I'm composing my emotions so I can restrain them," he said finally, and didn't name one thing.

Publication of polls in the week before an election is barred, and earlier surveys varied dramatically. But most put Yanukovych's bloc in the lead with around 30 percent, followed by Yushchenko's and Tymoshenko's parties running neck-and-neck at 15 percent to 22 percent each.

That could mean Yushchenko having to serve out the 3 1/2 years left in his term with a government working against him, Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov warned voters.

The disarray dismays voters such as Olha Prikhodko, 60, whose home in western Ukraine is adorned with photos of Yushchenko and his five children, and of Tymoshenko, who braids her blonde hair in peasant style.

"All I want is for Yulia (Tymoshenko) and Viktor Andriyovych (Yushchenko) to make peace and reunite," Prikhodko said.

With that peace looking increasingly unlikely, analysts are debating the implications of Yanukovych's possible return.

He draws his support almost exclusively from Ukraine's industrial, Russian-speaking east, and wants Russian, which was dumped as the state language after the country became independent in 1991, to be restored to official status alongside Ukrainian.

He says he supports Ukraine joining the rich and prosperous European Union, but views membership in a trade zone with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan as an immediate priority.

Yanukovych's ally, businessman Alex Kiselev, expects Yanukovych to pursue a policy more balanced between Russia and the West, remarking: "You never bet your whole hand on one horse."

But Yushchenko would retain significant powers to shape policy. The president gets to appoint the foreign and defense ministers, and the current foreign minister, Borys Tarasiuk, a Ukrainian nationalist, is widely expected to stay in the job.

Yushchenko has told journalists he is sure foreign policy won't change, saying that "European-Atlantic integration is in harmony with our national interests."

Source: AP

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Opposition Denounces Belarus Election

MINSK, Belarus —- Thousands of protesters thronged the main square of the Belarusian capital on Sunday to denounce a presidential vote that appeared all but certain to give the iron-fisted incumbent a third term.


Supporters of the main opposition candidate in Belarus' presidential election Alexander Milinkevich shout during an opposition rally in Minsk. Belarus opposition presidential candidate Alexander Milinkevich demanded Sunday's election be annulled, calling an exit poll that shows President Alexander Lukashenko winning reelection a "lie."

The crowd hooted when a large video screen broadcast a live statement from the Central Election Commission chief, who said President Alexander Lukashenko had won more than 90 percent of the vote counted so far.

The protesters chanted "Long Live Belarus!" and the name of the main opposition candidate, Alexander Milinkevich. Some waved a national flag that Lukashenko banned in favor of a Soviet-style replacement, while others waved European Union flags. Milinkevich arrived at Oktyabrskaya square later.

"We demand new, honest elections," he told the crowd. "This was a complete farce."

The elections chief, Lidia Yermoshina, said Lukashenko won 92.2 percent of the vote in hospitals and military units, where about 1.2 percent of the nation's eligible voters cast ballots.

She said overall results were unlikely to vary greatly from those numbers, virtually guaranteeing a third term for the authoritarian leader who has ruled the republic since 1994.

Lukashenko had vowed to prevent the kind of mass rallies that helped bring opposition leaders to power in former Soviet republics Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan following disputed elections.

The use or threat of force neutralized opposition efforts to protest vote results in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan last year, and a government crackdown in Uzbekistan left hundreds dead.

"It will be a peaceful demonstration. We will come out with flowers," Milinkevich said after voting at a school. "We do not intend to elect a president on the square. We will tell people the truth."

Despite the government ban on protests, police did not immediately move to disperse the crowd, which AP reporters estimated at well over 5,000. Forces guarded the hulking building facing the square that temporarily houses the election commission, but they did not surround protesters.

People blew horns and shouted "Mi-lin-ke-vich!" _ echoing the much larger crowds on Kiev's Independence Square in neighboring Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution, which inspired the Belarus opposition.

"I came here to find out the real results of the election," said Veronika Danilyuk, a 19-year-old student. "I believe that he's the only one who can guarantee freedom and fairness to our country."

Earlier, two exit polls gave Lukashenko more than 80 percent of the vote. The polling was done by two groups that critics say are loyal to Lukashenko, and those figures were certain to fuel opposition claims of fraud and compound Western concern about the authoritarian government's conduct of the election.

"People will laugh at those figures," Milinkevich said. "In Poland, people began laughing at communist authorities and this is when Solidarity won. We are getting there."

The Soviet past is palpable in Belarus. The government makes five-year plans, the main state newspaper has "Soviet" in its title and the state security service is officially called the KGB.

Underlying the election is a struggle for regional influence between Russia and the West, which is seen by Lukashenko's government and its backers in Moscow as a major culprit in the political upheaval in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan.

Lukashenko accuses the West of plotting a repeat here. Belarus is one of the few former Soviet republics still loyal to the Kremlin.

The elections commission said 81 percent of the 7 million eligible voters had cast ballots by noon, clearing the 50 percent mark needed to make the election valid. Yermoshina said about 30 percent voted last week in early balloting, which is seen by the opposition as especially vulnerable to fraud.

The elections were being overseen by about 400 monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

Western countries have forged close ties with the opposition and made no secret of their contempt for the ruler of what Washington calls an outpost of tyranny in Europe. The United States has condemned the campaign as "seriously flawed and tainted."

Lukashenko dismissed international criticism.

"We in Belarus are conducting the election for ourselves," he said. "What is important is that elections take place in accordance with Belarusian legislation. As for sweeping accusations, I've been hearing them for 10 years. I've already gotten used to them."

The state has mounted a campaign of threats and allegations of violent, foreign-backed overthrow plots that its opponents say is aimed at frightening people and justifying the potential use of force against protesters. Security was tightened Sunday near the square and streets were closed to traffic.

On Thursday, the KGB chief accused the opposition of plotting to seize power with foreign help by detonating bombs and sowing chaos on election day, and warned that protesters could be charged with terrorism.

Since 1994, Lukashenko has silenced foes and maintained his grip on power through votes dismissed as illegitimate by the opposition and Western governments. Four opponents disappeared in 1999-2000.

While he is a dictator to his opponents and foreign critics, many Belarusians see the 51-year-old former collective farm manager as having brought stability after the uncertainty that followed the 1991 Soviet collapse. While the landlocked nation, about as big and flat as Kansas, is far from prosperous, the economy is growing and salaries are rising.

Critics say the economic successes are unsustainable, based largely on cheap Russian energy and heavy-handed state intervention reminiscent of the communist era.

Milinkevich, 58, a former physicist, said he aimed to show that change was possible.

"Milinkevich gives us hope that we will pull ourselves out of this swamp," said Nina Karachinskaya, 38, a hairstylist. "The country must go not into the past but the future, and our future is Europe."

Source: AP

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Sunday, March 19, 2006

Exit Polls Give Belarus Imcumbent Lead

MINSK, Belarus - Exit poll results gave hard-line incumbent Alexander Lukashenko an overwhelming lead in Sunday's presidential vote in the former Soviet republic of Belarus, and the opposition candidate said he would not recognize the results.


A woman with a child casts her ballot at a polling station village of Novy Dvor outside Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, March 19, 2006, with the Belarus State Flag at the back ground .Two Belarusian exit polling organizations whose findings are certain to be regarded by the opposition as badly skewed said initial surveys gave incumbent Alexander Lukashenko more than 80 percent of the votes cast in the presidential election.

The statement by opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich stoked concerns of a violent confrontation between police and opposition supporters. Milinkevich called on supporters to gather in protest despite a ban on election-day gatherings.

Sunday's vote was shadowed by fears of confrontation between the forces of Lukashenko and beleaguered opponents pushing for change after 12 years of his rule. The election campaign was marred by arrests, harassment and terror plot accusations.

Exit poll results gave the hard-line leader more than 80 percent of the vote. The polling was done by two groups that critics say are loyal to Lukashenko, and those figures were certain to fuel opposition claims of fraud and compound Western concern about the authoritarian government's conduct of the election.

An exit poll by the EcooM organization gave Lukashenko 84.2 percent of the vote and Milinkevich just 2 percent, EcooM chief Sergei Musiyenko said.

Exit polling by another group, the Belarusian Committee of Youth Organizations, gave Lukashenko 84.2 percent and Milinkevich 3.1 percent, group representative Alexander Yushkevich said on state television.

Milinkevich said he would not recognize the results and called for a repeat vote.

"These elections will be recognized neither by us nor by democratic countries," Milinkevich told a news conference.

After the mass protests that helped bring opposition leaders to power in three former Soviet republics following disputed elections, Belarus could be the latest country on Russia's periphery to be convulsed by protests and the threat of a forceful state response.

Underlying the election is a struggle for regional influence between Russia and the West, which is seen by Lukashenko's government and its backers in Moscow as a major culprit in the political upheaval in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. Lukashenko accuses the West of plotting a repeat here.

Belarus is one of the few former Soviet republics to remain loyal to the Kremlin.

The Central Elections Commission said on its Web site that 52.7 percent of the 7 million eligible voters had cast ballots by noon, clearing the 50 percent mark needed to make the election valid.

Commission chief Lidiya Yermoshina said voters were resisting "alien influence" seeking "to hinder our election process."

Western countries have forged close ties with the opposition and made no secret of their contempt for the ruler of what Washington calls an outpost of tyranny in Europe. It has condemned the campaign as "seriously flawed and tainted."

After casting his vote at a sports facility in Minsk, Lukashenko dismissed international criticism of the election.

"We in Belarus are conducting the election for ourselves," he said. "What is important is that elections take place in accordance with Belarusian legislation. As for sweeping accusations, I've been hearing them for 10 years. I've already gotten used to them."

Since his first election in 1994, Lukashenko has silenced foes and maintained his grip on power through votes dismissed as illegitimate by the opposition and Western governments. Four opponents disappeared in 1999-2000.

While he is a dictator to his opponents and foreign critics, many Belarusians see the 51-year-old former collective farm manager as having brought stability after the uncertainty that followed the 1991 Soviet collapse.

"He gives us work and a salary," said Igor Nisakov, 52, a plumber who voted for Lukashenko.

Even independent polls said Lukashenko, who has pushed through a referendum scrapping term limits and hinted he plans to stay in office indefinitely, could win a majority of the vote.

Milinkevich called on Belarusians to gather on Oktybrskaya Square in central Minsk after polls close, but he has suggested demonstrators would not try to force their way onto the square if it is heavily guarded by police and would gather elsewhere.

"It will be a peaceful demonstration. We will come out with flowers," Milinkevich said after casting his ballot at a Minsk school. "We will tell people the truth."

The state has mounted a campaign of threats and allegations of violent, foreign-backed overthrow plots that its opponents say is aimed at frightening people off the streets and justifying the potential use of force against protesters. Security was tightened Sunday near the square, with streets blocked to traffic.

The United States and European Union have called on both sides to avoid violence.

Milinkevich, 58, a former physicist, said he aimed to show that change is possible.

"Milinkevich gives us hope that we will pull ourselves out of this swamp," said Nina Karachinskaya, 38, a hairstylist. "The country must go not into the past but the future, and our future is Europe."

Source: AP

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Blue Days in Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- A hard-fought election will decide whether the orange revolution needs to change its colors.


Under bleached winter skies, Kiev is saturated with color — blues, ice whites, reds and, of course, orange. Political parties have plastered every wall in their liveries; their supporters declare allegiance with vivid scarves, headbands and banners at rallies patrolled by riot police.

It's as if Hollywood had decided to re-enact the orange revolution that less than 15 months ago installed the people's choice, Viktor Yushchenko, as Ukrainian President. In the Hollywood version Yushchenko would be an unimpeachable hero and his ousted rival, the former Russia-backed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, an unalloyed villain.

But parliamentary elections this Sunday, the real reason for the colorful factional displays, are set to prove that there are no heroes in Ukrainian politics — and no irredeemable villains either. Three parties lead a field of 44 competing for the 450 seats in the parliament, the Verkhovna Rada.

Yushchenko's liberal-democratic Our Ukraine (ou) faces strong competition from the Bloc of Yuliya Tymoshenko (BYuT), led by Yushchenko's erstwhile ally and now his bitter opponent. And opinion polls suggest that neither party can expect as many votes as the Party of the Regions (pr).

Recent polls predict just under 18% for ou and 16% for BYuT. With strong support in predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, pr is looking at a hefty lead. "We expect to carry well over 35% of the vote," Nikolai Azarov, chair of pr's political council, told Time.

That would not be enough for an outright majority in the Rada but would mark an extraordinary rehabilitation for Yanukovych, the pr leader originally declared the winner of the 2004 presidential contest against Yushchenko but replaced by his rival after vote rigging provoked an outburst of popular rage.

The office of President is not in contention but constitutional reforms have transferred the selection of Prime Minister and most of the Cabinet from the President to the Rada. If Yanukovych gets enough votes to form a coalition with smaller parties, he will have more influence on selecting a government than Yushchenko.

That would likely undermine the President's drive to integrate Ukraine more closely with the West, toward an eventual aim of membership in the European Union. Instead, Ukraine would once more align itself with Moscow. "This is a very special election," says Volodymyr Lytvyn, the Rada speaker and leader of the centrist People's Bloc. "At stake is whether Ukraine has passed the point of no return to its so recent authoritarian past."

The orange government came to power promising fundamental change that would make such a return impossible. And to an extent it has delivered: for business, less red tape and tax; for the wider community, better wages and pensions, free speech and fair elections.

"Profound democratic changes have occurred both in the structures of the state and in people's minds," says Vasily Doroshchuk, head of Caravan Records, one of the country's leading record labels. But these achievements have been undermined by food and fuel shortages, and soaring inflation. "Some 40% [of voters] are still undecided how they will vote," says the incumbent ou Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov.

"Most of them are our supporters, but they're now at a loss, because they expected too much too fast, which simply couldn't happen." He predicts that "the Rada will end up split the same way as society."

Those fault lines deepened last autumn, when Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, one-time comrades-in-arms who spearheaded the orange revolution, traded accusations of betraying the cause. Their rift will now play out at the ballot box. "It's like choosing between mother and father when the family breaks up," says record-label boss Doroshchuk.

As often happens in divorce cases, a third party may benefit. A pr activist says, baldly: "We're preparing to grab the rewards of our political comeback." The party's official program is much more benign: improvements to the economy and a better deal for Ukraine in the price of natural gas, nearly doubled by Russia after it briefly suspended supplies late last December.

"Russia is an influence, of course," says Yekhanurov. "It's like having a furnace the other side of an inadequate partition wall: they turn it up, you feel the heat; they turn it down, you feel the cold."

