Exit Polls Give Belarus Imcumbent Lead

MINSK, Belarus - Exit poll results gave hard-line incumbent Alexander Lukashenko an overwhelming lead in Sunday's presidential vote in the former Soviet republic of Belarus, and the opposition candidate said he would not recognize the results.


A woman with a child casts her ballot at a polling station village of Novy Dvor outside Minsk, Belarus, Sunday, March 19, 2006, with the Belarus State Flag at the back ground .Two Belarusian exit polling organizations whose findings are certain to be regarded by the opposition as badly skewed said initial surveys gave incumbent Alexander Lukashenko more than 80 percent of the votes cast in the presidential election.
The statement by opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich stoked concerns of a violent confrontation between police and opposition supporters. Milinkevich called on supporters to gather in protest despite a ban on election-day gatherings.

Sunday's vote was shadowed by fears of confrontation between the forces of Lukashenko and beleaguered opponents pushing for change after 12 years of his rule. The election campaign was marred by arrests, harassment and terror plot accusations.

Exit poll results gave the hard-line leader more than 80 percent of the vote. The polling was done by two groups that critics say are loyal to Lukashenko, and those figures were certain to fuel opposition claims of fraud and compound Western concern about the authoritarian government's conduct of the election.

An exit poll by the EcooM organization gave Lukashenko 84.2 percent of the vote and Milinkevich just 2 percent, EcooM chief Sergei Musiyenko said.

Exit polling by another group, the Belarusian Committee of Youth Organizations, gave Lukashenko 84.2 percent and Milinkevich 3.1 percent, group representative Alexander Yushkevich said on state television.

Milinkevich said he would not recognize the results and called for a repeat vote.

"These elections will be recognized neither by us nor by democratic countries," Milinkevich told a news conference.

After the mass protests that helped bring opposition leaders to power in three former Soviet republics following disputed elections, Belarus could be the latest country on Russia's periphery to be convulsed by protests and the threat of a forceful state response.

Underlying the election is a struggle for regional influence between Russia and the West, which is seen by Lukashenko's government and its backers in Moscow as a major culprit in the political upheaval in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. Lukashenko accuses the West of plotting a repeat here.

Belarus is one of the few former Soviet republics to remain loyal to the Kremlin.

The Central Elections Commission said on its Web site that 52.7 percent of the 7 million eligible voters had cast ballots by noon, clearing the 50 percent mark needed to make the election valid.

Commission chief Lidiya Yermoshina said voters were resisting "alien influence" seeking "to hinder our election process."

Western countries have forged close ties with the opposition and made no secret of their contempt for the ruler of what Washington calls an outpost of tyranny in Europe. It has condemned the campaign as "seriously flawed and tainted."

After casting his vote at a sports facility in Minsk, Lukashenko dismissed international criticism of the election.

"We in Belarus are conducting the election for ourselves," he said. "What is important is that elections take place in accordance with Belarusian legislation. As for sweeping accusations, I've been hearing them for 10 years. I've already gotten used to them."

Since his first election in 1994, Lukashenko has silenced foes and maintained his grip on power through votes dismissed as illegitimate by the opposition and Western governments. Four opponents disappeared in 1999-2000.

While he is a dictator to his opponents and foreign critics, many Belarusians see the 51-year-old former collective farm manager as having brought stability after the uncertainty that followed the 1991 Soviet collapse.

"He gives us work and a salary," said Igor Nisakov, 52, a plumber who voted for Lukashenko.

Even independent polls said Lukashenko, who has pushed through a referendum scrapping term limits and hinted he plans to stay in office indefinitely, could win a majority of the vote.

Milinkevich called on Belarusians to gather on Oktybrskaya Square in central Minsk after polls close, but he has suggested demonstrators would not try to force their way onto the square if it is heavily guarded by police and would gather elsewhere.

"It will be a peaceful demonstration. We will come out with flowers," Milinkevich said after casting his ballot at a Minsk school. "We will tell people the truth."

The state has mounted a campaign of threats and allegations of violent, foreign-backed overthrow plots that its opponents say is aimed at frightening people off the streets and justifying the potential use of force against protesters. Security was tightened Sunday near the square, with streets blocked to traffic.

The United States and European Union have called on both sides to avoid violence.

Milinkevich, 58, a former physicist, said he aimed to show that change is possible.

"Milinkevich gives us hope that we will pull ourselves out of this swamp," said Nina Karachinskaya, 38, a hairstylist. "The country must go not into the past but the future, and our future is Europe."

Source: AP