Russia-Backed Opposition Set For Comeback In Ukraine

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine began voting on Sunday in a crucial election that seems certain to see a resurgence of Russia-backed forces and mark a step back from the pro-West ideals that piloted the "Orange Revolution" liberals to power.

Local election commission official prepares a polling station for Sunday's election voting
President Viktor Yushchenko went into the election for a new parliament, well aware that widespread disillusionment over his government's record has left his old Moscow-backed rival, Viktor Yanukovich, poised to bounce back onto the political scene.

Though his own job is not in the balance, Yushchenko knows that, after Sunday's vote, he will have to reach an understanding with the man he humiliated in a presidential poll re-run in December 2004.

The new parliament for whom 37 million electors were voting will, for the first time, have powers to appoint the prime minister, steward of Ukraine's rocky economy.

Pre-poll surveys say Yanukovich's Regions Party is sure to grab the biggest share of the vote. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party lies second with the bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, his one-time ally, in third place.

At stake is the fate of a country of 47 million, whose 'Orange' leaders have been unable to deliver on promises after prizing Ukraine loose from centuries of Russian domination and setting it on a course for joining the European mainstream.

Much of the wild optimism, generated by a revolution that turfed out Yanukovich and the Moscow-backed old guard, has evaporated amid slowing economic growth and infighting in the ranks of the leadership over corruption.

Though now enjoying total freedom of expression, ordinary Ukrainians face unpredictable price hikes in basic foodstuffs.

A maddening bureaucracy, a hangover from Soviet times, frustrates vital parts of daily life such as drawing pensions, securing social care and organizing children's schooling.

Growth slumped to 2.6 percent last year compared with 12.1 percent in 2004. Western investors are anxious not to get their fingers burned in a country whose stability is uncertain.

Forty-five parties are running, but polls show that only from five to seven will clear the 3 percent barrier to win seats in the 450-seat parliament.

Voters stood in long lines in early morning sunshine at some polling stations in Kiev, ready to make their choice on an outsized ballot, nearly one meter in length.

"I came here to vote and I will stand here for as long as it takes to cast my vote," said Anna Petrovna, a 62-year-old pensioner. Gennady, 48, came, saw the massive queue and went away again. "I'll come back later when the crowd has gone down," he said. Polls were due to close at 1900 GMT.

COALITION BARGAINING AHEAD

The only certainty after the vote is that a coalition will be needed. Weeks, and perhaps months, of back-room bargaining lie ahead before the country gets a stable, workable government.

Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov said last week that a new government was likely to be formed only in July.

Not only is Yushchenko threatened by the political comeback of his old nemesis. He is also weakened by constitutional reform that has trimmed his powers and given parliament broader authority including that of appointing the prime minister.

Infighting in the Orange camp over corruption charges that prompted Yushchenko to sack his comrade, Tymoshenko, last September further tarnished the image of the liberal leadership.

Now Yushchenko faces the uncomfortable knowledge that he may either have to team up with his old adversary, Yanukovich, or patch up his quarrel with Tymoshenko.

Either marriage of convenience would carry dangers for Yushchenko.

A 'grand coalition' with Yanukovich's party could require concessions from Yushchenko such as sacrificing more strident pro-Western advocates, like Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk.

Tymoshenko told Yushchenko last week that teaming up with Yanukovich would be "tantamount to al Qaeda joining with the U.S. Republican Party." She warned him such a step could erode his grass-roots power base.

But patching up with the charismatic Tymoshenko also comes at a high price for Yushchenko. She would like her old job of premier back, a difficult step given her interventionist views that clash with Yushchenko's free market values.

Source: Reuters