As the election approaches, the political temperature is being stoked by the prospect of the largest parties being forced to govern in coalition. Rada Speaker Lytvyn dismisses talk of an ou-pr pairing. "I don't see these two entering a coalition," he says.

"But should I prove wrong, I can only say that there are no principles left in politics any more." His reaction was echoed by Tymoshenko in a TV interview last week. "If they go for it, what was the revolution all about, then?" she asked.

Failure to establish a workable government won't just call into question the meaning of the orange revolution. A standoff between Yushchenko and the Rada could unleash the violence and disintegration the revolution avoided. "The country will not endure the ensuing confrontation," says Lytvyn.

"Its stamina is exhausted." Fair elections are a legacy of the orange revolution. But denied an upbeat, Hollywood ending, Ukraine's political narrative could still turn into something as bleak and ambiguous as a cold war thriller.

Source: Time Europe

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As Polling Stations Open, Belarus Braces For Aftermath

MINSK, Belarus -- There are no campaign posters or billboards here, not even for President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, who has otherwise thoroughly orchestrated his re-election to a third term on Sunday.


Belarussian youth shout slogans during the rock concert organized in support of opposition presidential candidate Alexander Milinkevich in Minsk March 18, 2006. Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko vowed on Friday to wring the necks of rivals who violated public order, but opponents urged supporters to go into the streets with flowers to proclaim weekend elections rigged.

The security services barred campaigning in the city's center. Handing out leaflets, even possessing them, risks arrest. Dozens have already been jailed in the prelude to the vote, some of them senior campaign workers for the democratic opposition.

The results of the election on Sunday, widely denounced here and abroad as undemocratic, are a foregone conclusion. But the vote is only a prelude to the real struggle against Mr. Lukashenko's government, one that many fear could end in violent reprisals along the monumental streets of Minsk, the capital.

A text message sent to Belarussian mobile phones on Saturday, from an unknown sender, carried an ominous warning about what might unfold on Minsk's central square. "On the evening of March 19, 2006, on October Square, provocateurs are preparing bloodshed," said the message, apparently intended to discourage attendance. "Protect your life and health."

In an attempt to replicate the popular uprising against a rigged presidential election in Ukraine in 2004, two opposition candidates, Aleksandr Milinkevich and Aleksandr V. Kazulin, have called on their supporters to assemble Sunday night to protest what they denounced as a chimera of a democratic process. They have done so in defiance of a ban on Election Day rallies and threats that those who gather could face charges of terrorism.

"We will stay for 24 hours," said Alyaksei Yanukevich, a close aide of Mr. Milinkevich's, describing a plan to occupy the square in peaceful protest. "If on Monday night there are more people than on Sunday, then that means the process will continue."

What might happen after that, he could not say. Mr. Lukashenko vowed to crush any protests, warning Belarussians not to participate and foreign governments not to encourage them.

"We know where they met, whom they met with and what discussions they had," Mr. Lukashenko said during remarks made at an auto factory in Zhodino on Friday, according to the Interfax news agency. "God forbid that they should try to perpetrate something in the country. We will twist off their heads as though they are ducklings."

The United States and European Union have warned of sanctions. In Washington, the White House released a report on Friday that accused Mr. Lukashenko of having created "a repressive dictatorship on the doorstep of the European Union and NATO."

The report, citing news accounts and critics, accused him of personally enriching himself and asserted that he was "likely among the most corrupt leaders in the world."

Mr. Lukashenko, already shunned in the West, has responded with defiance as the election campaign unfolded. The arrests of opposition workers and the restrictions on public events "have limited the scope for a vibrant election campaign," the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said in a report based on the findings of its observers here.

The most prominent independent newspaper, Narodnaya Volya, or People's Will, had 250,000 issues seized on March 3 as they were being delivered from a printer in Smolensk, Russia. On Monday, the printer suddenly annulled the paper's contract, said the editor, Iosif Seredich.

He found another printer in Russia, but after Tuesday's copies were seized, he shut down the newspaper, one of the last public forums available to the opposition candidates.

"There is no sense," he said.

Mr. Lukashenko himself forswore campaigning. He has instead carried on with official duties, which state television has extensively covered while it has ignored the opposition except to criticize it.

One of his campaign managers, Vladimir Gostyukhin, declined a request to be interviewed. He said that he was very busy, and that he would vote early on Saturday — a widespread practice that Mr. Lukashenko's critics warn would be used to rig the results in the absence of observers — and then leave Minsk.

On Friday night, Mr. Lukashenko gave a short, televised address. He urged people to vote, defended his government from accusations of authoritarianism and reassured viewers that there would be no coup.

"The fact that four candidates are taking part in the ongoing election campaign is also evidence of democracy in this country," he said in remarks transcribed by the BBC. (In addition to Mr. Milinkevich and Mr. Kazulin, a fourth candidate, Sergei Gaydukevich, is a Lukashenko supporter.)

"Some candidates insistently call on people to take to the streets if the results of the vote are not in their favor," he added. "Is this their understanding of democracy? It is unrest, pogroms and violence?"

His opponents vowed only peaceful demonstrations. "I beg you to come out with smiles and flowers and balloons," Mr. Kazulin, who was beaten and detained during a confrontation with security officers on March 2, told an overflowing crowd of hundreds in a tattered movie theater on the edge of Minsk on Friday night. "Take chocolates or sweets and give them to the police."

The rally was the first joint appearance for Mr. Kazulin, a former university rector, and Mr. Milinkevich, a former physics professor who is the more prominent opposition candidate, representing a coalition of 10 parties. The audience erupted into chants of "Long live Belarus."

"The mood of the people now is different," Mr. Milinkevich said when asked about the expected announcement of an overwhelming victory for the president. "The people will laugh now, and that is what the authorities are most afraid of."

Beyond those who attend opposition events, fear remains pervasive. People asked about the election invariably refused to give their names. "Are they filming?" a middle-aged woman asked near Victory Square. She had no doubt about the outcome, she said, because she had no illusion about democracy here.

"Like Fidel Castro, he will be president forever," she said and hurried off.

The democratic changes in Ukraine — as well as in Georgia in 2003 and Kyrgyzstan in 2005 — inspired many here, but Mr. Lukashenko's government took note, too. In December, his government enacted new laws increasing criminal penalties for organizing the sort of public protest now being planned.

"He analyzed very well the mistakes made by Shevardnadze and Kuchma," said Igor Marinich, referring to former leaders of Georgia and Ukraine whose autocratic governments were swept aside by protests. He is the son of Mikhail Marinich, an opposition leader who was jailed in 2004, the first of what he predicted then would be a wave of politically motivated arrests.

"And they," he added, "were not the dictators he is."

Source: The New York Times

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Tensions Loom Ahead Of Belarus Vote

MINSK, Belarus -- Tension loomed over a presidential election Sunday in Belarus despite a near certain victory for hard-line incumbent Alexander Lukashenko, the latest leader on Russia's periphery to face a potentially explosive confrontation with opponents desperate for change.


A Belarus woman leaves a polling booth during early voting at a polling station in Minsk. Belarus' main opposition leader reiterated on the eve of Sunday's presidential election his call for street protests despite a threat by President Alexander Lukashenko to "break the neck" of any unrest.

After the revolutions that have swept three former Soviet republics following disputed elections, opposition suspicions of fraud could make Belarus the fourth to be convulsed by protests and the threat of a forceful state response.

Underlying the election is an atmosphere of Cold War confrontation pitting Belarus and Russia against the West, which is seen by Lukashenko's government and its backers in Moscow as a chief culprit in the political upheaval in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan.

Lukashenko has accused Western countries of plotting a repeat here. While Russia's relations with Belarus are sometimes strained, the Kremlin is wary of losing its only ally between its western border and NATO countries, and has signaled approval of a Lukashenko victory.

The United States, meanwhile, has forged close ties with the beleaguered opposition and made no secret of its disdain for the ruler of what the Bush administration calls an outpost of tyranny in Europe. It has condemned the campaign as "seriously flawed and tainted."

While Lukashenko is a dictator to his opponents and foreign critics, muzzling the media and stifling dissent during 12 years of authoritarian rule, many Belarusians cherish the leader who likes to be known as "Batka" Father.

Even independent polls suggest he could win outright with a majority of the vote, avoiding a run-off. Lukashenko, who pushed through a referendum scrapping term limits and has hinted he plans to stay in office indefinitely, portrays himself as indispensable.

"What can you do? You will elect me," he told a crowd last fall.

Supporters see Lukashenko, 51, as having brought stability after the uncertainties and suffering that followed the 1991 Soviet collapse. While the landlocked nation, about as big and flat as Kansas, is far from prosperous, the economy is growing and salaries are rising.

"He has been a successful leader, so let him stay in power at least until he gets old," said Vitaly Musel, 27, a university administrator in the southeastern city of Mozyr.

Critics say the economic successes are unsustainable, based largely on cheap Russian energy and heavy-handed state intervention reminiscent of the communist era, when he was a collective farm manager.

The Soviet past is strongly palpable in Belarus. The government makes five-year plans, the main state newspaper has "Soviet" in its title and the state security service is officially called the KGB.

Since his first election in 1994, Lukashenko has silenced foes and maintained his grip on power through votes dismissed as illegitimate by the opposition and Western governments. Four opponents disappeared in 1999-2000.

"People are scared," said Zhanna, 40, a Mozyr teacher who declined to give her last name for fear of retribution. Interviewed at a rally for the main opposition candidate, Alexander Milinkevich, she said she didn't trust Lukashenko and wanted him out.

In Minsk, the quiet atmosphere on the broad, clean avenues could be shattered Sunday. After a campaign marred by arrests of opposition activists and blatantly biased media coverage, Milinkevich has called on Belarusians to protest peacefully. The government has banned election day rallies, setting the stage for a showdown.

Fearing the kind of protests that helped bring opposition leaders to power in other ex-Soviet republics, the state has mounted a campaign of threats and allegations aimed to frighten people off the streets Sunday.

On Thursday, the KGB chief accused the opposition of plotting to seize power with foreign help by detonating bombs and sowing chaos on election day, and warned that protesters could be charged with terrorism.

Subscribers to the country's biggest cell phone service provider received text messages on the eve of the vote warning that "provocateurs are planning bloodshed" Sunday evening at Oktyabrskaya Square in central Minsk, where protesters are expected to try to gather.

Milinkevich dismissed the messages and the claims of a coup plot as part of a government scare strategy aimed to discredit opponents and justify the potential use of force against protesters.

He urged supporters to be wary of provocations and suggested protesters would not try to force their way onto the square.

"We will come out with flowers, we will come out peacefully, without any violence," Milinkevich told several hundred supporters Saturday outside a movie theater, part of a final push in a campaign he acknowledges he won't win.

Ignored or attacked by state media, his rallies often banned or disrupted, the 58-year-old former physicist says he is out to show the country that change is possible and imperative.

"We have defeated the apathy, but it is hard for us to conquer the fear," he said last week.

Milinkevich said more than 300 opposition supporters have been detained ahead of the election, some jailed until after election day. Authorities have seized the print runs of independent newspapers and barred at least a dozen European election observers from the country.

On Saturday, police with machine guns ordered the evacuation of a building housing offices of an opposition party, and Associated Press photographers saw several people driven away in a police car. A member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe observer mission accompanied them to monitor their treatment.

The authorities have sought to whip up anti-Western sentiment, with state-run media airing reports accusing the United States of sending tents meant for a protest camp like the one in Kiev during Ukraine's Orange Revolution. The KGB also sought to link Americans with an alleged takeover plot involving terrorist training in Georgia.

State media have fed voters a steady diet of Lukashenko, from an election address Friday in which he warned that foreigners seeking to destabilize Belarus would have their necks broken "like a duckling's" to a pop performance hailing "Batka" as "strict but fair" and "cooler than all the rest."

Also running are Alexander Kozulin, an opposition candidate who was beaten up by security agents earlier this month, and Sergei Gaidukevich, widely viewed as a Lukashenko loyalist meant to legitimize the election.

Source: AP

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Saturday, March 18, 2006

West, East Ukraine Still Split In Heated Election

STRIY, Ukraine -- A longstanding divide between nationalist Western Ukraine and its Russian-speaking east -- the fault line in the 2004 "Orange Revolution" -- remains unhealed a week before an election with high stakes.

Yulia Tymoshenko at a press conference

Liberal President Viktor Yushchenko, propelled to power by the Revolution but now plagued by splits in his camp, faces challenges from two figures in the March 26 parliamentary poll.

In the west, Yulia Tymoshenko, his ally who roused crowds in the revolution but was sacked as prime minister last year, chips away at his support. The east remains the fiefdom of Viktor Yanukovich, the pro-Moscow rival he beat in the 2004 campaign.

Parliament enjoys new powers, enabling parties holding a majority to name the prime minister for the first time. And speculation is rife that the president's allies will have to join forces with one side or the other to form a government.

"The revolution is not yet finished. We must keep fighting to secure power!" Tymoshenko told a crowd of 5,000 on Friday in the small western town of Striy, near the Polish border.

Sporting her trademark peasant braid, Tymoshenko wades into the cobbled streets dotted by neatly painted houses, demanding action to revive the spirit of the 2004 protests and keep out "the Yanukovich gang."

Tymoshenko denounces a January deal sharply raising the price of gas prices -- a central campaign issue -- as a ruse to keep Ukraine under Moscow's control.

And she makes it plain she wants to be prime minister again.

"Why did we carry out a revolution? Not for this gang to come back as victors. Never!" she says, embracing supporters carrying campaign flags depicting a heart on a white background.

"There is only one path. Win the votes of those who stood on our side of the barricade, remove politicians who advised us badly, rejoin forces with the president and return to the path as set down before the 2004 election."

YANUKOVICH IN THE LEAD

Latest opinion polls give Yanukovich's Regions Party the lead among more than 40 groups, with about 30 percent.

The president's Our Ukraine party, led by the prime minister who replaced Tymoshenko, is second with 18 percent to about 14 for Tymoshenko's bloc.

Ukrainian-speaking Western regions, once under the control of both Poland and the Austro-Hungarian empire, are the cradle of Ukrainian national sentiment and deeply suspicious of Yanukovich and his calls for closer ties with Russia.

In the Russian-speaking industrial east, Yanukovich starts a day of campaigning on Friday by visiting his mother's grave and -- with television crews in tow -- securing a blessing from an Orthodox priest "in your battle against evil."

Later, at a steel mill in his home town of Yenakievo, he tells 5,000 supporters Yushchenko is driving Ukraine to ruin.

The country's leaders, he says, must improve ties with Russia to negotiate a better gas deal. And coal miners, his key constituents furious at wage arrears, must get paid on time.

"Gas prices will make our industry uncompetitive. How can we trust this government?" he says against a backdrop of smoke-belching plants.

