Ukraine - The Orange Tide Has Turned

KIEV, Ukraine -- Some 15 months on from Ukraine's Orange revolution, the political tide in the country appears to have turned. Viktor Yanukovich, the loser in that revolution, and his Party of the Regions are leading in the polls in the run-up to the parliamentary elections.

Yulia Tymoshenko (L) and Viktor Yushchenko (R) during honeymoon
The heroes of the revolution, current President Viktor Yuschenko and former prime minister Julia Timoshenko, fell out with one another, but a coalition between their two parties would appear to be the only way to keep Mr Yanukovich out of government after the nation has voted.

No less than 45 parties have registered to take part in Ukraine's parliamentary election on 26 March, but no more than eight are expected to pass the barrier - three percent of the popular vote - needed to enter parliament. One thing that is certain is that the main players in last year's Orange revolution will be back in the new parliament.

However, the current leader in the opinion polls is the Party of the Regions, led by Viktor Yanukovich, the politician who was ignominiously thrown out of office for fixing the presidential elections. His party now looks likely to take 25 to 30 percent of the votes in the general election.

Meanwhile, former allies President Yuschenko and ex-prime minister Julia Timoshenko are no longer on speaking terms. They both have their own parties: Mr Yuschenko's Our Ukraine, which is predicted to attract 20 percent of the popular vote, and the Julia Timoshenko bloc, which could take around 17 percent.

Honeymoon over

Political analyst Vadim Karashov doesn't believe this split between the revolutionary heroes is a problem:

"The revolution's honeymoon is over. Just as in a marriage, that's not a permanent situation in a society or a political battle for liberty either. Moreover, Ukraine no longer has the kind of artificial unity that dictators impose. In short, the development of the political fight is a totally normal thing, and in fact characteristic of a democracy."

Mr Karashov says that, in Ukraine, it's not only a matter of a fight between the political parties, but also between the country's regions. Viktor Yanukovich's party is using this to its advantage and is already dominant in the eastern part of the country, which borders Russia.

No to NATO

Mr Karashov says Mr Yanukovich, a man with a criminal past who went on to make a career for himself inside the Communist Party, has skilfully changed to suit the spirit of the times. The concept of 'Europe', which he once rejected totally, is now something which he embraces.

He also wants to introduce Russian as the country's second official language alongside Ukrainian, and his third campaign issue - a firm "No" to the idea of joining NATO - is also popular with a majority of the population. Mr Karashov happens to agree with him on the subject of NATO membership:

"Membership of NATO would drive a wedge through Ukraine. The eastern part, which is highly Russia oriented, would never agree to that. Neutrality is what is needed. However, a non-military orientation towards Europe wouldn't be a problem in fact it could help promote Ukrainian unity."

However, even though Mr Yanukovich may be in tune with popular feeling right now, that doesn't mean his party will automatically be running the show after the elections, because a coalition government will be inevitable. Mr Karashov thinks such a government might also be formed without having to include the Party of the Regions.

The reputations of the heroes of the Orange Revolution have indeed been damaged by the stagnation in economic growth - under former prime minister Timoshenko - and the shady gas deal with Russia - under the leadership of President Yuschenko - but the feud between the former prime minister and the current president could be patched up, especially if that opens up the way to government power once again.

Source: Radio Netherlands