MOSCOW, Russia -- Russia's gas war with Ukraine is far from over, as agreements signed last week appear to fudge on the issue of a long-term price, raising the risk of further upheaval along the main route for shipping gas to Europe.
Gazprom headquarters in MoscowThe continuing standoff is starting to undermine Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko's push to lessen his country's dependency on Russia as Gazprom bids to win back Soviet-era control over Ukraine's gas industry as well as all routes to Europe.
Ukrainian and Russian officials signed off on a number of agreements last week to give legal force to the deal reached Jan. 4, which aimed to end fierce brinkmanship over price. After cutting off supplies for two days, Gazprom won an almost twofold increase in what Ukraine pays for gas.
But the details of what was signed late Thursday in Kiev are still murky, and the two sides still appear to disagree on the single biggest issue -- the length of time for which the price is set.
In the meantime, additional protocols are still being discussed, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov said Monday, Interfax reported.
Ukrainian gas monopoly Naftogaz Ukrainy said Friday that the agreements had fixed a price of $95 per 1,000 cubic meters for the next five years. But its co-signees and the sellers in the deal -- executives from the Rosukrenergo middleman, which is owned jointly by Gazprom and unknown beneficiaries -- said that the $95 price could be raised at any time.
"Everything is extremely unpredictable," former Ukrainian First Deputy Foreign Minister Olexander Chaliy said by telephone from Kiev. "This is leading to huge uncertainty. This is all very bad for Ukraine." Chaliy coordinated talks with Russia on gas issues from 1998 to 2004.
The Ukrainian parliament is expected to ask some tough questions and to call for the details to be disclosed on Tuesday in its first session since the agreements were signed last week.
The confusion is adding even more uncertainty to a situation that raised doubts over the security of Russian gas supplies when the two-day cutoff to Ukraine in early January led to cutbacks to Europe, which receives 25 percent of its gas from Russia, mostly via Ukraine.
Just one year after he was brought to power in the Orange Revolution, the standoff is weakening Yushchenko's push to align his country with Europe, and it is weakening his political standing as Ukrainian politics descends into chaos.
The gas deal has become a touchstone issue in the run-up to parliamentary elections on March 26. The elections will usher in a new system under which the winning party will appoint a prime minister with more powers than the president. The ratings of Yushchenko-backed parties have been falling as the ratings of his pro-Russian rival Viktor Yanukovych have been rising on the back of his criticism of the deal.
"This is a big problem for Yushchenko," said Peter Bobrinsky, head of equity sales at Kiev-based investment bank Concorde Capital. "When you swim with the sharks and you start bleeding, you're in trouble."
As it stands, the deal also looks likely to weaken the finances of state-owned Naftogaz Ukrainy. It takes away a lucrative business, the re-export of gas to Europe, and gives away half of one of Naftogaz Ukrainy's main sources of revenue, the domestic gas distribution business, to Rosukrenergo.
The battle comes as a newly resurgent Gazprom, backed by President Vladimir Putin as a symbol of the country's newfound clout as an energy superpower, embarks on a bid to win control of all gas routes to Europe. Its main target is Ukraine.
For Gazprom, and for Russia, the stakes are high in an industry where extracting gas from the ground costs as little as $4 per 1,000 cubic meters, while the sale price can vary widely, from as little as $32 in Russia to $60 in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and upward of $230 in Europe.
But as Gazprom, via Rosukrenergo, bids for control of the vast profits to be won from arbitrage, its sudden desire to make Ukraine pay as much as Europe not only exposed the arbitrary nature of fixing prices in the region, but could spark a new round of price wars and hikes with other key suppliers such as Turkmenistan.
Gazprom's sudden move to breach a five-year contract signed with Ukraine in August 2004 that set the gas price at $50, on top of a decision by Turkmenistan in early 2005 to insist on price hikes also in breach of agreements, is raising questions about the sanctity of contracts in the region, analysts say.
"Agreements have essentially become meaningless," said Michael Lelyveld, a senior adviser to PFC Energy, a Washington-based think tank. "Now, no one trusts anyone, and a deal is just not a deal.
"From an energy security point of view, this is dreadful."
Turkmenistan has become a vital supplier to Ukraine under the New Year's agreement, which lowered the overall cost of gas for Ukraine by mixing in cheaper Central Asian gas. But now any push by Turkmenistan to raise prices again could upset the fragile balance.
Turkmenistan is already reportedly seeking to raise the $65 price Russia currently pays to $85. Under the Ukrainian gas deal, most of the gas Russia buys from Turkmenistan is to be resold to Ukraine via Rosukrenergo.
Russia appears to be seeking to ensure that Ukraine carries the can if Turkmenistan decides to join the drive for higher prices, basically undermining the value of the agreements it only just signed. Rosukrenergo executive Konstantin Chuychenko, who is also the head of Gazprom's legal department, said Friday that Ukraine's $95 price could be raised at any time.
Another Rosukrenergo executive, Oleg Palchikov, said the contract signed by Ukrgaz-Energo, the newly created domestic gas distribution joint venture it owns jointly with Naftogaz Ukrainy, contained no formulas for the gas price, Interfax reported. Instead, he said, the price will be set by market conditions for Central Asian gas. Palchikov could not be reached for additional comment.
Naftogaz, however, insisted that the price had been locked in for five years. "We signed a contract for a price of no more than $95 for five years," said Naftogaz spokesman Dmitry Marunich. "This is the official position of the company."