He remains unbowed by his 2004 defeat, when Yushchenko won a re-run of a poll struck down as rigged by the Supreme Court.

"They didn't break us. We are ready to take power," he says. "I know you dream of stability, of someone representing the true face of 48 million Ukrainians. Not someone traveling the world, cap in hand, to take in odd pennies."

Young admirers carrying balloons in the Regions Party's blue and white colors mount the stage to shake Yanukovich's hand.

A wrinkled woman, wrapped in a brown shawl, is brought gingerly forward and embraces him.

"There, there, don't cry, my dear grandmother," Yanukovich tells her. "Everything will soon be fine."

Source: Reuters

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Fear Of Violence Ahead Of Belarus Election

MINSK, Belarus -- Belarus votes in a presidential election amid fears of a violent confrontation after the opposition vowed to protest vote-rigging and President Alexander Lukashenko's government threatened to treat demonstrators as "terrorists."

The Chairman of the Belarus KGB Stepan Sukharenko claimed that opponents of Lukashenko planned to stage a "violent coup" under cover of presidential elections on Sunday and warned that street protestors could face the death penalty.

The main opposition candidate, Alexander Milinkevich, has accused Lukashenko of preparing to rig the vote and has called for peaceful protests in the capital Minsk after polls close.

But the ex-Soviet state's KGB security service claims the opposition is planning "a violent coup" and has warned that anyone demonstrating on election day could be charged with "terrorism" and face execution or life imprisonment.

The confrontation in Belarus, sandwiched between the European Union and Russia, is under close scrutiny as part of a wider battle for influence between Moscow and the West following three pro-Western popular revolts in other ex-Soviet republics.

There is a "probability of violence," a Western diplomat in Minsk, who asked not to be named, told AFP.

Lukashenko faces three challengers, but the former collective farm manager's Soviet-style government controls nearly all the media and he is expected to win a third term by a landslide.

Hundreds of outside observers will monitor the election, but any verification of the results will be difficult. No exit polls are planned, several observers have been barred entry, and even independent pre-vote opinion polls are virtually non-existant.

On Friday, Belarussian border guards cancelled the visas of two Polish journalists, and also said they had barred nine Georgian nationals, including members of parliament, who planned to observe the vote.

In an economy relying heavily on Russian subsidies, Lukashenko has won some popularity by paying pensions and state salaries on time. His iron rule has also spared the country's 10 million people the kind of ethnic or politically inspired conflicts seen in other corners of the former Soviet Union.

However, opposition candidates, whom Lukashenko labels "scum," have barely been able to get their point of view across.

The only election posters in Minsk belong to Lukashenko, 51, displaying children or war veterans under the slogan: "We are for a stable Belarus."

Opposition candidates were limited to two half-hour segments of airtime on state television and radio during their campaigns, while the loyal state media lavishes attention on Lukashenko daily.

Dozens of opposition activists have been arrested or detained while distributing leaflets or trying to meet in public with voters.

Opposition newspapers are mostly printed outside of Belarus and are not allowed in news kiosks. Police confiscated 200,000 copies of one such newspaper, Tovarish, on Friday after it was brought in from Russia.

Milinkevich, 58, has accused Lukashenko of "planning total falsification" on Sunday and has urged supporters to flood central Minsk for what he insists will be a peaceful protest.

However, KGB head Stepan Sukhorenko said Thursday that demonstrations will not be allowed because "a violent coup is being prepared." Belarussian state television's news programmes warn darkly of "bloodshed".

A member of the underground opposition youth movement Zubr told AFP on Friday that success depended on enough people daring to go to the streets.

"Clearly if there aren't many of us they'll viciously disperse the demonstration," the activist, Alexander, said.

"I don't know if there'll be a revolution or not," he said. "But if there's no change now then there might not be for another 10 years."

The administration of US President George W. Bush describes Lukashenko's Belarus as "the last dictatorship in Europe" and the European Union on Thursday blasted the "wave of arrests" of opposition activists.

Terry Davis, secretary general of the Council of Europe, a Europe-wide human rights watchdog, said Thursday that the election was taking place "in an atmosphere of fear and intimidation."

However, President Vladimir Putin's Russia and Belarus are close allies and are discussing plans to unite the two countries.

Moscow is also furious at what it sees as Western hands in the series of popular revolts that swept the former Soviet republics of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan between 2003 and 2005.

Ukraine, whose "orange revolution" saw pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko defeat a Moscow-backed candidate in presidential elections, also holds key parliamentary elections next week, with pro-Russian forces apparently poised to make a comeback.

To avoid a run-off vote in Belarus, a candidate must win at least 50 percent of votes cast. At least half of the country's seven million registered voters must take part for the election to be valid.

Source: AFP

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Chernobyl: The Legacy

LONDON, England -- Twenty years on from the world's worst environmental catastrophe, John Woodcock revisits the still-poisonous landscapes of Ukraine and Belarus. But as Britain debates whether to build a new generation of nuclear power stations, are we forgetting the terrifying lessons of 26 April 1986?

Belarusian children suffering from the aftermath of Chernobyl

Tourism does not come more chilling than in the visitor centre at the remains of the Chernobyl nuclear power station. The view from the window is hypnotic in its awfulness. It overlooks what appears to be an unremarkable industrial complex, dominated by a red-and-white striped chimney stack wrapped in a steel frame. Pop music blaring from a radio somewhere within the site adds to a sense of normality that is misleading, shockingly so.

The surrealism of disco sounds in such a place is reinforced by the centre's ominous exhibits. They are dominated by a large model of what cannot be seen from the window. It represents the inside of the wrecked Reactor No 4. Tiny figures in white protective suits are placed among the mock debris, replicating those who today, only a few hundred yards away, perform the most dangerous tasks imaginable.

Beside the display, a video relates what happened at the plant 20 years ago next month, on 26 April 1986. In brief, inexperienced operators in the control room made catastrophic mistakes during the testing of equipment, compounding fundamental design flaws and inadequate safety procedures.

The result was the world's worst - and continuing - environmental disaster involving nuclear energy. One casualty was the company town of Pripyat, little more than a mile down the road. It was home to the plant's workers and their families, until the population of nearly 50,000 was evacuated en masse, as a radioactive vapour descended on them. What they left behind will remain abandoned forever. It is the ultimate ghost town.

There are still scenes, among its poplar-lined avenues and Party symbols of the Soviet era, which capture the poignancy of a hurried escape: a piano in the remains of a 14th-floor apartment; a doll left in the community's nursery where bed-frames line the walls; books strewn on the floor of what was the public library, some date-stamped on the day disaster struck.

As the commentary in the visitor centre puts it: "Like Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Pripyat was conquered by the atom." The film ends with the message: "The Chernobyl problem is still unresolved." The changing red numbers on a digital panel are part-confirmation of that. On the day we were there the figures were darting between 1.21 and 1.17, and back again.

Julia Marusych, head of the information department at Chernobyl and the woman with possibly the toughest public-relations job on the planet, explained what the numbers meant. They represent, in milliroentgens, the level of radiation outside the centre. 1.21 did not seem a lot, I suggested, and she agreed, before making the point that modest or not, it is still 100 times more than the average natural level of background radiation.

Inside the perimeter fence enclosing the vast redundant plant itself, so-called "stabilisation crews" monitor what is going on at the heart of the site now. It is perilous work. Censors indicate that radiation levels at the reactor's core are 300 million times greater than normal safety margins.

Devastating though the explosion and fire were in 1986, only 3 per cent of the reactor's lethal cocktail of radioactive material escaped at the time - sufficient, however, to lay waste to parts of northern Ukraine, and contaminate 70 per cent of neighbouring Belarus.

Two decades on and more is now leaking into the atmosphere through large holes in the concrete sarcophagus that was built to encase the reactor. Experts said at the time that the protective structure would have to survive far longer than the pyramids of ancient Egypt, such is the long-term potency of radiation.

The present structure has proved inadequate and only now, after years of argument, is work scheduled to begin on what is hoped will be a permanent solution. In the meantime, how safe is the site, which, remarkably in the circumstances, drew 2,000 visitors last year, many with a scientific interest, but also those classed as "disaster tourists"?

The spokeswoman doesn't know. No one does. "We cannot say conditions are safe," said Julia Marusych. "Risks remain." How secure is she in her cheerful, modern office when it overlooks the menacing complex which emits such a deadly and invisible poison?

How is her health? She shrugs. She feels fine, but after working there for six years...

Officially the disaster claimed 56 lives, mainly among those who fought a heroic battle to contain it. Doctors and others are in no doubt that the true figure is already into the thousands as the long-term effects of radiation take their toll. Cancers in various forms have soared, as has the number of children being born with deformities.

Humanitarian aid groups in western Europe do what they can. An Irish-based charity is at the forefront, providing respite for the terminally ill, helping to pay for life-saving operations, and giving money and practical support to impoverished, state- run institutions which will struggle to cope with the human cost of Chernobyl for generations to come.

The charity's founder, Adi Roche, has been to the region about 50 times, and visited the plant itself on eight occasions, putting her own health in jeopardy. She believes the risk is justified in promoting her anti-nuclear stance, all the more relevant to her now that Britain is considering an energy policy ever more reliant on nuclear power.

With its greatest calamity looming behind her she said: "We are in the middle of madness here. Chernobyl represents the first large-scale 'experiment' in the management of a nuclear crisis, and it has failed miserably."

Her opponents include Viktor Krasnov, director of the Department of Nuclear Radiation Safety at Chernobyl, where he has worked for 14 years. He talks optimistically about the situation there, despite the fears of some experts that the reactor's core could implode, causing even greater devastation than before. "There is no immediate danger," he insists. Krasnov is also confident about the sarcophagus, despite its leaks through a decaying shell and the fact it will be relied upon for at least six more years before a new protective shield is constructed. "The situation is under control. It is absolutely safe."

He has not lost faith in nuclear power. On the contrary, he thinks it was a mistake to abandon Chernobyl's other reactors. If he had his way Chernobyl would still be generating electricity in support of Ukraine's four other nuclear plants, and helping to reduce reliance on politically vulnerable energy supplies from Russia.

Krasnov's view is that the lessons learned at Chernobyl have reinforced the industry as a whole. He added: "I am absolutely sure that such an accident will never happen again. Nuclear energy is safe."

You do not have to travel far for contradictions. The scene is a vehicle graveyard where 2,000 contaminated relics - former Soviet helicopters, army trucks and tankers, fire engines, ambulances, buses and cars - reveal the scale of the so-called Battle of Chernobyl. In the words of a retired Army colonel who ruined his health in flying numerous sorties over the site during the emergency, it was nothing less than a battle "to save the world" from unprecedented amounts of fallout.

The wreckage is kept in a guarded compound while the authorities decide what to do with it. After 20 years, answers remain elusive. In the end it may join more heavily contaminated equipment and have to be buried.

Such desolation also exists in a different form 100 miles and more from Chernobyl. Radiation pays no heed to national borders. In Belarus, exclusion zones contain numerous villages emptied of life because the land is dangerously irradiated, and will remain so for centuries. Their names have already disappeared from updated maps.
Where bulldozers haven't already removed the past, wooden and brick houses look forlorn as they collapse bit by bit and are embraced by the vegetation of an apparently normal landscape, dominated by forests of pine and silver birch, and almost devoid of human activity. Yet for those who can obtain the documentation to venture into these beautifully desolate areas, there are a few signs of habitation.

Take the case of what once was Komsomolskya Street, in the hamlet of Bartolomeevka, in Belarus. At No 23, the electricity is cut off, the postman never calls and officialdom has ceased to recognise its existence. This is the home of Ivan and Lena Muzychenko, an elderly couple who refused to leave and now survive through their chickens and hens, and the food they produce in their polluted garden. "It is better to die from radiation than hunger," they say.

A handful of others have, against all advice, returned to the village. One local man, Nikolai Gordunov, was evacuated in 1991 to a "safe" town far away across the country. After three years he could no longer tolerate what he calls "balcony life" in an urban apartment and chose to return to the contaminated countryside where he grew up. Sharing the risks with him is Svetlana, the woman he met and married while in exile.

Chernobyl wiped out numerous villages in 1986 despite the valiant efforts of 600,000 people, many of them volunteers, who risked their health - and in many cases gave their lives - to "clean up" the polluted land in the days, months and years afterwards. They were the so-called liquidators, or likwitators.

Few were braver than retired Soviet colonel Oleg Chichkov, now 65. At the time of Chernobyl he was flying army helicopters near the Chinese border. He recalls reading a "tiny article" about an incident at a nuclear power station across the continent. "They'll soon have that under control," he said to himself. Shortly after, he and a few colleagues were ordered there immediately. From Chichkov's military training and knowledge of nuclear power he was under no illusions about what was at stake.

In his MI26 helicopter, supposedly protected against radiation by its lead-covered floor, he and other pilots between them flew 60 sorties a day for more than five weeks above the site. Chichkov was 45 then and had three children. Although the pilots were given iodine pills, he understood the perils of radiation and refused to expose younger crews who were not yet fathers to the risk of becoming infertile. Of those who shared the missions with him, four are now dead, and his own health is deteriorating.

He has had a stroke, suffers from a bone disease, and walks with a limp. He retains his military bearing however. His uniform is ablaze with medals, one of them for service at Chernobyl. But on a practical level life has been tough since the collapse of the Soviet Union and what he describes as the resulting "mess".

A grant covers half the rent on his apartment, he receives a state pension equivalent to about £25 a month, and once a year has a paid-for spell in a sanitorium. He has another perk as well - the man who helped "to save the world" is entitled to travel free on public transport in Minsk.

Not only has his own health suffered. His wife, Natasha, had thyroid cancer, one of thousands of such victims whose condition is marked by a post-operative red crescent scar across the throat known locally as the "Chernobyl Necklace".

Life has changed in other ways for Igor Avetisov. He lived in Uzbekhistan, more than 2,000 miles away, when he was told that his driving skills were needed at Chernobyl. He was flown to Kiev with 120 others - including friends, many of whom he says died prematurely. They arrived at Chernobyl nearly two months after the explosion, and even then they were not told how dangerous the situation was.

He remembers seeing an army of people washing down the roads in a near-hopeless effort to keep the radioactive dust down in the summer heat. He also recalls driving near Pripyat and other places where one minute there had been everyday normality, the next only clues to indicate vanished lives that would never be restored. "In the gardens, washing was still on the lines. In a shop I saw sausage on the scales, and money that had not been locked away. It was kind of scary."

Avetisov is 70 now, with a smile dominated by his gold tooth. He is surprisingly cheerful considering that his poor health has exiled him in Belarus for the past 16 years. He is both angry and philosophical, proud too to have a medal which records that he was "a participant in the liquidating of the consequences of Chernobyl nuclear power plant".

