Poll Shows Ukraine’s Yushchenko May Lose Parliamentary Vote

KIEV, Ukraine -- Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko, swept to power in the Orange Revolution of 2004, may be the loser in this weekend’s parliamentary elections, thwarting plans to forge closer ties with the European Union and NATO, Bloomberg reported Friday citing the latest public opinion poll.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko
Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party ranked second in the last poll conducted before the vote, 13 percentage points behind the Regions Party of Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych, who lost to Yushchenko in a re-run of the disputed presidential election that sparked the November 2004 street protests, supports closer ties with Russia.

Optimism fostered by the revolution has dissipated amid slowing economic growth, accelerating inflation and a split between Yushchenko and his first prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, after allegations of corruption. The president and his erstwhile ally may be forced to overcome their differences, said Ariel Cohen, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

“The revolution-era allies will agree on a coalition in the new parliament as any alliance between Yushchenko with Yanukovych isn’t possible,’’ Cohen said on March 22. ”If Yanukovych becomes prime minister, there is no way Ukraine will enter NATO at all.’’

The Regions Party was backed by 30.4 percent of voters in a Feb. 26-March 6 survey of 2009 eligible voters by the Kiev-based Democratic Initiative Fund. Yushchenko’s party ranked second, with 17.1 percent. Timoshenko’s party had 17 percent support. The survey had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

Polls open at 7 a.m. on March 26 and close at 10 p.m. Local media will issue exit polls, with the first official results expected to be released on March 27. The new parliament may hold its first session two weeks after the results are published.

A cabinet must be formed within 30 days of the first session. If a government isn’t formed in time, Yushchenko has the right to dissolve parliament and call new elections.

Yanukovych, 55, who draws much of his support from the Russian-speaking regions in the east of the country, seeks closer ties with Russia.

Yushchenko, 52, has pledged to sell off more of the country’s biggest companies, such as national phone company VAT Ukrtelecom and win membership in the World Trade Organization, the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

U.S. President George W. Bush signed a measure yesterday giving Ukraine permanent normal trade relations, a prerequisite for that country to join the WTO.

The Bush administration and the Ukraine government worked out terms for joining the WTO earlier this year. Yushchenko was cited by members of the U.S. Congress as a key reason to support the measure. The measure passed Congress earlier this month.

Yuriy Yekhanurov, Ukraine’s acting Prime Minister and leader of Yushchenko’s party, said in a March 19 interview it may take as long as two months to agree on a new prime minister and cabinet.

Ukraine attracted a record $7.86 billion in foreign direct investment 2005 after the sale of the country’s biggest steelmaker and the second-largest bank. Still, the average monthly wage was about $150 in 2005, compared with $300 in Russia, $770 in Poland and $4,500 in Germany, according to Bloomberg data.

Growth of the $80 billion Ukrainian economy slowed to 2.6 percent last year from 12.3 percent the previous year after companies delayed expansion plans following Tymoshenko’s calls for revision of the property rights.

Source: MosNews