Fear Of Violence Ahead Of Belarus Election

MINSK, Belarus -- Belarus votes in a presidential election amid fears of a violent confrontation after the opposition vowed to protest vote-rigging and President Alexander Lukashenko's government threatened to treat demonstrators as "terrorists."

The Chairman of the Belarus KGB Stepan Sukharenko claimed that opponents of Lukashenko planned to stage a "violent coup" under cover of presidential elections on Sunday and warned that street protestors could face the death penalty.
The main opposition candidate, Alexander Milinkevich, has accused Lukashenko of preparing to rig the vote and has called for peaceful protests in the capital Minsk after polls close.

But the ex-Soviet state's KGB security service claims the opposition is planning "a violent coup" and has warned that anyone demonstrating on election day could be charged with "terrorism" and face execution or life imprisonment.

The confrontation in Belarus, sandwiched between the European Union and Russia, is under close scrutiny as part of a wider battle for influence between Moscow and the West following three pro-Western popular revolts in other ex-Soviet republics.

There is a "probability of violence," a Western diplomat in Minsk, who asked not to be named, told AFP.

Lukashenko faces three challengers, but the former collective farm manager's Soviet-style government controls nearly all the media and he is expected to win a third term by a landslide.

Hundreds of outside observers will monitor the election, but any verification of the results will be difficult. No exit polls are planned, several observers have been barred entry, and even independent pre-vote opinion polls are virtually non-existant.

On Friday, Belarussian border guards cancelled the visas of two Polish journalists, and also said they had barred nine Georgian nationals, including members of parliament, who planned to observe the vote.

In an economy relying heavily on Russian subsidies, Lukashenko has won some popularity by paying pensions and state salaries on time. His iron rule has also spared the country's 10 million people the kind of ethnic or politically inspired conflicts seen in other corners of the former Soviet Union.

However, opposition candidates, whom Lukashenko labels "scum," have barely been able to get their point of view across.

The only election posters in Minsk belong to Lukashenko, 51, displaying children or war veterans under the slogan: "We are for a stable Belarus."

Opposition candidates were limited to two half-hour segments of airtime on state television and radio during their campaigns, while the loyal state media lavishes attention on Lukashenko daily.

Dozens of opposition activists have been arrested or detained while distributing leaflets or trying to meet in public with voters.

Opposition newspapers are mostly printed outside of Belarus and are not allowed in news kiosks. Police confiscated 200,000 copies of one such newspaper, Tovarish, on Friday after it was brought in from Russia.

Milinkevich, 58, has accused Lukashenko of "planning total falsification" on Sunday and has urged supporters to flood central Minsk for what he insists will be a peaceful protest.

However, KGB head Stepan Sukhorenko said Thursday that demonstrations will not be allowed because "a violent coup is being prepared." Belarussian state television's news programmes warn darkly of "bloodshed".

A member of the underground opposition youth movement Zubr told AFP on Friday that success depended on enough people daring to go to the streets.

"Clearly if there aren't many of us they'll viciously disperse the demonstration," the activist, Alexander, said.

"I don't know if there'll be a revolution or not," he said. "But if there's no change now then there might not be for another 10 years."

The administration of US President George W. Bush describes Lukashenko's Belarus as "the last dictatorship in Europe" and the European Union on Thursday blasted the "wave of arrests" of opposition activists.

Terry Davis, secretary general of the Council of Europe, a Europe-wide human rights watchdog, said Thursday that the election was taking place "in an atmosphere of fear and intimidation."

However, President Vladimir Putin's Russia and Belarus are close allies and are discussing plans to unite the two countries.

Moscow is also furious at what it sees as Western hands in the series of popular revolts that swept the former Soviet republics of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan between 2003 and 2005.

Ukraine, whose "orange revolution" saw pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko defeat a Moscow-backed candidate in presidential elections, also holds key parliamentary elections next week, with pro-Russian forces apparently poised to make a comeback.

To avoid a run-off vote in Belarus, a candidate must win at least 50 percent of votes cast. At least half of the country's seven million registered voters must take part for the election to be valid.

Source: AFP