He did return to his distant homeland for a while but because of his lung disorder doctors there advised him to live by the sea or near pine forests. A relative offered to care for him, though it meant returning to a country which, for all the official assurances, continues to pay a huge environmental and human cost.

This is confirmed by scenes at Vesnova, a state-run institution in the countryside south of Minsk. It is part orphanage, part unit for severely handicapped children and young people. It is home to 138 victims, aged four to 25, and the director is in no doubt that in many cases physical and mental abnormalities are linked to their mothers' exposure to radiation and its genetic consequences.

Several of the children were abandoned by their parents because they lacked the resources to cope. Countless other families struggle to care for their sick children at home, despite the hardships and minimal state support. Charities help alleviate the suffering - which in some families has affected three generations since the disaster - by providing drugs, nursing care and other forms of help.

Despite Chernobyl's tragic toll - a 2,400 per cent increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer, 250 per cent increase in congenital birth deformities, 100 per cent increase in cancers such as leukaemia, plus heart disease and a soaring suicide rate, according to one charity - Soviet-style persecution is being inflicted on those who speak out. The most famous dissident is Professor Yuri Bandazhevsky, former rector of the medical institute in Gomel. He went public after noting an alarming increase in heart problems and birth defects among children after Chernobyl.

As a result he was hounded by the secret police and removed from his post. He continued to challenge the government line and in 2001 was jailed for eight years with hard labour on trumped-up bribery charges. He was adopted as a prisoner of conscience by Amnesty International and eventually released in 2004.

Even so, he remains under virtual house arrest and risks further punishment for continuing his work. He also has a personal incentive. His wife, Galina, has had her thyroid and womb removed - cancers that he attributes to the disaster.

Their apartment in Minsk also serves as a makeshift laboratory where the professor researches the effects of radiation on animal foetuses, notably those of hamsters, which have a genetic print similar to that of humans.

Unsurprisingly he is a fervent opponent of nuclear power. So what is his message to Tony Blair as the British government considers building more nuclear plants?

"To those sitting in offices, debating this issue, I have this simple message: to want more nuclear power rather than less is madness. I wish I could show these people what I see in mortuaries in my country. I wish I could show them the horror of what my experiments reveal. I would say to them, 'Do you need further proof?'

Source: Independent Online

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Georgian Election Observers Detained In Belarus As Pre-Vote Tensions Mount

MINSK, Belarus -- Nine Georgian lawmakers who were to join an international monitoring mission during this weekend's presidential elections were detained at the Belarusian capital's airport and an official said Friday they would be sent back to Georgia.

Belarus opposition presidential candidates Alexander Milinkevich(L) and university rector who heads the Social Democratic Party Alexander Kozulin are seen after their meeting in Minsk. Belarus is bracing for violence in a presidential election Sunday, with the opposition vowing street protests and President Alexander Lukashenko threatening to "break the neck" of any demonstrator.

A spokesman for the Belarusian border guard forces, Vasily Kiptenko, said the nine were detained on Thursday because "they were not desirable on our territory," but declined to elaborate.

The detentions came on the same day the head of the Belarusian KGB accused a Georgian lawmaker and employees of Georgian embassies in neighboring Lithuania and Ukraine of plotting subversive actions during Sunday's vote, in which authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko seeks a third term.

A statement from the Georgian Foreign Ministry said the detention "lays bare again the Belarus government's undisguised decision to act in defiance of the universally recognized principles of democracy and transparency in elections."

The Georgians were to be part of the election-monitoring mission led by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. A spokesman for the OSCE's Parliamentary Assembly, Andreas Baker, said assembly officials had been in touch with the Belarusian Foreign Ministry over the detentions.

Belarusian officials have repeatedly alleged that the opposition, with Western backing, aims to mount massive protests after the election, like those in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan - also ex-Soviet states - that helped bring opposition figures to power over the past two years.

The government has banned demonstrations on election day and KGB chief Stepan Sukhorenko said Thursday that any protesters who take to the streets could be subject to terrorism charges.

Opposition candidates have been given little coverage - and much of that dismissive - in state-controlled media and Belarus' few independent newspapers are under increasing pressure.

On Thursday, hundreds of thousands of copies of the independent newspaper Tovarishch (Comrade) were seized by KGB agents and security police in Minsk, said the newspaper's editor, Sergei Vaznyak.

"There is general hysteria in the country. The people are being prevented from making a conscious choice," said Vaznyak, who also is press secretary for Alexander Milinkevich, the main opposition candidate.

Western countries are lobbing almost-daily criticism against Belarusian authorities for a repressive pre-election climate.

The European Parliament and the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday issued a joint letter to the people of Belarus saying "we are deeply concerned about the violations of democratic principles in the election campaign ... we condemn the ongoing erosion of freedom by the Belarusian government and by the current president and presidential candidate Alexander Lukashenko."

Lukashenko, post-Soviet Belarus' only president, has increasingly tightened his grip on the country since taking office in 1994.

Source: AP

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Official Minsk Is Preparing For A Coup

MINSK, Belarus -- The Belarusian authorities have exacerbated the tension surrounding the 2006 presidential election campaign by declaring that the opposition plans an uprising on Sunday, March 19.

Opposition presidential candidate Alexander Milinkevich adjusts his glasses during a meeting with supporters in Minsk, March 17, 2006. Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Friday he would 'wring the necks' of rivals who violate law and order as the opposition geared up for a last, unauthorised rally before a weekend election.

KGB chief Stsyapan Sukharenka has warned that any demonstrations will be regarded as acts of terrorism. Participants could theoretically be imprisoned for 25 years, jailed for life, or even face the death penalty for appearing in public on the day of the vote. He cited a false exit poll allegedly confiscated from the Partnerstvo group as well as potential Georgian involvement in an uprising.

The plot thickens daily. Belarusian TV has announced the confiscation of a large supply of tents, military goods, and clothing at the Latvian border, which reportedly came from the United States and allegedly was intended for a "color revolution" in the streets of Minsk.

On March 15, the Belarusian police established an emergency headquarters, began to monitor all polling stations, and placed personnel on a high alert. President Alexander Lukashenka has claimed that foreign hooligans from Georgia, Ukraine, and Russia are prepared to enter the country to participate in an attempt to unseat his government.

That a call has been made for a public demonstration on Sunday evening in October Square is well known. The two opposition candidates have made separate appeals for a peaceful display -- Alexander Milinkevich's is timed for 8 pm; and Alexander Kazulin's for 9 pm.

The early election results from closed stations, hospitals, and military bases are anticipated by 9 pm, but the first preliminary results will not be known until 2 am on March 20, according to Lidziya Yarmoshyna, head of the Central Election Commission. Thus the protests are not timed to coincide with the declaration of the election results.

Belarusian TV has also focused on the United States and its political goals to a remarkable degree, offering an analysis of the outlook and activities of the last three ambassadors and purporting to show that U.S. diplomats have consistently met with the opposition and refused to meet with government representatives, even when such was the ostensible reason for their travel.

A host of claims have been made about outside interference in the elections, most often directed at Poland and Latvia (and to a lesser extent, Ukraine).

Clearly, whatever his lead in the race, Lukashenka is obsessed with the notion that he could fall from power. This is not very likely on paper, though the campaign of Milinkevich has made remarkable progress, and in one case at least, an audience of more than 6,000 people came to hear him speak.

During the time available for the campaign, however, he has managed to visit and speak with only about one-third of the electorate.

The campaign of Kazulin, like that of Milinkevich, has been marred by the arrests, detention, and physical abuse of team leaders. On March 9, Kazulin proposed to Milinkevich that they withdraw their candidacies as a form of protest, leaving the field to Lukashenka and Syarhey Haidukevich.

Withdrawal from the campaign at this stage would require a candidate to reimburse the state for monies spent on publishing materials for the campaign. In any event, Milinkevich declared that he would remain in the race to the end.

Kazulin's motives are open to question, though he has enlivened the campaign with sensational speeches and clashes with the authorities.

That he has not been charged for his alleged offenses may reflect the government's desire to deal with opposition leaders in its own way once the campaign is over.

But why is Lukashenka so anxious? Most polls put his popularity in the region of 50-60%, far ahead of his three rivals. Milinkevich's standing is somewhere between six and 17% but rising. For the president, this constitutes a serious problem.

A man who has decried his rivals as foreign agents, scum, and potential terrorists can hardly be satisfied with a vote total that hovers around the 50% mark. Potentially that could even signify the need for a second round.

Milinkevich has stated, "If the elections are fair, a second round is inevitable." On the other hand, an official announcement of a Lukashenka victory in the region of 75-80%, with his three challengers together receiving less than 20%, is tantamount to an admission of a rigged election. And that tally would raise the number of people who would participate in street demonstrations.

It is clear that a second round, from Lukashenka's perspective, is simply unacceptable. It would demonstrate vulnerability and provide an opposition candidate -- most likely Milinkevich -- with a new opportunity to sway the electorate, including better access to the media.

Despite the arrests and harassments, which have encompassed all three major party leaders on the Milinkevich team--Vyachorka (Popular Front), Lyabedzka (United Civic Party), and Kalyakin (Party of Communists)--there are increasing signs that the fear factor, the main source of Lukashenka's entrenchment, has been partially overcome.

Thus while the democratic opposition will not win the 2006 election, it has made significant inroads toward undermining and weakening the Lukashenka regime. The president cannot resolve the dilemma of how best to announce the final results.

Street violence, principally in Minsk, is very likely, and the aftermath of the campaign may prove more important than the actual results of the election.

Source: Eurasia Daily Monitor

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Friday, March 17, 2006

The Orange To Win In Ukraine; Lukashenko – In Belarus, Russians Forecast

MOSCOW, Russia -- The poll held by Levada Center has revealed the Russians are attentive when it comes to elections in neighboring Belarus and Ukraine, which are slated for this and the next Sunday respectively.


Ukrainian protesters shout slogans as they hold posters reading ''Beware of the Wicked Dictator'' during a rally in front of the Belarussian embassy in Kiev March 16, 2006. Belarus holds a presidential election this Sunday, which the current President Alexander Lukashenko - accused in the West of crushing human rights - is expected to win.

Forty percent of Russians expect the ballot-boxes to be stuffed at large in Lukashenko’s favor at presidential elections in Belarus; 27 percent don’t doubt Lukashenko and opposition will honorably compete this Sunday.

The interesting point is that 25 percent of Russians would like to have a president of Lukashenko’s kind, but negative answers prevailed by 60-percent majority. Predictably, Lukashenko is most popular with older respondents (30 percent to 33 percent), but turned down by wealthy and educated Russians.

The second section of the poll related to Ukraine’s elections. The victory of Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Timoshenko’s blocs is forecasted by 24 percent of respondents, while 17 percent stake on pro-Russia’s forces represented by Viktor Yanukovich and communists.

The results signal most Russians strongly believe in administrative resource (Yushchenko will win because he is the president today) and don’t count on speedy revival of pro-Russia’s trend in the policy of Ukraine.

Source: Kommersant

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Ukraine's Parliamentary Elections Could Reshape Its Political Landscape

KIEV, Ukraine -- Voters look set to punish President Viktor Yushchenko in next weekend's parliamentary election, in a bitter twist for the Orange Revolution leader who ushered in the very reforms that are making the contest the most democratic in this ex-Soviet republic's history.


President Viktor Yushchenko

Pollsters predict the winner will be the pro-Russian Party of the Regions, led by former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych - the man whose fraud-marred run for the presidency in 2004 triggered the Orange Revolution.

Widespread disappointment in the peaceful revolution's unfulfilled promises of prosperity and an end to corruption have left Yushchenko's camp struggling even to win second place.

The resurgence of Yanukovych, whose political career looked buried just over a year and a half ago, could reshape the pro-Western politics of this nation of 47 million that stretches between the European Union and Russia.

Most analysts predict that the pragmatic Yushchenko will reach out to Yanukovych to form a coalition, since neither of their parties will get enough votes to form a majority on its own. The majority has the right to appoint the prime minister and many Cabinet members.

Proponents of such a coalition say involving Yanukovych's party in the government could help bridge Ukraine's deep regional divisions, absorb the 44 percent of voters who didn't support the Orange Revolution and improve Kyiv's rocky ties with Moscow. Critics warn it could slow Ukraine's Westward march and return power to some officials the Orange Revolution leaders had vowed to jail.

"I would put to him only one question: If this coalition is formed, what was the point of the revolution?," said former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose acrimonious split with the president last fall shattered the Orange Revolution team.

The charismatic Tymoshenko, whose rabble-rousing speeches helped spur on the protesters during the mass rallies, wants the prime minister's seat back and has focused her campaign on winning the votes of disillusioned Orange Revolution supporters. Analysts predict a strong showing on election day if she collects most of the protest vote.

Yushchenko's bloc has countered by spending much of the campaign attacking her. It blames Tymoshenko for the flood of economic ills that engulfed Ukraine in the year after Yushchenko came to power, including the plunge in GDP growth from 12 percent to 2 percent, rising prices of staple foods such as meat and sugar, and last year's re-privatization debacle that scared off foreign investors.

Asked last week to name one good thing that Tymoshenko did while in government, Yushchenko's face hardened. One second, two, three went by in silence.

"I'm composing my emotions so I can restrain them," he said finally. He couldn't name one thing.

Many Ukrainians want the two heroes of the Orange Revolution to team up again.

"All I want is for Yulia and Viktor Andriyovych (Yushchenko) to make peace and reunite," said Olha Prikhodko, 60. She had taped photographs of Tymoshenko ? an eye-catching blonde who wears her hair in a traditional, peasant's braid - and of Yushchenko and his five children on walls in her western Ukrainian home.

With that looking increasingly unlikely, analysts have taken to debating what Yanukovych's return would mean. He draws his support almost exclusively from Ukraine's industrial, Russian-speaking east.

Yanukovych has called for Russian to be made a second state language and has promised to repair ties with Moscow. He says he supports EU membership, but views membership in a trade zone with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan as an immediate priority.

"Yanukovych will pursue a much more weighted policy to Russia and the West. You never bet your whole hand on one horse," said Yanukovych's ally, businessman Alex Kiselev.

But Yushchenko would retain significant powers to shape policy. The president will still name the foreign and defense ministers; Ukraine's current foreign minister, Borys Tarasiuk, whom Russian analyst Sergei Markov accused of "hating Russia even more than he loves Ukraine," is a very influential figure and is widely expected to stay in the job.

"Regarding foreign policy, I'm sure it will not be changed," Yushchenko told journalists. "It is one thing to be in opposition, another to be responsible for forming foreign policy ... I am convinced that European-Atlantic integration is in harmony with our national interests."

