Russia's Ukrainian Gamble

KIEV, Ukraine -- For the last 300 years, Ukrainian leaders have established a solid tradition of asking for assistance from their country's giant eastern neighbor in the resolution of all sorts of problems - be it a 17th century war with Poland or last year's presidential elections.

The Kremlin
Russia's endorsement of Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych wasn't a success story, so the Kremlin is now trying to influence Ukrainian policy by ensuring seats for pro-Russian candidates in the Ukrainian parliament.

The stakes in Ukraine's parliamentary elections, scheduled for March 2006, are too high for Russia to sit on the sidelines. Whoever gets a majority will take all - the leading role in legislative decision making as well as the right to appoint a premier and most cabinet members.

Needless to say, people from the Kremlin will not miss a chance to guide the next head of government, especially if they feel that the winds of Ukrainian policy are blowing too westerly.

The Kremlin's best bets

The diversification of political tools of influence has become the Russian president's newest strategy. Political analyst Dmitriy Vydrin says that Vladimir Putin now "does his best to keep in touch with both the governing party and the opposition, no matter what country we are talking about.

For example, when he was in Germany, Putin had a meeting with his good friend Gerhard Schroder. But he also found time to meet opposition CDU leaders. Putin meets with the opposition just in case. The same mechanism works for Ukraine. He maintains ties with President Viktor Yushchenko, current Prime Minister Yury Yekhanurov and former Prime-Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. He also hasn't forgotten about his last endorsement - Yanukovych."

So, who can count on resources from the Kremlin this time around? The view put forward by Russian political specialists that Yushchenko will go to Moscow to ask Putin for financial support is not well founded. First of all, Yushchenko has always been seen as the Kremlin's ideological opponent and the White House's ally. Also, it is Yushchenko who has tried to put an end to the Ukrainian tradition of making political concessions to Moscow in return for economic benefits - a tradition dutifully observed and cherished by former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma.

In addition, personal relations between Yushchenko and Putin can't be called warm. Even if Yushchenko or his team can be said to be looking for financial assistance from Russia, it will likely not come from the Kremlin. The Ukrainian president isn't about to go north with his hat in his hand. However, he will probably do his best to keep his newest rival, Tymoshenko, from getting any foreign benefits.

Neither, though, can Tymoshenko be called the darling of Moscow. Until recently, her presence was more awaited there by Russian prosecutors, who accused her of bribing some of the country's top defense officials during her days in the gas trading business. The Russians kept the case open, and Tymoshenko stayed clear of Moscow, even after being appointed premier.

But soon after her dismissal in September, her relations with Vladimir Putin significantly improved. That same month, she paid a personal visit to the Kremlin, and Russian prosecutors closed the case - at least for now. According to a source from the Russian Presidential Administration, Putin himself initiated the meeting; however, the exact issues discussed remain undisclosed.

The media immediately suggested that Tymoshenko had come to ask for money to battle Yushchenko in the parliamentary race. Just before her visit, Tymoshenko had made a public statement calling for improved relations with Russia. She also mentioned the revival of the controversial Single Economic Space, a post-Soviet trade union that her pro-Western government had largely opposed. At first, this statement was seen as an attempt to garner votes in Eastern Ukraine (where Tymoshenko is from), but it later became obvious that this was a signal to Russia indicating that Yulia was ready to talk.

In examining the possibility of Tymoshenko being funded from Russia, one should bear in mind that Lady Yu has more enemies in the Kremlin than friends. It was only last summer that she faced off against Russian oil companies, which she threatened with price caps on gasoline in Ukraine.

Theoretically, Putin could place a small bet on her, since her ratings are running high and her ambitions to regain the premiership remain undaunted. But at stake is the interest of Russian companies operating in Ukraine, and everyone knows about Tymoshenko's passion for nationalizing already privatized companies.

In short, her trust factor is low. Experience has shown that even when playing in a team, Ms. Yu always manages to play her own game. Thus, Putin would hardly gamble on a horse that would sooner or later throw its rider and run off on its own.

Then there is Viktor Yanukovych, the failed endorsement of the Kremlin from last time around. He may ask for some donations from the Kremlin, as he is viewed as a favorite in Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine. His electoral base is growing with each mistake made by Viktor Yushchenko. But with all this, he has zero chances of forming a majority in the new parliament, even if joined by other like-minded parties.

Any attempt to vote Yanukovych in as Prime Minister will be blocked by both Yushchenko and Tymoshenko. Thus, Putin could be just grooming Yanukovych as a lobbyist for Russian interests in the Parliament. Thus, the financial inflow to his election campaign from the Kremlin will not be that significant.

In the long run, Ukrainian political expert Vadim Karasiov sees the Kremlin's strategy towards Ukraine as one of 'influential non-intervention'. "Russia needs Ukrainian political elites to maintain the confrontational structure and institutional dualism. Thus, (Ukraine's) multi vector policy will be preserved."

At the same time, Russia will not be satisfied with the current geopolitical fragmentation, between east and west, but will be doing its best to ensure that several regional regimes in Ukraine are strengthened. "There will be a sort of political rather than administrative federalization in Ukraine. And Russia will be playing its own game with each regional subject."

In addition to his main hand, the parliamentary elections, Putin will play smaller but no less important hands - local elections. By supporting regional pro-Russian parties and blocs, the Russian leader will create a plethora of viable Russian lobbies across the country, which might turn out to be more effective than a single one in the national parliament.

Source: Ukrainian Observer