Ukraine's Yushchenko Facing Election Rebuff

KIEV, Ukraine -- Voters look set to deal President Viktor Yushchenko a rebuff in a parliamentary election next Sunday that could tilt their divided country back toward Russia just 16 months after a revolution that appeared to move Ukraine closer to the West.

Viktor Yushchenko
It's a bitter twist for Yushchenko, whose Orange Revolution ushered in the very reforms that are making this contest the most democratic in the former Soviet republic's history.

Now he must contend with polls predicting the winner will be his arch-foe, ex-Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the man whose fraud-marred run for the presidency in 2004 triggered the revolution that along with similar upheavals in the former Soviet states of Georgia and Kyrgyzstan has encouraged democratic restiveness in neighboring Belarus.

Yushchenko's presidency is not at stake in this election, but widespread disappointment with the peaceful revolution's unfulfilled promises of prosperity and an end to corruption has left Yushchenko's camp struggling even to win second place.

The resurgence of Yanukovych, whose political career seemed buried by the Orange Revolution, could reshape the pro-Western politics of this nation of 47 million people stretching between the European Union and Russia.

Most analysts predict Yushchenko will be pragmatic and reach out to Yanukovych to form a coalition, since neither of their parties will get enough votes to form a parliamentary majority.

Proponents of a coalition say it could help bridge Ukraine's deep regional divisions, absorb the 44 percent of voters who didn't support the revolution, and improve Kiev's rocky ties with Moscow.

Critics say it could slow Ukraine's West-ward turn and return power to some officials that the Orange Revolution leaders had vowed to jail.

"If this coalition is formed, what was the point of the revolution?" said former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose acrimonious split with the president last fall shattered the Orange Revolution team.

The charismatic Tymoshenko, whose fiery speeches helped spur the protesters in November 2004, wants the prime minister's job back and has focused her campaign on disillusioned revolution supporters who, analysts say, could give her party a strong showing.

Yushchenko's bloc has countered by spending much of the campaign blaming Tymoshenko for the plunge in annual economic growth from 12 percent to 2 percent, the rise in prices of staples such as meat and sugar, and last year's privatization debacle that scared off foreign investors.

Both insist in public that they want to reunite, but when asked recently to name one good thing Tymoshenko did in office, Yushchenko's face hardened. Seconds ticked by. "I'm composing my emotions so I can restrain them," he said finally, and didn't name one thing.

Publication of polls in the week before an election is barred, and earlier surveys varied dramatically. But most put Yanukovych's bloc in the lead with around 30 percent, followed by Yushchenko's and Tymoshenko's parties running neck-and-neck at 15 percent to 22 percent each.

That could mean Yushchenko having to serve out the 3 1/2 years left in his term with a government working against him, Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov warned voters.

The disarray dismays voters such as Olha Prikhodko, 60, whose home in western Ukraine is adorned with photos of Yushchenko and his five children, and of Tymoshenko, who braids her blonde hair in peasant style.

"All I want is for Yulia (Tymoshenko) and Viktor Andriyovych (Yushchenko) to make peace and reunite," Prikhodko said.

With that peace looking increasingly unlikely, analysts are debating the implications of Yanukovych's possible return.

He draws his support almost exclusively from Ukraine's industrial, Russian-speaking east, and wants Russian, which was dumped as the state language after the country became independent in 1991, to be restored to official status alongside Ukrainian.

He says he supports Ukraine joining the rich and prosperous European Union, but views membership in a trade zone with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan as an immediate priority.

Yanukovych's ally, businessman Alex Kiselev, expects Yanukovych to pursue a policy more balanced between Russia and the West, remarking: "You never bet your whole hand on one horse."

But Yushchenko would retain significant powers to shape policy. The president gets to appoint the foreign and defense ministers, and the current foreign minister, Borys Tarasiuk, a Ukrainian nationalist, is widely expected to stay in the job.

Yushchenko has told journalists he is sure foreign policy won't change, saying that "European-Atlantic integration is in harmony with our national interests."

Source: AP