Ukrainian election law prevents polls from being released in the two weeks before the election, and earlier polls varied dramatically. But most put Yanukovych's bloc in the lead with around 30 percent, followed by Yushchenko's and Tymoshenko's party neck-and-neck for second, with between 15 and 22 percent each.

The biggest threat to stability could be a failure by parliament to form a majority in the required one-month period, leaving Yushchenko the option of dissolving it and calling new elections.

Source: AP

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Ukraine Leader, Soccer Officials Solve Stadium Issue

KIEV, Ukraine -- President Viktor Yushchenko and top soccer officials have all but resolved a row over a construction site by Ukraine's main stadium which had threatened to derail Kiev's bid to co-host the 2012 European championship.


A meeting between Yushchenko and his sports minister produced agreement on a project to upgrade and modernise the stadium.

It also backed a compromise allowing construction of a nearby shopping and entertainment complex to proceed without endangering the stadium's safety norms.

"The president supported proposals on upgrading the national sports complex and agreed to allocate $240 million in investment," Sports Minister Yuri Pavlenko told reporters at a ceremony honouring Ukraine's Olympic athletes.

"This shows the president supports Ukraine's bid with Poland for Euro 2012. I have no doubt now that our bid has an excellent chance of winning."

Construction at the site was suspended earlier this week after lobbying by soccer and government officials.

World governing body FIFA had warned the Ukrainian federation it would withdraw permission for international matches to be played at the 84,000-seat Olympic stadium as the complex's proximity compromised safety and public order rules.

Oleksander Bandurko, the federation's executive director, said the site's owners had agreed to alter plans to keep within the regulations.

"The halt in construction allowed for a decision to be taken that was acceptable to all," he said. "The problem is not yet entirely solved, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

"We now know that the Olympic stadium is safe and can continue to accommodate the 84,000 spectators as it always did. We can win this competition."

The stadium, built in 1923, has undergone reconstruction several times and was used for the soccer tournament at the 1980 Moscow Olympics. It remains the focus of soccer in Ukraine and draws huge crowds at major matches.

Ukraine's joint bid with Poland was a surprise inclusion on the shortlist of candidates to hold the 2012 tournament, along with Italy and a joint entry by Hungary and Croatia.

The bid is to be presented in detail to a UEFA meeting in Budapest next week. UEFA officials are due to visit Ukraine early next month.

Source: Reuters

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Colour Revolutions Fade In Russia's Shadow

LONDON, UK -- For a man apparently assured of victory, Alexander Lukashenko is going to unusual lengths to ensure the "right" result in Sunday's presidential election in Belarus. His anticipated triumph may mark a glum turning point for pro-democracy movements in the former Soviet sphere.


Young Poles carry Belarusian and European flags during a demonstration supporting the Belarusian opposition and its candidates in the upcoming presidential election, in Warsaw, Poland

In recent days dozens of Belarus opposition activists have been arrested, European poll monitors and parliamentarians have been turned back, and independent newspapers have been denied newsprint by Russian suppliers. The pro-Moscow Minsk government has also accused the west, and Poland in particular, of seeking its overthrow.

Mr Lukashenko, first elected president in 1994, has been described as an authoritarian holdover from the former Soviet nomenklatura. "The state is us!" declared a banner headline yesterday in the government-run newspaper Sovietskaya Belorussiya, driving home the old collectivist message in a country where 80% of the economy is state-owned.

But nothing is being left to chance. "No one seriously doubts, especially not the opposition, that the election outcome will be fixed," wrote Charles Grant and Mark Leonard of the Centre for European Reform.

The likely collapse, for now, of hopes of democratic reform in Belarus coincides with a broader loss of confidence in the future of the "colour revolutions" that swept countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and Serbia in recent years.

In Belgrade reform, renewal and the open embrace of Europe remain hostage to lingering shadows of nationalism, long-nurtured notions of victimhood, and the unfinished business of the Balkan wars - notably, Milosevic's still unburied legacy and the half-hearted hunt for Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic.

In Georgia, Russian-fuelled separatism and political disputes have taken the shine off the rose. And in Kiev President Viktor Yushchenko, hero of the "orange revolution", is fighting to avoid humiliation in parliamentary elections on March 26. His party's likely nemesis is the man he accused of fraud and defeated in 2004 - Moscow's favourite, Viktor Yanukovich.

Mr Yushchenko said this week: "The opposition has no programme which can stand up in intellectual terms with that of the government." But voters appear fixated on more mundane issues these days, such as economic stagnation, unemployment and a doubling of Russian-supplied gas prices. They suspect Mr Yanukovich may do a better job of handling Moscow.

For his part, he says Ukraine was fooled by the west's "empty promises". The prospect of EU membership, never strong, had been discredited. If elected, he said, he would halt talks on Nato membership.

If a backlash is under way against the populist revolutions that shook the post-Soviet space, a much-distracted US and EU bear some blame. The benefits of "joining the west" have not proved impressive so far.

But hanging over the heads of all these countries is the increasingly baleful influence of President Vladimir Putin's Russia, says a new report by the independent US Council on Foreign Relations. "At the same time as President Bush has made democracy a goal of American foreign policy, Russia's political system is becoming steadily more authoritarian," the report said.

Regressive trends inside Russia were impacting on its neighbours, as seen in Moscow's use of oil and gas as a "foreign policy weapon" against Ukraine, and in its planned revival of a political and economic community linking Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

The Russian bear was back on the prowl, intent on regaining lost geopolitical influence, and tougher responses were required. "The US should cede no veto or undue deference to Russia over American relations with states of the Russian periphery," the report said.

"There is nothing legitimate about limiting the opportunity of neighbours ... to choose security allies or pursue democratic political transformation. Post-Soviet states that share America's approach should be able to count on greater support."

Source: Guardian Unlimited

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Kiev Reopening Door To RosUkrEnergo

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and some government authorities seem again to endorse the deeply damaging gas deals signed on January 4 and February 2 with Gazprom's shadowy offshoot RosUkrEnergo.


Yushchenko had ignored widespread criticism of those agreements, until unpublicized U.S. and EU intercessions persuaded him to shelve the deal, pending the March 26 parliamentary elections and formation of a new government that could exclude RosUkrEnergo from whatever agreements are eventually reached with Moscow.

In a March 14 news conference, however, Yushchenko again defended those deals. He argued that:

a) RosUkrEnergo would only operate on Russian territory, not in Ukraine;

b) the Russian state, not Ukraine, had designated RosUkrEnergo as the transit operator;

c) official Kyiv has appealed to the Russian government, Gazprom, and Raiffeisen Bank for help to find out who is behind RosUkrEnergo, but has not found out;

d) Kyiv is satisfied that no Ukrainian state entity is among RosUkrEnergo's owners.

The implication is that Ukraine has done what it could in this regard and the deal with RosUkrEnergo can go ahead. Minister of Foreign Affairs Borys Tarasyuk also declared in Washington that the gas deal will be implemented for lack of other options, despite its being "far from transparent" and other flaws.

Yushchenko's four arguments had long been disproved by critics and the leaked texts of the originally secret agreements:

a) RosUkrEnergo would operate within Ukraine as well, through the UkrGazEnergo joint company set up by RosUkrEnergo with Naftohaz Ukrainy, sharing Ukraine's internal distribution market;

b) a few key Ukrainian government officials worked with the Russian side to insert RosUkrEnergo into these deals;

c) official Kyiv prefers to plead ignorance or agnosticism about RosUkrEnergo and other shadowy aspects of the gas deals, ever since the presidency last September quashed the National Security Service's investigation into the matter; and

d) Kyiv is not addressing the high probability (widely reported by the Ukrainian press) that influential Ukrainian individuals with official connections may be involved with RosUkrEnergo and Gazprom.

Thus, the president's comments seem to presage an attempt to rehabilitate and reactivate these discredited agreements in the post-election period. Yushchenko had initially gone all out to advocate for this gas deal, but changed his stand suddenly on February 14, when the presidential press service announced in his name that the deal was on hold due to lack of information about RosUkrEnergo and concern about damage to Ukraine's own business reputation.

For the next 30 days, the president avoided addressing this subject publicly. His March 14 remarks fit in with ongoing moves by other Ukrainian authorities to begin implementing the gas deal while the public's attention is riveted on electoral politics.

On March 9, Ukraine's National Energy Regulatory Commission awarded a five-year license to the UkrGazEnergo closed joint-stock company to deliver gas on Ukraine's internal market. UkrGazEnergo is a joint venture of RosUkrEnergo and Naftohaz Ukrainy and was created by the secret February 4 agreement that triggered a storm of criticism when it was leaked.

Thus, Gazprom -- acting via RosUkrEnergo and UkrGazEnergo, is capturing a share of Ukraine's market and access to the internal infrastructure. The Regulatory Commission's move also seems designed to make certain that RosUkrEnergo via UkrGazEnergo enters Ukraine to stay.

In a March 14 news conference, Ukraine's Anti-Monopoly Committee chairman Oleksiy Kostusyev informally gave RosUkrEnergo a clean bill of health. Declaring, "there is nothing hidden there," Kostusyev explained. "The entire information on RosUkrEnergo is classified as confidential or for official use only, and can only be released at the request of courts or an official investigation".

This statement would seem to contradict Yushchenko's comments made that same day. Kostusyev is a candidate for parliament for the Party of Regions. However, support for RosUkrEnergo and UkrGazEnergo by a handful of strategically placed officials clearly cuts across partisan lines, given the fact that Ivchenko is Yushchenko's choice for Naftohaz chief and his political ally in the Our Ukraine bloc.

Taken together, these moves seem designed to keep the January 4 and February 2 agreements alive, implement at least some of their provisions, and cement RosUkrEnergo's role as intermediary. If this is done, Kyiv would severely weaken its case for dropping out of that agreement after the election.

Source: Eurasia Daily Monitor

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Thursday, March 16, 2006

Celebrity Couple Opens Up

KIEV, Ukraine -- A phone call from Eugenia Tymoshenko warns that she and her British husband Sean Carr will be late for a lunch-time interview with the Post at O'Brien's - an Irish pub near Kyiv's main square and one of the couple's favorite hang-out spots in the city.


Mom Yulia Tymoshenko (L), Sean Carr (C) and Eugenia Tymoshenko (R)

When they finally arrive half an hour later, Eugenia, the daughter of firebrand Ukrainian politician Yulia Tymoshenko, is wearing an elegant grey jacket over a white glamour blouse and dark jeans. Sean has on what looks like his every day outfit: blue jeans, a black t-shirt and a biker jacket over a leather vest.

Carr gets notably nervous at the sight of the camera, and Eugenia is a bit strained at first, too: We are not accustomed to being public people yet, they would explain later in the interview.

The couple found themselves in the spotlight of world media just over a year ago, when Eugenia, twenty-five years old at the time, announced that she would marry Carr, a thirty-six-year-old rocker and owner of a small chain of shoe repair shops from Leeds, England.

This was 2005, just after Ukraine?s Orange Revolution, in which Yulia Tymoshenko rose to international status as a modern-day Evita.

The wedding was held last October, at Kyiv's ancient Vydubytsky monastery. It was covered by major international media, including Britain's The Times, which featured the newlyweds on the paper's front page.

But Eugenia and Sean have since shied away from curious journalists, sending a message that they are not flattered by the attention.

"It's not like we have been avoiding journalists," explains Sean softly, with his middle-class English manners, which instantly destroy the intimidating first impression given off by his sturdy build, pierced ear and long hair bound in a pony tail.

"Yes, Zhenya [the Russian diminutive for Eugenia] has got a famous mom, but we are not superheroes, and we have not done anything big yet to give interviews," he says, with Eugenia echoing him.

"I don't understand why we should be of such interest to the public. We are not doing anything outstanding. That's why I don?t really feel comfortable talking to journalists," she says in a polished British accent.

The daughter of one of Ukraine's most powerful politicians, who was named by Forbes magazine as the third most influential woman in the world, went to school in England since the age of 14. Last year, Eugenia last year graduated from the London School of Economics with a degree in Politics and Economics.

The couple's Ukrainian life

Eugenia and Sean met in spring 2004 at a resort in Egypt. Five months later they were in Ukraine, where they currently live. However, the couple's long-term plans have apparently not been decided.

"At the moment, there is no time to concentrate on concrete things, as Sean has to adapt to Ukrainian life and see what he could do here," explains Eugenia, who is considered by many as heir to her mother's reputed fortune, made during the Dnipropetrovsk native's gas-trading days in the later 1990s. Eugenia's mother, however, has denied being a millionaire, most recently during a television appearance on March 13.

The career plans of Tymoshenko's daughter are also a bit sketchy.

"Ultimately, I would like to do something with exhibiting Ukrainian art," she says casually.

What both Zhenya and Carr are more talkative and enthusiastic about is Carr's musical achievements in Ukraine.

"I've always liked heavy music and the image of a rocker or a biker. And when I got to know Sean, I liked them even more," Eugenia confesses. It was she who inspired Sean to form a band in Ukraine and revive his rocker past.

Sean then talked an old band buddy into coming to Ukraine, and they put together an album.

Since then, Eugenia has been the greatest supporter of Death Valley Screamers, in which Sean is the lead singer. Last month, the band did a tour of Eastern Ukraine. Sean describes the people's reaction as 'overwhelming.'

"We wanted to take on the band, but I never expected anything like this. It was absolutely crazy," says Sean about the warm welcome that Death Valley Screamers received during the tour, his eyes sparkling with excitement.

It's this kind of adrenaline that has helped the northern Englishman "adjust to a totally different culture." Regular rehearsals and socializing with Ukrainian bikers has made the transition easier.

"I've met some fantastic guys here," says Sean, who used to attend biker gatherings back home. In Ukraine, Sean didn't waste much time contacting the organizers of similar events, his young wife points out.

And even though Carr does not speak either Russian or Ukrainian and goes back to England once every six weeks to visit his 10-year old-daughter from a previous relationship, Sean already calls Ukraine 'home.'

Eugenia, too, insists that she would not like to go back to London, despite the fact that the underdeveloped credit card service in Kyiv shops drives her crazy.

"I am much happier here, in Ukraine, than I was in London; I had never felt at home there," she says.

Sean has reconciled himself to a long-term stay in Ukraine, but he says he does not plan on getting Ukrainian citizenship, contradicting statements made earlier this year, including a statement made on March 13, by his mother-in-law that he would.

"In Ukraine, you cannot have a dual citizenship, and giving up a British passport, which gives so much freedom to go places you want to go, is not the smartest thing to do," says Eugenia, adding that she has no other citizenship other than Ukrainian.