Neither side would publish the contents of the agreements. Chaliy, however, said Monday that he had obtained a copy of the agreements, and cited one of the provisions as allowing either side to change the price if there was significant change in external market conditions. He declined to make it available to The Moscow Times. "In my view, conditions on the external market can change very rapidly because the difference between the price of Russian and Turkmenistan gas is huge," Chaliy said.
Furthermore, no Central Asian government has signed off on the Ukraine agreement, making it easy for the parameters to change, he said.
But for Ukraine, getting the price locked in for five years looks crucial if Naftogaz is going to stay independent or even survive.
Already, as things stand, Naftogaz Ukrainy has been severely weakened by the deal, opening the way for Gazprom to get greater leverage in the Ukraine gas market.
Naftogaz Under FireEven at $95, its finances will be hit by the huge increase in the price it will pay for its gas. It also stands to be hit by a major loss of revenue from the domestic gas distribution business, a sector worth billions of dollars. Under the deal, Naftogaz Ukrainy has agreed to give half of the market to Rosukrenergo by handing over domestic sales for the 32 bcm to the joint venture, Ukrgaz-Energo.
It could be giving away a lot of potential revenues. A Naftogaz Ukrainy daughter company is expected to bring in $3.2 billion in sales on the domestic market for 2005, Marunich said.
For Gazprom, entering the domestic market is a coup. "This deal gives Gazprom access to a market we never had access to before," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said.
Meanwhile, it is aiming to eradicate Naftogaz Ukrainy as a competitor on the European export market completely. The Ukrainian gas company is expected to make between $300 million and $400 million from the re-export of about 3 bcm to Europe last year, Marunich said. But under the new deal, it will not be allowed to re-export gas to Europe at all. Marunich said Naftogaz Ukrainy was seeking ways to sidestep that provision, but Gazprom appears determined to keep it out.
According to Gazprom, Rosukrenergo will be the only other entity selling gas to Europe, and Gazprom seems unconcerned about that middleman's role. "All Rosukrenergo's exports will be handled through Gazexport," Kupriyanov said, referring to Gazprom's export arm. "There will be no more independent exports by Naftogaz."
If the $95 price is not indeed fixed for five years, Naftogaz Ukrainy could sustain huge losses. While uncertainty hangs over the price it will pay, it has agreed to a transit price of $1.60 per 1,000 cubic meters per 100 kilometers for the next five years for Russian gas crossing its territory into Europe. This price is about two-thirds the amount Georgia, for instance, receives from Gazprom, said Grigory Nemyria, a foreign policy adviser to former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
While international ratings agency Fitch revised its outlook for Naftogaz Ukrainy's finances to "negative" in the wake of the deal, opposition politicians such as Tymoshenko have branded the deal "a betrayal of Ukraine's national interests."
Political BacklashAs Gazprom counts its winnings so far, the gas deal looks likely to be issue No. 1 for next month's parliamentary elections. Tymoshenko has vowed to overturn the deal, while potential disclosures over the murky ownership structure of Rosukrenergo could become a powerful weapon in the parliamentary race.
Even before the standoff, an investigation by security service chief Oleksandr Turchinov, a Tymoshenko ally, into the company's possible links with organized crime over the summer appeared to be part of the calculation over the Cabinet purge in September. Rosukrenergo has denied any such links. "There are questions that sooner or later will come out into the open, and this could lead to a huge corruption scandal," Chaliy said.
As Ukrainian politics appear to be moving back to square one following what appeared to be a decisive bid for independence in the Orange Revolution, Gazprom's price war has drawn a slew of criticism from the West amid fears that Russia is using one of its most strategic resources -- gas -- as a weapon to win political gains and bring Ukraine back into Russia's sphere.
Even Gazprom deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev cannot deny the company's political power. "It is too naive to say that the energy business can be completely separated from foreign policy," Medvedev told The Guardian in an interview last month. "Politics is always there, maybe not directly but indirectly."
Belarus pays just $46.68 per 1,000 cubic meters for its gas in a deal Gazprom says is a reward for allowing it to keep control over the Yamal Europe pipeline that runs through Belarussian territory. Gazprom also is continuing negotiations for a stake in a joint venture to run the rest of the country's gas distribution network, Beltransgaz.
"Belarus is the exception," said Matthew Sagers, director for energy economics, Eurasia and Eastern Europe at Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "Gazprom is doing this to make a point: You be nice to us and we'll be nice to you."
Some analysts like Sagers say it is only natural for Gazprom to want to redraw the price map in the CIS and raise prices in line with European prices, especially as former republics such as Ukraine seek to escape Moscow's orbit. "The same thing happened in Eastern Europe after the collapse of Comecon," Sagers said, referring to the Soviet economic bloc.
"Russia is pushing very hard on an issue that has troubled it since the Soviet collapse: control of transit routes to Europe," PFC Energy's Lelyveld said. "It was a brutal gamble, and to the West it looks like [Putin] overplayed it.
"But it's not clear that he's lost. That's not clear at all."
But other critics say Gazprom has pushed too far, too fast, opening up a can of worms in Ukrainian politics. Many say that no matter who ends up in power after the March elections, the current agreement will be redrawn.
"This agreement is only as good as the value of the paper," Concorde's Bobrinsky said.
For Chaliy, the fight is only just starting. "After the elections, the new government will call for the agreement to be reviewed," he said. "Ukraine has lost the first round, but the gas war isn't over yet."
Source: The Moscow Times