Effects of Ukraine Joining EU, NATO: Russian Opinion

MOSCOW, Russia -- Konstantin Kosachev, the chairman of the Russian State Duma for International Affairs said in a recent Ekho Moskvy radio interview he believed that Ukraine's so-called European choice was a debatable issue because Europe doesn't have a single pattern to imitate. He went on to deliberate on which country represents the Western model for him, saying that Japan was a good example in his view.

Kosachev said that "if Ukraine opts for this model, it's all right because Russia has opted for exactly the same model. It's another thing, however, if this choice is determined by geographical conditions when a country needs to turn its back on the East and to face the West in order to resolve domestic problems faster. For instance, the Baltic states made this choice in the early 1990s. They made anti-Russian rhetoric a priority of their foreign policy and this speeded up considerably their rapprochement with the West. They used to complain loudly: Look, we are being mistreated. The Soviet Union mistreated us and now Russia is doing the same. Please take us under your wing soon. I must say that this tactic worked. However, it will hardly work in Ukraine's case because the scale of problems here is totally different."

"I suspect that the Baltic countries, unfortunately, are still clinging to the same tactics out of habit, even if they don't really need it now," Kosachev said.

He continued: "But in Ukraine, I repeat, this tactic will hardly work. I think that Ukraine's honeymoon with the so-called West will end quite soon, and Ukraine will have to make very difficult choices. They could be steeped in electoral rhetoric, pardon me this repetition, but now they will have to be made in real life."

Asked about the first steps of the new Ukrainian leadership, Kosachev said that, " for the time being, they have created more questions than they have given answers. First of all, the government line-up. Whereas the economic bloc looks quite professional, the power-wielding sector is made up of people who got there, first of all, thanks to their political behaviour and democratic beliefs. We remember we had a similar experience in Russia in the late 80s-early 90s when nonprofessionals filled in many key state posts and simply destroyed certain power-wielding structure despite all the good intentions aimed at reforming power-wielding structures as soon as possible. We are still reeling from the consequences."

He continued: "Another answer that still has not been given is about the essence of the government's economic policy. The programme presented by Mrs Tymoshenko [prime minister] to the parliament can be described as 'Faith, Love, Hope'. It contains very many nice-sounding slogans to which any normal person would subscribe but since the devil is in the details and the programme still lacks these details, we can't talk about whether this programme can be implemented at all and, in particular, whether it can be implemented while maintaining the old cooperation ties with Russia. We have no answers to this."

Staying on economic issues, Kosachev went on: "The Ukrainian economy remains in a state of deep post-Soviet crisis. Both the current cabinet and the former Ukrainian authorities admit that the quite high pace of Ukraine's economic development - 8-10 per cent a year, one of the highest in Europe last year - is not leading, in fact, to a real improvement in the people's wellbeing. In other words, real salaries are not growing. According to objective estimates, up to 80 per cent of Ukraine's population lives below the poverty line, whereas in Russia this index has dropped from 40 to slightly over 20 per cent in the last five years. In Ukraine it is still 80."

Kosachev continued: "Second, according to objective analysts, Ukraine's high economic growth depends mainly on Russian capital having entered Ukraine vigorously in the last few years. We can debate why it happened. Perhaps certain reasons lie not in Ukraine but in Russia itself. Nevertheless, it's a fact. And if Ukraine makes the so-called European choice, this trend will change.

"As for Mrs Tymoshenko's anti-oligarchic moves, so far her actions look more not like a struggle against oligarchs, but like a mere redistribution of capital. Some people managed to make a fortune under the previous authorities - incidentally, Tymoshenko herself belongs to the oligarchs who made their fortunes in previous years - whereas others failed to achieve this. And I have an inkling that even if Ukraine's current new leadership is fired by the pure and sincere desire to put things right in the economy, it will remain, this way or another, hostage to the people who have not yet become oligarchs but who want to become one. We have passed this way too. I think that Ukraine will not escape this experience."

Further on, Kosachev commented disparagingly on certain attempts in Ukraine to deny historical and cultural ties between Russia and Ukraine.

He said: "I hope that apart from the obvious historical ties, the economy will remain the mainstay of our relations, about which we spoke so much [just] now. For instance, it's not widely known, but about 80 per cent of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex produces unfinished output, that is, it depends on cooperation with Russia, and accordingly, over 80 per cent of the Russian military-industrial complex is tied to integration with Ukraine." Kosachev urged both countries to preserve their various ties.

Kosachev then returned to the subject of the EU, pointing out: "Ukraine has applied for membership of the European Union. It's a political, not an official application. The European Union has been consistently saying `no' to Ukraine, the last time at the gathering of EU ministers on 31 January. They are ready to develop relations of partnership but the issue of membership is not on the agenda. And then Ukraine has to make up its mind whether it wants to live for the next 10, 20 or more years in a paradoxical regime of suspended pleasure - after all, we in Ukraine will join the EU one day and the very thought of this prospect is sweet to us - or they will have to join the Single Economic Space with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan or other integration groups, because here we are talking not about political declarations, but about quite specific decisions. If Ukraine joins the EU, the rate of import duties will be reduced to zero on the Ukrainian side. At present, let's say, the Russian rate is 7.2 per cent of import duty on goods imported from the EU. And Ukraine will simply have to choose: either to join the Single Economic Space and set the 7.2-per- cent rate of duty on European goods, or to make a kind of proviso to the effect that we will, perhaps, stick temporarily to this principle, but on the whole we will be striving towards zero. This will hardly be acceptable to Russia because this is destroying in principle the Single Economic Space. But this is for Ukraine to decide."

Kosachev then answered a question from listeners about the recent elections in Ukraine, saying: "The fact that foreign money was involved in the Ukrainian elections - American, European, Russian or other money - is beyond any doubt. But I somehow have a feeling that there was no falsification, there was no bribing of voters. In a nutshell, the money put into the Ukrainian project [election] by our rivals on that territory was used more efficiently and professionally and, whether we like it or not, everything remained absolutely within international law. And the ensuing result can't in any way be dismissed by claims that someone has paid for something."

In his final answer to a listener, Kosachev said that "NATO has an open-door policy and, unlike with the EU, it's possible to join the queue and seek membership. Ukraine's new defence minister has already said that, from the military point of view, technically, Ukraine's membership of NATO is possible within two to three years. What is needed is only a political decision. But being a kind of specialist in this field, I am asking myself the following question: What does it spell for us if Ukraine joins NATO in two to three years? It means that, before this deadline, Ukraine must get rid of foreign military bases on its territory because this is a requirement for becoming a NATO member. And what are the foreign military bases? It's Sevastopol [in Crimea] and it is 2017 until which time we have agreed with Ukraine to keep our military base there, for which we are paying very real money. I'm apprehensive of the prospect that Ukraine's theoretical or practical membership of NATO may call into question the future of our naval base in Sevastopol."

The presenter added that "this openness on both sides may prove lethal for the military-industrial complex". Kosachev agreed: "Absolutely! This destroys the economic basis of our cooperation. Also, it brings about a colossal drain of our high technologies which are the pride of our military-industrial complex. We will simply have to start many projects from scratch."