Every day life

Eugenia and Sean say they lead a quiet life in the Ukrainian capital, when they are not traveling to other countries - something they like doing quite often.

"We don't go out much in Kyiv," says Eugenia, her hand in Sean's.

"We come here [to O'Brien's], Art club 44, and other places with live music. We also frequent the sports bar at River Palace, because we are friends with the manager of the place," she says.

When not busy rehearsing in the studios and if it's warm, the couple can also be seen cruising the streets of Kyiv on Sean's Harley Davidson, which he brought from England. Otherwise, Eugenia and Sean like spending time at their house outside of Kyiv, just several miles away from the home of Eugenia's famous mother Yulia. Eugenia, who declined to discuss any business interests or assets she may have, said the home was given to them by relatives.

They watch their favorite cartoons on DVD, or Eugenia cooks to her husband's delight. Sean says his wife cooks the best solyanka [Ukrainian meat soup] and blinchiki [Russian pancakes] he's ever tried.

"And she does absolutely cracking rabbit in olives," exclaims the Englishman.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Ukrainian TV Channel To Span Reach Overseas

KIEV, Ukraine -- To fill the lack of Ukrainian-language programming available to overseas subscribers, Ukrainian television Channel 1+1 is launching its international version.


At 7 a.m. New York time on March 14, the channel’s subsidiary, 1+1 International, launched broadcasting in the United States and Canada for subscribers of Direct TV and GlobeCast DTH satellite television providers. The channel said it will broadcast news, Ukrainian films, shows and archive feature programs produced by Channel 1+1.

Initially, it will be broadcast in a testing regime free of charge. In about one month the full-fledged 24-hour version will be available, albeit to subscribers only.

The channel’s primary target audience will be Ukrainian Diaspora who want to keep in tune with events back in Ukraine.

GlobeCast currently does not offer any Ukrainian channels, while Direct TV lists Ukrainian music channel M1 in their selection of Russian channels. 1+1 is one of Ukraine’s top two television channels in terms of popularity. 1+1 and Inter channel both control nearly 40 percent of the market.

Anatoliy Yerema, 1+1 International’s general producer, said 1+1 has contemplated the idea of going international for quite a while, adding that competing internationally with Inter has become a priority.

“Just as in Ukraine we compete with Inter, we want to compete with Inter+,” said Yerema, referring to the international version of their chief Ukrainian competitor launched back in 2003, and now available worldwide via satellite, or through cable operators.

The programs produced by its parent channel Inter comprise about 35 percent of Inter+ airtime, while the rest is supplied by more than 150 Ukrainian television companies and production studios. As its producer Fedir Terpilovsky says the channel is now holding talks to launch Inter+ with “one of the major DTH providers in the US.”

1+1 International’s Yerema says expansion overseas would be just the starting point with European countries that have a large Ukrainian diaspora coming next.

GlobeCast spokesperson Robert Marking would not disclose the number of subscribers to his company, which provides DTH satellite television services in North America. Marking said, however, that his company is the largest distributor of international television in the region. A subsidiary of France Telecom, GlobeCast currently offers 160 TV and radio channels from 40 countries.

The Ukraine feel

The channel’s studio is located in a building on Kyiv’s central Khreshchatyk Street, with its windows overlooking Independence Square. During the testing stage, live feeds from the square will be shown during breaks in broadcasting.

“Just so one could see what people are walking down the street,” said Yerema, who believes the channel’s mission would not be to bring ethnic Ukrainians back to their homeland, but to give them a feel for what’s going on in Ukraine.

Coincidence or not, the channel’s launch is taking place at the peak of this year’s parliamentary campaign, with the channel planning a nearly 36-hour marathon show on the day and night of the March 26 elections that would last up to the midnight of March 28 – to be shown by both Channel 1+1 and its international version.

Yerema said the new channel will be initially working off the resources provided by the flagship Channel 1+1; budgeting decisions will be made once the free testing period is over and the channel starts its regular broadcasts.

Being a pay-TV channel, 1+1 International will not be relying on advertising for its revenues, unlike its parent channel, which earned $72 million in revenues in 2005 – about 30 percent more than the year before.

Serhiy Demyanchuk, Channel 1+1’s marketing director, said that the new channel’s revenues will come from subscription fees that the channel and the satellite providers will split, although the final arrangements have not yet been finalized. He adds that since the channel would extensively be using the archive programming by Channel 1+1 and Ukrainian films that are in public domain, the subscription fees alone will be enough to make the channel profitable.

Demyancuk said he expected the number of subscribers to reach 10,000 by fall.

Along with being available to cable and prospectively DTH subscribers, Inter+, unlike 1+1 International is also available free of charge via a satellite. Terpilovsky said the channel has no plans to encode its signal. He adds that the revenues the channel receives from advertising – mainly by Ukrainian companies – and from license payments are “more than enough” to have the channel running.

Hanya Krill, chief operating officer of New York-based Brama, a popular North American web portal dedicated to Ukraine, said that there is demand for Ukrainian television channels, which are currently almost non-existent, particularly in her home area of New York.

High costs have doomed to failure all previous attempts to launch such a service. Krill said that $800 satellite fees undercut a recent attempt to launch Ukrainian programming.

1+1 International’s deal with Direct TV and GlobeCast might prove successful, she said, adding that an extra international channel with these operators typically costs around $15 per month.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Lukashenko Loosing Grip Over Belarus

MINSK, Belarus -- Starting March 14, Belarusian polling stations will be open for five days of so-called early voting, apparently for those Belarusians who would otherwise have difficulty voting for the president of their country on election day itself – Sunday, March 19.


Europe's last dictator Lukashenko

The choice for Belarusians will be between the “stability and security” being offered by Alexander Lukashenko and the “freedom, truth and justice” being proposed by his main challenger, Alexander Milinkevich.

Unprecedented in Europe, the 5+1 day voting is only one of the many strange, but effective tricks that Lukashenko is using to keep his post-Soviet Belarus running and under his control.

But Lukashenko will have to come up with many more tricks if he wants to stay in power, since 2006 may prove to be a defining year for Belarus, and for Lukashenko personally. The death of Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic has certainly not added anything positive to the current mood of Alexander Lukashenko and his thinking about the future.

For the last 12 years, Lukashenko has kept an iron grip on Belarus, succeeding in keeping the country isolated from the rest of the world and unchanged.

The country’s economic growth, fueled by unconditional support from Russia and growing trade relations with the European Union, as well as the events that transpired in Ukraine last year, have allowed Lukashenko to wield his usual tools of control over society – potentially jeopardized material interests and fear. Lukashenko has been preparing carefully for yet another “elegant victory.”

Lukashenko’s team has invited international election observers, including observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. In order to make these elections look fair, he has allowed three other candidates for the presidency beside himself: Alexander Milinkevich, Alexander Kozulin and Sergei Gaidukevich. But neither has a fair chance.

The campaigns of some true challengers such as Milinkevich are systematically tampered with; other challengers are seen as technical candidates whose purpose is to divide up the oppositionist vote. Dividing up the oppositionist vote is key, as polls suggest Lukashenko has just over 50 percent support. Getting more than 50 percent in the first round is key to Lukashenko, who fears facing a true oppositionist in a second round runoff vote.

Lukashenko may never understand the spirit of Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, but he certainly understands its consequences.

For weeks now law enforcement agencies have been hunting for active members of the true Belarusian opposition. Every opposition meeting with voters ends with arrests. Young people are arrested at their homes and detained for hooliganism.

Opposition leaders, former lawmakers and ordinary opponents of the current regime, and even Ukrainian citizens, have also been sentenced to temporary prison terms or kicked out of the country to make sure that they won’t be around for the elections.

It is clear that Lukashenko’s main focus is not campaigning for re-election, but decreasing the mood of protest in the country. However, this also shows that the regime has a real concern about an unexpected eruption of protests. According to observers, Lukashenko has never seemed as afraid as he is today. The chances that massive street side protests could erupt are higher than any time during his iron fisted rule.

Lukashenko certainly has many reasons to feel threatened as internal and external support seems to be veering out of his control.

Criticism from the West of his dictatorship rule and poor human rights record are higher than ever. But more troubling to him is the fact that traditionally strong support for his regime in neighboring Russia is dissipating, in line with his falling popularity on his home turf.

The European Union, along with the United States, has been developing a more thought-out position toward the current regime in Belarus, which excludes legitimizing a third Lukashenko term, but includes – at least – targeted sanctions.

Following the elections, Russia may want to hold Lukashenko to his promises to give way to a new union with Russia, or yield the northern neighbor more control over strategic Belarusian assets such as energy pipelines.

Yielding control over Belarus’s lucrative energy assets could pose doom to Lukashenko’s grip on power. Some say it is unlikely that he would allow for these assets to be privatized or handed over, which likely explains why Kremlin officials are betting less on him now than they did in the past.

An ever more desperate Lukashenko is unlikely to get away with violations and abuses which kept him in power in the past. For one, the media attention on the plight for democracy and freedom in Belarus is rising, largely thanks to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine which made headlines for weeks in 2004, drawing attention to the region like never before.

True, the various opposition candidates do not appear to have more voter support than Lukashenko for now. But their popularity inside Belarus is rising as support for Lukashenko falls.

Lukashenko finds himself cornered and his time is winding down.

Some expect Lukashenko to once again fudge the vote for the first vote ensuring he has near 70 percent voter support.

But this is a big risk, as dwindling support for him and rising oppositionist sentiment could spark massive protests that could trigger his ouster, or further fuel the oppositionist movement in the country.

Lukashenko will likely declare his “elegant victory” after the first round of the elections, be it through a fraudulent exaggerated poll or a slim majority. With growing support for the opposition, he cannot afford to face a second round.

It may be too late to win the struggle for democratic forces on March 19, but a new political movement capable of becoming Lukashenko’s alternative has, nevertheless, emerged. If Lukashenko decides to announce the official results of the vote with a margin of victory in his favor that is too large, he may loose control over Belarusian society.

Even if he slips through the polls with a slim victory in the first round, oppositionists will grow more confident as will voters who favor them but fear the consequences of challenging the regime.

This election is likely the first step toward a change of the regime.

Source: Kyiv Post

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Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Ukraine's Yushchenko On Offensive Ahead Of Poll

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko said on Tuesday opposition parties offered no credible alternative as he attempted to claw back support before March 26 polls.


Viktor Yushchenko at Tuesday's press conference

Yushchenko was brought to power on a wave of mass protests in the 2004 "Orange Revolution", but is now viewed with indifference by many voters disillusioned by splits in his camp.

"The opposition has no program which can stand up in intellectual terms with that of the government," Yushchenko said during a two-hour news conference broadcast live on television.

The pro-Russian Regions Party of Viktor Yanukovich, defeated in the turbulent 2004 presidential race, leads in opinion polls.

The Our Ukraine party, loyal to the president, lies a distant second among more than 40 parties and pro-Western Yushchenko acknowledged his allies would have to form a coalition to stay in government.

Under new constitutional arrangements, the president will have greatly reduced powers and the prime minister will be chosen by the party or coalition with a majority in parliament.

Yushchenko, and his prime minister who heads the Our Ukraine party list, have stressed Ukraine's improved ties with the West along with improved public sector wages, pensions and benefits.

ECONOMIC WOES

Ukraine has in the past year won coveted "market economy" status from the European Union and the United States, overseen a record privatization of a big steel mill and moved closer to membership of the World Trade Organization.

But heady talk when Yushchenko came to power about moving quickly toward EU membership has been quietly forgotten.

Economic growth has ground to a virtual standstill and inflation is rising. Relations with Russia have soured and prices for Russian natural gas have nearly doubled.

With Our Ukraine in second place -- and facing a challenge from Yulia Tymoshenko, his former Orange Revolution ally turned rival -- the president was prepared for post-election talks.

"It is in the interests of our country, our nation, to hold negotiations that will lead to a consolidation of political forces," Yushchenko said.

Yushchenko hoped groups that underpinned the Orange Revolution could join forces. He said: "other forces that were not participants can also take part."

But he declined comment for now on suggestions of a "grand coalition" with Yanukovich, whom he fought so bitterly in 2004.

Opinion polls show no single party will be strong enough to govern alone. The prospect of instability has made investors uneasy and the central bank routinely intervenes to prop the hryvnia currency.

Tymoshenko's dismissal as prime minister last September after months of infighting between two government camps -- each accusing the other of corruption -- left many supporters of the revolution deeply disillusioned with liberal reformers.

Source: Reuters

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Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Chernobyl: A Poisonous Legacy

LONDON, UK -- After two decades, the legacy of the Chernobyl disaster is still casting its poisonous shadow over Britain's countryside. The Department of Health has admitted that more than 200,000 sheep are grazing on land contaminated by fallout from the explosion at the Ukrainian nuclear plant 1,500 miles away.


Emergency orders still apply to 355 Welsh farms, 11 in Scotland and nine in England as a result of the catastrophe in April 1986.

The revelation - in a Commons written answer to the Labour MP Gordon Prentice - comes as Mr Blair prepares to make the case for nuclear power in a forthcoming government Energy Review. The Prime Minister argues that nuclear energy would allow the UK to achieve twin objectives of cutting C02 emissions and reducing dependency on imported natural gas supplies.

But, just last week a damning report from the Government's own advisory board on sustainable development identified five major disadvantages to any planned renewal of Britain's nuclear power programme, including the threat of terrorist attack and the danger of radiation exposure.

The longevity of the "Chernobyl effect" in a region generation of nuclear power stations, and going through a consultation exercise to try to convince the public that this is a safe form of electricity generation, we shouldn't overlook the terrible consequences if something does go wrong,

"No one would now build a reactor as unsafe as those at Chernobyl, which were jerry built. Even so, I think a lot of people will be shocked to know that, as we approach the 20th anniversary of Chernobyl, hundreds of farming families are still living with the fallout."

Jean McSorley, Greenpeace's senior adviser on nuclear energy said: "Chernobyl was the worst nuclear accident the world has ever seen but it is by no means the worst that could happen. In Cumbria, where I come from, people who are old enough to remember still talk about it.

It's quite moving to hear the stress that farming families were put through. I think the British public that all this distance from Chernobyl, 20 years later, so many families are still living with its impact day to day."

The Chernobyl disaster turned public opinion in Britain against civil nuclear power overnight. The land still poisoned by Chernobyl's radioactivity lies all along the Welsh hills between Bangor and Bala, much of it in the Snowdonia National park. There is also a large triangle of contaminated land in Cumbria, south of Buttermere - though the number of farms affected is smaller than in Wales.

Some of the Scottish hills are also still affected. No sheep can be moved out of any of these areas without a special licence, under Emergency Orders imposed in 1986. Sheep that have higher than the permitted level of radiation have to be marked with a special dye that does not wash off in the rain, and have to spend months grazing on uncontaminated grass before they are passed as fit to go into the food chain.

A National Farmers' Union spokesman said: "The paramount concern has to be the safety of the consumer, and consumer confidence in the meat supply, so exceptional care has to be taken to make sure no contaminated meat goes into the food chain."

Most of Britain's nuclear power stations have either ceased to produce electricity, or are nearing the end of their active life. The last is due for closure in 2035. The Government is now conducting an energy review, to be published in June, which is expected to announce a new nuclear programme.

Tony Blair signalled his support for the industry in a speech to Labour's conference last autumn, when he warned Britain is too reliant on "unstable" regimes for its energy supplies, and singled out nuclear power as an alternative.

But resistance to the idea has been growing, particularly with the publication last week of the report by the government's Sustainable Development Commission. The Commons Environmental Audit Committee will also report later this month. According to a committee member, their findings are expected to be "measured" but "certainly won't put a strong case for nuclear power".

On 23 March, leading specialists will hold a conference in London on the long term impact of Chernobyl. At the end of the month, the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority will issue a revised figure for the cost of cleaning up the sites of disused publicly owned nuclear plants.

Their figure is expected to be substantially higher than their original estimate which was published last year, of £56bn.

David Ellwood, 49, farmer: 'Nobody can tell us when the radiation will pass'

David Ellwood has 700 sheep on his farm in Ulpha, near Broughton-in-Furness. His wife, Heather, 50, helps out on Baskell Farm, and they have four children.

"I remember the Chernobyl disaster 20 years ago. We were lambing in April and it was raining like hell. We got a letter from the ministry suggesting it would last about three weeks, but they were only guessing - it could go on for another 20 years.

"Every time we take sheep to auction, we must phone Defra, who check they are clear from contamination [from radioactive caesium]. They give us £1.30 for every sheep they monitor. We take them off the fell and put them in the fields for a couple of weeks before selling them, so readings are usually low. But the odd one gets a high reading if it comes straight in off the fell, and has to be slaughtered.

"Defra are here four or five times a year which is a hassle. At shearing time in July they monitor everything. If we are taking Cheviots to auction, we have to get them into a pen to take readings, which makes them mucky and bad for selling.

Now we try to get them monitored three or four days before," said Mr Ellwood, 49. "We have been on this farm for 16 years, and owned the ground surrounding it before that, so have always been affected by Chernobyl. There is a lot of contaminated peat on our fell, so when the grass comes up in the summer that gets contaminated too. If our fell were rocky, I don't think it would be such a problem.

"I could get angry, but it is pointless, there is not a damn thing we can do and nobody seems to know when it will pass. I would be worried if more power stations were built. We were 1,500 miles from Chernobyl and still feel the effects."

Edwin Noble, 45, sheep farmer: 'I had no idea it could affect us so far away'

Edwin Noble and his family, who run a 2,500- acre farm close to Mount Snowden, live under emergency restrictions that they were told would apply for 30 days, but which are likely to continue for years.

Mr Noble, 45, was in his early twenties when he took charge of the family farm. On the night of 2 May 1986, he was disturbed by torrential rain and feared the river would burst its banks. What he did not know was that the radiation cloud from Chernobyl was passing invisibly overhead. The rain left huge deposits of radioceasium in the peaty soil, which is no direct threat to humans but works itself into the grass, contaminating his sheep.

"I had heard about Chernobyl on the news, but had no idea at all that [it] could affect us so far away," he said. "It's something we have had to live with ever since.

"Every time we move a sheep or lamb off our land it has got to be scanned. If it fails the monitoring, it ... cannot be sold. If you can get the sheep or lamb off the contaminated land, then the radiation comes out of them fairly quickly, but the whole of our farm is affected, so we rent grazing land 20 miles away.

It means you constantly have to think ahead. If the lamb is fattened and ready to go to market, you can't have it sitting in a pen waiting to be monitored because it loses weight, so you've got to get the monitoring done ahead of time. When the market is volatile, it has cost us a sale.

"The experience has made me very opposed to nuclear power. It's not so much the inconvenience for farmers like us - but what if the explosion had been at the plant near here, at Trawfynydd? It doesn't seem worth the risk," he said.

Source: Independent Online

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Ukraine Parliamentary Elections Atrracting Many Candidates With Shady Pasts

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ten have criminal records, 37 are under criminal investigation, and 41 await trial. All have been candidates in Ukraine's March 26 parliamentary elections.


Volodymyr Stretovych

Critics call the collection of shady characters running in the ballot a disgrace - and a sign of how little has changed in this ex-Soviet republic despite the high hopes and lofty promises of the 2004 Orange Revolution, when hundreds of thousands rallied under the slogan "Criminals in Jail."

"If you steal a hen or sack of grain from your neighbor, you go to jail, but if you steal a million you end up in parliament," lamented Volodymyr Stretovych, who heads the parliamentary committee against organized crime.

Others counter that the very fact voters are now hearing about a candidate's unsavory past is a breakthrough compared to the lengths the government went in 2004 to hide and then deny the criminal record, which was later wiped clean, of then-presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych.

The practice of seeking immunity from prosecution by taking up a parliamentary seat had become so standard in post-Soviet Ukraine that most people didn't pay any attention.

But that changed after the Orange Revolution and President Viktor Yushchenko's promise to clean up dirty politics.

Ukrainian Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, whose office is responsible for checking candidate lists to find those with criminal records, went public with the findings last month.

He said his office has no questions about the candidates of only 11 out of the 45 parties taking part in the election. Among the parties with some questionable candidates are Yushchenko's party and the one led by former Orange Revolution heroine Yulia Tymoshenko.

But Lutsenko's decision to single out opposition parties for stronger criticism has drawn charges of politicking, particularly after he declared that 25 percent of the Yanukovych party list are "my clients" - a tongue-in-cheek reference to people of interest to the police. He did not back up his allegations.

"Lutsenko is just making many groundless accusations as he himself campaigns," said Yanukovych's ally, Taras Chornovil. Natalia Vytrenko, leader of the People's Opposition party, sued the interior minister after he said that two candidates on her party list were wanted by Interpol.

She won. A Kiev court barred the minister from discussing personal and political issues regarding her party candidates, though the court didn't dismiss the actual allegation. Lutsenko has appealed the decision, insisting that he has a right to inform society about who is running.

Some politicians say they have been unfairly snared in the movement to expose alleged criminal candidates. Andriy Shkil, an ally of Tymoshenko, acknowledged his name is on the list _ but it's for a public disorder case he calls politically charged since it was opened in 2001 during a mass protest against then-President Leonid Kuchma.

Ukraine's Central Election Commission said that according to Ukrainian law, anyone with a criminal record can't run for parliament. Those with cases pending are not affected.

Yaroslav Davydovych said eight of the 10 candidates with criminal records identified by the Interior Ministry have been struck off the ballot. The other two are in the process of being removed.

Most of the 37 criminal investigations allegedly concern corruption and economics crimes, but exact details haven't been made public. Many Ukrainians believe that the revelations in 2004 about Yanukovych's earlier convictions helped swing support to Yushchenko - and gave political parties the impetus to pursue their rivals' buried pasts.

Yanukovych was sentenced to three years in prison for robbery and assault in 1967, at age 17, but was released because he was a juvenile. The conviction was annulled when the alleged victim withdrew his statement. In 1970, Yanukovych was sentenced to two years in prison for an assault and battery, but again the alleged victim withdrew testimony and the case was killed.

Yevhen Poberezhniy, a member of the Ukraine's Voters advocacy group, defended the drive to release as much information as possible, saying Ukrainians have a right to know all they can about people for whom they are voting. "Parties bear responsibility before voters for the criminal past of people in their lists," he said.

Source: AP

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Keeping Democracy Alive In Ukraine

WASHINGTON, DC -- He was one of the leaders of Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution, and - by his own account - the first to "pitch a tent" in Kiev's central square in 2000 in opposition to the Soviet-era government.


Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko

But now as a system insider, Ukraine Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko is discovering firsthand the hard work of building a new democracy. In Washington recently to advance US-Ukraine cooperation on justice and international crime, the youthful Mr. Lutsenko says he's learned that creating a clean and fair national police force is one of the most important determinants in a young democracy's success.

And stepping back to view the press for glasnost in the Middle East, the appointee of Ukraine President Viktor Yuschenko has some sobering words for the Bush administration's democratization enthusiasts.

"I would not like to be the adviser to the US foreign policy on the Middle East," he says, "for one thing because I have enough to be preoccupied with in Ukraine." But he says any country must have the "spark" inside if freedom's fire is to catch and not burn out.

"The support from outside is important - we learned that in the cold days in the Maidan [Kiev's central square] in the revolution," Lutsenko says. "But to get nine people [out of 10] to join in democracy's success, you must first have the one of their own so they know they are not alone."

Ukraine's democratization, which became the focus of much of the world in late 2004 with the eventually successful election of the pro-democracy (and West-favored) Mr. Yuschenko, will command international attention again with its March 26 parliamentary elections.

Observers say the polls, which will pit Yuschenko's pro-reform, pro-Western forces against the establishment and Moscow-favoring forces of former prime minister Viktor Yanukovych, will help determine whether Ukraine remains on its pro-West path.

The year following Yuschenko's successful campaign - in which he was poisoned nearly to death, allegedly by pro-old-line forces - has been a rocky one for Ukraine and its democratization. In September the prime minister and key figure in the Orange Revolution, Yuliya Tymoshenko, was dismissed. Winter saw the battle with Russia over natural gas prices, and early this year the parliament gave the new prime minister a vote of no confidence, essentially sacking the government and prompting the March elections.

In a new report, Freedom House says the rough year has left Ukrainians ambiguous about democratization and disappointed in their new leadership. And although the pro-democracy organization now lists Ukraine as "free" in its annual survey of world freedom - it previously listed the former Soviet satellite as "partly free" - it also sounds alarms over the public's drift over the past year.

A recent survey of Ukrainians commissioned by Freedom House finds a high degree of pessimism about the country's politicians, with 2 of 3 saying the country is headed in the wrong direction, and little interest in or knowledge of new laws that will govern the March elections.

"Recent events in Ukraine confirm that the transition to a more democratic society is extremely difficult and that the campaign for the parliamentary elections will be highly charged and competitive," saidFreedom House executive director Jennifer Windsor in a commentary on the survey. The poll's findings, she added, "underscore the importance of further engaging citizens and ensuring they understand and remain committed to the ongoing democratization process."

The sunny Lutsenko, who earned a reputation as an optimistic jokester during the frigid 2004 pro-democracy vigil, says he understands if there is fatigue with political tumult. "To be frank, we are tired of passing new exams every year," he says, referring to repeated elections.

But he agrees that the public must be engaged, and says the best way he can help to encourage that as interior minister is by reforming the national police. "People are feeling more like they are safe at home and on the street, but they also feel they can... come to us and report problems or suggest things, so that means there is more trust."

Ukraine's first civilian interior minister, Lutsenko rattles off statistics to demonstrate how crime is down over the last year - and to underscore his drive to rid the national police of corruption. He has fired 2,500 police, while 1,200 ministry officials are facing criminal charges - ranging from bribery to fraud and kidnapping. The state has been losing billions of dollars a year to corruption, he says.

"I think we are succeeding in building a new image for the national police," he says. Yet a concern for image does not prompt him to shy away when asked about human trafficking, an issue that rates high with US officials and rights groups dealing with Ukraine. "We know there have been and are a great number of Ukrainian women and even children sold into sexual slavery," Lutsenko says.

But recent revelations of a case where police officers joined with criminal organizations to sell children from small border towns is prompting Ukrainians to act on the issue, as is a new ministry office focused on human trafficking, created last year at the US ambassador's recommendation.

Lutsenko says one key to addressing that problem will be getting tighter control of Ukraine's borders, something that requires cooperation from neighbors. To that end, he's hoping for a "trilateral" meeting in May of Ukraine, Russia, and the US.

By then, the March elections will have delivered a fresh reading of Ukraine's political mood, and Lutsenko could find himself in different circumstances - even a different post (though presumably not pitching a protest tent again in Maidan. Surveys regularly show him to be among the five most popular political leaders, though Ukrainian bloggers say he appears to have retreated from the limelight).

But come what may, tilt East or West, Lutsenko says he is confident democratization will continue. "Ukraine" he says, "has passed the point of no return from which it could ever fall back."

Source: Christian Science Monitor

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Monday, March 13, 2006

Russian State-Controlled TV Revives Allegation Of Secret CIA Prison In Ukraine

MOSCOW, Russia -- Russian state television revived an allegation that Ukraine hosted a secret CIA prison for terrorist suspects, a move Kyiv allegedly made to prove its loyalty to the United States. Ukrainian officials denied the report.


The alleged prison was located in a former nuclear weapons storage base in a military garrison in the Kyiv region, an investigative reporter for Rossiya television said in a broadcast late Sunday. He said the prisoners were probably transferred to Ukraine from Poland and Romania.

"In the opinion of many foreign experts, Ukraine served as a buffer," the reporter, Arkady Mamontov, said. "When information about the location of secret prisons on the territory of East European states, first of all Poland, came out and the scandal started, they remembered the Ukrainian variant."

The Russian state television allegations come just two weeks before Ukraine's parliamentary elections, in which one of the top issues will be whether Kyiv's top foreign policy priority should be Russia or the West. President Viktor Yushchenko aspires for Ukraine to join NATO. The party that is currently ahead in the polls, led by former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, favors closer ties with Moscow.

Ukrainian officials have vehemently denied the allegation of a secret prison, which were first printed in a Swiss newspaper in January.

"It is nonsense," Ukrainian State Security agency spokeswoman Maryna Ostapenko said Monday. "We have already said more than once that these allegations don't correspond to reality."

She said that when the allegation first emerged, "we checked into it."

Defense Ministry spokesman Andriy Lysenko said only Ukraine's president or defense minister could decide to establish such a facility, "and no such decision has been made."

"Such a prison never existed, does not exist and probably will not exist in Ukraine," Lysenko said.

Mamontov last made a splash in Russia with his report on British spies allegedly sending and receiving intelligence through transmitters hidden in a rock in a Moscow park and funding non-governmental organizations. The footage for that broadcast came from Russia's intelligence service.

Mamontov did not divulge his sources for the Ukraine prison report, saying only that he got most of his information "practically from a firsthand source." He also spoke with an employee of a company that performed a renovation at the base and with soldiers who described underground storehouses.

The allegations of secret CIA prisons in Europe were first reported by The Washington Post in November. The New York-based Human Rights Watch group identified Romania and Poland as possible hosts of secret U.S.-run detention facilities; both denied involvement. Clandestine detention centers and secret flights to countries where suspects could face torture would violate European human rights treaties.

Source: AP

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Yanukovych Party Keeps The Pace In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- Party of Regions (PR) would become the top political organization in Ukraine’s Supreme Council, according to a poll by the Taras Shevchenko Political and Sociological Studies Institute.

Former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych

26 per cent of respondents would support the party led by former prime minister Viktor Yanukovych in this month’s parliamentary election.

The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc—which includes the Batkivshchina (Fatherland) Party of former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko—is second with 22 per cent, followed by the People’s Union-Our Ukraine (NS-NU) coalition of current president Viktor Yushchenko with 16.7 per cent, the Popular Bloc My (We) of speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn and the Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU) with 6.3 per cent each, and the Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU) with 4.9 per cent.

Ukrainian voters are set to renew their legislative branch on Mar. 26. In the 2002 ballot, Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine (NU) bloc received 23.6 per cent of the vote and elected 112 members to the 450-seat legislative branch. Parties require at least three per cent of the vote to qualify for proportional representation seats in the Supreme Council.

Yushchenko won the December 2004 presidential election, with 51.99 per cent of the vote in an unprecedented third round against Yanukovych. Last September, Yushchenko sacked his entire cabinet, substituting Tymoshenko with Dnipropetrovsk governor Yuri Yekhanurov.

On Mar. 4, Yanukovych accused the government of planning a fraudulent election, declaring, "The orange team can only remain in power through massive falsifications, and this is what they are doing." NS-NU official Borys Bespaly categorized Yanukovych’s accusations as a "loser’s poor fantasy" and "nothing but an attempt to attract attention."

For the first time, the members of the Supreme Council—and not the president—will name the country’s prime minister. 31.2 per cent of respondents say they would prefer Tymoshenko in the position. Yanukovych is second with 26.1 per cent, followed by Yekhanurov with 5.3 per cent, SPU leader Oleksandr Moroz with 4.1 per cent, and Lytvyn with 3.3 per cent

Polling Data

Which party would you vote for in the next parliamentary election?

Party of Regions (PR) - 26.0%

Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc - 22.0%

People’s Union-Our Ukraine (NS-NU) - 16.7%

Popular Bloc My (We) - 6.3%

Socialist Party of Ukraine (SPU) - 6.3%

Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU) - 4.9%

Nataliya Vitrenko "People’s Opposition" - 2.6%

Civil Coalition Pora-PRP - 2.1%

Oppositional bloc "Not Yes!" - 1.7%

Who would you prefer as prime minister?

Yulia Tymoshenko - 31.2%

Viktor Yanukovych - 26.1%

Yuri Yekhanurov - 5.3%

Oleksandr Moroz - 4.1%

Volodymyr Lytvyn - 3.3%

Pollster: Taras Shevchenko Political and Sociological Studies Institute
Methodology: Interviews with 2,017 Ukrainian adults, conducted from Feb. 27 to Mar. 1, 2006. No margin of error was provided.

Source: Angus Reid

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Former Heavyweight Champ Seeks New Life As Mayor Of Kiev

KIEV, Ukraine -- The former heavyweight boxing champion climbed nimbly onto the back of a pickup truck as the crowd roared his name. Vitali Klitschko smiled shyly and took a deep breath.

Former heavyweight boxing champion Vitali Klitschko

In this fight, Klitschko is the underdog - a position he's not used to.

Klitschko is running for mayor of Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, in a contest that is about housing and garbage collection on the outside, but is also highly personal, and closely bound up in the Orange Revolution, Ukraine's 2004 leap into full democracy.

The mayor whose job he wants is a close friend of his, and he is also running for Parliament in national elections on March 26, the same day as the mayoral race, heading the candidate list of a new anti-corruption, pro-Orange Revolution political bloc.

In a field of 41 candidates, most opinion polls give the lead to the 67-year-old incumbent, Oleksandr Omelchenko, a decade in the job and seeking a third term.

Omelchenko leads by 6 percent in most polls, though the latest reported a dead heat. Most gave a margin of error of two percentage points.

A 34-year-old millionaire, 6 feet 8 inches (2.03 meters) tall and weighing 245 pounds (110.6 kilograms), Klitschko cuts an Arnold Schwarzenegger-like figure on the campaign trail.

"I'm not here because I need fame or a job,'' he told a couple of hundred Ukrainians - women in head scarves, autograph-hunting boys, black-clad young men - who turned out to hear him on a cold Saturday morning.

"I want to clear the road for new ideas,'' he said, glancing often at prepared notes.

"I want to work for you.''

Most applauded, but some were just there for the autograph of a national hero.

"I don't know if I'll vote for him - I just wanted him to sign something for my son,'' said Oleh Mashmanov.

Klitschko "is one of the next generation of politicians,'' said analyst Stanislav Belkovsky at a discussion of those poised to replace the Orange Revolution leaders whose appeal is already beginning to weaken in this ex-Soviet republic of 47 million.

"He's young and by 35 will have learned what Omelchenko won't be able to learn by 70,'' said Ivan Saliy of the Kiev-based Institute for Ukraine's Steady Development. He would be "a mayor with room for growth.''

Klitschko retired unexpectedly from boxing in November after hurting his knee in training and pulling out of a defense of his WBC heavyweight champion title.

That left his younger brother and fellow boxer, Wladimir, alone to carry the sporting mantle of "the Klitschko brothers.''

Vitali and Wladimir, sons of a teacher and Air Force officer, rose to fame not only by pounding their opponents, but also by smashing boxing stereotypes.

Both have Ph.D's in physical education and sport from Kiev University, and the elder Klitschko lets it be known that he plays a mean game of chess and relaxes by reading serious literature.

At the height of the 2004 Orange Revolution mass protests, Vitali Klitschko wore a small orange sash on his boxing trunks while pummeling British challenger Danny Williams in Las Vegas, then flew home to take the stage alongside President-to-be Viktor Yushchenko at the height of the revolution.

Yushchenko made Klitschko an adviser. In running for mayor of the city of 4 million he is taking on his longtime friend and former boxing patron.

Omelchenko had been quoted as saying the Klitschko brothers were like sons to him, while Klitschko reportedly declared that he fought better when Omelchenko was at a match.

That may explain why the race is much more sedate than analysts predicted.

"Klitschko is young and energetic. Ukraine needs people like him,'' said supporter Valentyna Rudenko, 60, waving a small Klitschko campaign flag.

"And he lived in America. I want to live like you do in America. He understands what that means.''

But that also works against him. At news conferences, he is often asked how he can run a city that he has spent so little time in recently, having made his principal home abroad.

His preference for speaking Russian rather than Ukrainian also upsets nationalists eager to shake off a long history of Russian domination.

Klitschko says he's learning, and now starts off his speeches in Ukrainian.

He also counters that with his international profile and contact book, he can promote Kiev's image abroad and apply solutions that work in other capitals.

Source: AP

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Sunday, March 12, 2006

Russia Awaiting Ukraine's Election Results

MOSCOW, Russia -- Two key post-Soviet states, Belarus and Ukraine, head into elections this month amid dramatic accusations of planned coups, vote-fixing and outside interference.


But in sharp contrast to the previous cycle of elections in Russia's neighbourhood, which triggered tumultuous pro-democracy revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan and sent the Kremlin into a panic, Moscow appears to be regarding the present scene with icy calm.

"Russia has learned to use its material strengths, like energy supplies, rather than direct political interference as a means of exerting influence over neighbouring states," says Sergei Strokan, an expert with the liberal daily Kommersant in Moscow.

"There's a feeling that things are going Russia's way again, especially in Ukraine, and we can afford to sit back and wait. One year can make a big difference," he says.

The wave of peaceful revolts began with Georgia's Rose Revolution' in 2003, continued with Ukraine's Orange upheaval a year later and culminated last March when pro-democracy protesters overthrew Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev.

"Those revolutions were viewed in Moscow as anti-Russian, and there was real fear that they would spread all over the former Soviet space," says Sergei Kolmakov, vice-president of the Foundation for the Development of Parliamentarism, which is funded by the Russian State Duma.

"Today there are real hopes that the process of 'orange revolutions' has been arrested, and maybe even can be reversed," he says.

In Ukraine, a year of economic decline and disillusionment have propelled the pro-Moscow opposition, headed by the revolution's big loser Viktor Yanukovych, into first place in opinion surveys for parliamentary elections on March 26.

A survey conducted last week by the Institute of Social and Political Psychology in Kyiv, found that Yanukovych's party of Regions leads with 27 per cent support, followed by former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko's Bloc with 19 per cent and President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine movement with 17 per cent.

Former "orange allies", Yushchenko and Tymoshenko - fired as PM last September - have fallen out as the fortunes of the revolution they led have faded.

In an ironic twist, Yanukovych, who was accused of rigging Ukraine's 2004 presidential election in his own favour, claims the authorities are preparing to steal the polls.

"The orange team can only remain in power through massive falsifications, and this is what they are doing," Yanukovych alleged last week.

If upcoming Ukrainian elections bring in a deeply split parliament, that could lead to an extended political crisis that might play into Moscow's hands, experts say.

A January gas blockade by Russia appears to have deepened Ukraine's economic slump while strengthening the hand of the pro-Moscow Yanukovych.

"Unlike the present leadership, we will not build our strategy to the detriment of relations with Russia," Yanukovych said last week.

One reason for Russia's new confidence may be that the "orange wave" faltered as pro-Moscow regimes rebuffed opposition challenges over allegedly rigged elections in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan last year.

Uzbek strongman Islam Karimov bolstered his ties with Russia after crushing a putative "Islamic uprising" in the city of Andijan last May, leaving up to 1,000 civilians dead.

Another is that the three states whose power shifts succeeded - Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan - now face severe popular dissatisfaction as leaders struggle to deliver on their inflated revolutionary pledges.

"Those upsurges were the response of people to bad governance and worsening conditions, and the new leaders that came in have shown themselves unable to offer improvements," says Gennady Chuffrin, deputy director of the official Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow.

In Belarus, which is already a strong ally of Russia, the Kremlin will try to put the best face on long-time President Alexander Lukashenko's almost certain victory in polls slated for March 19, experts say.

Lukashenko, a former collective farm chairman who has maintained a strict, state-controlled economy, can point to healthy growth rates, low unemployment and stable, if meagre, living standards.

But he has closed down most independent media, severely curtailed non-official social movements, and human rights groups say that scores of opposition activists have "disappeared" in recent years.

Two candidates running against Lukashenko, Alexander Kozulin and Alexander Milinkevich, have been virtually barred from the media and have seen their rallies broken up by force.

In a Soviet-style twist, the republic's KGB security service chief has alleged that the opposition is planning an election day coup, to be triggered by false exit polls, allegedly prepared by U.S.-funded non-governmental groups, showing a 53 per cent victory for Milinkevich.

"After that, they planned to start seizing official buildings, and start blocking railway lines with the aim of completely paralyzing the state," KGB chief Stepan Sukhorenko said last week.

Opposition leaders deny the allegations, but say they will bring their supporters into the streets on election day to peacefully protest any perceived vote-rigging.

"These elections are being held under conditions of total falsification and persecution of the opposition," Milinkevich told journalists.

Some Russian experts allege the turmoil in Belarus is overblown by Western press reports, and point to official polls that show up to 80 per cent support for Lukashenko.

"Lukashenko, for all his lack of democracy, has the support of his people and is pursuing sensible policies," insists Mikhail Delyagin, director of the independent Globalization Institute in Moscow.

"He may be the devil incarnate to the West, but Belarussians regard him as their legitimate leader," he says.

Source: CNews

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As 20th Anniversary Nears, Film On Chernobyl Tragedy Demands Attention

TOKYO, Japan -- It's one of the toughest documentaries she's ever made, and that's saying a lot.

Maryann De Leo with Oscar for "Chernobyl Heart"

Past topics have included domestic violence, rape, rebel uprisings and crack addicts. "Chernobyl Heart," Maryann De Leo's Academy Award-winning film that looks at the lives of child survivors of the 1986 nuclear plant disaster has gained international attention and, most recently, won the Excellence Award at the JVC Tokyo Video Festival.

In town for the awards ceremony, De Leo says she's grateful that the film received the attention it did. Though it hasn't solved the ever-worsening situation at Chernobyl, it has made many people--particularly Americans--re-examine the disaster and the tragic effects of radiation poisoning.

"I don't think there was tons of information coming out that got covered in America in the past 10 years," she says. "There's also a lot of controversy about radiation and the effects of radiation."

Released in 2003, the 39-minute film won an Oscar for best documentary short subject the same year.

Ninety-nine percent of Belarus was contaminated when the nuclear reactor exploded on April 26, 1986. Large areas of Ukraine and Russia were affected, and traces of radioactive debris were found as far away as Britain and Sweden.

During the two years that she worked on the film--between 2002 and 2003--De Leo visited Belarus three times, making the rounds of children's hospitals with the Irish non-governmental organization Chernobyl Children's Project. The footage De Leo gathered was shocking. A nurse, the only one on duty in the whole hospital, roughly handles an emaciated child in his crib. Permanently child-sized bodies are severely deformed. Balloon-sized tumors emerge from backs. Legs stick out at all the wrong angles.

According to the United Nations, birth defects in Belarus increased 250 percent after the Chernobyl disaster.

"I really didn't know what exactly I was getting into. I knew from photographs what I expected to see, but I really didn't understand the scope of what was happening there, and what is (still) happening to the sarcophagus and all the radiation that's there," De Leo says.

The sarcophagus, a concrete shell constructed around the Chernobyl power plant to stop radiation leakage, is in dismal shape, De Leo says. The roof, covered in rain water, is slowly sinking. If it collapses, the radiation emitted could make the first Chernobyl disaster seem minor. "We, as a world, should fix this. It's not just Belarus' problem or Ukraine's problem. Everybody should help."

In the course of making the film, De Leo visited the 30-kilometer exclusion zone that surrounds the reactor, exposing herself to dangerous levels of radiation. Afterward, she tested positive for radiation poisoning.

In spite of the danger, De Leo says she didn't worry too much before starting the project. "I was too stupid," she says. "You're there, you're doing it, and the only thing that sort of makes you nervous is that you're there and you're down by the reactor (and) the dosemeter starts to click, faster and faster and faster."

De Leo's relative calm, even complacency, about the threat of radiation is much like the reactions of the local citizens portrayed in the film. "Radiation is invisible, so you just kind of accept that that's the way it is.

It didn't really surprise me that much. It did at first, but not after I was there for a while. It's like the old women (in the documentary) say, 'What are we going to do? Where are we going to go? There's now